This is the final part of my pitch-ranking data. Let’s start with the top 25 overall pitches, starters and relievers combined.

Top Pitches:

We have two pitchers that show up twice — Corey Kluber and Sonny Gray. Kluber has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball in 2017, so that is unsurprising. However, Gray as his only two-pitch counterpart is unexpected. Gray is by no means a poor pitcher, but not the same level as Kluber. Jaime Garcia and Tyler Chatwood are the only guys on this list who jump out as poor pitchers, in 2017 at least. Luis Castillo and Jacob Barnes are probably the only guys on this list who are completely unfamiliar for most. Castillo’s future looks bright, where Barnes looks less significant.

I’m sure some have been wondering: What are the worst pitches?

Applying some context, these are certainly not the worst pitches in the game. Just the worst thrown consistently. Every pitch had to reach a minimum number of times thrown to reach this list. These are not the absolute worst pitches in the game, but make no mistake, they are still truly awful. The bottom ten of over 700 pitches. Anyway, here are the ten worst that I measured:

Two names jump out immediately in that list. Dellin Betances and Johnny Cueto. However, considering the widely-known struggles of those two, it’s not nearly as shocking as it might have been last year. Justin Grimm has been downright atrocious, so it’s fitting to see him there. The same goes for Jason Grilli. And Jordan Zimmermann. Kevin Gausman was awful, but has turned it around. Mike Leake has done the exact opposite of that. This is the first time I have seen Warwick Saupold and Paul Blackburn on a list of any kind, good or bad. Blackburn has actually been solid in a small sample for the A’s in his rookie year. Montgomery has continued to provide quality long-relief innings and spot starts for the Cubs.

This was just my first trial run playing around with pitch values. I will continue to work towards a better formula and continue to post in the future. I will post the Excel file with all the pitches and data I used for calculations. Feel free to add, but please don’t change or delete any of the original information.

Pitch Data Excel File

To follow the starting pitchers, we have the relief pitcher pitch rankings.

1. Top Ten Four-Seam Fastball (Min 300):

The Stars: Craig Kimbrel, Sean Doolittle, Pedro Baez

Young and Coming: Chad Green, Drew Steckenrider, Josh Hader

Surprises: Anthony Swarzak, Josh Fields, Tommy Kahnle

No surprise that Kimbrel, probably the most dominant reliever of the past few years, is at the top. Jeff Sullivan discussed Green’s immense success overall and of his fastball recently in his second year for the Yankees. Steckenrider is an unknown rookie for the Marlins, but he has been exceptional for them. Hader is a top prospect for the Brewers and future starter, but his stint in the bullpen has gone perfectly. Swarzak is having a career year, so much so that the Brewers traded for him in an attempt to contend. Kahnle has broken out with the White Sox and Yankees.

2. Top Five Two-Seam Fastball (Min 250):

The Stars: Kelvin Herrera, Ryan Madson

Young and Coming: Edwin Diaz

Surprises: Craig Stammen, Joe Kelly

Herrera has been mostly terrible this year, but his track record says he is still a star. And he clearly hasn’t lost anything from his two-seam fastball. Diaz dominated as a rookie, but has slowed down a lot this season. He’s still 23 — no reason to worry. Stammen didn’t even pitch in the MLB in 2016, but he is performing solidly for the Padres. Kelly is having a career year in Boston behind his high-heat fastball.

3. Top Five Cutter Fastball (Min 200):

The Stars: Kenley Jansen, Alex Colome

Young and Coming: None

Surprises: Dominic Leone, Jacob Barnes, Tommy Hunter

The most infamous cutter in the game makes the top five, coming from Dodgers closer Jansen. Colome has continued a breakout from 2016 as the Rays closer. Leone had a great rookie season for the Mariners in 2014, but was knocked around in 2015/2016. He has come back nicely in 2017.

4. Top Five Sinker Fastball (Min 200):

The Stars: Pat Neshek

Young and Coming: None

Surprises: Richard Bleier

Neshek, a two-time All-Star, has been spectacular for the Phillies. Bleier, a 30-year-old second-year player, has been unexpectedly good in the majors the past two years.

5. Top Two Splitter Fastball (Min 200):

Only nine relievers heavily used the splitter, so this is a small leaderboard. Parker has broken out for the Angels in 2017. Shreve is the third Yankee to appear.

6. Top Five Curveball (Min 200):

The Stars: David Robertson, Cody Allen

Young and Coming: Keone Kela

Surprises: None

Our fourth Yankee to appear on a leaderboard is Robertson. And none of those four have been Dellin Betances or Aroldis Chapman. Scary. Kela has been one of the only relievers holding the Rangers bullpen afloat.

7. Top Ten Slider (Min 250):

The Stars: Roberto Osuna, Pedro Strop, Ken Giles

Young and Coming: Raisel Iglesias, Edwin Diaz

Surprises: James Hoyt

Osuna has been nothing short of excellent for the Blue Jays, manning the closer job for all three of his professional seasons. Still just 22 years old, the best is yet to come. Strop is widely under-appreciated, but he has been a consistent force out of the Cubs bullpen for years. Mariners young stud Edwin Diaz makes his second leaderboard appearance. Hoyt has been terrible for the Astros, so his inclusion is unexpected.

