In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2003 Cleveland Indians 

OWAR: 41.6     OWS: 262     OPW%: .500     (81-81)

AWAR: 26.7      AWS: 204     APW%: .420     (68-94)

WARdiff: 14.9                        WSdiff: 58  

The “Original” 2003 Indians came within one game of the American League Central Division title as the White Sox held off the Tribe and the Twins. Jim Thome launched a League-leading 47 moon-shots and drove in a career-best 131 baserunners. He scored 111 runs, drew 111 bases on balls and earned his highest finish in the MVP balloting (fourth). Manny Ramirez scorched the opposition with a .325 BA, 37 wallops, 104 ribbies, 117 runs scored and a League-best OBP of .427. Richie Sexson (.272/45/124) matched his career-best in home runs and fell one short of his top RBI mark. Brian S. Giles suffered a drop in production from his previous four campaigns but still managed to belt 20 long balls while posting a .299 BA.  “The Mayor” Sean Casey hit at a .291 clip but otherwise failed to deliver the power output expected from a first baseman. The lineup for the “Actual” 2003 Indians featured Milton Bradley (.321/10/56) and rookie outfielder Jody Gerut (.279/22/75).

Omar Vizquel (61^st-SS) and Ellis Burks (77^th-CF) placed in the top 100 player rankings according to “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract among members of the “Actuals” roster.

  Original 2003 Indians                               Actual 2003 Indians

STARTING LINEUP	POS	OWAR	OWS	STARTING LINEUP	POS	AWAR	AWS
Manny Ramirez	LF	3.63	26.99	Matt Lawton	LF	1.07	9.65
Brian S. Giles	CF/LF	5.09	24.55	Milton Bradley	CF	4.21	18.53
Dustan Mohr	RF	0.52	7.06	Jody Gerut	RF	1.98	14.24
Richie Sexson	DH/1B	4.13	24.93	Travis Hafner	DH	0.8	7.4
Jim Thome	1B	4.56	28.67	Ben Broussard	1B	0.59	8.77
John McDonald	2B	-0.43	2.04	Brandon Phillips	2B	-1.22	4.28
Jhonny Peralta	SS	0.16	4.22	Omar Vizquel	SS	0.11	5.25
Russell Branyan	3B	0.44	5.82	Casey Blake	3B	0.51	11.48
Einar Diaz	C	0.63	4.75	Josh Bard	C	0.81	6.35
BENCH	POS	AWAR	AWS	BENCH	POS	AWAR	AWS
Sean Casey	1B	-0.27	14.88	Coco Crisp	CF	-0.17	6.51
David Bell	3B	0.12	4.42	Shane Spencer	RF	0.69	4.99
Kelly Stinnett	C	-0.07	3.49	Ellis Burks	DH	0.38	4.76
Victor Martinez	C	0.27	3.36	Jhonny Peralta	SS	0.16	4.22
Damian Jackson	2B	-0.44	1.85	Ryan Ludwick	RF	0.56	3.94
Marco Scutaro	2B	0.19	1.81	Victor Martinez	C	0.27	3.36
Julius Matos	3B	-0.14	0.6	Alex Escobar	RF	0.51	3.01
Zach Sorensen	2B	-0.28	0.32	Tim Laker	C	-0.1	2.71
Mike Edwards	DH	0.03	0.19	John McDonald	2B	-0.43	2.04
Herbert Perry	1B	-0.3	0.07	Angel Santos	2B	0.05	1.47
Mark Budzinski	CF	-0.09	0.03	Chris Magruder	LF	0.32	1.42
Mike Glavine	1B	-0.09	0.01	Ricky Gutierrez	SS	-0.08	0.79
Mitch Meluskey	–	-0.04	0	Greg LaRocca	3B	0.06	0.39
				Zach Sorensen	2B	-0.28	0.32
				Bill Selby	3B	-0.5	0.3
				Karim Garcia	RF	-0.51	0.22

Bartolo Colon (15-13, 3.87) fashioned a WHIP of 1.198 and topped the American League with 9 complete games. Six-time All-Star lefthander C.C. Sabathia (13-9, 3.60) appeared in his first Mid-Summer Classic. David Riske notched 8 saves and a 0.964 WHIP along with a personal-best 2.29 ERA. Danys Baez (3.81, 25 SV) and Julian Tavarez (3.60, 11 SV) bolstered the relief corps.

