In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

 

Assessment

The 1979 New York Mets 

OWAR: 50.7     OWS: 262     OPW%: .479     (78-84)

AWAR: 24.8      AWS: 188     APW%: .389     (63-99)

WARdiff: 25.9                        WSdiff: 74  

The “Original” 1979 Mets ended the season in the cellar, yet the club outpaced the “Actuals” by fifteen victories! Ken Singleton earned runner-up status in the MVP balloting on the strength of a .295 BA with 35 circuit clouts and 111 ribbies. Lee “Maz” Mazzilli (.303/15/79) nabbed 34 bags and merited his lone All-Star appearance. Tim Foli set personal-bests in batting average (.288), base hits, runs and RBI. John “The Hammer” Milner contributed a .276 BA with 16 jacks while splitting time between left field and first base. “Actuals” right fielder Joel Youngblood posted a .275 BA and raked 37 doubles. Richie “The Gravedigger” Hebner added 25 two-base knocks and drove in 79 baserunners.

Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan rated sixth and twenty-fourth, respectively, among pitchers in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Mets teammates registered in the “NBJHBA” top 100 ratings include Ken Singleton (18th-RF) Paul Blair (66th-CF) and Bud Harrelson (88th-SS). “Actuals” third baseman Richie Hebner ranked fifty-sixth while center fielder Jose Cardenal placed seventh-sixth.

  Original 1979 Mets                                  Actual 1979 Mets

STARTING LINEUP	POS	OWAR	OWS	STARTING LINEUP	POS	AWAR	AWS
John Milner	LF	1.8	13.03	Steve Henderson	LF	2.18	11.79
Lee Mazzilli	CF	3.56	24.14	Lee Mazzilli	CF	3.56	24.14
Ken Singleton	RF	4.49	31.68	Joel Youngblood	RF	3.75	17.31
Mike Jorgensen	1B	-0.09	2.56	Willie Montanez	1B	-1.71	2.45
Bud Harrelson	2B	0.55	3.1	Doug Flynn	2B	-1.92	6.85
Tim Foli	SS	1.88	17.19	Frank Taveras	SS	-0.83	11.83
Ted Martinez	3B	-0.34	1.38	Richie Hebner	3B	2.32	14.43
Alex Trevino	C	0.36	5.04	John Stearns	C	1.28	10.89
BENCH	POS	OWAR	OWS	BENCH	POS	AWAR	AWS
Joe Nolan	C	-0.02	3.57	Alex Trevino	C	0.36	5.04
Jerry Morales	RF	-1.96	3.43	Elliott Maddox	RF	0.67	4.88
Duffy Dyer	C	0.11	3.21	Dan Norman	RF	-0.1	2.22
Benny Ayala	LF	0.3	3.01	Jose Cardenal	RF	0.36	1.99
Paul Blair	CF	-1.12	1.41	Ron Hodges	C	-0.24	1.14
Ron Hodges	C	-0.24	1.14	Ed Kranepool	1B	-0.58	0.86
Ed Kranepool	1B	-0.58	0.86	Kelvin Chapman	2B	-0.7	0.67
Kelvin Chapman	2B	-0.7	0.67	Gil Flores	RF	-0.36	0.34
Bruce Boisclair	RF	-0.88	0.29	Bruce Boisclair	RF	-0.88	0.29
Ike Hampton	1B	0.03	0.19	Sergio Ferrer	3B	-0.1	0.16
Roy Staiger	3B	0.06	0.17	Tim Foli	SS	-0.08	0.1

Jerry Koosman reached the 20-win plateau for the second time in his career. Tom “The Franchise” Seaver (16-6, 3.14) led the National League with 5 shutouts and finished fourth in the Cy Young Award balloting. Nino Espinosa delivered 14 victories with a 3.65 ERA. Nolan Ryan aka the “Ryan Express” tallied 16 victories and struck out 223 batsmen. Craig Swan augmented the “Originals” and “Actuals” rotation with 14 wins and a 3.29 ERA after securing the National League ERA title during the previous campaign.

  Original 1979 Mets                                  Actual 1979 Mets 

ROTATION	POS	OWAR	OWS	ROTATION	POS	AWAR	AWS
Jerry Koosman	SP	6.06	22.76	Craig Swan	SP	3	15.36
Tom Seaver	SP	3.68	16.04	Kevin Kobel	SP	1.16	7.87
Craig Swan	SP	3	15.36	Pete Falcone	SP	0.49	6.15
Nino Espinosa	SP	2.15	14.6	Tom Hausman	SP	1.69	5.95
Nolan Ryan	SP	2.88	13.52	Andy Hassler	SP	0.54	4.87
BULLPEN	POS	OWAR	OWS	BULLPEN	POS	AWAR	AWS
Neil Allen	RP	0.19	6.26	Skip Lockwood	RP	1.89	6.86
Tug McGraw	RP	-1.53	4.62	Neil Allen	RP	0.19	6.26
Jeff Reardon	RP	0.29	2.33	Ed Glynn	RP	0.67	4.5
Roy Lee Jackson	RP	0.43	1.77	Jeff Reardon	RP	0.29	2.33
Dwight Bernard	RP	-0.51	0.44	Dale Murray	RP	-1.34	1.87
Steve Renko	SP	2.68	11.18	Pat Zachry	SP	0.28	2.94
Jim Bibby	SP	2.85	11.06	Juan Berenguer	SP	0.35	1.84
Ed Figueroa	SP	0.98	5.38	Roy Lee Jackson	RP	0.43	1.77
Jon Matlack	SP	0.81	4.31	Ray Burris	SP	0.13	0.85
Juan Berenguer	SP	0.35	1.84	Wayne Twitchell	RP	-1.31	0.84
John Pacella	SP	0.05	0.33	Jesse Orosco	RP	-0.33	0.57
Kim Seaman	RP	0.05	0.29	Dwight Bernard	RP	-0.51	0.44
Jackson Todd	RP	-0.64	0.01	John Pacella	SP	0.05	0.33
Mike Scott	SP	-0.83	0	Dock Ellis	SP	-1.6	0
				Mike Scott	SP	-0.83	0

 Notable Transactions

Ken Singleton 

April 5, 1972: Traded by the New York Mets with Tim Foli and Mike Jorgensen to the Montreal Expos for Rusty Staub.

December 4, 1974: Traded by the Montreal Expos with Mike Torrez to the Baltimore Orioles for Bill Kirkpatrick (minors), Rich Coggins and Dave McNally. 

Jerry Koosman 

December 8, 1978: Traded by the New York Mets to the Minnesota Twins for a player to be named later and Greg Field (minors). The Minnesota Twins sent Jesse Orosco (February 7, 1979) to the New York Mets to complete the trade. 

Tom Seaver

June 15, 1977: Traded by the New York Mets to the Cincinnati Reds for Doug Flynn, Steve Henderson, Dan Norman and Pat Zachry.

Nino Espinosa

March 27, 1979: Traded by the New York Mets to the Philadelphia Phillies for Richie Hebner and Jose Moreno.

Nolan Ryan

December 10, 1971: Traded by the New York Mets with Frank Estrada, Don Rose and Leroy Stanton to the California Angels for Jim Fregosi.

Honorable Mention

The 2012 New York Mets 

OWAR: 27.7     OWS: 262     OPW%: .492     (80-82)

AWAR: 24.1       AWS: 221      APW%: .457    (74-88)

WARdiff: 3.6                        WSdiff: 41

The “Original” 2012 Mets placed third, fourteen games in arrears to the Nationals. David “Captain America” Wright (.306/21/93) raked 41 two-base hits and received his sixth All-Star invite. Angel “Crazy Horse” Pagan topped the circuit with 15 triples and set career-highs with 38 two-baggers and 95 runs scored. Jose B. Reyes swiped 40 bags and rapped 37 doubles while double-play partner Daniel Murphy contributed a .291 BA with 40 two-base knocks. Nelson R. Cruz nailed 45 doubles and jacked 24 round-trippers. First-sacker Ike B. Davis established personal-bests with 32 taters and 90 ribbies. A.J. Burnett paced the starting staff with 16 victories along with a 3.51 ERA and 180 strikeouts.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 2013 Marlins

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive