In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony La Russa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1985 Montreal Expos 

OWAR: 55.8     OWS: 320     OPW%: .556     (90-72)

AWAR: 37.5      AWS: 252     APW%: .522     (84-77)

WARdiff: 18.3                        WSdiff: 68  

The “Original” 1985 Expos claimed the National League Eastern division title with a 90-victory campaign, outpacing the Mets by five games. Tim “Rock” Raines swiped 70 bases in 79 attempts, registered 115 runs, batted .320 and set a career-high with 13 triples. Gary “Kid” Carter (.281/32/100) established personal-bests in home runs and placed sixth in the NL MVP balloting. Tim Wallach clubbed 36 doubles and merited the first of three Gold Glove Awards at the hot corner. Andre “The Hawk” Dawson swatted 23 big-flies and knocked in 91 baserunners. Vance Law ripped 30 two-base hits for the “Actuals”.

Gary Carter (catcher) and Tim Raines (left field) ranked eight at their respective positions in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Expos teammates chronicled in the “NBJHBA” top 100 ratings include Andre Dawson (19^th-RF), Tim Wallach (27^th-3B), Andres Galarraga (42^nd-1B), Larry Parrish (53^rd-3B) and Tony Phillips (66^th-RF). “Actuals” first baseman Dan Driessen ranked seventy-eighth while third-sacker Hubie Brooks placed eighty-ninth.

  Original 1985 Expos                                  Actual 1985 Expos

STARTING LINEUP	POS	OWAR	OWS	STARTING LINEUP	POS	AWAR	AWS
Tim Raines	LF	6.31	35.45	Tim Raines	LF	6.31	35.45
Andre Dawson	CF/RF	1.61	16.14	Mitch Webster	CF	1.55	9.53
Larry Parrish	RF	-0.95	5.78	Andre Dawson	RF	1.61	16.14
Terry Francona	1B	0.1	6.06	Dan Driessen	1B	-0.36	7.83
Tony Bernazard	2B	2.86	16.58	Vance Law	2B	3.63	24.03
				Hubie Brooks	SS	1.04	15.12
Tim Wallach	3B	5.06	23.24	Tim Wallach	3B	5.06	23.24
Gary Carter	C	5.05	33.5	Mike R. Fitzgerald	C	-0.05	3.74
BENCH	POS	OWAR	OWS	BENCH	POS	AWAR	AWS
Gary Roenicke	LF	0.82	7.85	Herm Winningham	CF	0.05	8.24
Tony Phillips	3B	1.23	6.59	Terry Francona	1B	0.1	6.06
Bryan Little	2B	1.26	6.56	U. L. Washington	2B	0.17	4.91
Mike Stenhouse	DH	-0.23	2.97	Sal Butera	C	-0.11	1.71
Al Newman	2B	-0.11	0.53	Jim Wohlford	RF	-0.4	1.18
Andres Galarraga	1B	-0.57	0.37	Fred Manrique	2B	0.23	1.17
Razor Shines	1B	-0.59	0.19	Scot Thompson	1B	0.02	0.62
Ellis Valentine	RF	-0.22	0.06	Al Newman	2B	-0.11	0.53
Roy Johnson	RF	-0.07	0	Miguel Dilone	CF	-0.57	0.51
				Mike O’Berry	C	0.04	0.41
				Andres Galarraga	1B	-0.57	0.37
				Skeeter Barnes	3B	-0.31	0.29
				Steve Nicosia	C	-0.45	0.28
				Razor Shines	1B	-0.59	0.19
				Doug Frobel	RF	-0.15	0.11
				Doug Flynn	2B	-0.06	0.04
				Roy Johnson	RF	-0.07	0
				Ned Yost	C	-0.14	0

Bob James locked down the late innings for Montreal, saving 32 contests with a 2.13 ERA and a 1.027 WHIP in 69 appearances. Shane Rawley fashioned a 13-8 record with a 3.31 ERA at the top of the rotation. Fellow portsider Joe Hesketh posted a 2.49 ERA to complement a 10-5 mark during his rookie campaign. Bryn Smith (18-5, 2.91) paced the “Actuals” in wins and WHIP (1.052). Tim Burke (9-4, 2.39) and Jeff Reardon (3.18, 41 SV) anchored the “Actuals” bullpen.

  Original 1985 Expos                                Actual 1985 Expos 

ROTATION	POS	OWAR	OWS	ROTATION	POS	AWAR	AWS
Shane Rawley	SP	3.23	12.82	Bryn Smith	SP	2.93	15.35
Joe Hesketh	SP	2.61	11.66	Joe Hesketh	SP	2.61	11.66
Bill Gullickson	SP	1.27	9.48	Bill Gullickson	SP	1.27	9.48
Scott Sanderson	SP	2.16	8.88	David Palmer	SP	0.64	5.75
David Palmer	SP	0.64	5.75	Floyd Youmans	SP	1.18	5.43
BULLPEN	POS	OWAR	OWS	BULLPEN	POS	AWAR	AWS
Bob James	RP	3.39	21.93	Tim Burke	RP	2.64	13.11
Randy St. Claire	RP	-0.07	3.2	Jeff Reardon	RP	1.14	12.22
Tom Gorman	RP	-0.72	0.51	Gary Lucas	RP	0.1	4.47
Rick Grapenthin	RP	-0.73	0.22	Bert Roberge	RP	0.27	3.9
Jack O’Connor	RP	-0.36	0.01	Randy St. Claire	RP	-0.07	3.2
Dan Schatzeder	SP	0.07	3.6	Dan Schatzeder	SP	0.07	3.6
John Dopson	SP	-0.95	0	Mickey Mahler	SP	0.23	1.9
Dale Murray	RP	-0.34	0	Rick Grapenthin	RP	-0.73	0.22
Steve Rogers	SP	-0.65	0	Jack O’Connor	RP	-0.36	0.01
				John Dopson	SP	-0.95	0
				Ed Glynn	RP	-0.41	0
				Bill Laskey	SP	-1.81	0
				Steve Rogers	SP	-0.65	0

 Notable Transactions

Gary Carter 

December 10, 1984: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the New York Mets for Hubie Brooks, Mike Fitzgerald, Herm Winningham and Floyd Youmans. 

Bob James 

June 10, 1982: Sent to the Detroit Tigers by the Montreal Expos as part of a conditional deal.

May 4, 1983: Returned by the Detroit Tigers to the Montreal Expos as part of a conditional deal.

December 7, 1984: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the Chicago White Sox for Vance Law.

Tony Bernazard

December 12, 1980: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the Chicago White Sox for Rich Wortham.

June 15, 1983: Traded by the Chicago White Sox to the Seattle Mariners for Julio Cruz.

December 7, 1983: Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Cleveland Indians for Jack Perconte and Gorman Thomas.

Shane Rawley

May 27, 1977: the Montreal Expos sent Shane Rawley and Angel Torres to the Cincinnati Reds to complete an earlier deal made on May 21, 1977. May 21, 1977: The Montreal Expos sent players to be named later to the Cincinnati Reds for Santo Alcala.

December 9, 1977: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the Seattle Mariners for Dave Collins.

April 1, 1982: Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the New York Yankees for a player to be named later, Bill Caudill and Gene Nelson. The New York Yankees sent Bobby Brown (April 6, 1982) to the Seattle Mariners to complete the trade.

June 30, 1984: Traded by the New York Yankees to the Philadelphia Phillies for Marty Bystrom and Keith Hughes.

 

Honorable Mention

 

The 2008 Washington Nationals 

OWAR: 37.2     OWS: 243     OPW%: .500     (81-81)

AWAR: 18.3      AWS: 177     APW%: .366     (59-102)

WARdiff: 18.9                        WSdiff: 64  

The “Original” 2008 Nationals played .500 ball and finished fourth in the division. The “Actuals” dreadful results placed them 22 games off the “Originals” pace. Grady Sizemore (.268/33/90) produced a 30-30 season, successfully stealing 38 bags in 43 attempts while eclipsing the century mark in runs scored for the fourth straight season. Left fielder Jason Bay (.286/31/101) tallied 111 runs and drilled 35 doubles. Vladimir Guerrero (.303/27/91) topped the .300 mark for the 12^th consecutive year and supplied 31 two-base knocks. Milton Bradley (.321/22/77) clubbed 32 doubles, paced the circuit with a .436 OBP and merited his lone All-Star appearance. Orlando Cabrera contributed 33 two-baggers while double-play partner Brandon Phillips blasted 21 dingers and pilfered 23 bases. Cliff P. Lee (22-3, 2.54) achieved Cy Young honors and led the League in ERA. Armando Galarraga (13-7, 3.73) finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year balloting.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2008 Mariners

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive