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Just How Valuable Was Chad Green?

For all the surprises the 2017 season had to offer, one of the more pleasant ones had to be the rise of Chad Green.

Once a starting pitcher, Chad Green was converted to a relief pitcher this season. It was, for technical reasons, his first full season. His repertoire of the four-seam fastball, cutter, and slider combine for a nasty usage of all three. While he did throw his fastball 69.4% of the time this past season, the slider made way with a 22.1% usage rate — the cutter came in at just 7.8% of the time.

Some contributing factors to Green’s remarkable season could be that he was able to change his approach from a guy preparing to go five, maybe six innings, to one who could use his best stuff for two or so. That allows him to throw harder, and riskier, for shorter amounts of time.

Green’s average velocity on his FB:

  • 2016- 94.3 mph
  • 2017- 95.8 mph

The fact that Green was able to focus in on his pitches more led to his posting a fantastic season. Green improved in every category possible, and put himself in the elite group of relief pitchers that baseball has to offer.

2016: (MLB: 45.2 IP/ 8 GS)

  • 10.25 K/9 to a 2.96 BB/9, with a 2.36 HR/9
  • 41.3% GB rate / 25.0% HR-FB rate
  • .269 BAA & 1.40 WHIP

2017: (MLB: 69.0 IP/ 1 GS)

  • 13.43 K/9 to a 2.22 BB/9, with a 0.52 HR/9
  • 26.4% GB rate / 6.7% HR-FB rate
  • .145 BAA & .74 WHIP

What that indicates is that Green’s pitches were better utilized when he was able to throw them at their maximum ability. Of course, naturally, with a smaller usage, there is a smaller room for error.

The biggest improvement for Green was his HR allowance. In 2016, over the 45.2 IP, he gave up 12 HR. In 2017, over 69.0 IP, he gave up a mere four. Green was able to strike out dramatically more batters, while lowering his GB rate from 41.3% in 2016 to 26.4% in 2017. Essentially speaking, Green just didn’t allow people to get on base.

In 2016, he faced 198 batters. He gave up 49 hits, walked 15 batters, and hit another. 55 batters allowed on base, leading to 26 earned runs. That equates to approximately a 28% allowance of runners on base.

In 2017, however, he faced 253 batters. He surrendered 34 hits, walking 17, and hitting two. 53 batters allowed on base, leading to 14 earned runs. That equals out to roughly 21% of runners on base.

Being only 26 years old, and the Yankees having him for the next four full seasons under their terms, it looks like the future is bright for Chad Green.

Green’s value was astounding this season. The ability to use him for multiple innings allowed the Yankees to use him for extended appearances, and they gave him the same rest as the other arms. What separates him from his teammate, David Robertson, is that Green (thanks to his SP past) was able to go multiple innings on command.

GREEN 2017 value & breakdown:

  • Green appeared in 40 games, throwing 69.0 IP (1.7 IP per)
  • His RAR (Runs Above Replacement) was 23.5
  • 2.4 WAR
  • BABIP Wins- 0.6

ROBERTSON 2017 value & breakdown:

  • D-Rob appeared in 61 games (CWS/NYY) throwing 68.1 IP (1.1 IP per)
  • His RAR was 18.5
  • 1.9 WAR
  • BABIP Wins- 0.8

While David Robertson is nominated for AL Reliever of the Year (along with Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles), Chad Green is seemingly receiving no love from the MLB.

Kimbrel has to be most deserving of the three, posting an amazing 32.1 RAR and a 3.3 WAR.

Giles, on the other hand, is the worst of the three, and he posted numbers worse than Green. (18.1 RAR with a 1.8 WAR)

Chad Green was the Yankees’ go-to, or so it seemed. Whenever they were in a jam, Green would be brought in. Initially used as a sixth starter, or the “fifth-inning guy,” Green established himself as a huge piece in their bullpen.

Back in December of 2015, when the Yankees sent Justin Wilson over to Detroit for a pair of prospects, the word around the MLB was that it was a rather lopsided trade, in the Tigers’ favor. Wilson came off of a great season for the Yankees, in which he posted a 3.10 ERA over 74 appearances. Despite this, Cashman stuck to his guns and reinforced the fact that the Yankees needed SP help, more than another elite closer. When the trade was completed, the Yankees received Detroit’s number 6 and 19 overall team prospects. (Green was 19.)

Chad Green may not be the most exciting player the Yankees have traded for, but he sure may be the best valued. With him being under team control for the next four seasons, and the fact that he is still young and working on his offspeed pitches, it opens the way for future improvements. Can Green be better next season? We all saw what happened with Luis Severino when he improved his secondary pitches.

In Severino’s second season (2016):

  • 55.9% Fastball
  • 9.9% Changeup


  • 51.4% Fastball
  • 13.5% Changeup

Although it’s not a drastic change, the fact that he was able to regain that command and control over his changeup made way for him to catch batters off guard more, and change the eye levels. Green’s spread is not nearly as spread out as Severino’s is, and being a relief pitcher, it doesn’t have to be. Green’s fastball is thrown, again, 69.4% of the time.

If he can work on his cut fastball a little bit more, the possibilities can expand for Green. The swings and misses out of the zone would be greater, and the contact percentages against lefties would go down, because he would jam them in on the hands. Having the luxury of playing alongside Robertson, who throws a mean cutter (inherited from Mariano Rivera), and being able to surround himself with the amazing ensemble of the bullpen crew the Yankees have put together bodes well for Chad Green.

During the months of September and October, Green posted a 0.74 ERA, allowing just one earned run (not counting the postseason). He faced 44 batters, and gave up just seven hits, against his 17 strikeouts. Green never gave up more than four earned runs in any month of the entire season, and surrendered seven runs in both the first- and second-half splits. It is clear that Green was focused from the moment he came out of the pen.

While he only pitched 2.1 IP in “high-leverage” situations (27.0 in “medium” and 39.2 in “low”), I wouldn’t let that sway his stats in a negative connotation. Look for that to change this upcoming season, especially with Betances’ mental struggles. If I were to speak blindly right now, Chad Green would be my seventh-inning guy, with Robo in the eighth, and Chapman in the ninth. There should be a dramatic change in terms of “high-leverage” innings pitched for Chad.

Needless to say, Chad Green is a rather remarkable story, being that he was considered an add-on in the trade that was headlined by Luis Cessa. When the trade initially happened, Green was said to be the guy that “bridged the gap” for Bryan Mitchell if he were to struggle.

Chad Green will look to build on his remarkable first full season in the “Pinstripe Pen of Doom,” and help guide New York to that AL pennant next year.

The Fall of Troy Tulowitzki

The 2017 season marked a career best for many players. As the season commenced we saw records broken, position depth expanded, and some truly remarkable moments.

Let me tell you why Troy Tulowitzki’s “elite level” is most definitely a thing of the past.

The shortstop position, specifically, is arguably the deepest in all of baseball, with names like Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Francisco Lindor bolstering the young crop of incredible talent. Of course there are also the rising stars in Didi Gregorius, Xander Bogaerts, and Addison Russell. Yet the one name who seems to be disappearing more and more each season is Troy Tulowitzki.

Tulowitzki is one of baseball’s best players over the past decade, and for a while he was heralded as the best shortstop in the league. From the year 2007 to 2015, in a Rockies uniform, Tulo wRC+’ed less than 100 once. In his two full “seasons” with Toronto he’s already wRC+’ed a new career low, 78.

Whether it’s the “Coors effect” or not, there is no denying that Tulowitzki was one of baseball’s finest players, and one of the more exciting to watch whilst with the Rockies — Coors Field in itself has a 27% OPS change due to its atmosphere, which gives a huge advantage to hitters.

Evidently so; Tulo’s road splits compared to his home ones were unbalanced.

Tulowitzki’s Road vs. Home OPS splits from 2007-2015

  • 2007
    • HOME- .960 OPS
    • AWAY- .719 OPS
  • 2008
    • HOME- .704 OPS
    • AWAY- .758 OPS
  • 2009
    • HOME- 1.000 OPS
    • AWAY- .859 OPS
  • 2010
    • HOME- 1.034 OPS
    • AWAY- .863 OPS
  • 2011
    • HOME- .948 OPS
    • AWAY- .881 OPS
  • 2012 *played 50 total games
    • HOME- .793 OPS
    • AWAY- .908 OPS
  • 2013
    • HOME- 1.008 OPS
    • AWAY- .848 OPS
  • 2014
    • HOME- 1.246 OPS
    • AWAY- .811 OPS
  • 2015 *half season w/ COL
    • HOME- .831 OPS
    • AWAY- .697 OPS

Despite the lopsided splits, he still posted great numbers each season. However, the huge gap between his OPS per season on the splits should’ve raised some eyebrows, no?

During his tenure with the Rockies, Tulowitzki earned four All-Star appearances, two Gold Gloves, and two Silver Slugger awards, putting together a rather staggering resumé.

He posted a combined WAR with Colorado of 35.5, and posted a 5.0 WAR or better six times, making him one of the most consistent players in the league. So where or when did it seem to change?

The one large setback in Tulo’s Colorado career, and his biggest issue now, is his health. In his 12-year career, he’s only played 131+ games twice. He’s had issues staying on the field, and for that reason should be called one of the worst contracts in recent MLB memory. His Toronto days are an ugly reflection of his once-great Colorado ones.

Tulo since joining Toronto:

  • 987 PA over 238 games
  • .727 OPS (over three seasons)
  • 101 wRC+ (2015 half with COL), 103 wRC+ (2016), 78 wRC+ (2017)
  •  3.3 WAR (total over three seasons)


It can be argued that Troy Tulowitzki is washed up. His lack of production and inability to stay healthy make him more of a burden than an advantage for Toronto.

Tulowitzki was traded (in the summer of 2015) for prospects Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, and Jesus Tinoco, as well as Jose Reyes, yet he has not been anywhere near the player Toronto was expecting to have for a few years.

Needless to say, it looks like the Rockies made the smart move offloading their star player.

His contract with the Blue Jays is a huge blemish on their team, which is full of horrid contracts. He signed a 10-year, $158-million deal with the Rockies back in 2011, and made $20 million with the Blue Jays this season. He appeared in just 66 games.

This is how his salary pays out until the end of the 2021 season:

2018- $20 million

2019- $20 million

2020- $14 million

2021- $15 million option, $4 million buyout

For a player that was already questioned by many because he had the luxury of playing for the Colorado Rockies, earning the initial contract he was given was a great deal if he stayed in a Rockies uniform for his entire career. However, some things are not meant to be.

Tulowitzki’s player value during 2016 and 2017

  • Batting: 1.8 (2016) / -.7 (2017)
  • Base Running: -2.7 (2016) / -3.5 (2017)
  • Fielding: 4.9 (2016) / -1.1 (2017)
  • Positional: 5.5 (2016) / 2.9 (2017)
  • Offense: -0.8 (2016) / -10.5 (2017)
  • Replacement: 16.4 (2016) / 8.0 (2017)

For context, here are Carlos Correa’s past two seasons:

  • Batting: 17.9 (2016) / 30.7 (2017)
  • Base Running: 4.0 (2016) / 1.6 (2017)
  • Fielding: -2.3 (2016) / -1.7 (2017)
  • Positional: 7.0 (2016) / 4.8 (2017)
  • Offense: 21.9 (2016) / 32.4 (2017)
  • Replacement: 19.9 (2016) / 14.9 (2017)

There are clear indications that Tulo has lost a step. He didn’t even play a single game the entire second half of the season, after being placed on the 10-day DL with a hamstring issue. His health, bat speed, and glove work are all in question.

A key contributor to his demise is claimed to be the turf in Rogers Centre. Transitioning from the usual field in Colorado to a false grass in an indoor stadium midway through your age-31 season can be rather tough on the joints and muscles.

While Tulowitzki has had his moments in a Blue Jays uniform, there is no way that this was a move for the future, despite what general manager Alex Anthopoulos said following the trade back in 2015.

Anthopoulos on July 25th, 2o15: “I just think we got better, for the short and for the long term. Ideally, you don’t shop in the rental market; that doesn’t mean we’ll rule it out, we’re open to it, but our preference is always for guys who are under control and will be here for a while.” — “This is a long-term acquisition.”

Since acquiring Tulowitzki, the Blue Jays have been seemingly getting worse each season. While this may in no way be Tulo’s fault, the fact that his production has dipped drastically does indicate his lack of contribution.

  • 2015 record: 93-69
  • 2016 record: 89-73
  • 2017 record: 76-86

The move “for the future” looks to be more of a “weight from the past” if anything. I find that Troy Tulowitzki was one of the best talents that baseball had seen, three or so years ago. Now he is holding his team back, and should be viewed as a washed-up player.

While Tulo’s power is still there — he posted hard-hit rates over 30% each season with Toronto — it is clear that he cannot perform anywhere near what he once was able to do. Whether you blame that on his injuries, the Coors effect, or whatever else it may be, there is a clear line that Tulo has passed into the downfall of his career.

Troy Tulowitzki’s value is diminishing yearly, and when it’s all said and done, the possibility of Toronto eventually just terminating his contract seems more and more likely. With each swing of the bat, and 0-for-4 performance, Tulo is just shooting himself in the foot. A once greatly valued and important player, he’s now a mediocre-tier shortstop, based on value. His age isn’t helping him — neither is the turf — and the fact that he is now seemingly slowing down in the field as well means the future is looking dimmer and dimmer for Tulo.

Although it can be said that it is “too early” to judge this trade, based on the lack of performance history for the players Colorado has received, it can be said that they offloaded the contract of Tulowitzki, and have seen better days because of it.

With his fantastic career behind him, Tulo most definitely will not be calling it quits. Because of his immense contract, and money he has pouring in, the long-tenured SS will likely be seeing more and more time off the field, and as a DH rather than out there every day.

At this point in his career, seeing as to how he seems to be frequently bouncing on and off the DL, Tulo’s value is diminishing each season. The fact that the Blue Jays still are set to owe him $58 million over the next three seasons, and how his “One Trade” clause has been used already by Colorado, does not sit well for them. While he sells tickets and jerseys, no one wants to come watch someone go 0-for-4 over the course of only playing 60 games. With the fall of Tulo comes the rise of the extremely talented pool of IF players that MLB has to offer.

We should be grateful for Tulo’s production over the past several years, but it is time for his once reserved place among MLB’s top shortstops to be dismissed.

Why Giancarlo Stanton Is Still Not a Top-10 Position Player

Although this season for Giancarlo Stanton was one for the record books, this monumental display of power should not be enough to warrant a spot in the top 10 of baseball’s best position players.

While Stanton did have an impressive season to say the least, and with an NL MVP seemingly locked, he wasn’t even the best in the NL alone. With the NL being the easier of the two leagues, most certainly, it seemed that Stanton had every advantage there could’ve been given — aside from playing in Coors for 81 games.

Here’s how his 2017 season fared:

59 HR and 132 RBI paired with 32 2B. with a .281 / .376 / .631 slash line (1.007 OPS) 6.9 WAR / and a whopping 156 wRC+

Mind you, these numbers are indeed phenomenal, but they are not deserving of being named “Top 10” in baseball, let alone “NL MVP.” Giancarlo did what no one had done in over a decade, and that is hit 59 homers (Ryan Howard hit 58 in 2006). He surpassed every personal best of his entire career, and rewrote his own book — which was filled with injury questions, as well as his inability to hit for average.

However, factoring in the huge increase in the amount of home runs hit this season, Stanton’s monumental 59 is slightly less impressive.


2017- 42.3 % (+2.1 %)

2016- 40.2 % (+2.9 %)

2015- 37.3 % ( / )


2017- 6,105 (+495)

2016- 5,610 (+701)

2015- 4,909 ( / )

With this being known, there were 41 players with over 30 homers, as well as Kris Bryant, Bryce Harper, Jose Ramirez, and Mike Napoli being notched with 29.

Giancarlo Stanton’s career numbers should not boost him to the top-10 consideration, so why would one season justify such? Stanton is a career .268 hitter, and never hit more than 37 homers in a single go (although yes, he never played more than 150 games). Even with his AS recognition in 2014, in which he slugged 37 to pair with a 6.3 WAR season, he wasn’t even considered top-5 then. The drastic injuries that Stanton has faced, as well as his lack of defensive abilities and base-running abilities, mean his value is hurt. Even for the 2017 NL MVP, Stanton shouldn’t win.

59 HR- 1st in NL

132 RBI- 1st in NL

.281 AVG- 24th in NL

.376 OBP- 14th in NL

.631 SLG- 1st in NL

6.9 WAR- 2nd in NL

156 wRC+- 2nd in NL

Although Stanton did indeed have the edge in the majority of these categories, it is seen that aside from his impressive slugging percentage, he was not even top-10 in any other categories. If we’re being honest with each other, Anthony Rendon, Justin Turner, and Joey Votto all put together more impressive and stand-alone seasons.

Rendon- .301 / .403 / .533 slash with a 6.9 WAR and a 143 wRC+ over 605 PA at 3B

Turner- .322 / .415 / .530 slash with a 5.1 WAR and a 151 wRC+ over 533 PA at 3B

Votto- .320 / .454 / .578 slash with a 6.6 WAR (1B gets brutalized for WAR) and a 165 wRC+ over 707 PA (record number for walks taken in a season)

However, this discussion is not about whether or not Stanton should win MVP. It is whether or not Stanton should be considered a top-10 position player in the game of baseball. In my opinion the list currently stands as such:

  1. Mike Trout
  2. Jose Altuve
  3. Bryce Harper
  4. Paul Goldschmidt
  5. Kris Bryant
  6. Joey Votto
  7. Josh Donaldson
  8. Manny Machado
  9. Buster Posey
  10. Daniel Murphy

(with Rizzo, Judge, Lindor, Gary Sanchez, Freeman, Corey Seager, and Nolan Arenado in the territory)

The reasoning behind this list is both the strength of their position, as well as their career history and trajectories. Trout is easily the greatest player in the game, and shows no signs of slowing down. Altuve is the best infielder in the game right now, and I don’t see him ever hitting under .300 for the rest of his career. Harper is younger than Trout, and has already accomplished things that no player can imagine, and possesses five tools to his game. Goldschmidt, like Votto later on, is the epitome of consistency. Bryant, Donaldson, and Machado are all in a different breed of third basemen (Nolan not far behind) with their amazing offensive production, and defensive splits. Posey is the best catcher in baseball, and hits supremely well for average. And Daniel Murphy is the same as Posey, where he is a phenomenal contact hitter, with the power upside. With the other players in the area, all of them are young with upside, and their minor-league track records mixed with their current production at the major-league level lead me to believe they’re the real deal.

Stanton may barely crack T20 in my eyes. With the fact that he is too slow and lumbering in the basepaths, mixed with his horrid defensive splits (10 DRS, below average/ 6.7 UZR, below average/ -.5 dWAR), he’s a one-dimensional player. Stanton clearly is a generational talent, and possesses power like no other in baseball, but with his poor attitude and colossal contract, he should be labeled overrated. He is making nearly 30 million dollars per year, and for a player who has only surpassed a 6 WAR twice over his eight seasons, it makes you question how truly valuable he is.

According to Marlins new CEO and part owner, Derek Jeter, the Marlins are “in a rebuilding process,” which Stanton responded to with “I want no part in a rebuild.”

What does the future hold for Giancarlo Stanton and his massive $220 million that is due? The world will just have to sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

Trevor Rosenthal, The Cardinals’ MVP?

Now, with the 2017 MLB regular season behind us, the offseason frenzy is in full swing already for those teams that didn’t make the playoffs. The biggest glaring issue that was noticed by millions of fans nationwide, appears to be the inconsistency, and overall treachery of the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen arms. Now, coming out of this season, in which they missed the playoffs, questions are asked about the abilities of their bullpen arms, as well as the consistency of all of them. The acquisition of Brett Cecil at the beginning of the year had looked as if it could be a great signing; however, he was anything but that. Let that segue into today’s discussion, Trevor Rosenthal.

