Bill Shakespeare had it right over 400 years ago. A baseball game in its essence is a sequence of plays, always starting at the same point and then tracing out a unique road that leads to the final outcome. And all the best games have a long and winding road. Having previously established that Power WPS is the ULTIMATE measure of how exciting a baseball game is, we’re ready for the real fun to begin. The fun of course being the compiling of various lists which can be the basis for pointless arguments. Since we rate the games based on the plays, we should establish a framework by first talking about the plays. When we remember a game, what we really remember is a few plays. So what is a typical play, what is the distribution of plays, what is a ‘big’ play?

Through 2017 there have been 305 playoff series, comprised of 1535 games and 119,712 plays, or about 78 plays per game. The average play moves the probability by 3.4%; The median play moves the probability by 2 percent. The table below shows the distribution of all those plays.

Only about 6.27 percent of all plays move the needle by as much as 10%, so a typical game will have about 5 of those.

Only about 1.14 percent of all plays move the needle by as much as 20%. A typical game will have about 1 of those. That’s the play they’ll show on the evening news.

Only about 0.42 percent of all plays move the needle by as much as 30%. About 1 in 3 games would feature a play like that.

Only about 0.13 percent of all plays move the needle by as much as 40%. About 1 in 10 games would feature a play like that.

Only about 0.03 percent of all plays move the needle by as much as 50%. A team might have about 4 of them in a season.

 

Change in winning%	# Plays	% of plays	Cum %		Change in winning%	# Plays	% of plays	Cum %
0%	13673	11.42%	11.42%		26%	70	0.06%	99.44%
1%	24970	20.86%	32.28%		27%	53	0.04%	99.49%
2%	26781	22.37%	54.65%		28%	57	0.05%	99.53%
3%	17106	14.29%	68.94%		29%	50	0.04%	99.58%
4%	11175	9.33%	78.28%		30%	44	0.04%	99.61%
5%	6649	5.55%	83.83%		31%	40	0.03%	99.65%
6%	4562	3.81%	87.64%		32%	39	0.03%	99.68%
7%	3208	2.68%	90.32%		33%	28	0.02%	99.70%
8%	2357	1.97%	92.29%		34%	45	0.04%	99.74%
9%	1725	1.44%	93.73%		35%	40	0.03%	99.77%
10%	1414	1.18%	94.91%		36%	33	0.03%	99.80%
11%	1145	0.96%	95.87%		37%	25	0.02%	99.82%
12%	922	0.77%	96.64%		38%	32	0.03%	99.85%
13%	664	0.55%	97.19%		39%	27	0.02%	99.87%
14%	499	0.42%	97.61%		40%	14	0.01%	99.88%
15%	379	0.32%	97.93%		41%	15	0.01%	99.89%
16%	328	0.27%	98.20%		42%	19	0.02%	99.91%
17%	309	0.26%	98.46%		43%	16	0.01%	99.92%
18%	279	0.23%	98.69%		44%	9	0.01%	99.93%
19%	208	0.17%	98.86%		45%	6	0.01%	99.94%
20%	140	0.12%	98.98%		46%	13	0.01%	99.95%
21%	128	0.11%	99.09%		47%	9	0.01%	99.95%
22%	98	0.08%	99.17%		48%	6	0.01%	99.96%
23%	91	0.08%	99.25%		49%	7	0.01%	99.97%
24%	91	0.08%	99.32%		50%	5	0.00%	99.97%
25%	73	0.06%	99.38%		>50%	36	0.03%	100.00%

Caveat: BBRef has updated the percentages over time, my results reflect the values I captured over the years which may differ slightly from the current values.

 

Choosing one great game, we can see what at all of those levels look like. Game 6 of the 2011 World Series (Cards 10 Rangers 9, in 11 innings) has them all.

In the top of the 2nd, Ian Kinsler hit a 2-out double with a man on second tying the game at 2 (11%)

In the top of the 7th, Adrian Beltre hit a leadoff homer, breaking a 4-4 tie (21%)

In the bottom of the 11th, David Freese led off with a walk-off homer (37%)

In the top of the 10th, Josh Hamilton hit a 1-out 2-run homer to break a 7-7 tie (43%)

In the bottom of the 9th, David Freese hit a 2-out 2-run triple to tie the game at 7 (54%)

 

Obviously, the biggest plays will tend to come at the end of the game when there are fewer (or no) opportunities to come back.

But what are the highest rated early plays in a game?

1st play 12%: A Pete Rose homer off Catfish Hunter in G5 of the 1972 WS

2nd play 16%: Most recently a Stephen Piscotty 2-run homer off Jason Hammel in game 4 of the 2015 NLDS

3rd play 21%: A 1-out 2-run homer by Frank Robinson off Don Drysdale in game 1 of the 1966 WS

4th play 23%: A 1-out 3-run homer by Willie Stargell off Doug Rau in Game 3 of the 1974 NLCS

5th play 24%: A 2-out 3-run homer by Garrett Anderson off Randy Johnson in Game 3 of the 2005 ALDS

6th play 26%: A 2-out 3-run homer by Lucas Duda off Jason Hammel (AGAIN) in Game 4 of the 2015 NLCS

7th play 23%: A 2-out 3-run double by Moises Alou off Greg Maddux in Game 1 of the 1997 NLCS

8th play 25%: A 2-out 3-run homer by Bob Watson off Jerry Reuss in Game 1 of the 1981 WS (bottom of 1st)

9th play 26%: A 2-out 3-run homer by Ron Cey off Dave Righetti in Game 3 of the 1981 WS (AGAIN) (bottom of 1st)

10th play 26%: A 2-out 3-run double by Alex Gordon off CJ Wilson in Game 3 of the 2014 ALDS (bottom of 1st)

11th play 33%: A 2-out Grand Slam by Ryan Roberts off Randy Wolf in Game 4 of the 2011 NLDS (bottom of 1st)

12th play 26% yada

13th play 28% yada

14th play 22% yada

15th play 24%

16th play 33%: A 1-out 3-run homer by Gene Tenace off Jim McGlothlin in Game 5 of the 1972 WS (bottom of 2nd)

17th play 25%

18th play 39%: A 2-out Grand Slam by Jose Canseco off Tim Belcher in Game 1 of the 1988 WS (Top of 2nd, turned into a footnote 7 innings later)

19th play 30%

20th play 30%

 

The earliest we get a 40% play is

41st play 42%: A 2-out grand slam by James Loney off Ryan Dempster in Game 1 of the 2008 NLDS (top 5th). Gives team 2 run lead

The Earliest we get a 50% play is

56th play 55%: A 2-out 2-run Pete Rose homer off John Candeleria in Game 3 of the 1975 NLCS (top 8th). Gives team 1 run lead

 

Speaking of those over 50% plays, how many of those biggest 41 plays that changed the odds by at least 50% can you think of? No credit for naming the Pete Rose play…

Series	Road Team	score	home team	score	IP	Top Play
1988 WS G1	Oakland Athletics	4	Los Angeles Dodgers	5	9	87.0%	Gibson’s 2-out 2-run walk-off Homer Off Eck
2009 NLCS G4	Los Angeles Dodgers	4	Philadelphia Phillies	5	9	83.0%	Jimmy Rollins 2-out 2-run walk-off Double Off Jonathan Broxton
1947 WS G4	New York Yankees	2	Brooklyn Dodgers	3	9	82.0%	Cookie Lavagetto 2-out 2-run walk-off double off Bill Bevens, also ending Bevens no-hitter bid
1985 NLCS G6	St. Louis Cardinals	7	Los Angeles Dodgers	5	9	74.0%	Jack Clark 2-out 3-run homer off Tom Neidenfuer in the top of the ninth gives Cards the lead
1992 NLCS G7	Pittsburgh Pirates	2	Atlanta Braves	3	9	74.0%	Francisco Cabrera 2-out 2-run walk-off single off Stan Belinda
1986 ALCS G5	Boston Red Sox	7	California Angels	6	11	73.0%	Dave Henderson 2-out 2-run homer off Donnie Moore in the top of the 9th gives Red Sox temporary 1-run lead
2003 NLDS1 G3	San Francisco Giants	3	Florida Marlins	4	11	73.0%	Ivan Rodriguez 2-out 2-run walk-off single off Tim Worrell
2005 NLCS G5	St. Louis Cardinals	5	Houston Astros	4	9	73.0%	Albert Pujols 2-out 3-run homer off Brad Lidge in the top of the 9th gives Cards the lead
1986 NLCS G3	Houston Astros	5	New York Mets	6	9	73.0%	Lenny Dysksta  1-out 2-run walk-off homer off Dave Smith
1988 NLCS G1	Los Angeles Dodgers	2	New York Mets	3	9	72.0%	Gary Carter 2-out 2-run double off Jay Howell in the top of the 9th gives Mets the lead
1972 ALCS G1	Detroit Tigers	2	Oakland Athletics	3	11	71.0%	Gonzalo Marquez 2-out 2-run walk-off single (plus error) off Chuck Seelback
1985 WS G2	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Kansas City Royals	2	9	69.0%	Terry Pendleton 2-out 3-run double off Charlie Leibrandt in the top of the 9th gives Cards the lead
1941 WS G4	New York Yankees	7	Brooklyn Dodgers	4	9	69.0%	Charlie Keller 2-out 2-run double off Hugh Casey in the top of the 9th gives Yankees the lead
1992 WS G2	Toronto Blue Jays	5	Atlanta Braves	4	9	67.0%	Ed Sprague 1-out 2-run homer off Jeff Reardon in the top of the 9th gives Blue Jays the lead
1993 WS G6	Philadelphia Phillies	6	Toronto Blue Jays	8	9	66.0%	Stupid Joe Carter
1960 WS G7	New York Yankees	9	Pittsburgh Pirates	10	9	63.0%	Hal Smith 2-out 3-run Homer off Bob Coates in the bottom of the 8th.Defines the minimum distance from immortality to obscurity.
2005 WS G2	Houston Astros	6	Chicago White Sox	7	9	58.0%	Paul Konerko 2-out Grand Slam off Chad Qualls in the bottom of the 7th gives Sox a 2-run lead
2009 ALDS2 G3	Anaheim Angels	7	Boston Red Sox	6	9	57.0%	Vladimir Guerrero 2-out 2-run single off Papelbon I the top of the 9th gives Anaheim a 1-run lead
1978 ALCS G3	Kansas City Royals	5	New York Yankees	6	9	57.0%	Thurman Munson 1-out 2-run Homer off Doug Bird in the bottom of the 8th gives Yankees a 1-run lead
1997 ALCS G2	Cleveland Indians	5	Baltimore Orioles	4	9	56.0%	Marquis Grissom 2-out 3-run home run off Armando Benitez in the top of the 8th gives Cleveland a 1-run lead
1972 WS G4	Cincinnati Reds	2	Oakland Athletics	3	9	56.0%	Bobby Tolan 2-out 2-run double off Vida Blue gives Cin a temporary lead….stay tuned
2010 NLDS2 G3	San Francisco Giants	3	Atlanta Braves	2	9	56.0%	Eric Hinske 1-out 2-run homer off Sergio Romo in the bottom of the 8th gives the Braves a temporary lead
1975 NLCS G3	Cincinnati Reds	5	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	10	55.0%	Pete Rose 2-out 2-run Homer off John Candelaria in the top of the 8th. Reds go on to win in extra innings
1933 WS G4	New York Giants	2	Washington Senators	1	11	55.0%	Carl Hubbell get Cliff Bolton to hit into a bases loaded walk-off double play in the bottom of the 11th. One for the defense!
2011 WS G6	Texas Rangers	9	St. Louis Cardinals	10	11	54.0%	David Freese 2-out 2-run triple off Neftali Feliz in the bottom of the 9th ties the game…leading to madness
1987 ALCS G3	Minnesota Twins	6	Detroit Tigers	7	9	54.0%	Pat Sheridan 1-out 2-run homer off Jeff Reardon gives the Tigers a 1-run lead
1923 WS G6	New York Yankees	6	New York Giants	4	9	54.0%	Bob Meusel 2-out 3-run single (+error) off Rosy Ryan in the top of the 8th gives Yanks a 2-run lead.
1998 NLCS G5	Atlanta Braves	7	San Diego Padres	6	9	53.0%	Michael Tucker 1-out 3-run homer off Kevin Brown in the top of the 8th gives Braves a 1-run lead
1998 WS G3	New York Yankees	5	San Diego Padres	4	9	53.0%	Scott Brosius 1-out 3-run homer off Trevor Hoffman in the top of the 8th gives NY a 2-run lead
1972 WS G4	Cincinnati Reds	2	Oakland Athletics	3	9	52.0%	Don Mincher 1-out 1-run single off Clay Carrol in the bottom of the 9th ties game and puts winning run on third. Only playoff game with two 50+% plays
2014 ALDS2 G2	Detroit Tigers	6	Baltimore Orioles	7	9	52.0%	Delmon Young 1-out 3-run double of Joakim Soria in the bottom of the 8th gives the Orioles a 1-run lead
2016 NLDS1 G3	Chicago Cubs	5	San Francisco Giants	6	13	51.0%	Conor Gillaspie 1-out 2-run triple off Arnoldis Chapman in the bottom of the 8th gives Giants a 1-run lead
2003 ALDS1 G4	Oakland Athletics	4	Boston Red Sox	5	9	51.0%	David Ortiz 2-out 2-run double off Keith Foulke in the bottom of the 8th gives the Sox a 1-run lead
1938 WS G2	New York Yankees	6	Chicago Cubs	3	9	51.0%	Frankie Crosetti 2-out 2-run homer off Dizzy Dean in the top of the 8th gives the Yanks a 1-run lead
1999 NLCS G4	Atlanta Braves	2	New York Mets	3	9	51.0%	John Olerud 2-out 2-run single off John Rocker in the bottom of the 8th gives the Mets a 1-run lead
1912 WS G8	New York Giants	2	Boston Red Sox	3	10	51.0%	Tris Speaker 1-our 1-run single off Christy Mathewson ties game, winning run advances to 3rd.  The first ever +50% in the post-season
1993 WS G4	Toronto Blue Jays	15	Philadelphia Phillies	14	9	50.0%	Devon White 2-out 2-run Triple off Mitch Williams in the top of the 8th gives the Jays a 1-run lead
1980 ALCS G3	Kansas City Royals	4	New York Yankees	2	9	50.0%	George Brett 2-out 3-run homer off Goose Gossage in the top of the 7th gives the Royals a 2-run lead
2014 NLDS1 G1	St. Louis Cardinals	10	Los Angeles Dodgers	9	9	50.0%	Matt Carpenter 2-out 3-run double off Clayton Kershaw in the top of the 7th gives the Cards  1-run lead
2004 ALDS2 G2	Minnesota Twins	6	New York Yankees	7	12	50.0%	Arod 1-out 1-run double off Joe Nathan in the bottom of the 12th puts winning run on 3rd
2001 WS G7	New York Yankees	2	Arizona Diamondbacks	3	9	50.0%	Tony Womack 1-out 1-run double off Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the 9th puts winning run on 3rd

 

Part of the fun of a list like that is the memories of players I have not thought of in many moons (apologies to the Cleveland Indians for that cultural appropriation) and other players that I’d never heard of in the first place. Of course while these plays turned an individual game around, some had a greater impact on the outcome of a series, those plays being the ones that happened in the closing games of a series. We can make that list too…

Here are the 24 plays that changed the odds of victory for a playoff series by at least 35%. NINE of them occurred in just four games (they are marked with funny symbols).

 

Series	Road Team	score	home team	score	IP	Top Play	Series Impact	Game weight	Description
1992 NLCS G7	Pittsburgh Pirates	2	Atlanta Braves	3	9	73.0%	73.0%	100.0%	Francisco Cabrera 2-out 2-run walk-off single off Stan Belinda
1960 WS G7	New York Yankees	9	Pittsburgh Pirates	10	9	63.0%	63.0%	100.0%	Hal Smith 2-out 3-run Homer off Bob Coates in the bottom of the 8th. ****
1912 WS G8	New York Giants	2	Boston Red Sox	3	10	51.0%	51.0%	100.0%	Tris Speaker 1-our 1-run single off Christy Mathewson ties game, winning run advances to 3rd.
2001 WS G7	New York Yankees	2	Arizona Diamondbacks	3	9	50.0%	50.0%	100.0%	Tony Womack 1-out 1-run double off Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the 9th puts winning run on 3rd
1972 NLCS G5	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	Cincinnati Reds	4	9	45.0%	45.0%	100.0%	Johnny Bench leadoff homer in the bottom of the 9th off Dave Guisti ties the game…the inning isn’t over yet ^^^^
2006 NLCS G7	St. Louis Cardinals	3	New York Mets	1	9	42.0%	42.0%	100.0%	Yadier Molina 1-out 2 run homer off Aaron Heilmanin the top of the 9th breaks the tie
1981 NLCS G5	Los Angeles Dodgers	2	Montreal Expos	1	9	43.0%	42.0%	100.0%	Rick Monday 2-out homer off Steve Rogers in the top of the 9th breaks the tie
1982 ALCS G5	California Angels	3	Milwaukee Brewers	4	9	41.0%	41.0%	100.0%	Cecil Cooper 2-out 2-run single off Luis Sanchez in the bottom of the 7th breaks the tie
2012 NLDS1 G5	St. Louis Cardinals	9	Washington Nationals	7	9	41.0%	41.0%	100.0%	Pete Kozma 2-out 2-run single off Drew Storen in the top of the ninth breaks the tie $$$$
1980 NLCS G5	Philadelphia Phillies	8	Houston Astros	7	10	40.0%	40.0%	100.0%	Manny Trillo 2-out 2-run triple off Ken Forsch in the top of the 8th breaks the tie ####
2016 WS G7	Chicago Cubs	8	Cleveland Indians	7	10	39.0%	39.0%	100.0%	Rajai Davis 2-out 2-run homer off Aroldis Chapman in the bottom of the 8th ties the game
2001 NLDS2 G5	St. Louis Cardinals	1	Arizona Diamondbacks	2	9	39.0%	39.0%	100.0%	Tont Womack (again) 2-out 1-run walk-off single off Steve Kline
1972 NLCS G5	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	Cincinnati Reds	4	9	38.0%	38.0%	100.0%	Bob Moose’s walk-off wild pitch in the bottom of the ninth allows pinch runner George Foster to score ^^^^
1980 NLCS G5	Philadelphia Phillies	8	Houston Astros	7	10	38.0%	38.0%	100.0%	Garry Maddox 2-out 1-run double off Frank LaCorte in the top of the 10th breaks the tie…again ####
1985 NLCS G6	St. Louis Cardinals	7	Los Angeles Dodgers	5	9	74.0%	37.0%	50.0%	Jack Clark 2-out 3-run homer off Neidenfur in the top of the ninth gives Cards the lead
1976 ALCS G5	Kansas City Royals	6	New York Yankees	7	9	38.0%	38.0%	100.0%	Chris Chambliss 0-out 1-run walk-off homer off Mark Littell
1968 WS G7	Detroit Tigers	4	St. Louis Cardinals	1	9	37.0%	37.0%	100.0%	Jim Northrup 2-out 2-run triple off Bob Gibson in the top of the 7th breaks a scoreless tie
1960 WS G7	New York Yankees	9	Pittsburgh Pirates	10	9	37.0%	37.0%	100.0%	Bill Mazeroski’s leadoff walk-off homer off Ralph Terry in the bottom of the ninth breaks the tie ****
2003 NLDS1 G3	San Francisco Giants	3	Florida Marlins	4	11	73.0%	36.5%	50.0%	Ivan Rodriguez 2-out 2-run walk-off single off Tim Worrell
1977 ALCS G5	New York Yankees	5	Kansas City Royals	3	9	36.0%	36.0%	100.0%	Mickey Rivers 1-out 1-run single off Larry Gura ties the game in the top of the 9th. Winning run to 3rd
2003 ALCS G7	Boston Red Sox	5	New York Yankees	6	11	36.0%	36.0%	100.0%	Aaron Boone 0-out walk-off homer off Tim Wakefield in the 11th
2012 NLDS1 G5	St. Louis Cardinals	9	Washington Nationals	7	9	36.0%	36.0%	100.0%	Daniel Descalso 2-out 2-run single off Drew Storen in the top of the 9th ties the game $$$$
1924 WS G7	New York Giants	3	Washington Senators	4	12	35.0%	35.0%	100.0%	Buckey Harris 2-out 2-run single off Virgil Barnes in the bottom of the 8th ties the game
1980 NLCS G5	Philadelphia Phillies	8	Houston Astros	7	10	35.0%	35.0%	100.0%	Jose Cruz 2-out 1-run single off Tug McGraw in the bottom of the 8th re-ties the game ####

 

Yep, of the top 24 decisive plays EVER affecting a series outcome, Three happened in Game 5 of the 1980 NLCS.

 

You can also factor in the series level (WS =100%, CS=50% DS=25%). As this focuses down to just a few games, repeats become more common

Series	Road Team	score	home team	score	IP	Top Play	Game weight	Series Level	WS%
1960 WS G7	New York Yankees	9	Pittsburgh Pirates	10	9	63.0%	100.0%	100%	63.00%	Hal Smith 2-out 3-run Homer off Bob Coates in the bottom of the 8th. ****
1912 WS G8	New York Giants	2	Boston Red Sox	3	10	51.0%	100.0%	100%	51.00%	Tris Speaker 1-out 1-run single off Christy Mathewson ties game, winning run advances to 3rd.  ####
2001 WS G7	New York Yankees	2	Arizona Diamondbacks	3	9	50.0%	100.0%	100%	50.00%	Tony Womack 1-out 1-run double off Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the 9th puts winning run on 3rd
2016 WS G7	Chicago Cubs	8	Cleveland Indians	7	10	39.0%	100.0%	100%	39.00%	Rajai Davis 2-out 2-run homer off Aroldis Chapman in the bottom of the 8th ties the game \\\\
1960 WS G7	New York Yankees	9	Pittsburgh Pirates	10	9	37.0%	100.0%	100%	37.00%	Bill Mazeroski’s leadoff walk-off homer off Ralph Terry in the bottom of the ninth breaks the tie ****
1968 WS G7	Detroit Tigers	4	St. Louis Cardinals	1	9	37.0%	100.0%	100%	37.00%	Jim Northrup 2-out 2-run triple off Bob Gibson in the top of the 7th breaks a scoreless tie
1992 NLCS G7	Pittsburgh Pirates	2	Atlanta Braves	3	9	73.0%	100.0%	50%	36.50%	Francisco Cabrera 2-out 2-run walk-off single off Stan Belinda
1924 WS G7	New York Giants	3	Washington Senators	4	12	35.0%	100.0%	100%	35.00%	Buckey Harris 2-out 2-run single off Virgil Barnes in the bottom of the 8th ties the game
1960 WS G7	New York Yankees	9	Pittsburgh Pirates	10	9	34.0%	100.0%	100%	34.00%	Yogi Berra 1-out 3-run homer off Roy Face in the top of the 6th gives the Yanks a temporary 1-run lead ****
1975 WS G7	Cincinnati Reds	4	Boston Red Sox	3	9	34.0%	100.0%	100%	34.00%	Joe Morgan 2-out 1-run single off Jim Burton in the top of the 9th breaks the tie
1997 WS G7	Cleveland Indians	2	Florida Marlins	3	11	34.0%	100.0%	100%	34.00%	Edgar Renteria 2-out 1-run walk-off single off Charles Nagy in the bottom of the 11th ^^^^
1993 WS G6	Philadelphia Phillies	6	Toronto Blue Jays	8	9	66.0%	50.0%	100%	33.00%	More Stupid Joe Carter
1946 WS G7	Boston Red Sox	3	St. Louis Cardinals	4	9	32.0%	100.0%	100%	32.00%	Harry Walker 2-out 1-run double off Bob Klinger in the bottom of the 8th breaks the tie &&&&
2016 WS G7	Chicago Cubs	8	Cleveland Indians	7	10	31.0%	100.0%	100%	31.00%	Ben Zobrist 1-out 1-run double off Bryan Shaw in the top of the 10th gives the Cubs the lead \\\\
1946 WS G7	Boston Red Sox	3	St. Louis Cardinals	4	9	31.0%	100.0%	100%	31.00%	Dom Dimaggio 2-out 2-run double off Harry Brecheen in the top of the 8th ties the game &&&&
1947 WS G4	New York Yankees	2	Brooklyn Dodgers	3	9	82.0%	37.5%	100%	30.75%	Cookie Lavagetto 2-out 2-run walkoff double off Bevens, also ending the no-hitter
1979 WS G7	Pittsburgh Pirates	4	Baltimore Orioles	1	9	30.0%	100.0%	100%	30.00%	Willie Stargell 1-out 2-run homer off Scott MacGregor in the top of the 6th gives the Family a 1 run lead
1925 WS G7	Washington Senators	7	Pittsburgh Pirates	9	9	29.0%	100.0%	100%	29.00%	Carson Bigbee 2-out 1-run double off Walter Johnson in the bottom of the 8th ties the game $$$$
1925 WS G7	Washington Senators	7	Pittsburgh Pirates	9	9	29.0%	100.0%	100%	29.00%	Kiki Cuyler 2-out 2-run double off Walter Johnson in the botton of the 8th gives the Pirates a 2-run lead $$$$
1912 WS G8	New York Giants	2	Boston Red Sox	3	10	29.0%	100.0%	100%	29.00%	Fred Merkle 1-out 1-run single off Smokey Joe Wood in the top of the 10th temporarily breaks a tie ####
1991 WS G7	Atlanta Braves	0	Minnesota Twins	1	10	29.0%	100.0%	100%	29.00%	Jack Morris gets Sid Bream to hit into a 1-out bases loaded double play in the top of the 8th  @@@@
1988 WS G1	Oakland Athletics	4	Los Angeles Dodgers	5	9	87.0%	31.3%	100%	27.19%	Gibson
1982 WS G7	Milwaukee Brewers	3	St. Louis Cardinals	6	9	27.0%	100.0%	100%	27.00%	Keith Hernandez 1-out 2-run single of Bob McClure in the bottom of the 6th ties the game
1923 WS G6	New York Yankees	6	New York Giants	4	9	54.0%	50.0%	100%	27.00%	Bob Meusel 2-out 3-run single (+error) off Rosy Ryan in the top of the 8th gives Yanks a 2-run lead.
1958 WS G7	New York Yankees	6	Milwaukee Braves	2	9	27.0%	100.0%	100%	27.00%	Elston Howard 2-out 1-run single off Lew Burdette in the top of the 8th breaks te tie
1991 WS G7	Atlanta Braves	0	Minnesota Twins	1	10	27.0%	100.0%	100%	27.00%	Mike Stanton gets Kent Hrbek to hit into a 1-out bases loaded double play in the bottom of the 8th @@@@
2011 WS G6	Texas Rangers	9	St. Louis Cardinals	10	11	54.0%	50.0%	100%	27.00%	David Freese 2-out 2-run triple off Neftali Feliz in the bottom of the 9th ties the game
1941 WS G4	New York Yankees	7	Brooklyn Dodgers	4	9	69.0%	37.5%	100%	25.88%	Charlie Keller 2-out 2-run double off Hugh Casey in the top of the 9th gives Yankees the lead
1912 WS G8	New York Giants	2	Boston Red Sox	3	10	25.0%	100.0%	100%	25.00%	Olaf Henriksen 2-out 1-run double off Christy Mathewson in the bottom of the 7th ties the game  ####
1925 WS G7	Washington Senators	7	Pittsburgh Pirates	9	9	25.0%	100.0%	100%	25.00%	Roger Peckinpaugh 1-out 1-run homer off Ray Kremer in the top of the 8th gives the Senators a temporary lead $$$$
1997 WS G7	Cleveland Indians	2	Florida Marlins	3	11	25.0%	100.0%	100%	25.00%	Charles Johnson 1-out 0-run single off Jose Mesa in the bottom of the 9th advances tying run to 3rd ^^^^

A list dominated by the 42 World Series that went a least seven games.

Now don’t get accustomed to seeing these kind of results. One would need to watch nearly a decade of games to see this many impactful plays.

“All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”  — L. Tolstoy

You can say something similar about baseball games. All boring games are alike; but exciting games are interesting in their own ways. Every boring game has one team building up a big early lead, which is never threatened. But there are many ways to have an exciting game: the pitcher’s duel, the slugfest, the late-inning comeback, extra innings, all in various combinations. And in between them are the bulk of games that are simply ordinary.

All of which makes ranking exciting games a tricky process, at least compared ranking to how boring they are. How does one compare Game 7 of the 1991 WS (1-0 in 10 innings) to Game 4 of the 1993 WS (15-14 in 9 innings) on the same scale? They’re great in different ways.

Back in 2005 I created a system to do just that, a rating system based simply on the runs scored in line score. I may have been the Christopher Columbus of that new world. And ranking the games allows you to rate post-season series-es.

The line-score system did work in the sense that it could tell the difference between a great game and a good one, and between a good one and an ordinary one. But while the line score gives you the basic outline of the game, it was blind to the details of what happens DURING each inning. Zero runs scored in the top of the 1st rates exactly the same; whether there were three pop-ups, or if three singles were followed by a triple play.

Eventually I realized that Baseball-Reference.com (ALL HAIL BBREF) has the play-by-play data for all playoff games, which includes a probability of victory after each play (anything that changes the outs, baserunners or score). Plotted, you can easily see if a game was good; It looks like and earthquake. If it was bad, it looks like the EKG of a corpse. Using those probabilities, we can create a much more accurate game rating. I fiddled with many rating schemes over the last 10 years before settling on one that seems both conceptually simple and that yields reasonable results.

Of course, by then I had been beaten to the basic concept by Dave Studeman (WPA) and Shane Tourtellotte (WPS). Twelve years is too long for laurels resting.

WPA = Sum(change in probability between plays)

Modified WPS = Sum(change in probability between plays) + top three plays + Final play

What I have developed is similar to their work, but I think it has some small advantages. Generally, my ratings will be quite close to Shane’s (R-squared > 99.5%). He correctly realized that simply summing the probabilities doesn’t quite work, which is why he modified it. An example…

There are seven post-season games with a WPA of exactly 4.52. Among them are:

1995 NLCS Game 2

Reds beat the Braves 6-2 in ten innings.

95 Plays, 13 plays changed the odds by at least 10%

top Play a Mark Portugal bases-loaded wild pitch +18%

70 plays with the odds in the 30% to 70% range

compared to

1960 WS Game 7

Pirates 10 Yankees 9 in nine innings

77 plays, 15 plays changed the odds by at least 10%

Of those 4 changed the odds by at least 20%

Of those 3 changed the odds by at least 30%

Of those 1 changed the odds by more than 50%

25 plays with the odds in the 30% to 70% range

 

There is simply no way those games are equal. The 1960 game has five different plays better than any play in the 1995 game. The 1995 game makes up the ground by (1) having 18 more plays (2) having fewer plays where nothing happened because the game was usually within one run.

