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Finding a Suitor for Jose Fernandez

One of the league’s most coveted starting pitchers, Jose Fernandez, had his names floating around in rumors all through the winter meetings. Marlins’ President Mike Hill was adamant that Fernandez wasn’t available, but rumors surfaced that his name was being talked about with multiple teams, notably the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Marlins were reported to be looking for five-or-six really good prospects. What kind of team can put together a juggernaut package as is being requested? Well…

First we need to understand what Fernandez’s real value is. Dave Cameron wrote a great article earlier, which concluded that the ace was worth somewhere in the area of $100 million. Now we know why the Marlins’ asking price is through the roof.

Now, for a team to desire such a player, they must be, a) a win-now team, which b) has a solid farm system, and c) needs rotation help. Clearly, the Dodgers fit the bill. The Astros and Red Sox could be fits, with the Yankees being a looser contender. Let’s speculate what a package from each of these teams would look like:

Dodgers

Top Five Prospects:

  1. Corey Seager, SS
  2. Julio Urias, LHP
  3. Grant Holmes, RHP
  4. Alex Verdugo, OF
  5. Jose De Leon, RHP

 

The Dodgers receive:

RHP Jose Fernandez

RHP A.J. Ramos

 

The Marlins receive:

LHP Julio Urias

OF Alex Verdugo

RHP Jose De Leon

 

Why the Marlins would consider this: Julio Urias is the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, and being lefty makes him all the more valuable. Six years of Urias when the Fish have an actual chance at contending, plus top prospects Verdugo and De Leon, might very well be worth Fernandez’s post-TJ seasons.

Why the Dodgers would consider this: Jose Fernandez is under team control for three more years. The Dodgers, searching for their first title since 1988 when Kirk Gibson hit the walk-off homer in Game One, are thirsty for another one. Fernandez would continue the legacy that Greinke left for $200 million – the best 1-2 punch in baseball. AJ Ramos complements Kenley Jansen, solidifying a bullpen that has been shaky in the recent years.

 

Astros

Top Five Prospects:

  1. Alex Bregman, SS
  2. Mark Appel, RHP (note: now outdated, but doesn’t change the general idea)
  3. Daz Cameron, OF
  4. Kyle Tucker, OF
  5. A.J. Reed, 1B

 

The Astros receive:

RHP Jose Fernandez

RHP A.J. Ramos

 

The Marlins receive:

SS Alex Bregman

RHP Mark Appel

2B/OF Tony Kemp

 

Why the Marlins would consider this: Alex Bregman was drafted in 2015, yet he is already a top-25 prospect in baseball. Bregman has outstanding bat speed, and unparalleled mastery of the strike zone at such a young age. Mark Appel, first overall draft pick in 2013, has a fastball that hits the upper-90s and two above-average secondary pitches to round out his arsenal. Tony Kemp is another valuable piece to help the Marlins in the future

Why the Astros would consider this: With Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa blocking out second base and shortstop (respectively) for years to come, Bregman and Kemp have no space to crack the majors under. Bergman is a major talent that would fit well in any organization, but Carlos Correa seems to be a lock for the future. Pitching prospects can be extremely volatile, so giving up Mark Appel to get a bonafide ace to bolster the rotation seems to be a steal. A.J. Ramos fills the void left by Tony Sipp, who departs via free agency.

 

Red Sox

Top Five Prospects:

  1. Yoan Moncada, 2B
  2. Rafael Devers, 3B
  3. Brian Johnson, LHP
  4. Andrew Benintendi, OF
  5. Michael Kopech, RHP

 

The Red Sox receive:

RHP Jose Fernandez

RHP A.J. Ramos

 

The Marlins receive:

LHP Brian Johnson

OF Andrew Benintendi

SS Deven Marrero

RHP Ty Buttrey

 

Why the Marlins would consider this: With Marcell Ozuna’s departure seeming imminent, Andrew Benintendi is a prospect who can fortify their outfield as soon as September 2016. Brian Johnson is the top-prospect pitcher to replace Fernandez in future years. 6-foot-6 Buttrey generates a ton of swings and misses with his mid-90s heater and nasty knuckle-curve. Marrero is a likely future Gold-Glover, with his range and arm both being near-impeccable.

Why the Red Sox would consider this: Just as with the Astros, Benintendi and Marerro are both being blocked by stars already at the major-league level, i.e. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. And just like the other fifteen teams trying to emulate the Royals’ three-headed monster in the bullpen, A.J. Ramos latches on to Carson Smith and Craig Kimbrel to shorten the game for the Sox.

All in all, I’m not sure any of these trades would be enough to quench the immense thirst of the Marlins. I’m not sure they’ll ever get enough to have their prized jewel withdrawn from them; especially when he’s a guy just coming off Tommy John. It’ll be interesting to see how these next few weeks play out, but as of now, I think the ace in orange…stays in orange. At least for the time being.