Being a Cardinals fan definitely has its ups and downs, and like most, I ride high with the ups, and fall hard with the downs. Trevor Rosenthal has always been a well-liked player of mine, and one that I not only love watching, but also feel is a vital piece to the Cardinals’ puzzle. After Trevor’s tumultuous 2016 season, and his bounce-back 2017 season, eyebrows are still raised over the 27-year-old’s future with the team. Rosenthal was placed in the bullpen, and used as a mid-innings guy, usually when the game was out of reach for either side in 2016. Again, he did not impress whatsoever, and the offseason that followed would be a “make it or break it” one for Trevor Rosenthal. 2017 was a different story for him, however. He was able to find himself, show his life and velocity on his fastball, clocking over 100 mph multiple times a game. Cutting his ERA down to a solid 3.40, with a 2.71 FIP. His K/9 rose from a 12.5 to a 14.3, and his BB/9 dropped from 6.5 to a 3.8. His abilities to strike out batters at an extremely efficient rate, and his cutting down on H/9, led him to regain the closer role on the team, especially with Oh’s horrendous season. Yet having to undergo Tommy John surgery ended Rosenthal’s season, and ultimately the Cardinals’ bullpen as a whole.

When Rosenthal was placed on the 10-Day DL, on August 16th, the Cardinals record stood at 61-59. They finished the season at 83-79, going 22-20 over their last two months of the season. Of those 20 losses, 13 of them were due to bullpen implosions. They clearly struggled mightily, and finished the year with a team bullpen record of 22-29, and a combined ERA of a 3.81, with the 12th-highest WAR (4.4). Although these stats may not seem out of line or too terrible, when watching the game itself, you could visibly see the struggles. Their starting pitching vastly outperformed that of their bullpen, and the tumultuous headlining of Oh among the others.

Now, my main debate here is to address the following question that is in the back of my mind, and one that I certainly feel is understandable in many ways, more so than most would think and see…

Is Trevor Rosenthal the Cardinals’ most valuable player?

Rosenthal is a guy who, as mentioned prior, was crucial to the Cardinals success. Yet saying the words “most valuable player” means that he was not literally their best player, but instead their most valuable. While their best player this season had to have been Tommy Pham on the offensive side (.306/.411/.520 slash with a 5.9 WAR and 148 wRC+), with their best on the pitching side being either Lance Lynn (11-8, 3.46 ERA, 7.39 K/9 over 186.1 IP) or Carlos Martinez (12-11, 3.64 ERA, 9.53 K/9 over 205 IP), it is still bold to say that none of them are the most valuable to the team. With Rosenthal, the Cardinals clearly relied heavily on him, as he appeared in 50 games, pitching 47.2 innings. With his fireball abilities, and fantastic strikeout ratio (again, 14.6 per nine), and his 1.6 WAR. Rosenthal’s importance cannot be simply stated with statistics. Watching him pitch, his demeanor and influence on the game is virtually unrivaled. When Rosenthal was brought on, the team and fans felt safer. He often came on, threw 12 to 18 pitches, and got the three outs needed. Despite this, his ERA was an inflated 3.40. His xFIP counters this at a more-than-respectable 2.55. When opponents got a hit off of him, it was most of the time lucky (.337 BABIP against a .206 BAA), and he rarely gave up the long ball (0.57 per nine, down from 0.67 the year before). So this leads you to believe that he was their savior, or their Andrew Miller even. Rosenthal’s value for the Cardinals will be truly tested come this offseason, as they gauge whether or not to gamble on their star bullpen arm, being that he is a free agent, or if they ride the roller coaster that is their current pen.

The reason behind Rosenthal’s team MVP claim is that despite Pham’s remarkable season, and even DeJong’s and Jose Martinez’s, they did not truly impact their team. The Cardinals offense ranked 13th in runs (761), 18th in home runs (196), and 9th in team offensive WAR (0.6). When it came down to it, their contributions weren’t enough to propel the Cardinals to a ton of runs per game, and they certainly did not do enough to lead the team to the playoffs. When Rosenthal was told he would miss the season, the whole fan base felt a seemingly sharp pain in their stomach. The Cardinals were still very much in the playoff picture, sitting only 4.5 games back of first in the NL Central, yet now the team and fans knew it was going to be a much rockier go at things. Rosenthal is the Cardinals’ hardest thrower, and has the best K/9 on the team. His contributions, and ability to get the team out of sticky situations, would no longer be usable, and his elbow is now going to be a question for the future. Yet, if you’re the St. Louis Cardinals, do you re-sign your clear-cut best bullpen arm, despite the TJ surgery? If not, who do you call upon or sign to replace him? Rosenthal is not a simple piece to replace, and his value is not matched by anyone else in the pen.