  Original 2003 Indians                            Actual 2003 Indians  

ROTATION	POS	OWAR	OWS	ROTATION	POS	AWAR	AWS
Bartolo Colon	SP	5.23	17.34	CC Sabathia	SP	3.86	12.89
CC Sabathia	SP	3.86	12.89	Brian Anderson	SP	0.32	6.67
Jason Davis	SP	0.07	5.13	Jake Westbrook	SP	1.12	5.8
Danny Graves	SP	-0.4	3.4	Jason Davis	SP	0.07	5.13
Jason Stanford	SP	1.03	2.85	Billy Traber	SP	0.05	2.96
BULLPEN	POS	OWAR	OWS	BULLPEN	POS	OWAR	OWS
David Riske	RP	2.07	9.84	David Riske	RP	2.07	9.84
Julian Tavarez	RP	0.52	9.19	Danys Baez	RP	0.28	8.61
Danys Baez	RP	0.28	8.61	Jack Cressend	RP	0.95	4.05
Curt Leskanic	RP	1.72	8.09	Rafael Betancourt	RP	0.86	3.92
Paul Shuey	RP	0.55	6.62	Jason Boyd	RP	0.18	3.19
Steve Kline	RP	0.44	5.05	Jason Stanford	SP	1.03	2.85
Alan Embree	RP	0.68	4.91	Terry Mulholland	RP	-0.62	2.71
Mike Matthews	RP	-0.18	2.91	Cliff Lee	SP	0.42	2.69
Jaret Wright	RP	-1.84	1.31	Jose Santiago	RP	0.51	2.28
Travis Driskill	RP	-0.95	0.64	Dan Miceli	RP	0.38	1.54
Charles Nagy	RP	-0.11	0.17	Carl Sadler	RP	0.29	0.92
Brian Tallet	SP	-0.23	0.14	Ricardo Rodriguez	SP	-0.62	0.59
Mike Bacsik	SP	-0.86	0	David Lee	RP	-0.01	0.51
Ryan Drese	SP	-0.85	0	Jason Bere	SP	0.11	0.32
Tim Drew	SW	-0.58	0	Brian Tallet	SP	-0.23	0.14
Alex Herrera	RP	-0.35	0	Nick Bierbrodt	RP	-0.19	0
Albie Lopez	RP	-1.49	0	David Cortes	RP	-0.32	0
Robert Person	RP	-0.29	0	Chad Durbin	SP	-0.57	0
Rudy Seanez	RP	-0.17	0	Dave Elder	RP	-0.37	0
Matt White	RP	-0.93	0	Alex Herrera	RP	-0.35	0
				Aaron Myette	RP	-0.5	0
				Chad Paronto	RP	-0.44	0
				Jason Phillips	RP	-0.24	0
				Jerrod Riggan	RP	-0.19	0

Notable Transactions

Jim Thome 

October 28, 2002: Granted Free Agency.

December 6, 2002: Signed as a Free Agent with the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Manny Ramirez

October 27, 2000: Granted Free Agency.

December 19, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the Boston Red Sox.

Richie Sexson

July 28, 2000: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with a player to be named later, Kane Davis and Paul Rigdon to the Milwaukee Brewers for Jason Bere, Bob Wickman and Steve Woodard. The Cleveland Indians sent Marco Scutaro (August 30, 2000) to the Milwaukee Brewers to complete the trade. 

Brian S. Giles

November 18, 1998: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Ricardo Rincon.

Bartolo Colon 

June 27, 2002: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with Tim Drew to the Montreal Expos for Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Lee Stevens. 

Sean Casey 

March 30, 1998: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Cincinnati Reds for Dave Burba.

Honorable Mention

The 1941 Cleveland Indians 

OWAR: 43.0     OWS: 267     OPW%: .545     (84-70)

AWAR: 34.9      AWS: 225     APW%: .487     (75-79)

WARdiff: 8.1                        WSdiff: 42  

Engaged in heated combat with the Red Sox and Yankees down the stretch in ’41, the Tribe emerged in third place, four games behind Boston. Thornton Lee (22-11, 2.37) topped the Junior Circuit in ERA, WHIP (1.165) and complete games (30) to merit his lone All-Star invitation. Bob Feller (25-13, 3.15) led the League in victories, starts (40), shutouts (6) and innings pitched (343). “Rapid Robert” paced the AL in strikeouts for the fourth consecutive season and placed third in the MVP voting. Jeff Heath (.340/24/123) established career-highs in base hits (199), triples (20), RBI and stolen bases (18) while making his first All-Star appearance. “Old Reliable” Tommy Henrich clubbed a career-best 31 round-trippers and registered 106 tallies. Ken Keltner rapped 31 doubles, 13 triples and 23 circuit clouts. “Old Shufflefoot” Lou Boudreau socked 45 two-baggers and scored 95 runs.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2010 Orioles

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive