The game is on the line. It’s the bottom of the 9th inning, runners on first and second with two outs for the Mets. Justin Turner drives a fly ball off the bat at a speed of 88.3 mph. All hope for the Braves looks to be lost. In a blink of an eye or just .02 seconds Jason Heyward reacts and races out of center field traveling 18.5 mph to make an incredible diving catch to save the game.

This data set was one of the earlier Statcast recordings released to the public. It shows how important such information could potentially be to clubs in the future. Statcast can record data such as Acceleration, Route Efficiency, Reaction Time, Max Speed, Distance Covered and more. Although not all of their data is available to the public, I wanted to further explore how a baseball club would benefit by using this technology to research defensive analysis on improving a player’s abilities and a club’s defensive positioning.

First off, a team could compile this data and separate each player’s metrics by direction. Players move differently when heading in different areas of the field. It’s obviously easier to move forward than running backward, so having this data would allow teams to identify key information and make comparisons down the road. This can be done so by separating a fielder’s range into eight different quadrants (see graphic below). Once that is done, averages are created based for each quadrant. For instance, on average, what is Brett Gardner’s route efficiency when moving right? When moving in quadrant 6, what is Charlie Blackmon’s average reaction time?

Quadrants

#1: Forward

#2: Right Forward

#3: Right

#4: Back Right

#5: Backwards

#6: Back Left

#7: Left

#8: Left Forward

All this information, separated into different quadrants, will help in visualizing and breaking down defensive ability. When we have averages of acceleration, max speed and reaction time it can create a visual graphic or “Statcast Range” to witness how much distance a player could potentially cover in a certain amount of time. For example, lets say Jason Heyward’s average reaction time, acceleration and max speed when going left was .02 sec, 15.1 ft/s^2 and 18.5mph respectively. We know using this information Heyward could cover approximately 81 feet in 4 seconds. Time can help us represent a player’s estimated “Statcast range.” Each player’s range will look differently as they may show in which directions they are better at fielding. We can then use this analysis to compare fielders and also adjust defensive positioning.

This information will help guide a team in improving its players’ abilities. Teams can compare players much easier and understand what flaws coaches must look into fixing. For example, if a fielder has below-average route efficiency or reaction time to a certain part of the field, this information can be relayed to the coaching staff to further improve a player’s ability over time. In order to put this in perspective, Eugene Coleman of the University of Houston found that the average major-league ballplayer ran 24 feet per second. Using this number, having 0.04 more seconds means the average major leaguer can cover 11.5 more inches of ground. That’s almost a foot more and within only .04 seconds. If a ballplayer cuts down his reaction time, improves his route efficiency, and more, he would be able save time in covering several more feet of ground and thus improving his defensive ability.

To adjust a player’s defensive positioning, a team would have to combine its knowledge from this analysis with the understanding of a hitter’s batted balls. If they know a certain player is a pull hitter and hits to certain parts of the field, they can track his batted-ball locations, hang time and exit velocities to project areas in the field to which he may hit. Using what we know about a fielder’s Statcast metrics and “Statcast Range “ a player’s positioning could be adjusted. Doing so would lead to more accuracy. Improving the range of a team’s fielders will help save distance and time. The ability to increase production of more outs will provide a club with a better advantage for winning the game.

Baltimore Orioles first baseman, Chris Davis, is in the final year of his contract where he is making $12 mil/yr. At age 29, Davis has had a roller-coaster of a career starting in Texas where he burst onto the scene hitting 17 & 21 homers in his first two seasons. After which, he declined dramatically the next season hitting just under .200 for Texas. The following season he was traded to Baltimore where he revived his career and met his long-awaited potential. Today, Davis is one of the biggest power hitters in the game. He hit 53 homers in 2013 and 43 homers thus far in ’15. With Davis on the market we know clubs will be interested in his bat along with some other big FA names such as Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton and Alex Gordon.

The problem with Chris Davis is that he’s somewhat inconsistent. As a power hitter we can take a look at his slugging percentage, which will give us a better indication of his extra-base hits and power numbers. In seasons with at least 300+ at-bats he slugged an average of .507 but has a standard deviation of .091. It seems he has struggled to find consistency with his hitting, especially last season when he hit .194, with 23 homers and a slugging mark of .404. Compared to his .286/53 HR/.634 campaign in 2013, it is a huge difference.

If we take a look at a similar power hitter in Nelson Cruz, in his seasons with at least 300 ABs he slugged a similar average of .515 with a SD of only .04. Cruz is more of a model of consistency and has been less risky than Davis. Besides his one season of slugging .460, Cruz was always in the mid-.500s. Which is great for a power hitter. This is a big reason I am not a huge fan of Chris Davis. He just hasn’t shown a high level of consistency.

Another is his strikeout rate, which is extremely high. Since his first full season in Baltimore, Davis struck out 169, 199, 173, 182 times over the last 4 seasons. That’s good for a 31% K-Rate. Easily one of the worst in the league. His 196 strikeouts this season also happen to lead the league! Although he strikes out a ton, he gets the job done by driving in runs. Which at the end of the day could be seen as more important. Davis drove in 138 runs in 2013, 86 in ’14 and so far 110 in ’15. Did I mention he’s also eighth in the league with 118 runs created. A stat used to measure how valuable a player is to contributing runs to his team. So with great power comes great responsibility. Davis may strike out but he can really drive the ball. To me, he’s a high-reward/high-risk guy.

Interested teams:
Chris Davis is so valuable to the Orioles in terms of producing runs it’s hard to imagine him being let go without a fight. I think the Orioles will absolutely make him an offer. He’s already making $12m/yr and the O’s have a lot of money coming off the books this winter (Orioles’ Payroll). Only $41m is committed to next season ($119m payroll this year). So I can see them raising their price tag to about $18m/yr. The O’s are in a position to win now with Machado/Jones and a fairly young team so if they aren’t getting Davis they will no doubt be spending on others.

Other teams I can see having interest in Davis would be Seattle, San Diego, and Houston. Seattle is the kind of team to pay up for hitting; I could see them doing that with Davis as they did with Cano/Cruz. They need offense but they already have Trumbo at first base who has been decent. If they could move Trumbo I could see them making a play for Davis. Having Cano-Cruz-Davis would be quite powerful. They’re losing some money with Rodney & Jackson coming off the books. Seattle could be really interesting to watch.

The Padres I could see showing some interest but only if they lose Justin Upton and keep Wil Myers in CF. I think they’ll try to re-sign Upton who has had a good year playing in Petco Park. They’ve played Myers at 1B occasionally because of his injury concerns. With no DH, it’s harder to maneuver players around. Yet, again, AJ Preller is a magician so no one can really predict what he will do next. I think the Padres’ concern would be as Davis gets older he could regress on the defensive side of the ball and offensively. Petco Park is a pitcher’s palace so if Davis’ power dropped off his value would really take a hit. Putting Davis in as a full-time DH later in his career would help him maintain his power and consistency like it has for David Ortiz and A-Rod.

The Astros are a wild card I think. I said in the Cespedes post, they have a ton of cash to spend but only if they’re willing to spend it. They love guys who hit home runs. That’s basically their back end of the lineup (Carter, Valbuena, Rasmus). Their 1B Chris Carter ($4.5m) is a mini Chris Davis (low avg/high power) and he will be headed to arbitration. But in the offseason I think they will look to upgrade. They’ll obviously want to replace him with someone more improved. But Davis will cost them a lot; as a more analytics front office I’m not sure if they would see the value in paying up for him. Then again, pairing Davis, who hits lefty, with Correa/Altuve would really help them score runs along with mixing and matching their lineup.

Honorable Mentions: 
The last two teams I looked into with 1B trouble were the Cardinals and Pirates. St. Louis has Matt Adams coming off the DL and we’re not sure if he’s 100% just yet. We know Brandon Moss is not a long-term solution. The Pirates’ Pedro Alvarez has been super inconsistent with Pittsburgh. I think they’ll look to upgrade or float around some other names during the offseason. To be honest, I think Adam Lind would be a great addition to the Cardinals or Pirates instead of Davis. Adam Lind has a club option for $8m this offseason; he hits lefty and has had a solid year for Milwaukee. Overall, I don’t think these two teams will end up throwing money at Chris Davis but they may need 1B help next season. Its baseball, anything can happen.

In the end, I believe Davis enjoys playing in Baltimore. Due to his success there, the favorable ballpark and the DH factor I think he should stay. For his long-term career he should seriously consider staying in the AL with the DH factor. But I think another club will come in and make a play to acquire Davis. Power/RBIs come at a premium these days. Dan Duquette, GM of the Orioles, has experience and knows what he’s doing. If the price tag became too high I think he will definitely consider looking elsewhere on the market. Possibly an Adam Lind or Mark Trumbo.

Similar players such as Nelson Cruz signed a 4yr/57m (14m AVV) at age 34 and Albert Pujols signed a 10y/240m (24mAAV) in 2011. This sets a decent basis for Davis. In terms of his contract, I think Davis could get a 5-year deal worth about $18-21 million a year. His WAR for this season is 4.2 which puts him in the ballpark for this. So, it’s near our estimation. Personally, I would not give Davis $20m for 5 years. I think that’s going overboard but some teams are more into his skill than others. Power really comes at a premium in today’s game and Davis has a ton of it. I wouldn’t be surprised if it went to 6 years, but I just don’t see as many teams bidding on Davis right now. Scott Boras is his agent which will probably drive up the asking price. That may turn off the Orioles which could lead to another club coming in and swooping up Crash Davis. I think it’s favored to be the Orioles or Mariners come signing day.

Projection: 5 years, $100 million

In his first year of being eligible for arbitration, Matt Harvey will be able to substantially increase his salary for the 2016 season. Since beginning his career with the New York Mets in 2012, he has taken off to become an All-Star pitcher and fan favorite. His agent, Scott Boras, and the front office of the Mets will negotiate a one year salary based off his success in 2015. We’ll cut right to the chase and get into the hard numbers which will help us identify a rough projection of what we would expect Matt Harvey to receive this coming winter.

For more background on arbitration cases, read my previous article which discusses what is allowed/not allowed.

Overall performance:
Since 2012, Matt Harvey at age 26 has a career 2.59 ERA with 24-17 win/loss record. During his 2013 season Harvey was on a tear with a 2.27 ERA and became one of the leading NL Cy Young candidates before his injury. He also started the 2013 All-Star game which happened to be in Citi Field that year. After tearing his UCL and missing the entire 2014 season, Harvey came back strong this year and has pitched in 26 games thus far with a 2.88 ERA through 171 innings (11th best in league). He has a 12-7 win record and gives up less than a hit per inning (which ranks 9th in all of MLB). His WHIP is also one of the top 10 leagues best at 1.03 so he rarely allows runners on base and is averaging 8.6 strikeouts per game.

His W/L record this season does not show his true value, as the Mets started the first half of the season with one of the worst offenses in the league. After acquiring premier Major League hitters such as Yoenis Cespedes and Juan Uribe, the Mets have led the league in runs scored giving Mets starters big run support. Since those acquisitions, Harvey has pitched in 7 games winning 3 and losing 0. But the Mets’ bullpen blew Harvey’s lead in 3 other games in which he had outperformed the other team. Had it not been for a mediocre bullpen, Harvey could have been 6-0 in 7 games since August 1st. Clearly, Harvey is an ace to this team and is the backbone of a staff that has propelled the Mets to first place. He is a consistent pitcher and does not show signs of letting up even after having TJ surgery. Without Harvey, the Mets would lose a dominant, consistent ace which is obviously hard to come by.

Leadership/Public appeal:
As one of the older members on the New York Mets’ young pitching staff, Harvey is one the leaders on this team. After fighting his way back from injury rehab, he has become a consistent stronghold to the Mets’ rotation. Although Dr. Andrews, who performed Tommy John surgery on Harvey, has stated he should not exceed 180 innings due to his injury, Harvey is continuing to pitch on an innings watch to help the Mets win, especially through the postseason. Even if it hurts his chances at re-injuring himself, he is going out there to pitch.

As a leader, you need to show guts and heart; Harvey has definitely displayed that, battling out there everyday. Matt Harvey also is a fan favorite.  He ranks 9th in all of Major League Baseball and 1st with the Mets in 2015 top jersey sales. Many fans across the country are purchasing his jersey, thus showing how popular he is with people. When he returned to the mound this season to pitch, his first game back drew the biggest crowd (39,000 fans) for the second home game of the season since Citi Field opened in 2009.  That was 10,000 more fans in attendance than last year and 20,000 more than two years ago. During the 2013 All-Star game at Citi Field, which Harvey started, the Mets drew their most fans in history at 45,000. When he’s the night’s starting pitcher, fans flock to the ballpark to see Matt Harvey. At the same time he’s able to strikeout hitters, captivate a crowd and draw extra revenue in from ticket sales than if he wouldn’t be pitching. The Mets fans also have a popular nickname for Harvey: The Dark Knight. Symbolizing his leadership skills and journey back from Tommy John surgery, Harvey symbolizes the 2015 Mets team and has dramatically changed the mood of the fan base since his arrival/return. There’s no denying this.

Injury history:
As stated earlier, Matt Harvey missed all of 2014 season undergoing Tommy John surgery to repair his torn UCL. His recovery has been a success thus far but is always a case for concern in the future. But arbitration cases do not quite debate the future; only his previous success. He has shown no discomfort and has spent 0 days on the disabled list this year. To combat future problems the Mets’ pitching staff went to a 6-man rotation, which has caused Harvey (and other Mets pitchers) to skip a couple starts. Harvey has constantly said he feels good and does not show any signs of slowing down unless the Mets management shut him down.

Performance of club:
The Mets are currently in first place by 6 games and it looks like it will stay that way come October. Largely in part due to Harvey’s success on the mound, the Mets would not be in the same situation without him or his 12 wins this season. When the playoff schedule arrives, Harvey will easily be the game 1 or game 2 starter depending on how he finishes the season.

Record of the players past compensation: 
Harvey made MLB’s minimum salary in 2013 at $498,000 and this year at around $510,000. This will be his first eligible year of Arbitration 1. His value to the team over the last couple years has been sky-high but he’s been grossly underpaid.

Comparative salaries:
Tyson Ross was arbitration 1 last year for the San Diego Padres. In his 2014 campaign he pitched to a 2.81 ERA / 1.211 WHIP with 13 wins in 191 innings pitched. He also struck out 9 hitters per inning and was named an All-Star that same season. But Ross pitches in a heavily favored pitcher’s ballpark. His stats at home included a 1.88 ERA with an 8-5 record but his away stats included a 3.79 ERA with a 5-9 record. Clearly, Ross does not pitch better on the road and his starts could have been affected by where he pitched. Compared to Harvey’s career numbers, he pitches more consistently than Ross at home (12-7, 2.15 ERA) and away (12-10, 3.14 ERA). From our previous numbers we know that Harvey has been a better pitcher overall this season in ERA, WHIP, wins and many other pitching statistics than Ross had in his 2014 season. Following Ross’ 2014 year, he was able to negotiate a 1yr/$5.25m deal in January. Ross is not as consistent and skilled as Matt Harvey. Since Harvey surpasses Ross in success we can see he is due much more in salary as well.

Chris Tillman is the next player we can compare to. Although a little less successful, Tillman was able to get a 1yr/$4.3m deal. The season prior to his arbitration, Tillman had a 13-6 record with a 3.34 ERA and struck out only 6.5 K/9 in 207 innings. Tillman is on the lower end of the comparison as he agreed to almost a million dollars less than Tyson Ross.

