Drafting an Injured Hunter Pence

Hunter Pence has been one of baseball’s most durable players since his first full-time season in 2008. Over the last seven years, Pence has never played fewer than 154 games, and he’s coming off a three-year stretch of 160, 162, and 162 games. He is the active leader in consecutive games played, with 382.

Unfortunately, that streak will end when the Giants open their regular season on April 6^th in Arizona. Pence was hit by a pitch in a spring training game on Thursday and will be out six-to-eight weeks with a broken arm. Of course, in the real world, the important thing for Pence and the Giants is that he heals quickly and gets back on the field as soon as possible. In the fantasy baseball world, it’s natural to wonder how the injury affects his value on draft day.

One of the reasons Pence has been valuable in fantasy baseball over the years has been his durability. He has played almost every day for the last seven seasons, and this has allowed him to accumulate counting stats even if his rate stats are not elite. He’s not a 30-homer guy, rarely a 20-steals guy, and has only hit over .300 once since 2008. He’ll generally score 80- to 90 runs and drive in around 90. He’s scored 100 or more runs one time. He’s driven in 100 or more runs one time.

Consider his average season since 2008:

159 G, 671 PA, 172 H, 88 R, 24 HR, 89 RBI, 13 SB, .280 AVG

That’s solid across-the-board production but without any of the big, round numbers that are so exciting to see (100 runs, 30 homers, 100 RBI, 20 steals, .300 average). An interesting comparison is Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez is an elite player, when healthy. When he’s in the lineup, he’s a top 5 guy. Unfortunately, Gonzalez is often not healthy.

Consider the average season for Carlos Gonzalez since 2008:

109 G, 444 PA, 118 H, 69 R, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 16 SB, .294 AVG

Now let’s look at both Pence and Gonzalez since 2008, per 162 games played:

162 G, 686 PA, 176 H,   90 R, 25 HR, 91 RBI, 14 SB, .280 AVG—Hunter Pence

162 G, 662 PA, 177 H, 103 R, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 24 SB, .294 AVG—Carlos Gonzalez

Given the same amount of playing time, Carlos Gonzalez beats Hunter Pence across the board. Gonzalez is the guy that you can dream on to achieve the big, round numbers mentioned above. In the real world, though, despite his inferior statistics on a per-plate appearance basis, Pence has been the more valuable fantasy outfielder because of his durability.

So, what about 2015? How much does Pence’s broken arm affect his fantasy value?

I created dollar values using composite projections from Fantasy411.com (a combination of 12 sources). These projections are based on a 12-team league with 21 players, including 9 active hitters (no MI or CI), 7 active pitchers (2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P), and 5 bench spots. There were 63 outfielders projected for positive value (a little more than 5 per team). Using these projections, a healthy Hunter Pence is projected for the following stats:

644 PA, 159 H, 81 R, 20 HR, 82 RBI, 12 SB, .270 AVG

This puts him #12 among outfielders, but a dollar more in value would move him as high as ninth and a dollar less would drop him to 15^th, so you could say he’s in the 9-15 range when it comes to outfielders. Others in that same range based on these projections are Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury, Corey Dickerson, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Matt Holliday. With these stats (per this set of projections), Pence would be a late fourth-round pick.

Healthy Hunter Pence

$21

#12 OF (range is from 9 to 15)

Late 4^th round

Comparable to: Ryan Braun, Corey Dickerson, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton

This year we know Pence will miss some time. The initial estimates say six to eight weeks until he’s ready to play. Pence seems to me to be the type of guy who will do whatever he can to get back on the field as soon as possible. In fact, I can’t imagine Pence could sit still for five minutes, let alone an entire baseball game. He’s probably going to drive his teammates crazy.

So let’s say Pence misses the month of April. That leaves him with five months of playing time. Some simple math would suggest the injured Pence will get 83% of the playing time a healthy Pence would get, so we’ll pro-rate his projection above to 83% of the playing time:

535 PA, 132 H, 68 R, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 10 SB, .270 AVG—83% of the season

Losing a month of playing time drops Pence’s value into the mid-30s among outfielders, around such players as Brandon Moss, Denard Span, Marcell Ozuna, and Alex Rios.

Injured Hunter Pence (missing one month of the season)

$9

#36 OF (range is from 33 to 39)

Early 13^th round

Comparable to: Brandon Moss, Denard Span, Marcell Ozuna, Alex Rios

But wait, there’s more! We know Pence will miss time. It could be a couple weeks, it could be a month, it could be a month-and-a-half. We also know that we can replace him for that time, so we can factor in his replacement to get a better value for Pence. If you drop him all the way down to 83% of his projected stats, he drops too far on your cheat sheet and you’ll never acquire him.

Let’s factor in the value of a replacement outfielder for the time Pence is going stir-crazy on the Giants’ bench. Based on the composite projections from Fantasy411, the first five replacement outfielders are Michael Saunders, Michael Morse, Curtis Granderson, Angel Pagan, and Dexter Fowler. If you combine the stats for these five players and pro-rate them to one month’s worth of playing time, you get the following:

87 PA, 20 H, 11 R, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, .258 AVG—Pence one-month replacement

Add this to our “83% of the season” numbers for Pence from above:

535 PA, 132 H, 68 R, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 10 SB, .270 AVG—83% of the season

And we get:

622 PA, 152 H, 78 R, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 12 SB, .268 AVG—Pence + Replacement

This batting line moves Pence back up the rankings. He becomes the #20 outfielder, in the range of Alex Gordon, Nelson Cruz, and Jason Heyward.

Injured Hunter Pence + Replacement Player for One Month

$17

#20 OF (range is from 18 to 23)

6^th round

Comparable to: Alex Gordon, Nelson Cruz, Jason Heyward

Of course, your numbers may vary, but the process is the important part. A healthy Hunter Pence is a late 4^th-round pick. An injured Hunter Pence with no replacement is an early 13^th round pick. An injured Hunter Pence with a replacement player for one month is a mid 6^th round pick.

The recent injury to Hunter Pence hurts his value, but he could still be someone to target if other owners shy away from him and he’s still around in the 7^th round or later.