Following a 0-for-4 performance against the Twins on May 15th, Matt Carpenter was hitting .140/.286/.272 with a 59 wRC+ over 140 plate appearances. That’s not, um, optimal. One of the Cardinals best players in recent memory was not starting the 2018 season on the right foot. At the time though, Carpenter’s underlying numbers indicated better times were ahead as his .371 xwOBA (expected wOBA) was much higher than his actual .257 wOBA. If you’d sort the largest underperformance difference between xwOBA and wOBA through May 15th for hitters with at least 75 plate appearances, Carpenter’s figure calls out for immediate attention.

Table 1. Underperformance by wOBA-xwOBA through May 15th, 2018 (Min. 75 PA)

Player Name               wOBA            xwOBA          Difference
Randal Grichuk           0.201             0.325                -0.124
Matt Carpenter            0.257             0.371                -0.114
Kole Calhoun               0.174              0.274               -0.100
Avisail Garcia              0.246              0.345               -0.099
Jason Kipnis                0.234              0.330              -0.096
Teoscar Hernandez    0.357              0.447               -0.090
Adam Duvall                0.284             0.371                -0.087
Ryan Zimmerman      0.298              0.384              -0.086
Jason Heyward           0.293              0.377               -0.084
Bryce Harper               0.381              0.463               -0.082

Despite xwOBA not being a “perfect” metric, it still provides a fair amount of insight into a player’s performance. Alas, the metric, to my knowledge, hasn’t accounted for speed data for every player. I am not as well-versed in the Statcast metrics as I would like to be, but that is one missing piece that would be critical in my opinion. At the same time, we can still make reasonable assumptions based on the data at hand.

Carpenter was clearly underperforming based on what one would expect from his batted ball data and historical results. This kind of rough start was surely not going to last an entire season. Eventually, the numbers would start to normalize. But could the shift have played a role in the early lackluster results? Perhaps as he has faced the highest percentage of shifts for a St. Louis hitter in 2018.

Table 2. Shift/Non-Shift Percentage Breakdown – 2018

Shift          Non-Shift
82.4%         17.6%

Look how opposing infields lined up against Carpenter when he stepped into the batter’s box this season. More times than not the infield shifted more towards the first base side, which makes sense against a left-handed hitter.

Still, indications existed that pointed towards a rebound for the age-32 infielder as his 88.4 MPH average exit velocity through May 15th wasn’t too far off his yearly numbers per Baseball Savant. Starting on May 16th though, the sudden U-turn of Carpenter’s 2018 season took place.

Table 3. Top ML hitters by wRC+ since May 16th (Min. 100 PA)

Player Name               wRC+
Matt Carpenter             203
Mike Trout                     189
Mookie Betts                 188
J.D. Martinez                182
Max Muncy                    172
Jose Ramirez                 170
Paul Goldschmidt         165
Alex Bregman                164
Nelson Cruz                   163
Shin-Soo Choo              161

Holy expletive! Carpenter has been a better hitter, by wRC+, than Mike Trout. That’s something.

Since May 16th, Carpenter has arguably been the best hitter in baseball. His 203 wRC+ leads the majors since mid-May, and his .336/.434/.730 slash line looks darn right impressive. His 32 home runs is a new career-high. Since May 16th, Carpenter has an average exit velocity of 91.5 MPH. Yes, he started to hit the ball harder than he has in years past. In a National League without a clear-cut MVP candidate, I’d think Carpenter will receive plenty of attention. Honestly, he should.

Concerning xwOBA and wOBA, Carpenter went from underperforming to performing closer to what the batted ball data would suggest. In fact, he is now exceeding his expected numbers.

Table 4. xwOBA/wOBA since May 16th

xwOBA      wOBA
.453            .475

Carpenter has also found a way to excel against, or least mitigate, the shift throughout the summer months. For example, his wOBA against the shift was a measly .243 with a .356 xwOBA through May 15th.

Since May 16th, he has posted a .467 wOBA with a .445 xwOBA against an infield shift.

If you examine his batted ball data, it is clear that Carpenter has started hitting more fly balls and pulling the ball as the season has progressed.

Table 5. Monthly FB%, Pull%, Cent%, Oppo% – 2018

Monthly       FB%       Pull%       Cent%       Oppo% 
Mar/Apr       44.1%    45.0%       33.3%       21.7%
May               50.8%    47.7%       26.2%       26.2%
June              45.1%     40.9%      36.6%       22.5%
July               49.3%     52.0%      24.0%       24.0%
August          56.0%     64.0%      20.0%       16.0%

Carpenter adjusted to what the defense was giving him. The shift worked for a short while then he essentially shifted where he hit the ball. That’s awfully impressive. In turn, he now has a .401 wOBA against the shift for the entire season. His .320 isolated power would easily be a career-best and has already posted 4.9 wins above replacement with 46 games to go in the regular season for the Cardinals. His results could be a reason to point out why hitters can conquer the shift, yet it remains a difficult task actually to accomplish. Thanks to this adjustment at the plate, Carpenter has made a sudden U-turn into baseball’s best hitter since mid-May.

**Statistics and information as of August 10th, 2018, and courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Savant**

As Brian Dozier began a new month with his new Los Angeles Dodgers, it was apropos that Dozier would hit a single, double, and home run in his first game. For Dozier, the Dodgers, and specifically Yasmani Grandal walking off in the bottom of the 10^th, August 1 was a magical sort of night. The Dodgers broke a three-game skid to overcome the  Brewers 6-4. regarding momentum, an establishment of tone for the month of August. Having just passed the trade deadline and tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the National League West, August represents a fresh start amid a long season – the line between exhaustion and giving the remainder of dwindling energy.

Los Angeles now has Manny Machado, Arizona now has Eduardo Escobar; two players who plug glaring holes to add that last substantive energy. Los Angeles, however, also obtained Brian Dozier – a second baseman who has simply regressed in hitting. He is in a season-long lull, hitting .229 with a .415 SLG, and a 95 wRC+ after finishing at .271, .498, and 125 in 2017. He has never relied on the luck of high BABIP and lucky placement, always an extremely successful hitter for the Minnesota Twins on his own merit. He simply fell flat in a flat batting order.

While not an objective point of analysis, Dozier might just need a change of pace in a new town to start finding the ball again. Open comments to the media regarding Minnesota being ‘comfortable’ and Los Angeles being a team in the race ‘rejuvenating me [Dozier] as a player’ provide surface-level follow-up for the ‘new city – new player’ philosophy.

Considering that Dozier is in the last year of his contract makes him only more of an enigma. The ‘contract-year’ is traditionally when batters inflate their statistics on a bad team for a massive contract in their later years. (Tradition in free-agency, being broken and a topic much written about). With Dozier doing the complete opposite, assuming he has the ability to rejuvenate his career, Los Angeles might be able to hide his genius and buy-low in free-agency. They have attempted to trade for Dozier the past two seasons, hence trading for Dozier has given a subtle chess piece to the Los Angeles front office for the 2019 season.

The importance of Dozier in the Los Angeles lineup is not about dazzling power. While chess piece might be a degrading term, for Dozier, it is a complement to its procedural efficiency. Second base has been Los Angeles’ worst position and Dozier will plug what has been a sloppy turnstile in the batting lineup.

On a micro-level, Dozier’s enigma of a collapse is across the board. He is making 11 percent more contact outside and three-percent less inside contact but is still contacting around 82 percent on the fastball. The only difference, a fall to a .259 from a .298 average. Despite making more contact on sinkers, 83.2 to 86 percent and two-percent less swinging-strikes, he is only hitting at a 126 wRC+ from a 171 wRC+. (And, yes, that is still above average, but a fall for Dozier).

The slider, a pitch never hit for average, has seen seven percent less outside-swings (26.6 to 19.9 percent) and a subsequent drop in outside-contact (60 to 51.2 percent). The result has been 52.4 percent in-field fly-balls, up from 22.2 percent. The worst pitch for Dozier this year has been the curveball, seeing a pitiful .054 average and -50 wRC+. This comes even as he is swinging less at the curve (39.6 to 32.2 percent).

The only pitch Dozier has seen an improvement on is the changeup, hitting at a .333 ISO (.128 in 2017) and a 178 wRC+ (120 in 2017). The main emphasis has been him attacking inside the zone five percent more. This is the same strategy which Dozier held in 2016, when he attacked the inside changeup at 69 percent and hit for a .338 ISO.

The subtle change in Dozier, however, is evident in his attack of the changeup. In 2018, Dozier has been attempting to hit opposite field for changeup power, with incredibly precise hits to right field. He also has gotten lucky on three infield hits. In 2017, however, Dozier was comfortable in pulling changeups to the left-field. While this has been a positive trend for the changeup, on a meta-level, Dozier’s fascination with hitting opposite is putting him on pace for more outs.

The following is a side-by-side comparison of balls resulting in outs for Dozier (per Baseball Savant), with 2018 on the left and 2017 on the right. He is avoiding pulling the ball, and as a result, has patterned his hits into a persistent pattern within a strangely linear line. The same comparison done on balls hit into play with no-outs is further evidence of Dozier attempting to hit balls to opposite field. In short terms, he is attempting to create distinct power by aiming the ball instead of just continuing to comfortably pull.

Conjoining the theory that Dozier will be better on a better Los Angeles roster with what can be termed as ‘futile desperation’ in attempts to hit opposite the field leads back to the subtle change within each micro-pitch. While the meta-level comparison is little changed for swinging percentage, very small, but important tweaks, in Dozier swinging outside exist. Hence, he is trying to walk more.

In other terms, Dozier has been on a bad team, and knowing so, has been attempting to take less risks outside so he walks more while also trying to create more emphatic power by targeting opposite field. He has been trying to mitigate Minnesota’s inefficiencies by playing tighter himself. While one game is hardly a good sample size, there may be an underlying psychological shift in Los Angeles which allows Dozier to relax and comfortably attack the ball.

Reshaping a team core comes with reshaping team analytics – or, at least the goal is to craft players within a certain subset of principles. Each player will have natural talent they are inclined to favor (power, getting on base, choice of stat here), and in that nature, the team principles taught might be best thought of as a way to control the random chaos of baseball. Creating an orderly lineup within a game of disorderly results.

Thus, one of the underlying theories of evaluating a team reshaping the core is to analyze those players they are shaping; players who have the talent to subtly manage their own game. The Reds are one of those teams rebuilding with a split between stark promise and those who, bluntly, are roster spots. In some regards, Cincinnati is a universe revolving around the Joey Votto-style of baseball – low rate of outside swings, high contact, the simplicity of getting on base. Overall, they have the fourth lowest swinging-strike percentage in the MLB (9.6 percent), are tied for the fifth lowest outside-swing percentage (29.1 percent) and are tied for the second highest-contact rate (79.5 percent) with the Boston Red Sox.

There is sensibility of principled baseball despite their slight record. Effectively, however, the main separating point between teams such as the Red Sox and Reds is visualized in their spray chart on base hits; Boston with a wide range, Cincinnati lacking viability of power. There is something to be said about Cincinnati having the MLB’s fifth-best batting average (.259), but that average is held back by a .144 ISO and a .401 SLG mark (bottom third of the MLB). Cincinnati’s range of contact is quaint, more akin to a peaceful breeze than a bombastic wind.

Philosophically, the peaceful wind of contact is bound to the style of pitches attacked, their underlying method of creating order. Further defining that order (and leading with summation), they have a knack to lead pitchers into throwing them a favorable pitch with foul-balls and an inclination for avoiding weak contact. And while Votto might be the veteran tangentially modeling an established career, the success of Scooter Gennett, Jesse Winker, Curt Casali, and Jose Peraza reflect effectiveness seasons from now.

To note, if any player can be removed from this group, it would be Gennett, who has intrinsic power and might be termed the most natural player. However, he still falls into the binding theme of an academic plate-approach under the adage of leading pitchers into contact and lowering swinging-strike percentage. Between all four players, they have only 724 swings outside of the zone. Not surprisingly, the aberration pitches far outside are mostly Gennett swinging – remove his partiality to power, and the chart loses wild swings and the knuckle curve.

Moving inside the zone, the Cincinnati four have only 10.3 percent whiffs, with 39.1 percent fouls, 32.6 percent balls batted into plays, and 18 percent hits. One of the most impressive aspects of the inside contact has been the lack of weak contact opposed to the flare, solid, or barrel contact. Hence, within their categorized principles, Cincinnati has shaped the type of pitches which need to be attacked inside the zone. Again, that point of avoiding handing a pitcher a quick-out, instead creating foul balls and probability in launch-angle. Although they overwhelmingly have better contact than average, their lack of deep power (exit velocity) is seen in the classic moon-shot of under contact.

Principled swinging might be best reflected in the evolved in-game attack. As the game progresses, these players make contact in a tighter range with higher exit velocity. The results in innings one through three have been a method to create more power contact, albeit, at the risk of weaker contact. Hence, a method of sorting through how to attack during the remainder of the game while taking a risk on some intrinsic fastballs. From innings four through six, the contact group becomes smaller, and thus the spray chart also becomes more oriented toward singles with less power. They become more principled to find the average rate of success. Even though power is lost, they are becoming better at capitalizing on simplicity.

Inning seven through nine are the most evident of how Cincinnati is shaping their players to hit for the average rate of success. Regard, this is a team which overwhelmingly has found a way to chip away late in games. (The Cincinnati four have combined for a .304 AVG; 128 wRC+ split in high leverage, .289 AVG; 111 wRC+ in innings seven through nine).

Their attack becomes tuned for breaking pitches (or finding the breaking pitches which do not break) and thus into making less powerful contact but creating more functional contact on average. They remove the risk from themselves by avoiding wild swings, and thus force pitchers to throw breaking balls into the zone. 28.7 percent of their swings in the late innings have gone into play, while another 37.8 percent have gone for fouls. That punctual ability to create foul balls and chip away at pitchers creates long-at bats to reveal weak-points, wears down relievers, and eventually lead to a swing-worthy breaking ball.

Cincinnati may not be the most successful or powerful team within the moment. But, this is only the moment of crafting. The Joey Votto way of baseball might be a grinding and dying way of baseball. The Votto way of baseball might even be a misnomer for power-hitters such as Gennett. Yet, in the end, the underlying philosophy of Cincinnati’s baseball is to remove intrinsic risk in swinging and create order by forcing the pitcher to make the first risk.

He throws a fastball. He throws a slider. He introduces the subtle slight-of-hand with a curve ball. The description could fit one of many relief pitchers who have walked through the doors of Miller Park in Milwaukee. The description is also specific to the debut of Corbin Burnes; a 95 MPH fastball, 2,900 RPM curveball pitcher who paints the plate with spinning fire. The diverse intersection between his fastball, curveball, and more commonly used slider makes Burnes another stable relief pitcher. However, the potential of a changeup with dazzling mechanics have Burnes on pace to fulfill his long-term projection as a starter. The 2018 extended relief situations are only a fine-tuning process, so his meticulous approach will become elegantly meticulous as a starter.

Burnes sample-size is small; three games small. Eventually, as all relievers do, one-bad pitch will create a problematic scenario. The question becomes how Burnes reacts toward that controversy, defining his understanding of strategy negotiation in the MLB. Mechanically, Burnes has the fundamentals to skillfully react, deriving strike-outs with a fastball hitting an average 95.3 MPH, his 87.7 MPH slider with control of a whistling 2,909 RPMs, and his curve ball at an equally mesmerizing 2,922 RPMs.

Comparatively, his slider is one revolution less than Luis Severino, and his curveball has greater spin than Rich Hill or Justin Verlander. Regard, greater effective spin rate does not intrinsically make a pitcher better, but it provides the mechanical solution and optimal projection to build intrinsic control. Spin rate is an essential sign of manipulating batters.

Burnes makes his spin rate effective with a quick release. His pace of pitching further assists in pitch disguise, sitting at 22.8 seconds above the average of 25 seconds. Release points are fairly-well grouped, albeit, the fastball does tend to be released a bit higher than the slider. Maybe more importantly is his curveball is released from the same position as his fastball. Hypothetically, once the change up is released, pitching charts should show that his fastball, curveball, and changeup are released from the same slot. Add in pace of play, and Burnes manipulates batters with intensity and deception.

There are two projection points for Burnes, both unfairly high in Severino and teammate Josh Hader. The purpose is not to heap on all-star expectations early in Burnes’ career, rather to show two optimal styles he can evolve into.

The Severino projection is based upon the quick-pace of play, spine rate, and indication Milwaukee prefers Burnes as a starter. Under this theory, he would need to add in a changeup that can assist in disguising his fastball, forcing batters to swing too early. Severino rose to all-star status on the changeup/slider interlay with distinguished velocity, presenting a velocity map that shows greater control of velocity as he advanced his career. Severino has added two MPH to his fastball (96 to 98 MPH) and increasingly tweaked his changeup – Burnes has the fundamentals to follow this model.

The Hader projection leaves Burnes in the bullpen if his changeup is slow to evolve or a curveball which falls to mediocre control. Hader built a deadeye slider into his arsenal to become a definitive relief pitcher. He has precise control over velocity and placement to set-up pitch one with a fastball, then strike back with a contrasting fastball or slider. Burnes has the fastball quality to match Hader and the ability to control left or right-handed batters. Add in a changeup, and Burnes complements Hader in Milwaukee by becoming a three-pitch, set-up pitcher for innings six through eight.

Through three games in the MLB, Burnes has a swinging-strike rate of 20.5 percent and a first-strike rate of 61.9 percent while hitting the zone 38 percent. His game arsenal shows a favorability to begin with an inside-pitch, then overwhelmingly attack the shadow of the zone. Five of his 20 sliders which have hit the corners of the zone have gone for swinging-strike outs, while another resulted in a ground-out. Six more went for balls, one for a foul, and seven for strikes. Hence, batters have had a hard-time locating his moving slider.

Burnes’ performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers offers insight into his awareness. He relieved Chase Anderson in the fifth with bases loaded and no outs. In a bamboozling play, he worked with catcher Erik Katz to obtain an out on Clayton Kershaw at home. He then threw two sliders to Matt Kemp resulting in swinging-strikes, a fastball outside resulting in a ball which set-up a slider for the final swinging-strike. More importantly, these were pitches with low-contact probability – the one thing which had to be avoided was Kemp obtaining a pop-up to scuttle Joc Pederson or Manny Machado home. Obtaining the punctual strikeout allowed Burnes freedom to throw inside the zone against Max Muncy – any result, including the resulting fly-out, was appropriate, thus Burnes hit Muncy with his 97 MPH fastball.

If Burnes maintains the elegance he showed against Los Angeles, he qualifies to build a skillful foray for Milwaukee either as a starter or reliever. He might be another generic reliever for now; time in the MLB, however, is the one-factor holding him back from creating powerful uniqueness with generic presentations.

The development of Marco Gonzales is essential for the Seattle Mariners immediate or long-term pitching success, insight into the very way the Mariners construct their starting rotation. Gonzales is another pitcher with long-term control (through 2023) that Jerry Dipoto found in a myriad of whimsically addictive trading, acquired in July 2017 from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for right-field prospect Tyler O’Neill. Tommy John surgery history and analytics pushed him immediately into the safety net of the Mariners AAA affiliate, the Tacoma Rainers, with the delineation of ‘long-term’ project. However, injuries to anyone in a Mariner uniform ensured no AAA project was safe in Tacoma; Gonzales received his callup on August 5, 2017, never to look back.

Gonzales just finished the months of June and July with the Mariners second most innings pitched (59.2, just behind Mike Leake’s 62.1 innings) and a FanGraphs’ WAR of 1.3. If arguments were to be succinct by WAR, then Gonzales has been the second most stable starting Mariners pitcher with 2.5 WAR on the season after 119.2 innings pitched. The stability of Gonzales, however, is entirely despite allowing an above average BABIP and contact percentage of .305 and 80.2, respectively.

Gonzales, by design, is a breaking-ball pitcher who seeks contact, but that does not make his games any less tedious or uncomfortable. If there were an analytic for uncomfortable pitching style, where the clean-up process becomes essential, Gonzales would top that leaderboard. Context is essential to introducing his development for two-fold reason. First, Gonzales is tied to the Mariners front office vision; a pitcher that they have buried plenty of faith in his steady increase in workload around their style of development. Second, this is not a regular development process akin to the league standard; Gonzales was thrown into the MLB due to the Mariners haunting injuries through 2017, and thus has been forced to re-learn the art of the breaking ball ahead of schedule.

The Mariners noticeably began to have an immediate effect on assisting Gonzales tap into his development as a breaking-ball pitcher. His four-seam fastball was still utilized 52.5 percent of the time last season but steadily dropped throughout his August and September in Seattle. At the same time, he began to utilize his curveball, doubling the rate which he used with the Cardinals to 16.7 percent, while also slightly increasing his changeup.

There was a vision in-tact, and in 2018, that vision came to fruition. His four-seam fastball fell to 10.9 percent with a cutter and sinker appearing at the rates of 18.6 and 23.7 percent, respectively. His curve-ball further rose, effectively tying together a breaking ball type of arsenal with the sinker, changeup, and curve of equal use dependent on the situation.

This is more than a natural change to strategy, but a compelling point that Gonzales had finally overcome Tommy John surgery. He had dropped his cutter and sinker earlier in his career to alleviate torque and recover safely. Reports and commentary from catcher Mike Zunino earlier in the year signaled that this season would see a new, more aggressive Gonzales attempting to conform batters, not he conforming to batters.

Confidence from Gonzales is seen in an addiction in committing to the quickened recovery pace. Over the span of the season, the evidence already points toward Gonzales finding a natural flow to his post-Tommy John arsenal and his goal of using the zone’s shadow to pinpoint strike percentage. Further breakdown shows two important developments. First, he is using less of the zone to derive more swings, particularly outside-swing percentage. Hence, he no longer needs to use in-zone pitches to deceive batters into soft-contact on outside pitches, he can just use his natural breaking pitch. Second, at the same time, he is maintaining an uncomfortable contact percentage and BABIP rate, both are controlled with BABIP trending down on the season.

Breaking-ball pitchers are going to be more brazen in their attempt to get outs based on soft-contact, but Gonzales is showing an ability to decrease his BABIP rate on the season while also stabilizing his FIP and xFIP around 3.3 and 3.4, respectively. The stabilization of Gonzales, again, is equally impressive for how quick he has turned around, albeit, a bit surprising because of how uncomfortable his BABIP is.

Gonzales’ batting average, slugging, and ISO rates per zone are higher than average, hence the above average BABIP. His expected batting average is either similar to or the same as his functional output, but his expected slugging and ISO become worrisome, leading to the analytical insight that any moment could lead to a sudden regression.

The summary point on Gonzales’ analytics would debate the point regression is inevitable; his overwhelming confidence and ability to control the quality of contact is what makes Gonzales development as a pitcher enticing. He has maintained a steady bought of keeping launch-angle to nine degrees while holding barrel percentage to six all for the goal of making balls hit into play, easier to handle. Perfection from Gonzales may never be expected, or reasonable – his changeup floating in the upper zone to set up a low curveball does provide dangerous contact opportunity; the magic, however, in his arsenal is the crisp preciseness to obtain quick outs and double-plays if the bases are loaded. Between the sinker and curveball follow-up, spotting adequate contact on Gonzales is epitomized by the random chance of baseball.

On that note, Gonzales’ pitching style might be summarized as an ability to double-down on batting randomization.

By Connor Pignatello

This is a continuation of a previous post, in which I graded trades that happened before the deadline. In this edition, I will grade trades that happened on deadline day itself.

OF Tommy Pham to the Rays for International Bonus Pool Money, SP Genesis Cabrera, RP Roel Ramirez and RF Justin Williams

Considering they are just one game over .500 and 20 games out of first place in a stacked AL East, no one expected the Rays to be buyers at the trade deadline. In fact, they even traded away two All-Stars, in pitcher Chris Archer and catcher Wilson Ramos. But, the Rays shocked the baseball world by trading for Tommy Pham, the Cardinals 2017 breakout star. In his breakout season last year, Pham batted .306, bashing 23 homers and stealing 25 bags — earning an eleventh place in the NL MVP voting. Pham’s wonderful combination of power and speed led him to a stellar 6.2 WAR — good for fourth among NL position players. However, this year, Pham has struggled to a 0.9 WAR, batting just .248 with 14 home runs and 10 stolen bases. However, Pham’s BABIP of .303 this year shows he has been incredibly unlucky, and a change of scenery to Tropicana Field may turn around his luck. If Pham is able to regain his 2017 form, the Rays just got a major steal, and if he isn’t able to repeat his 2017 season, the cost will not be too high as the Rays did not give up a top-ten prospect to get him. Pham is cheap and under team control for three more years, and this is a great low-risk, high-reward move by the cash-strapped Rays. Outfielder Justin Williams and SP Genesis Cabrera slot in as the Cardinals’ #9 and #14 prospects as St. Louis tries to build up a middling farm system.

Rays Grade: A

Cardinals Grade: B

OF Leonys Martin and SP Kyle Dowdy to the Indians for SS/2B Willi Castro

A deadline acquisition for the second year in a row, Leonys Martin is on his fourth team in the past two years. Solid at bat and in the field, Martin will surely help a Cleveland squad that has gotten awful production from its outfield. The Indians have used Michael Brantley, Brandon Guyer, Tyler Naquin, Rajai Davis, Bradley Zimmer, and Melky Cabrera in the outfield, but those six outfielders have combined for 1.0 WAR. Martin leads all AL outfielders in range factor per game and outfield assists — a sure upgrade over Brantley, Cabrera, and Guyer — who have all been negatives defensively. An above-average hitter, Willi Castro slides in at #10 in Detroit’s prospect rankings, a solid exchange for the tanking Tigers.

Indians Grade: A-

Tigers Grade: A-
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RP Brad Ziegler to the Diamondbacks for RP Tommy Eveld

The 38-year old sidearmer Ziegler returns to the desert — where he pitched from 2011 to 2016 — in hopes of igniting a postseason return for the Diamondbacks. In his six prior years with Arizona, Ziegler pitched in 348 games and notched a 2.49 ERA before being traded to the Red Sox in July of 2016. Ziegler has struggled this year en route to a 3.98 ERA and a 4.59 FIP, but has been lights-out in June and July, recording a 0.93 ERA. With additions like Ziegler, righthander Matt Andriese, and versatile infielder Eduardo Escobar, the Diamondbacks are making a real playoff push, trying to stave off both the Rockies and the Dodgers in the tight NL West. The tanking Marlins have no use for a 38-year old relief pitcher, but were not able to recoup a top-30 prospect in the deal.

Diamondbacks Grade: A-

Marlins Grade: B

C Wilson Ramos to the Phillies for a Player to be Named Later or Cash

Amidst the best offensive year of his career, Wilson Ramos is headed to Philadelphia to provide them with a veteran, middle-of-the-order bat to supplement their playoff push. Current Phils catcher Jorge Alfaro has been solid, slashing .288/.373/.500 over the past month. Ramos has been better though, batting .297 with 14 home runs in 78 games this year. However, there is a catch: Ramos has been out since July 14 with a hamstring injury and will not return until mid-August, meaning he will provide a limited impact with his new team. Trading for an injured player is always risky, but Ramos has been brilliant this year — he would have started the All-Star game if not for his aforementioned injury. The 30-year old Ramos is just a rental, but he was acquired at little cost, and will add much needed pop to the Phillies’ below-average offense. Tampa Bay undoubtedly realized the difficulty of resigning their star backstop, and will be glad to get some value for him.

Phillies Grade: A-

Rays Grade: B

2B Brian Dozier to the Dodgers for OF/1B Luke Raley, SP Devin Smeltzer and 2B/3B/1B Logan Forsythe

Supplementing their infield yet again just two weeks after trading for Manny Machado, the Dodgers added power-hitting second baseman Brian Dozier. Despite having a down year, Dozier is a substantial upgrade over incumbent second baseman Logan Forsythe, who was sent packing to the Twins as part of the exchange. Although Dozier has always prioritized power over contact, he has career-worst .224 batting average this year — much lower than his .269 average the past two seasons. In 2016, Dozier crushed 42 home runs — a single season record for a second baseman — on his way to a top-15 MVP finish. Last year, Dozier turned in another great campaign, hitting 34 homers and earning another top-15 MVP finish, as well as his first Gold Glove. Up to this year, Dozier has averaged 4.4 WAR per season, but his WAR of 1.2 this year shows that the 31-year old may have lost a step. Despite a down year, Dozier will be an immediate upgrade at second base and the Dodgers did not have to surrender much talent to rent him. Logan Forsythe has recorded a -0.6 WAR this year thanks to a measly .207 batting average, and Luke Raley comes in at #19 in a loaded Los Angeles farm system. A 10-year vet in the Twins organization, Dozier is a fan favorite, a veteran mentor to Minnesota’s younger players, and has expressed willingness to stay with Minnesota for the rest of his career, making this a puzzling decision from the Minnesota front office.