Summary:
These players give us the best guideline and recent examples in terms of numbers/dollars that can help us estimate what Harvey should be owed for the 2016 season. Harvey is definitely much better than Ross and Tillman. He brings more to the table than just numbers as he is a figurehead in New York, one of the largest markets in baseball. The first-place Mets could not be where they are if it was not for Harvey. His health was a concern earlier this year but he hasn’t had any setbacks this entire season except for skipping a start here or there. We can expect Harvey to easily surpass Tyson Ross and his $5.25m deal.

Due to the pizzazz of the Dark Knight, the revenues generated from his starts/jersey sales and the recent success of the team, Harvey should be able to negotiate himself around a 1yr/$6.3m deal. If we talk about fairness in terms of his contract, I think this is “fair” to both parties. We have to take into account everything that Harvey brings to the table and I think he’s more valuable than Ross and most previous pitchers who went to arbitration 1 and did not sign a multi-year deal. The one factor that could haunt Harvey’s dollar amount is his elbow due to TJ surgery. If that happens to wear out during the last couple of weeks in September and postseason, we can easily make a case that he should be owed less. But as for now he’s been Harvey-esque and back to where he was before the surgery. Next year his innings limit should be lifted or increased dramatically so there won’t be too much of a cause for concern compared to if he spent time on the DL this season. Obviously, he isn’t a sure bet that he will remain healthy but arbitration does not greatly take into consideration future success/problems, only previous. That is why we project him to get approximately $6.3m.

Overall, both sides will negotiate and the Mets will offer less than what I project. I could definitely see the Mets’ offering $5.5 to $6m. But Scott Boras will clearly try to get more for Harvey — I think around $7m. Both arguments will be justified. In the end, I think an arbitrator would agree that 1yr/$6.3m is common ground, a good midpoint and fit for an agreement by both parties. Stay tuned for more…

Projection: 1yr/$6.3m

…because he’s the hero Queens deserves…

Yoenis Cespedes will be one of the most watched upcoming free agents this winter. He has become a coveted player on the market that has earned a huge payday. Cespedes defected from Cuba and signed a 4yr/36m deal (’12-’15) with the Oakland A’s in 2011. He immediately burst onto the scene as an offensive force hitting 20+ home runs, driving in at least 80 runs and slugging .450+ in each of his three seasons. After his success in Oakland, he became a journeyman over the last two seasons being traded to Boston, Detroit and then to the New York Mets this past July.

As a Met, he’s hitting .302 with 17 home runs and 42 RBI in 42 games after a week of hot hitting. Cespedes has totaled 2.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with the Mets and his 6.9 WAR for the 2015 season ranks in the top 10 in the major leagues between both pitchers and hitters. Cespedes is a free agent this off-season but is a special case, as he can’t receive a qualifying offer for a draft pick. When Oakland signed Cespedes as a free agent out of Cuba, they took a significant gamble that he would be major-league ready, inserting him into their lineup right away. Cespedes’ contract requires that he be released after the season without the qualifying offer. The Mets would’ve retained exclusive negotiating rights for the first five days following the conclusion of the 2015 World Series. After that, they couldn’t negotiate with Cespedes until May 15, 2016. But due to the recent success and big gamble of a new payday from New York, Cespedes waived that part of his contract and will now be able to sign with New York at any time in the FA period.

Cespedes’ value with the Mets is astronomical. After acquiring him on July 31st the Mets have scored the most runs (311) in the majors since that time. Before the acquisition the Mets were 28th in the league! They had what was considered a minor-league offense. Although they did acquire Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe, none have made more of an impact than Cespedes. What Cespedes brings to a team is power and pure run support. He became a catalyst for a struggling team and propelled them into first place. Almost all the hitters in their lineup have boosted numbers since that time as well. Pitchers can’t afford to pitch around batters in front of Cespedes. More guys are getting more pitches to hit resulting in more men on base for Cespedes to drive home. He also plays average defense and has a cannon for an arm.

INTERESTED BUYERS:
I can see Cespedes re-signing with the Mets if they have a successful postseason. The fans along with the media would grill the front office/ownership if they did not get him back. That was the case this past trade deadline when GM Sandy Alderson was scrutinized for not making any moves until the final days leading up to July 31st. Roc Nation has the rights to negotiate his contract and as we saw from Cano’s FA market in 2013, they may try to get the most lucrative deal by waiting it out and reaching out to all interested teams. If the Mets want him back they are going to have to give him a big payday.

Some other clubs I can see having interest in Cespedes could be Baltimore, Houston, Miami, and San Diego (if they lose Justin Upton). I think the ones that just makes the most sense are Houston and Baltimore — they need to have more consistency, especially in their OF positions. Houston has Rasmus, Gomez and Springer. But Rasmus is a FA this offseason and Gomez has struggled. I think Cespedes provides that jolt to an offense that’s hard to find. He produces runs, which any offense needs. They could have Altuve, Correa and Springer/Gomez hit in front of Cespedes. That would be an incredible lineup. Throw in their great young staff and a decent back end of a lineup. That’s a scary team. Plus, they have the payroll to go out and get him. Right now its only about $72,000,000, but we’re not sure if ownership wants to go out and spend on one guy. They may try to find value elsewhere for cheaper which is something that General Manager Jeff Luhnow likes to do.

As for the Baltimore Orioles, they have Adam Jones in CF and could sign Cespedes to play LF. He has better defensive numbers in left and if the Orioles cannot sign 1B Chris Davis back I think they will strongly consider Cespedes. Baltimore has a ton of money coming off the books having only $41 million committed to next year so it seems as if they will have a lot of changes coming their way.

San Diego could be a good fit only if Justin Upton signs elsewhere, otherwise he’d be useless on a team that has three solid outfielders and no DH. We know AJ Preller could wave his magic wand at any moment and make something happen. Lastly, Miami could be a dark horse. They cut back on their spending in the last couple years but could look to make another “Marlin splash” with Yoenis Cespedes. Miami plays in a big Hispanic market and considering they are located not too far from Cuba, that could be influential in their decision-making.  The excitement from the fans and a power-filled lineup would be tremendous. Just imagine facing a lineup with Dee Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes and Giancarlo Stanton…someone call Jack McKeon to manage this squad.

In the end, I think Cespedes does sign back with the Mets, especially if they have a deep postseason run. The Orioles are the second favorite. I think the fans/media will get on the front office/ownership to sign him back. The Wilpons might be cheap but after seeing this postseason run they are going to ask themselves, how could they not? Cespedes seems to like being the top dog on a team; with the Mets he’s exactly that. As Reggie Jackson would say, “the straw that stirs the drink.” Without him, they are very vulnerable, as shown before his acquisition.

In terms of his deal, I think he will get around $26 million average annual value (AAV). The big part is how many years he will be able to get. After seeing Roc Nation get Cano to sign for 10 years, I don’t think we will see another double-digit figure like that. It seems that most teams are trying to shy away from that long-term deal and rather give a 6/7/8yr contract with more AAV. So I believe Cespedes will most likely go for about 7 years but higher AAV. Although I don’t think we will be surprised if a front office came up to 8-9-10 years…it’s not every day a .290, 30+HR, 100+RBIs, 7 WAR guy comes on the market.

Similar players we can compare to: Shin Soo Choo – 7yr/130m (18m/AAV) and Jacoby Ellsbury – 7yr/153m (21m/AAV). Cespedes has better numbers than both these players, especially in the power department. Choo was a guy known more for getting on base and Ellsbury had his average/legs/defense behind him. There’s no doubt in our minds Cespedes will get more than these two. If we also take into consideration that for every 1 WAR, a player usually gets $7-8 million/yr. Cespedes this season already has 6.9 WAR. That’s incredible but he’s more likely not to keep that up and fall back to his career average of about 4-5 WAR per season. With that being said, 4-5 WAR equates to a very high salary. The Mets/other teams will probably go a bit overboard and give on the higher end as usual. I think he will get to 7 years/182m for 26m AAV. I don’t think any of these teams will go to 8 years or longer because of the history of longer contracts not working out. If anything this deal will contain more AAV.

As Jerry Seinfeld tweeted: “A Cespedes for the rest of us.”

PROJECTION: 7 years, $182 million with Mets or Orioles.