Gerrit Cole Is an Ace

This year during the offseason, I would occasionally search “Gerrit Cole” on Twitter, mainly to ensure he was having an injury-free winter. The recurring theme of what I saw was the argument of whether or not Cole is an ace. I’m here to tell you that he is — there’s just no question about it. I get it: he can be injury-prone, as outside of his 2015 season Cole hasn’t pitched more than 138 major-league innings in a season. But about that 2015 season; how many pitchers in the last 50 years have gone at least 200 inning with 200 strikeouts in their age-24 season? Just 27. Some others on that list include the likes of Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, and Tom Seaver. Of that list of 27, Cole’s ERA of 2.60 was matched by only 6. Okay, yes, it also included Carlos Zambrano, Kevin Millwood, and Brett Myers, but the impressive names on there significantly outweigh the not-so-much impressive names. Not convinced yet? I’ll go on.

I think everyone can agree that Gerrit Cole’s 2016 did not quite meet expectations, as he pitched 116 innings with 7.60 K’s per 9 and an ERA of 3.88. This is where those injury concerns get brought up, as he fought right-side inflammation right out of the gates, and then elbow tightness twice throughout the season, eventually ending it early. Watching Cole last year, it looked like he never got into a groove. He wasn’t able to fully prepare due to the spring-training injury, and it showed in his career-high 2.79 BB per 9, after sporting a 1.90 in 2015. As for the elbow injuries, there was never any structural damage; it was just sore. I believe the side injury was the reason for this, because for pitchers, the core is very important. Cole put more pressure on his arm because he was having trouble with his core, which in turn probably threw off his delivery a bit, which would explain the control issues. The velocity was always there, as he maintained 95.2 mph on the heater, but the control was not. The message of this 2016 injury section is that these injuries weren’t a chronic issue. It was a side injury that led to an arm injury that made up one frustrating season.

Now on to 2017! Cole’s fresh start, as he entered spring training healthy and on time. The Pirates understandably took it easy on him, bringing him along a bit slower than his peers, and he made it through spring healthy and ready for opening day in Boston. I was excited to see how he would perform, getting a tough test for his first game back, and I was relatively pleased with what I saw. He was hitting upper 90s with his fastball and cruised through the first four innings, holding the Boston lineup scoreless. Things went south from there, as Cole got hit hard with two outs in the 5th, and he gave up five runs, leaving him with a 9.00 ERA after start #1. Stay with me here because it’s the next five starts that I really want to share with you.

In those, Cole has pitched 31 innings, striking out 32 (9.3 K/9), and walking six (1.7 BB/9), with a 2.61 ERA. Do those numbers sound familiar? In case you weren’t paying attention earlier, I’ll tell you those are right in line with those 2015 numbers. Yes, he got hit hard opening day, but after that he’s allowing just 26.1% hard hits, compared to 29.5% in 2015. I know the small sample size and all, but one could argue for Cole to actually improve on his overall numbers this year, as he is becoming a more complete pitcher entering his age-26 season. He’s been focusing on his change, throwing it 12.5% of the time, compared to his previous career-high of 5.0%, and hitters are only hitting .111 off the pitch, with no extra-base hits. We’ve all known about Cole’s elite fastball, and with a serviceable change, he can now keep hitters off that heater.

The one stat that isn’t on par with those ace-like 2015 numbers is his homer rate. So far in 2017, he has a 1.50 HR/9, which is more than triple his 2015 rate, and more than double his career rate. Cole’s fly-ball rate has increased 10 points to 39%, which could be an explanation, but his HR/FB% is 15.4, once again almost double his career numbers. These numbers should stabilize closer to career norms as the season continues, especially if Cole continues to pitch the way he is with his great control. The health is the big issue people will continue to argue, but in the modern era where fewer pitchers are hitting those 200IP and 200K marks, the 26-year-old Cole is just entering his prime, and has already produced an ace-like season before. The way he looks this year, I’m telling you he *IS* an ace that still hasn’t reached his ceiling.

 

All stats are from FanGraphs.com