Dodgers Grade: A

Twins Grade: C

SP Kevin Gausman and RP Darren O’Day to the Braves for C/RF Brett Cumberland, 3B/SS/1B Jean Carlos Encarnacion, SP Bruce Zimmerman, RP Evan Phillips, and International Bonus Pool Money

The Braves supplemented their starting rotation and bullpen at relatively low cost, again trading bonus pool money they can’t use to the Orioles. Although Gausman’s career ERA of 4.22 is less than stellar, he is one of the best innings-eaters in baseball and has two more years of team control left. Last year, the 6’3” righty led the league with 34 starts and pitched 186 ⅔ innings, good for tenth in the AL. 35-year old Darren O’Day, although out for the rest of the year after hamstring surgery, is a reliable asset out of the bullpen and is under contract for one more year. Jean Carlos Encarnacion and Brett Cumberland were Atlanta’s 14th and 30th best prospects, respectively, so the cost for pitching depth was not too high for the young Braves, who are just a ½ away from first place in the NL East.

Braves Grade: B

Orioles Grade: B+

SP Chris Archer to the Pirates for RP Tyler Glasnow, OF Austin Meadows and a Player to be Named Later

In the day’s only true blockbuster, Rays starter Chris Archer — the subject of trade rumors since his top-5 Cy Young finish in 2015 — moves to Pittsburg as the Pirates make a late playoff push. The Pirates have gone 16-4 in their last 20 games, propelling them back into the Wild Card race. Archer, on one of the most desirable contracts in baseball with three years of team control left, will help the Pirates contend this year and for years to come. Archer owns a career 3.69 ERA and a 3.52 career FIP, and possesses a powerful fastball, devastating slider, a firm changeup, and a blazing fast sinker. However, Archer was not acquired without a heavy price, as Pittsburg was forced to part with two great young players: Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow. Formerly one of the best prospects in the game, Meadows has broken in this year with the Pirates, batting .292 in 49 big league games. Although his overall production this year has been rather pedestrian, Meadows is just 23 and has All-Star potential. Also a former top-ten prospect, Tyler Glasnow has slid into a bullpen role with the Pirates this year, notching a 4.34 ERA over 56 innings. Glasnow is an adept strikeout pitcher, as evidenced by his 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings this year, but his control problems have persisted, resulting in a ghastly 5.5 walks per nine innings this year. After years of trade rumors, Archer will be glad to finally change teams, and the Rays were able to recover significant assets from the Pirates in this swap.

Pirates Grade: B+

Rays Grade: A

2B Jonathan Schoop to the Brewers for SS/2B/3B Jean Carmona, SP Luis Ortiz, SS/2B/3B Jonathan Villar

Adding to their already loaded lineup, the Brewers continued their pursuit of the NL Central title with their acquisition of power-hitting second baseman Jonathan Schoop. Schoop played like a star last year, batting .293, smacking 32 homers, driving in 105 runs, and recording a 5.2 WAR. Schoop parlayed those stats into an All-Star appearance and a 12th-place finish in the AL MVP voting. This year however, Schoop has struggled a bit, batting just .244 but still managing to hit 17 home runs. Schoop’s 1.2 WAR is actually worse than the man he’s replacing, Jonathan Villar, who has notched a 1.4 WAR this year. Milwaukee is obviously banking on the 26-year old Schoop to regain his 2017 form and supplement their already-stacked infield. Villar, already a member of rebuilding squads in Houston and Milwaukee, will join Baltimore’s rebuild for the next three years he’s under contract. The speedy Villar, who led baseball with 62 steals in 2016, is still a very serviceable and versatile infielder at 27 years old. Luis Ortiz, who came to Milwaukee in 2016 as part of the Johnathan Lucroy deal, is the fourth-best prospect in the Brewers’ farm system and is ranked as baseball’s #52 prospect. Ortiz profiles as a potential #2 starter and is a great addition to Baltimore’s newly-strengthened farm system. Although the Brewers gave up valuable assets in Villar and Ortiz, Schoop is one of the better second basemen in the league, and still has a year of team control left.

Brewers Grade: B

Orioles Grade: B

Special thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for these helpful stats, MLB.com for the prospect rankings, and The Sporting News for the transaction list.

You can find more posts like this at my blog, The Full Court Press.

By Connor Pignatello

As teams approached MLB’s non-waiver trade deadline at 4 pm on July 31st, many hoped to bolster their squads to make pennant pushes and many sold off valuable assets for young players who can help them in the coming years. Bargain deals, veteran rentals, and blockbusters combined to form one of the most active trade deadlines in recent memory, as stars like Manny Machado, Chris Archer, and Brian Dozier changed uniforms. Here is my breakdown of the most significant moves from the days leading up to deadline day.

SS/3B Manny Machado to the Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B/2B Rylan Bannon, OF Yusniel Diaz, SP Dean Kremer, RP Zach Pop, and 2B/3B Breyvic Valera

On July 18th, the day after the All Star game, the Dodgers kicked off trade season with a blockbuster deal to land Manny Machado, an established star and one of the best players in baseball, for a handful of prospects. Machado is a stellar defender at both shortstop and third base, and has played both so far in his short Dodgers career. Although the Dodgers would love to resign Machado and place him at third for the next several years, Machado will require a lot of money in free agency and has been adamant about his desire to play shortstop, a positio that waspreviously held by 2016 Rookie of the Year Corey Seager, who underwent Tommy John surgery in May. The rebuilding Orioles had no chance to resign Machado on the open market, and received talented outfielder Yusniel Diaz, who immediately slots in as their best prospect in an extremely weak farm system. Even if this is just a rental for Los Angeles, they hope this will get them over the hump and help them defend their National League crown.

Dodgers Grade: A

Orioles Grade: A-

RP Brad Hand and RP Adam Cimber to the Indians for C Francisco Mejia

With their once-dominant bullpen suffering due to injuries and ineffectiveness — Andrew Miller hasn’t pitched since May and once dominant closer Cody Allen is struggling to a career-worst 4.57 ERA — the Indians added some much-needed bullpen help in two-time All-Star Brad Hand, who has three more years of team control left. As every other team in their division is below .500, the Indians have an easy path to the postseason, but as the 2016 AL pennant winners know, a lights-out bullpen is a necessity in the postseason. Hand and Cimber have combined for a 3.01 ERA in 99 ⅓ innings this year, and will be a big boost for the Tribe come October. However, these acquisitions did not come without a price, as the Indians were forced to part with their best prospect and the #21 prospect in all of baseball, Francisco Mejia. Mejia is the best catcher prospect in the minor leagues — a good hitter with a great throwing arm frombehind the plate. The Padres will probably give Mejia a cameo at the end of this season, and he appears to be their future at the catcher position. The Indians acquired vital bullpen help, but Hand and Cimber are unlikely to push them past better teams like the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees. Mejia seemed to be a great replacement for veteran Yan Gomes, and this move seems a bit shortsighted, despite the three years of team control of Brad Hand.

Indians Grade: B+

Padres Grade: B+

RP Zach Britton to the Yankees for RP Cody Caroll, SP Josh Rogers, SP Dillon Tate

Although Zach Britton has fallen off in recent years, he is still an asset and will supplement a fearsome Yankee bullpen. Britton has struggled with injuries in both 2017 and 2018, but the Yankees are banking on him returning to his pre-injury form. In 2016, Britton was the most feared reliever in baseball, leading the league with 47 saves (and not blowing a single one) and recording an unfathomable 0.54 ERA. Britton got first-place Cy Young award votes in 2016, ultimately finishing fourth on the ballot.  However, the past two seasons have been tough for Britton. In just 56 games in 2017 and 2018, Britton has only notched 19 saves, and allowed more earned runs than he did in the 133 games he played in 2015 and 2016. Britton will probably be a rental for the Yankee bullpen, but this trade is beneficial for both sides. As a rebuilding team, the Orioles do not need a closer like Britton, and did well to get Dillon Tate, who projects to be a solid starter and slots in at sixth in the Orioles prospect rankings.

Yankees Grade: A

Orioles Grade: A

SP Nathan Eovaldi to the Red Sox for SP Jalen Beeks

Despite struggles with injuries, Nathan Eovaldi is now on his fifth team in seven MLB seasons thanks to his great arm and streaky play. In his first eight starts of the year, Eovaldi pitched masterfully to a 3.35 ERA and seemed to have fully recovered from a second Tommy John surgery in 2017. However, for the rest of the first half, Eovaldi struggled, and ended his tenure with the Rays with an ERA well over 4. In Eovaldi’s first and only start for the Red Sox, he impressed, throwing seven shutout innings and allowing just four hits. The backend of the Red Sox rotation has been a mess — 2016 trade deadline acquisition Drew Pomeranz has stumbled to a 6.91 ERA, fill-in Brian Johnson belongs in Triple-A, and knuckleballer Steven Wright has struggled with injuries since his breakout in 2016. With ace Chris Sale going to the 10-Day DL on July 31st, the Red Sox need starting pitching depth now more than ever, and the relatively low price of Jalen Beeks is worth it as the Red Sox progress towards the postseason. Beeks ranks as the Rays 15th-best prospect, and they will hope to develop him into a solid back-end starter.

Red Sox Grade: A-

Rays Grade: B

SP Cole Hamels to the Cubs for SP Rollie Lacy and RP Eddie Butler

In the midst of the worst season of his career, veteran pitcher Cole Hamels was acquired by the Cubs to help them retain their one game lead in the NL Central and make another trip to the postseason. Although Hamels home-road splits have been extreme — 2.93 ERA away, 6.41 at home — Hamels is in the midst of the worst stretch of the worst season of his career, and although it seems he could benefit from a change in scenery, the 34 year old does not have the stuff he used to have. In his last ten games, Hamels has pitched to a ghastly 10.23 ERA which has boosted his ERA for the year to 4.72. And no, Hamels is not the recipient of some bad luck, in fact, it is the opposite — a 5.20 FIP shows Hamels has actually been lucky this year. Although Hamels’ experience will help the Cubs come October — and the Cubs did not part with any significant assets to get him — this is a puzzling move from Theo Epstein. If Hamels can turn it around Epstein just got a great bargain, but if he continues his downward trend, he will be a disappointment for the hungry Cubs. Hamels has a $20 million team option for next season which will most definitely not be picked up, so the Rangers did well to recoup some assets for their aging pitcher.

Cubs Grade: C-

Rangers Grade: B+

3B/SS/2B Eduardo Escobar to the Diamondbacks for OF Ernie De La Trinidad, SP Jhoan Duran, CF Gabriel Maciel

Eduardo Escobar’s newfound power stroke has led to 15 homers, a league-leading 38 doubles, and 65 RBIs — and he’s on pace to easily register career highs in each of those categories. Capable at third base, shortstop, and second base, Escobar represents an upgrade at each of those positions as Arizona tries to make the postseason for the second year in a row. Escobar will be a free agent come year’s end, and after extension talks between Minnesota and Escobar failed, they wisely traded him in a forward-thinking move, which nets them two prospects that fit into their top 30, #17 Maciel and #21 Duran.

Twins Grade: A-

Diamondbacks Grade: A

Asdrubal Cabrera to the Phillies for SP Franklyn Kilome

As the Phillies try to hold onto their ½ game lead in the NL East, they bolstered their infield with a rental of Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera had an pretty good year from the plate with the Mets, batting .272 with 18 homers and 58 RBIs and registering a nice 2.8 WAR on the offensive end through 101 games. However, the 32-year old has been horrendous in the field, notching a -1.6 WAR on the defensive end, as his limited range has proved he can not play second base effectively anymore. His bat will help the Phillies push for the playoffs, but his glove dims his overall production. In a good trade for the Mets, they land yet another pitching prospect, Frankyln Kilome, who has struggled with control in Double-A, but slots in as their #5 prospect.

Phillies Grade: B-

Mets Grade: B+

3B Mike Moustakas to the Brewers for OF Brett Phillips and RP Jorge Lopez

After an All-Star campaign in 2017 in which he smacked 38 home runs, Mike Moustakas settled for a 1 year, $5.5 deal with the Royals, who currently hold the second-worst record in the MLB. Moustakas followed up his stellar 2017 season with another good performance this year — bashing 21 home runs before his trade to the Brewers. A solid defensive presence at the hot corner, Moustakas packs middle-of-the-order pop for a Brewers team that is just one game back from the NL Central lead. Incumbent third baseman Travis Shaw has been taking ground balls at second base, showing the willingness of the Brewers to include both of their power-hitting third basemen in the lineup. Although neither Brett Phillips nor Jorge Lopez had significant playing time this year, both are serviceable young players under team control until 2024. The 29-year old Moustakas was clearly not part of the rebuilding Royals’ plans, and they did well to recover two players for their longtime third baseman. Although Moustakas is a rental, he was one of the best bats on the trade market and was acquired for a relatively low cost by Brewers General Manager David Stearns.

Brewers Grade: A

Royals Grade: B

RP Brad Brach to the Braves for International Bonus Pool Money

From 2013-2017, Brach was excellent in the Orioles bullpen, pitching to a 2.79 ERA in 279 games. He has fallen off a bit this year, recording a 4.85 ERA in 42 games, but if he is able to regain his previous form, this will be an excellent addition for the Braves. To acquire Brach, Atlanta used international bonus pool money which they wouldn’t have been able to use anyway, thanks to a penalty handed down from MLB thanks to the John Coppolella scandal, where the Braves circumvented baseball’s international signing rules. The additional money will give the Orioles the chance to rebuild one of baseball’s weakest farm systems.

Braves Grade: A+

Orioles Grade: A

RP Roberto Osuna to the Astros for SP Hector Perez, RP Ken Giles, SP David Paulino

Osuna is currently serving a 75-game suspension for Domestic Violence, but he is one of the most successful young closers in the game, saving 104 games with a 2.87 ERA in his first four years in baseball. Osuna has only appeared in 15 games this year due to his suspension, but he is eligible for the postseason and will bolster Houston’s bullpen after their disastrous Ken Giles experiment. After pitching to a 1.56 ERA in 113 games for the Phillies, Giles was traded to the Astros and has struggled mightily in his three years in H-town. After amassing a 4.99 ERA in 34 games for the Astros this year, Giles was embarrassingly sent down to the minors three weeks ago, and he will certainly benefit from a change in scenery. On one side, Osuna is an accomplished closer at just 23 and under club control until 2021, but on the other side, his Astro teammates, especially Justin Verlander, have been extremely critical of domestic violence issues in the past, and may not welcome him as the prized deadline acquisition that his ability suggests he is. Perez slots in as the Blue Jays #11 prospect and Paulino will serve as a solid depth addition with back-end starting rotation ability.

Astros Grade: A-

Blue Jays Grade: B+

Adam Duvall to the Braves for RP Lucas Sims, LF Preston Tucker, RP Matt Wisler

After back-to-back 30 homer seasons and an All-Star appearance in 2016, the Reds sent outfielder Adam Duvall to the Braves. Duvall has struggled to a .205 batting average this year, but Statcast metrics show he’s making hard contact more consistently than last year, and his BABIP of .244 — closer to his career average of .245 — suggests he has been unlucky and there is room for him to grow. Duvall is under team control until 2021 and seems like a great replacement for 34-year old Nick Markakis, who will be a free agent this winter. Sims and Wisler have struggled for the Braves, but both pitchers are young and can act as starters or relievers. Tucker has been serviceable for the Braves in 62 games this year, and will slot easily into either a starting or bench role for the Reds. Duvall is a promising player despite his struggles this year, and the Braves have made yet another great acquisition in trading for him.

Braves Grade: A

Reds: C

Ian Kinsler to the Red Sox for RP Ty Buttrey and RP Williams Jerez

Kinsler, the longtime Rangers and Tigers second baseman, has struggled this year with a .239 batting average for the Angels, but is a valuable acquisition at a low cost for the Red Sox, who have struggled to replace Dustin Pedroia’s production at second base. Pedroia has played just three games for Boston this year and is not expected to return to the team this year. His replacements Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt, although solid offensively, have been liabilities defensively. Still a great defensive second baseman at 36 years old, Kinsler has been a plus on the defensive end for his whole career, registering a 1.4 defensive WAR this year against Nunez and Holt, who have combined for -1.2 defensive WAR. Although Kinsler is not his former self anymore, he has rebounded in July, batting .320, hopefully signaling a change. Kinsler will slide into an almost-everyday role with the Red Sox, allowing Eduardo Nunez to slide to third base — where he is much more defensively proficient — while Rafael Devers is injured. Although Buttrey and Jerez have pitched well out of the bullpen in Triple-A, they are not high-level prospects and are easily replaceable by Boston. This trade benefits both sides, especially Boston, where Kinsler will slide in perfectly.

Red Sox Grade: A+

Angels: B+

RP Keone Kela to the Pirates for SP Taylor Hearn, Player to be Named Later

In a deal that will help both sides, Keone Kela heads to the Pirates as they make a heated pursuit of the NL Wild card, and Taylor Hearn heads to the Rangers, immediately becoming a top ten prospect for the Texas farm system. Kela has been excellent this season, converting 24 of 25 save chances with a 3.44 ERA and a 2.97 FIP, suggesting he has been even better than his numbers show. The Pirates have hopefully acquired their closer for the future in Kela, who will not be a free agent until 2022. In return, the Rangers received Taylor Hearn, a lefthander with a great fastball in the high 90s, able to pitch as a starter or a reliever. The Rangers do not need a great closer as they rebuild, but Kela has flourished in his first year of closing and is under team control for three more years. Hearn is less only sixteen months younger than Kela, so the Rangers are not getting much younger with this trade. Although Hearn is a valuable pickup, trading Kela so soon after discovering him could be a mistake.

Pirates Grade: A-

Rangers Grade: C

Thanks to MLB.com for prospect rankings and the Sporting News for a list of the transactions of the trade deadline. As always, many thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for all these helpful stats. Part II with the trades from deadline day will be released shortly.

At the start of the season, I posed the question of whether we would see another record number of three true outcomes specialists in 2018. We knew then that the rates of three true outcomes had been steadily increasing through 2017, and that the number of three true outcome specialists peaked at 17 specialists in 2017. The all-star break seems like a good time to check in and see if we are on track for another record breaking season.

Who are the Three True Outcome Specialists?

The three true outcomes rate for the average major league batter has been steadily increasing in recent years. Along with this average change, there has been a more unusual batter who takes an extreme approach at the plate resulting in a dominant three true outcome season. This is a hitter, in the mold of Rob Deer, who has at least 49% of their plate appearances result in either a home run, a strikeout, or a walk.  The number of specialists has been increasing since the 1990s, and peaked last year with 17 three true outcome specialists.

At the 2018 All-Star Break, the number of specialists sits at 10.  Table 1 lists the 10 three true outcome specialists at the All-Star break.  It includes home run, walk, and strikeout rates, and the combined three true outcomes rate.  I got here pretty easily: For each player with at least 170 plate appearances, I added their home runs, strikeouts and walks in a season and divided that by the number of plate appearances.  That provides the proportion of three outcomes plate appearances for each player. The table includes all those batters that crossed the 49% threshold.

Table 1. Three Outcomes Specialists at the All-Star Break

There are some familiar faces on this list: Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, Mike Zunino, and Kyle Schwarber were on the list last year. And some new ones: Max Muncy has found his power and been a surprise for the Dodgers this year.  Ian Happ’s and Matt Davidson’s newfound plate discipline has moved him onto this list of specialists as has Robinson Chirinos lack of plate discipline. Perhaps seeing Bryce Harper on this list is most surprising. His strikeout rate is about 5% higher than his typical rate, moving him onto the list.

Looking at the MLB Averages is also interesting.  Historically, the 2018 rates of home runs, strikeouts and walks are high – but they are currently the same rates as 2017.  So, maybe, we won’t see an increase in the average three true outcomes rates in 2018. There is still a lot of season left, so too soon to reach any conclusions.

What about those hitters who were on the list of three true outcomes specialists last year, but didn’t make it at the All-Star break?  Table two lists those batters.

Table 2. 13 Previous Three True Outcomes Specialists

The story in this table is plate appearances. First, Matt Olson and Eric Thames are getting their at bats because they are decent hitters. Olson is not quite living up to his late call up last season, Thames is looking slightly better than 2017; both are making contributions. Thames has missed time with injuries this year. A few more of these hitters are not getting at bats for health reasons: Drew Robinson, Jabari Blash and Mike Napoli are all down with injuries. The remaining players are not getting at bats because of a lack of contribution to the team.  Jake Marisnick, Miguel Sano, Keon Broxton, and Cameron Rupp all either started the season in Triple A or were optioned during the season.  Chris Carter and Ryan Schimpf were released by the Twins and Angels respectively. Being a three true outcomes specialist can result in some attention, but it is can also be a vulnerable approach, particularly when strikeout rates get out of hand. MLB teams have become more tolerant of high strikeout rates, but they have their limits.

Chris Davis and Alex Avila are the unusual cases in Table 2.  They are both getting their at bats despite very high strikeout rates. As long as the Orioles and Diamondbacks see some value in them, we might expect them, and perhaps some other newcomers, to make it to the list of three true outcomes specialists at the end of the season.

Look up and down the Houston Astros roster and it’s difficult to imagine them getting any better. They’re on pace to win 105 games, which is four more than even last year. But it’s possible. Though their pitching staff is the best in the league and maybe one of the best ever, their offense has been more middling. And it may start at the top with George Springer.

So far Springer has registered 1.6 fWAR and a 113 wRC+ in 97 games. While being 13% better than league average is pretty good, it’s not quite what you’d expect from him. Last year he surged to a 140 wRC+ mark. Even if you account for regression, you don’t account for him being almost 30% less than the batter he was just a season ago.