8. Top Three Changeup (Min 200):

(the changeup is not much of a reliever pitch, so this leaderboard is small)

The Stars: Chris Devenski

Young and Coming: Felipe Rivero

Surprises: None

Kahnle appears again. With much-improved stuff, he has been striking out everybody en route to a big breakout season. Devenksi is only in his second year, but also in his second year of excellence. The unheralded minor-league starter turned long reliever turned dynamic/versatile setup man has been a star in Houston’s bullpen. His changeup is nicknamed the “Circle of Death,” so no surprise seeing him here. Rivero has been dominant for the Pirates in his third year in the bigs.

Top Fifteen Overall:

Best Pitch: Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox, four-Seam

Biggest Surprise: Jacob Barnes, Milwaukee Brewers, Cutter

The leaderboard is run by four-seam fastballs and sliders at the top, which is unsurprising considering those are the favorite pitches of relievers. I’ve said this before, but three Yankees in the top 15. And neither of their alleged best two! That’s absurd. Seeing Kimbrel at the top is the exact opposite. Jacob Barnes, however, is crazy too. The unheralded second-year man hasn’t shown much yet, with a 4.00 FIP in 2017. But that cutter is doing something to hitters.

I will add one more, combining relievers and starters, and with some interesting tidbits.

As I stated in my earlier article, I would be posting data from my pitch-effectiveness measurement I introduced. Let’s start with the starting pitchers.

1. Top Ten Four-Seam Fastballs (Min 500):

The Stars: Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, James Paxton

Young and Coming: Jose Berrios

Surprises: Rick Porcello, Chase Anderson, Jeff Samardzija

This group includes some bona-fide talent and some surprises. Porcello’s 1.90 Z-Score on the Sw+Whf% jumps out, considering his lack of stuff and general pitch to contact. Anderson is quietly putting together a solid season, with a 2.88 ERA in 122 innings of work. Samardzija’s incredible strikeout and walk peripherals have been well documented this year.

2. Top Ten Two-Seam Fastballs (Min 300):

The Stars: Sonny Gray, David Price, Chris Sale, Julio Teheran

Young and Coming: Jameson Taillon, Luis Castillo

Surprises: Jaime Garcia, Matt Garza

We see Sale again, which, considering what he has done this year, is not surprising. Garza has been generally terrible this year, so his inclusion in this list is unexpected. Castillo, a rookie for the Cincinnati Reds, has pieced together some quality starts out of the spotlight.

3. Top Five Cut Fastballs (Min 200):

(Only five because the small use of cutters)

The Stars: James Paxton, Corey Kluber

Young and Coming: Zach Godley

Surprises: Tyler Chatwood

We see Paxton again, who has established himself as a star this season. Godley has been great for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and Tyler Chatwood has been poor for the Colorado Rockies.

4. Top Five Sinker Fastball (Min 200):

(Only five because the small use of sinkers)

The Stars: Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana

Young and Coming: Trevor Williams

Surprises: None

An emerging starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates, an emerging ace for the Milwaukee Brewers, and…three Chicago Cubs. I gave the Cubs pitchers the benefit of the doubt and put them under “The Stars” category, but they may have pitched their way out of there this season.

5. Top Two Splitter Fastball (Min 200):

The splitter leaderboard included only nine starters, so this one is short. Kevin Gausman has rebounded from a horrendous start to be solid, and Ricky Nolasco has continued to provide what he always has: mediocrity.

6. Top Ten Curveball (Min 300):

The Stars: Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Carlos Carrasco

Young and Coming: Zach Godley

Surprises: James Shields, Alex Meyer, John Lester, Charlie Morton

We see Kluber again, and Godley again, and Paxton for a third time. No surprise considering the seasons they have put up. Shields’ days as a front-of-the-rotation starter are far behind him. Meyer has quietly put together some solid starts for the Los Angeles Angels as a complete unknown. Lester is a surprise here because this is his second leaderboard appearance, and he has not pitched well. Morton is mostly known for his injury problems, but he has developed some of the best “stuff” in the game in his first year in Houston.

7. Top Ten Slider (Min 300):

The Stars: Carlos Carrasco, Max Scherzer, Sonny Gray, Clayton Kershaw, Marcus Stroman, Zach Greinke

Young and Coming: Dylan Bundy, Mike Clevinger

Surprises: Patrick Corbin

Finally! The man we have been waiting to see, Kershaw, makes his first appearance. As does Scherzer. The star power of this group is by far the strongest. Bundy has been “Young and Coming” for decades it seems now, and no one knows if the flashes will become consistency ever. Still just 24 years old, though, so I will keep my hopes up. Clevinger has been a nice surprise for the Cleveland Indians, and Corbin has bounced back from a miserable 2016 to be solid for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

8. Top Ten Changeup (Min 300):

The Stars: Stephen Strasburg, Kyle Hendricks, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, Cole Hamels

Young and Coming: Luis Castillo, Eduardo Rodriguez

Surprises: Edinson Volquez

Scherzer again, which makes me feel better about the validity of this work. Carrasco for the third time in a row. His breaking and offspeed stuff are killer. Very few people outside of Cincinnati know Castillo, but this is the rookie’s second leaderboard appearance. Rodriguez has continued to flash this year, but injuries and inconsistency continue for the young Red Sock. Volquez is still embracing his mediocrity.

Starters Top Fifteen Overall:

Best Pitch: Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox, 4-Seam Fastball

Best Repertoire: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

Biggest Surprise: Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds, Changeup

This list is almost all household names. In first and second, we have the AL Cy Young frontrunners. Jeff Sullivan recently wrote an article about Kluber’s curveball, and how it may be the best pitch in baseball. It isn’t number one here, but second place is not too shabby. His cutter also appears here, so his dominance is not hard to explain. Sonny Gray’s stuff is well known, and he shows up twice on this table, but his numbers are not spectacular this year. Lastly, watch out for Castillo. He’s a no-name rook, but he has been solid for the Reds, and the ranking of his changeup may be the evidence to support his success.

Next up is relievers.

We are yet to establish a truly effective method of measuring the effectiveness of a pitch and comparing pitches. One of the main problems with attempting to evaluate a pitch on it’s own is nearly impossible. If a pitcher has an exceptional fastball, that is going to elevate his slider. Another pitcher may have a slider with more “stuff,” but it will not rank as well without the other effective pitches in his repertoire.

I will attempt to create a method here that will allow us to measure effectiveness in an improved way, although there is no guarantee here that I will succeed.

Let’s start with the main things a pitch has to be effective. In theory, a perfect pitch would be thrown in the zone and generate whiffs, while allowing weak contact when it is put in play. Obviously, it is unreasonable to expect a pitcher to generate lots of whiffs inside the zone against major-league hitters, so throwing outside the zone is a necessity in baseball to get swings and misses.

So, I used two evaluators for pitch effectiveness. I formed my own measurement, Swing%+Whiff% (Sw+Whf%). Since many pitches are meant not to be thrown in the strike zone, I did not include Zone% or Strike%. The Sw+Whf% should evaluate the ability of a pitch to get swings, and swings and misses. That evaluator covers the “stuff” component of the pitch. For the second evaluator, I used xwOBA (expected OBA), which gives a “true” wOBA based off exit velocity and launch angles. This covers the contact management component of the pitch. These are not all weighted for the part they play in run scoring, so it is not perfect, but they should give us a solid idea of what a pitch could do.

Obviously, different pitches will have different average values for these evaluators. A breaking ball is going to create more whiffs than a fastball. Fastballs are easier to hit, and thus will have a higher xwOBA. These evaluators themselves can not be used to compare different types of pitches. This is where the Z-Scores come in to play.

A Z-Score measure how much something deviates from average. First, we take the standard deviation and mean of a data sample. Then, for the Sw+Whf%, we subtract the mean from the individual’s Sw+Whf%, and divide that number by the standard deviation. We have our Z-Score! If the Sw+Whf% is higher than average, the Z-Score will be above zero, which means it is better than average. If the Sw+Whf% is lower than average, the Z-Score will be below zero, indicating the pitch is worse than average. It is the same thing for xwOBA, except for xwOBA lower is better. So instead of subtracting the mean from the individual’s xwOBA, we subtract the individual’s xwOBA from the mean. Add the two Z-Scores together, and we have our total Z.

Example:

The average Sw+Whf% on four-seam fastballs, for pitchers with a minimum of 500 four-seamers thrown, is 63.78. The average xwOBA allowed on these is .347. Chris Sale owns an 85.89 Sw+Whf% and .238 xwOBA on his four-seam fastball. The Sw+Whf% STD is 7.14 and the xwOBA STD is .038.

Sw+Whf% Z-Score: (85.89-63.78)/(7.14) = 3.08

xwOBA Z-Score: (.347-.238)/(.038) = 2.86

Total Z-Score: 3.08 + 2.86 = 5.94

Sale’s 5.94 is an incredible score, with second-place Jacob deGrom sitting at 4.81, over 1 below Sale. After that, no one else even reaches 3.5. The Z-Score has no unit, so it can be slightly confusing. It is a measurement of how many standard deviations above or below average something is.

A few things to be careful of here. These numbers are not predictive. They are simply meant to measure the effectiveness of a pitch and allow us to compare different types of pitch in a more simplified way than run values. It is just a fun statistic to look at, not something used to project the future. We also have the same problem as run values. It is impossible to look at a pitch by itself, as a good fastball will elevate a good slider. I am attempting to determine something that will allow us to better differentiate a player’s specific pitches from each other, but for now, we have this. I will be posting all the specific pitch data and tables for each pitch for starters and relievers and doing some analysis in the next few days. This is just the introduction.

When the Houston Astros sent two of their top pitching prospects, Vince Velasquez and Mark Appel, to the Philadelphia Phillies for Ken Giles in December 2015, they were expecting an excellent flame-throwing reliever, and possibly their closer of the future. In his first two years in the league, Giles amassed a 1.56 ERA in 115.2 innings. His work as a setup man/closer went largely unappreciated due to the losing nature of the Phillies, but Giles pitched like one of the best relievers in the game.

But his first year in Houston did not go as planned. Giles couldn’t maintain a hold of the closer job, as he blew five of his 20 save opportunities and finished with a 4.11 ERA. His 2.86 FIP proved he might have suffered from bad luck, and he still displayed incredible stuff (nearly 14 K/9), but he did not execute as expected or needed for the Astros.

2017 has been a different story for Giles. His 29 saves rank ninth in the league, and he has blown only three opportunities this season. His 2.30 ERA is legitimate, supported by a 2.14 FIP. Giles has been one of the best closers in baseball, but his name is hardly mentioned among the top guys in the league. And he’s been especially locked in of late.

Last night (September 5th at the time of writing this), Giles struck out the side in a 10-pitch inning to earn the save against the Seattle Mariners. The only ball he threw came when the batter barely checked his swing. Here he is hitting triple digits on the outside corner to get Ben Gamel looking and close out the game:

It was the second night in a row that he struck out the side for 1-2-3 ninth.

Since June 7th, Giles has a minuscule 0.86 ERA and .147 average against. FIP will rarely support a mark that low, but his 1.57 mark in that category is still exceptional. He’s striking out more batters and walking fewer, accumulating a K-BB% of 31.3%.

Giles has given up one run since July 16th, in 20.1 innings of work. His FIP is under 1, at an absurd 0.82, and he’s sporting a ridiculous 45.1% K-BB% in that time. He has also show the ability to be stretched out of late, as he has gone 1.2 or more innings in three of his last ten appearances. What has made him so effective this season?

It all starts with the slider for Giles, which ranks third in run value among relievers at 12.9 runs. Run values aren’t the best metric, but they definitely give you an idea of the effectiveness of a pitch. Just look at it:

The pitch starts at the “TEXAS” on Rougned Odor’s jersey and finishes below his knees. There is about nothing a hitter can do with that.

Look at a heat map, by pitcher viewpoint, of Giles slider’s location. He is burying the majority of his sliders along the bottom of the zone. Now look at a heat map of the average against the pitch, by zone. Where the majority of the pitches are going, hitters aren’t doing much with. At all. Per Brooks Baseball, hitters have only put the ball in fair territory on 25% of their swings at the pitch. They rarely put the ball in play, and they don’t do much with it when they do.

But this is actually not new for Giles. He was third last year in slider run value among relievers, at 12.6 runs. Where Giles has greatly improved his effectiveness is with his fastball. It was worth a run value of -13.3 in 2016, but it’s currently sitting at 3.4 this year. It has not been incredible, but paired with the slider, it doesn’t need to be.

Here is a comparison of his fastball in 2016 vs. 2017:

The batted-ball numbers are down across the board. He’s throwing it in the strike zone more often as well, which would cause you to expect he is pitching more to contact with the pitch. However, the Contact% has steeply declined, and the swinging-strike rate is way up. Obviously, with a 137 wRC+ allowed this year, the pitch is still not great. But when you have a slider running a -14 wRC+, it does not need to be.

Here is a heat map comparison of the two pitches: 2016 vs. 2017

The spray is much tighter in 2017, and he is throwing across the middle of the zone a whole lot less. Improved command of a pitch will obviously lead to more success. But another element might be involved in the improvement of his fastball. Giles has added nearly four inches of horizontal movement this year, from -1.7 to -5.6.

A 2016 fastball:

And the fastball from last night again:

The run to the right on the pitch is clear. Movement of any kind will always help to keep a hitter off balance, and while we can’t be sure, it looks like this may be what has given life to Giles’ fastball. His confidence with the pitch has grown, as his usage of it exploded from roughly 50% to 68.4% in August. And it appears this improved fastball may be keying his emergence as one the best closers in the game.

Giles lost some respect and notoriety with his poor 2016. But with the year he has put together so far, especially the way he’s pitching of late, he has earned all of that, and then some, back. He’s locking down the back of Houston’s bullpen. The Cleveland Indians displayed the importance of relievers in the playoffs last season, so don’t be too surprised if Giles is at the forefront of a charge to the World Series for the best team in the American League.

Baseball is a very fickle sport; sometimes everything will be going your way, and sometimes it may be the complete opposite. There will always be guys who go through long stretches where they are seemingly doing everything right but the results just are not coming. With that being said, let’s take a look at who should improve after the All-Star break.

Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera is in the midst of one of the worst seasons of his career. His .264 average would be a career worst, the 20 home runs he’s on pace for would be the third worst. His 110 wRC+ is his worst since his rookie season.

All signs point to that coming to an end quickly, though. Cabrera’s .067 xwOBA – wOBA is the highest in the league and his BABIP has plummeted to .307. He is obviously a terrible baserunner with his age so one might expect those numbers, but the .037 xwOBA – wOBA he posted in 2015-2016 and his .346 career BABIP suggest it has been more than his age. Comerica Park is one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the league, but still shouldn’t account for the bad luck.

Cabrera’s batted-ball profile also appears to be in great shape. He is hitting more line drives than ever before, while also utilizing all parts of the field at a career high. To go along with that, his Hard% and Soft% are career bests. His Hard% is second in the league and within 0.1% of the godly Aaron Judge. Cabrera’s contact rates are slightly down but right in line with the last couple of seasons, and his O-Swing% and Z-Swing% are also similar to his past.

The basic numbers suggest he’s having perhaps the worst season of his career, but Cabrera’s peripherals suggest one of his best. Expect bigger things from the two-time MVP in the second half.

Matt Carpenter 

Carpenter’s numbers have not disappointed quite to the extent of Cabrera’s. He is hitting only .237 and his 119 wRC+ are down, but he is also posting an absurd 17.5% BB% and just a 18.6% strikeout rate. His 14 home runs show a little bit of improved power. However, the numbers suggest he could be doing quite a bit better.

His xwOBA is .044 higher than his wOBA, which is tied for eighth in the league. Similar to Cabrera, he is not an exceptional baserunner and is not playing in a hitter’s park, but his 2015-2016 xwOBA was only .014 higher than his wOBA. He’s also experienced the same BABIP drop as Cabrera, as the .256 mark he’s running in 2017 is way off his career .322 BABIP.

Carpenter’s batted-ball profile doesn’t excite as much as Cabrera, as his line-drive rate is down and his Soft% is up. But his hard-contact rate is at a career-high 45.1%.

His season has not been a total disappointment to date, but expect it to improve in the second half.

Manny Machado 

Lastly, we have the player disappointing the most on this list. Without even looking at the numbers, Machado could easily be included on this list. Machado is still not even at the peak of his prime yet, as he turned 25 just over a week ago. The three time All-Star posted 6+ WAR in three of the last four seasons. The only other players to do the same were Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson.

So, even without digging into things, improvement in the second half is expected. Luckily, the peripherals also support an improvement from Machado. His xwOBA of .355 is far more impressive than his .319 wOBA, and Machado is actually a solid baserunner and plays in a generally neutral park at Camden Yards. The -.013 xwOBA – wOBA he had in 2015-2016 makes a lot more sense than the .036 he is running right now. The .239 BABIP in 2017, way off his .302 career mark, further suggests bad luck.

Just like Cabrera and Carpenter, Machado’s batted-ball profile is actually even a little more impressive than past seasons. His hard-hit rate of 40.2% would be a career high by a good amount and his soft-contact rate has seen a 3% decline from last year.

There may be more cause for concern with Machado than the others, though. He has basically forgotten how to hit line drives, as his LD% has cratered to 13.9% and his ground-ball rates are up. Along with that, his pull rates are creeping up. Luckily, Machado crushes his ground balls. His 89.4 average GB MPH ranks fifth in the league, which helps to offset his minuscule liner rates. But even with that, his Contact% of 76.3% would be the lowest since his rookie year, and his plate discipline is trending in the wrong direction.

It’s possible Machado is selling a bit of his contact skills for improved batted balls, but the GB/LD/FB tendencies don’t support that. Overall, considering Machado’s youth, talent, and most of the peripheral numbers, a large improvement should be expected. However, it does appear that something may be a little off with the Orioles’ franchise third baseman.

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher of his generation. He is a six-time All-Star and a three-time Cy Young winner. The Los Angeles Dodgers ace won’t turn 30 until next season, but he has already accumulated over 2,000 strikeouts and 135 wins. So, when we see Kershaw falter a little bit for a short period of time, it is justified that the struggles are written off as nothing. That’s what was done earlier this year, but, 14 starts into 2017, he has a problem that isn’t going away. And it’s time to really investigate the issue.

Kershaw has given up at least one home run in his last four starts, and is just three long balls away from tying his career-high 16 home runs allowed in 2012. Those 16 came in 33 starts. Let’s compare his HR/9 and HR/FB for each season:

Both would easily be career highs, and aside from his rookie year in 2008, his current HR/9 of 1.21 would nearly double the next worst.

It’s not like this issue has destroyed him or trickled down into the rest of his game — he is still running a 2.23 ERA. His 23.8% K-BB% isn’t quite what it’s been the last few seasons, but it is still better than his career average. Kershaw has actually still been great, but he is held to a different standard than any other pitcher in the league. He just hasn’t been Kershaw great. So what’s behind the home runs?

Well, we are dealing with Kershaw here, so the first thing to investigate is whether he has had a little bad luck. Maybe a few balls that normally shouldn’t clear the fence did…

But that’s not the case, and that explanation is actually a lot further off than one might expect. Kershaw’s allowed home runs have been hammered. The average exit velocity on them is 105.5 mph, which ranks in the 12th percentile for pitchers who have allowed at least five home runs. Not a single one has been hit below 100 mph, and only two of the home runs had a home-run probability lower than 50%. One of those two is a home run 37% of the time, but it’s usually not an out, either. Similar balls in play to that home run have an .800 average. The other one under 50% is a home run 49% of the time. So, clearly he’s not suffering from bad luck, and it’s actually a little troubling how little luck has gone into the homers.

Strangely, while the home runs have been crushed, Kershaw isn’t giving up more hard contact overall. His hard-contact rate is nearly identical to last season’s, and he is actually sporting a career high in soft-contact rate. Hitters are turning on specific pitches, not hitting him harder overall.

The specific pitch they’re turning on is, surprisingly, his fastball. From 2011 (when Kershaw won his first Cy Young) to 2016, Kershaw’s fastball had a whopping 148.6 run value. That easily ranked first, and the next closest in that time frame was his teammate, Kenley Jansen, at 97.8. His fastball simply dominated guys. And while pitch values are not the most perfect metric to use, there is something to be said that his fastball ranks only 20th in run value in 2017. Yes, 20th out of 85 is far from poor, but remember who we are talking about here.

In that 2011-2016 time frame, Kershaw gave up 44 home runs on his fastball. 14 of those came on pitches that landed arm side of the plate and in the middle third. That was seven more than any other zone. That trend hasn’t changed this season, as half of his eight home runs allowed on fastballs have come in that zone. Obviously some of that is due to the frequency that he throws his fastballs there, but hitters still like to club his fastball there more than any other areas.

So, that zone, along with the middle of the plate (like with any pitcher), are the danger zones for Kershaw’s fastball. Well, look at Kershaw’s fastball location from 2011-2016. Kershaw likes to elevate his fastball on the outer third, so making the occasional mistake and bringing it too low is understandable. But, now, look at Kershaw’s fastball location this season. Yikes. Kershaw is throwing his fastball most often right in the middle of his weak zones.

The pitch is good enough that, even with the poor location this season, it’s still a great pitch. The average exit velocity on his fastball is 85.0 mph in 2017, compared to 84.8 mph in 2015-2016. Guys aren’t consistently hitting it any harder than they usually do. The issue is Kershaw is making more mistakes. In 2011-2016, hitters had a barrel (balls in play with at least .500 average, 1.500 slugging) rate of .11% on his fastball. In 2017, that number has skyrocketed to .94%. Kershaw is leaving it in the sweet spot of the zone too often.

The fly-ball rate on the pitch is also way up to 35.2% this season, which is much greater than recent years. We all know about the launch-angle obsession and how guys are trying to lift the ball out of the park more. If you hit the ball higher, it’s more likely to sail over the wall. Well, that is exactly what’s happening to Kershaw. The overall effectiveness of trying to raise one’s launch angle is yet to be determined, but it clearly leads to more home runs. It’s no surprise that if Kershaw is allowing more balls in the air, he’s allowing more home runs.

Kershaw seems to have lost some command on his fastball, and hitters are starting to tee off on it a little more than usual. If anyone could recover from this, it would be Kershaw. Obviously, with the way he is still pitching, the home runs are not a death sentence. But with the way these balls have been crushed, the issue is worrisome and it hasn’t been shrinking as the sample size increases.

Dallas Keuchel has reemerged as an ace for the Houston Astros this season, as he has posted a 1.71 ERA thus far and is yet to lose a game. He has an absurd 67.4% ground ball rate while still maintaining an 8.21 K/9 innings. Keuchel’s performance has been impressive, but his brilliant pitch repertoire may be even more impressive. Starters in the MLB essentially need at least three pitches. However, a lot rely on two pitches, while sprinkling in a third out of necessity. Possessing confidence in three pitches can be a commodity. But not only does Keuchel have three weapons, he has four pitches that he can effectively use.

It all starts with the two-seam fastball for the bearded ace, which he is throwing almost exactly 50% of the time this year. Hitters are slashing .179/.252/.291 against the pitch, and it’s drawing a GB% of 80.8%. Watch the pitch in live action:

The pitch sinks at the last second, dropping from Joey Rickard’s knees as it crosses the plate to nearly hitting the dirt. Rickard may not be the poster child for hitting, but there isn’t much you can do with that pitch. Even if it doesn’t have the ridiculous late sink, it puts hitters in a bind. It’s perfectly located down and away, so hitters have to reach to get the ball. Maybe you can send it to the opposite field, but Keuchel’s two-seam generally comes in below 90 mph, so a hitter is gonna have to put a hard swing on that to get a solid line drive. And with they way it keeps guys off balance, hard swings usually aren’t finding that pitch.

But that is just one pitch, you say. Keuchel can’t replicate that perfection often. Well…

Keuchel rarely misses his spot with the two-seam, making it a dangerous ground ball/strikeout weapon for him. The two-seam is Keuchel’s most commonly seen fastball, but it is not his only one. He actually throws a cutter to accompany his fastball. The cutter is his least thrown pitch of the repertoire, but he still throws it 10.8% of the time. What’s rare here is the two-seam and cutter combo, as Keuchel is one of only four starters that throws the two-seam at least 25% of the time and the cutter at least 10% of the time.

His cutter is quite effective too, as hitters have a .174 average against it. Similar to the two-seam, Keuchel has great command of the pitch. He knows where he wants to throw it and, usually, he puts it right there. The cutter isn’t quite the ground-ball pitch that the two-seam is, but rather Keuchel uses it jam righties inside. The cutter has the highest infield fly-ball rate (20.0%) of his four-pitch arsenal.

Next is Keuchel’s slider, which he throws 22.2% of the time. Hitters are slashing just .125/.143/.208. His slider is incredibly effective, but it is also different than most sliders. In terms of vertical and horizontal movement, below is your average slider from a lefty:

Blake Snell’s slider breaks down and in, but now look at Keuchel’s slider:

Keuchel’s slider has a ton of horizontal movement, but has almost no downward break. It averages only half an inch of vertical movement. His command of the pitch isn’t nearly as pretty as the fastballs, but that makes sense considering it’s a breaking ball.

Last not but not least, Keuchel’s changeup, which he throws 12.7% of the time. The pitch has limited hitters to just a .233 slugging in 2017. And, like with any of his other pitches, Keuchel throws it where he wants to. Keuchel also kind of has a four-seam fastball, but the pitch is used very rarely and isn’t really part of repertoire.

But back to why I’m writing this in the first place. If you look back at the heat maps for all of Keuchel’s pitches, it’s pretty clear that, aside for elevating his changeup on occasion, Keuchel keeps everything low. All of his pitches consistently land across one plane at the bottom of the strike zone, covering every part of the plate from left to right. When you consider his slider is what it is, Keuchel essentially doesn’t have a true breaking ball. Why this is so odd is because every one of his pitches, in terms of vertical movement, moves in a straight line and lands in the same place every time.

However, every one of his pitches is moving side to side, so Keuchel never gives you anything straight up. They are always going to be cutting or fading. But Keuchel throws all of his pitches relatively slow, so they are not easy to discern based off velocity. If you combine that with the fact that all of his pitches are landing across the same plane and not breaking, it makes it incredibly hard to recognize his pitches.

Just to make it even harder on hitters, here is Keuchel’s pitch mix by count. It’s always going to be a heavy dose of two-seam fastballs, but any of his secondary pitches can be thrown at any time.

So, Keuchel can throw you four different pitches, that all look similar, at any time he wants and exactly where he wants to throw them. That sounds like a recipe for success. Keuchel’s pitch mix may be different, but it is about as effective as anybody’s. Despite extremely limited velocity and stuff, Keuchel remains one of the top pitchers in the game because his command and ability to mix pitches is truly beautiful.

The Chicago Cubs have been immensely disappointing in 2017, not quite living up to the dynastic expectations that were forced upon them. Kyle Schwarber is struggling (if you haven’t heard that, I don’t know where you have been). Addison Russell is struggling. The pitching rotation is struggling. Star third baseman Kris Bryant, however, has managed to avoid being dragged down with the rest of the team.

In his MVP season last year, Bryant put up a .402 wOBA and a 149 wRC+, ranking 8th and 9th in the league, respectively. Through 50 games in 2017, he has posted a .402 wOBA and a 147 wRC+. The results are almost identical, but the two ways they have been achieved are not quite as similar.

40.3% of Bryant’s contact was considered hard in 2016, good for 13th in the league. But visit the Statcast exit velocity leaderboard for 2017, and you won’t be seeing Bryant anywhere near the top. Bryant’s Hard% is down all the way to 29.6% in 2017 and his average exit velocity of 86.21 mph this year is actually worse than the MLB Average 87.83 mph. The wOBAs for each season are the same, but the xwOBAs tell a much different story. Bryant was a bit lucky in 2016, as his xwOBA of .383 indicated a performance a little worse than his numbers. But it did not change the fact that Bryant still put up an MVP season, and it doesn’t look as worse if you consider Wrigley Field had a park factor of 90.2 in 2016. This year, Bryant’s .349 xwOBA pales in comparison to the .402 wOBA, especially with Wrigley’s 110.2 park factor this year. Bryant, unlike other Cubs, has managed to dodge the criticism this year with the help of a whole lot of luck.

The 2016 and 2017 launch angles are quite similar, so a change in swing path likely isn’t causing the weaker contact. And with the 2016 Bryant put up, one would hardly expect that he was quick to adjust his swing. The change is strange, but there may be an explanation.

Like with most power guys, Bryant was a heavy pull hitter in 2016, hitting 46.7% of his balls to left field. That number has taken a massive drop to 38.7% this season. Balls in play are likely to find more gaps if they are sprayed all over the field, but that still cannot come close to accounting for the difference in Bryant’s xwOBA and wOBA. Hand in hand with that, his contact rates have gone up. He is connecting on 65.3% of his swings on pitches outside the zone, up from 59.8% last year. His swinging strike rate is down from 13.0% to an impressive 9.7%. Perhaps Bryant, like Giancarlo Stanton also recently did, decided to give up some power for a more balanced plate approach.

The problem, though, is that Bryant hasn’t altered his strikeout rates. His K% is only down to 20.5% this year from 22.0% last year. Bryant is chasing less, though, lowering his O-Swing% from 30.8% to 28.6%. He is chasing less now, and even when he is chasing, he is making more contact. He’s also making a whole lot more contact in general. Those should add up to fewer strikeouts, but, oddly, they aren’t. Again, there may be an explanation. Bryant is still whiffing a whole lot with two strikes, as his swinging strike with two strikes with rate is still at 24.5%, compared to last year’s 26.8% mark. You can’t strike out without two strikes, so even if he is whiffing less with one or zero strikes, he’s not making more contact when there is an actual punch-out opportunity.

If you are going to refine your plate approach and lose some of the aggressive hacks, you need to strike out less, as Stanton did. Guys like (younger) Stanton have to offset lots of misses by doing something with the ball on the times they don’t miss.

But there is one thing that has really confused me. Why is a former MVP giving up the approach that got him the award? Everyone can and should make adjustments to get better, even Mike Trout, but it is odd to see Bryant stray this far from what he did last year.

There is some good news, though. Bryant is posting a 15.5% walk rate, ranking 11th in the league. His Zone% has actually slightly increased from this year to last, so perhaps Bryant’s improved eye is forcing pitchers to attack him in the zone. Or maybe they are catching on to his weak contact.

Overall, this has been a weird season for Bryant and the Cubs. The Cubs are loudly scuffling, while Bryant is quietly putting together a mysterious season. He won the MVP in 2016, but then seemingly decided to make big adjustments to his plate approach. His new approach isn’t working, but his production isn’t falling. I honestly don’t know what to make of this right now, and maybe no conclusions need to be drawn at this time. But one thing that can be taken away is that we should start monitoring Bryant a little more closely.

The narrative of Houston Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers has been well-documented. In his first couple seasons in the major leagues, he flashed electric stuff, but did not have the health or consistency to be considered a top pitcher. One of those consistency issues was his road pitching performances.

Up until May 5th, McCullers was sporting a 5.32 ERA on the road against 2.11 ERA at home. But across his last three road starts, he has accumulated 19 innings and given up no runs, allowing just nine hits and walking only four. He may able to attribute the success to one thing: his changeup.

McCullers has had a changeup his whole career, but it was used only 7.4% of the time in the 2015-16 seasons. McCullers, along with Rich Hill, has sort of redefined curveball use, as he thrown more curveballs than fastballs the last two years. McCullers essentially threw two pitches his first two seasons in the majors, and the changeup was needed simply because any starter needs to throw more than two pitches. The changeup showed promise, but McCullers just did not have the command of it to make it a prevalent pitch.

Most of you have probably seen this, but if you haven’t, well, just watch. Yes, a 94mph changeup (kind of). McCullers tantalized us with that in 2015, but the changeup sort of disappeared after that.

It is back now, and in a big way. McCullers has thrown the pitch 22.2% of the time over his last five starts, the last three of which were those dominant road performances. His first start with the changeup increase didn’t go so well, as he gave up five earned runs against the Cleveland Indians. But McCullers has stuck with it, and he is dominating now.

Hitters are batting just .192 against the changeup this year, a massive improvement from the way it was smacked around to a .458 batting average last year. To give you an idea of what the pitch is doing to batters — McCullers throws the changeup in the zone only 27.2% of the time, but is drawing a swing 41.2% of the time, which is more often than on his fastball. At 89.3 MPH on average, McCullers has thrown the hardest changeup in the league among qualified starters. His K%-BB% on the pitch in 2017 is 22.2%. Simply, the changeup is dominating players. McCullers overall K% has dropped from 27.3% in his career to 24.2% in his last five games, but this has not been a negative.

McCullers’ fastball has not been a strength in his career, as it’s average against in 2015-16 was .334. His success lived off the curveball in those years because of his lack of an effective fastball or changeup. Surprisingly, the more changeups thrown has not caused a decline in fastballs thrown, but rather in curveballs. McCullers has thrown the curve nearly half the time in his career, but has thrown it only 38.0% of the time in his last five starts. He is throwing roughly the same amount of fastballs, but with much improved results.

His fastball GB% is up to 61.2% this year, much improved from his 37.2% mark in 2015. The average against is way down from .334 in 2015-2016 to .200 this year. Most importantly, though, McCullers has halved his BB% on the fastball from his first two seasons. Hitters were destroying the fastball in the zone and not chasing on it out of the zone. McCullers is getting fewer strikeouts because he is throwing fewer curveballs, but the overall pitching results are better. He is drawing softer contacts and walking fewer guys at the cost of a couple strikeouts.

McCullers decided to change up his extreme curveballing ways with some more changeups, and it is working beautifully. The changeup is dominating hitters, creating strikeouts and soft contact without walking guys. But perhaps most importantly, an effective third pitch from McCullers is finally keeping people on their toes, and they can no longer sit on the fastball. But don’t forget about his curveball, which is still one of the best in baseball.

The consistency at home and away from Minute Maid Park is finally there, and McCullers is pitching lights out right now. Health is still a concern, but McCullers is yet to have an issue this season. If his health keeps up, Dave Cameron may be saying “I told you so!” come November.