Right now the projections love him. He’s pegged to account for at least 1.5 wins for the rest of the year, in less than 60 games, and a wRC+ of at least 128. And remember that as projection systems evaluate a player’s true underlying talent level at a given point in time, they’re also conservative in nature. You could somewhat reasonably argue, then, that Springer could possibly manage an even bigger rebound here as the season resumes.

But there’s a catch with projection systems. They might capture a player’s true talent level, but by nature they can’t capture all that goes into preparing for that player. Maybe based on George Springer’s past body of work, compared to players of his ilk and age, he really is a hitter who is at least 30% better than his peers right now. But based on how pitchers have attacked him this year, he hasn’t been, and there’s one reason that sticks out as to why.

Pitchers are locating their four-seamers to Springer differently this year. On the left, you see where they spotted the pitch to him in 2017, mostly outside. Springer is 6’3 and looks every bit of it in the box. He has an upright stance. When he gets ready to swing he becomes relatively compact. His arms move down while his hands load and he has a moderately  pronounced leg kick. Given how he condenses himself, it’s possible pitchers felt there was an opportunity to attack away because of how it would take him more time to expend the energy to get there on their fastest pitch.

But if you look on the right side of the heat maps above, you’ll see the fastballs Springer swung at. He didn’t have difficulty getting to those pitches and you can see why for yourself if you get out of your seat and pretend to take a swing as you read this next part. (That’s what I did. It was fun!) Go ahead. Stare down Luis Severino or Jacob deGrom fearlessly as you ready yourself for what’s about to come. Make sure you’re in an upright stance. Slowly coil up as you get ready to take your cut. Follow through.

Notice where your arms and legs go? They explode out. They pretty much have to, right? Now imagine you’re a top tier athlete on a top team in the world, like George Springer is, and you can see how he’d shred fastballs on the outer half. He accumulated a 17.4 pitch value against four-seamers last season, which was good for 15th in all of the Majors.

So, the solution? Try to take advantage of the way Springer coils up. Bust him inside some more to keep his body and bat from exploding through the pitch. And so far this season, it’s working. He’s managed only a 6.9 pitch value against four-seamers so far. That’s still relatively nice, and top 40 in the Majors. His wOBA against four-seamers this year is still .381, but that’s down nearly 50 points from last year. In many ways he’s been perfectly cromulent, even if a far cry from the top six outfielder and top 20 hitter in all of baseball he was in 2017.  

Pitch values come with caveats. They can be deceptive because on the surface they look like they report only on one specific pitch, but the value of each pitch is often heavily tied to how it’s sequenced with others. We don’t immediately know what set up the performance of the pitch we’re evaluating, and that’s a big deal. However, Springer has seen and offered at pretty much the same volume of four-seamers as just a season ago. Pitchers have merely changed where he’s seeing it.

If he’s still favoring swinging at the fastballs on the outer half, it’s probably because he knows he can crush them. Just last night, on June 21, poor Noe Ramirez served him a pitch right in his happy zone and the Angels paid dearly. The Astros are a smart club. Maybe they’ve tried or are brainstorming possible solutions to Springer getting crowded with heat. Maybe they’ haven’t and they’re just telling him to keep on keeping on because it’s not like he’s turned into a liability. But good gravy, imagine if he figures it out before October.

—

Pitch percentages and heat maps from Statcast. All other data from FanGraphs.

Shohei Ohtani is an interesting dude, for so many reasons. For inquisitive baseball fans, he provides all sorts of fodder. I am a big fan of Ohtani.  He has many special characteristics, which go beyond being a two-way player.

One of those characteristics is that he chose to come over to MLB two years before he could have signed for boatloads of cash. Had Ohtani waited until after the 2019 season, he could have signed for whatever a team was willing to offer. By coming over this past offseason, he could only sign a uniform player contract. The same contract given to draftees or international free agents as young as 16. Ohtani did receive a few million in the form of a signing bonus, but it was uncontroverted that he was not making his decision based on money.

There was talk that Ohtani might start this season in the minor leagues. He struggled in spring training, and the Angels could have extracted an extra year of team control by keeping him down for about three weeks. This type of service time manipulation is common if not totally accepted by baseball pundits. But it would be particularly unseemly for the Angels, having won the lottery when Ohtani chose them, to take part in this type of chicanery.

The Angels put Ohtani on the opening day roster, and if you were alive and even a casual baseball fan, you know what happened next. Ohtani lit the world on fire as both a pitcher and a hitter from the start. Ohtani throws a triple digit fastball and it was always assumed that he was going to end up providing more value as a pitcher. But through the first half of the season, Ohtani has a 145 wRC+ in 157 plate appearances. He has identical 1.1 fWARs from both sides.

However, Ohtani’s storybook beginning to his career has taken a major blow. His pitching elbow is possibly in need of Tommy John surgery. It is possible that surgery is inevitable the Angels are simply waiting until the end of the season. From a “maximizing utility” standpoint, this makes a lot of sense. If Ohtani were to go under the knife right now, he’d most likely not pitch until 2020, and would certainly be off the mound for a large portion of next season even under the best-case scenario. He would also be unable to hit for several months, probably the rest of this season. The Angels would lose Ohtani the pitcher for 2018 and 2019 and Ohtani the hitter for 2018. However, if he has Tommy John surgery at the end of the season, he can continue to hit, and the most likely outcome is that he still just misses one additional season as a pitcher. He could continue to be Ohtani the hitter in 2018 and in 2019. *

* It’s also possible that by waiting Ohtani could avoid the surgery altogether

Now comes the fun(?) part. If Ohtani were a pitcher the same way that every other major league pitcher is a pitcher, he would be on the disabled list while he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Importantly for his financial future, his service time clock would continue to run. There would be no risk of him being sent down to the minors and having his clock stop. * This raises the question: what happens if Ohtani the hitter struggles mightily and the Angels feel it is necessary to send him to the minors? Now, this seems unlikely to happen, both because of Ohtani’s strong offensive start and the solid history of top Japanese imports performing at the major league level. While this is certainly something that could happen, I am approaching this mostly as a thought experiment.

* Ohtani would need to spend 20 or more days in the minor leagues in order to lose major league service time that would push back his free agency year

I am a lawyer, but far from an expert in this area. The best I can do is to review the collective bargaining agreement and see if there are any provisions that might shed light on this. The basic rule about demoting injured players is far from detailed: “Players who are injured and not able to play may not be assigned to a Minor League club.” A player who believes his assignment is unjust can file a grievance. I didn’t read the entire CBA, but I don’t see anything else in it that would address this situation.

By the plain reading, you could say that the Angels would be perfectly within their rights. Ohtani would not be “injured and unable to play.” While he could very much say he is injured, he is also very much able to play. Ohtani could argue that the spirit of the rule would not allow him to lose service time due to the fact he is a superior enough player that it was at least thought that he could continue to be valuable as a major league player even without pitching. You shouldn’t be able to “punish” someone because they are better than everyone else. As a matter of plain fairness, this argument is as solid as an Ohtani bomb deep into the Southern California night.

Again, Ohtani seems unlikely to make this scenario a reality. But Brendan McKay is coming up the Rays system. It is possible we will see more two-way players. Looking beyond just Ohtani, it is very much conceivable that this could become an issue at some point. It makes sense for MLB and the union to figure this out before it becomes an embarrassing (international) incident.