1960 is still better because a +40% play isn’t twice as exciting as two +20% plays. Bill Mazeroski’s game-ending homer rates as +37%. Bobby Richardson’s game-starting line-out rates at +2%. Making a walk-off homer the equal of about 3 ½ innings with zero hits. NOPE. WRONG.

Shane accounted for this with his modified method. By counting the top three plays twice and Mazeroski’s walk-off homer three times, the ratings are now

1960: 6.49

1995: 5.19

And science prevails.

Of course, there is nothing magical about TOP THREE plays or LAST play. You could try using the top five plays and last five plays (believe me, I did).  But I do think that using Top-3 + Last can sometimes lead you astray. I will now present exhibits A and B to demonstrate where it can swing and miss.

Exhibit A: 1988 WS Game 1

Exhibit B: 1985 NLCS Game 6

I expect you to know them. The two biggest home runs in terms of changing the odds in post-season history courtesy of Mr. Clark and Mr. Gibson.

1985: WPA 4.48 in 83 plays and 9 innings

1988: WPA 3.94 in 82 plays and 9 innings

The 1985 game had more action with the same number of plays, which you can easily see in the line scores

StL          0              0              1              0              0              0              3              0              3              (7)

LA           1              1              0              0              2              0              0              1              0              (5)

 

Compared to

 

Oak        0              4              0              0              0              0              0              0              0              (4)

LA           2              0              0              0              0              1              0              0              2              (5)

 

The ‘85 game has a game tie in the 7^th, broken tie in the 8^th and lead change in the 9^th

The ‘88 game has a lead change in the 2^nd and a lead change in the 9^th

Modified WPS says

1985: 4.48 + 1.34 + 0.01 = 5.83 (Tied for 94^th best game)

1988: 3.94 + 1.43 + 0.87 = 6.28 (Tied for 58^th best game)

I don’t think you can argue that the 1988 game is much better than the 1985 game; I don’t think it’s a better game at all. And it’s the last-play bonus that is to blame. Had the 1985 game been played in St. Louis then Clark’s homer would have been a walk-off and the game would have rated 6.56, well ahead of the 1988 game.

If you think about it, a last-play bonus is biased towards games won by the home team. If the home team loses, the last play will rarely amount to anything.

Only 23 times has it been at least 20%. When the home team wins, it is at least 20% 122 times.

Only 11 times has it been at least 30%. When the home team wins, it is at least 20% 96 times.

I also know this because I tried last play, last five plays, and last ten plays in trying to construct a rating system. I also tried top five plays, top ten plays, all plays over 10%, WPA – .03 per play (yielding the bizarre result of games with negative excitement).

Eventually I tried a simple power transformation on EVERY play. First, I tried summing the squares of the probabilities changes, like any good statistician would.

When I did that, the 1985 game Rated 10^th and the 1988 game rated 5^th. Which is the wrong order, and both games are just rated too high. Then I tried other powers…the Goldilocks approach, looking for the one that was just right.

 

Power             Rank               Rank

2.0          1985       10^th         1988       5^th best game

1.9          1985       12^th         1988       8^th Best game

1.8          1985       15^th         1988       20^th Best game

1.7          1985       23^rd        1988       25^th Best game

1.6          1985       32^nd        1988       36^th Best game

1.5          1985       38^th        1988       51^st Best game

1.4          1985       53^rd        1988       76^th Best game

1.3          1985       61^st         1988       104^th Best game

1.2          1985       79^th        1988       133^rd Best game

1.1          1985       100^th      1988       158^th Best game

1.0          1985       116^th      1988      185^th Best game

Everything above 1.7 was eliminated since it rated 1988 better than 1985

 

Here’s some shorthand I’m going to use:

Game 6 of the 1985 NLCS: STL 7, LA 5 in 9 innings — WPA 4.48 (9-4-2-1)

Game 1 of the 1988 WS: LA 5, SF 4 in 9 innings — WPA 3.98 (5-2-2-1)

The 1985 game had 9 plays rated>= 0.1, 4 plays rated>=0.2, 2 plays rated>=0.3 and 1 play rated >=0.5

The 1988 game had 5 plays rated>= 0.1, 2 plays rated>=0.2, 2 plays rated>=0.3 and 1 play rated >=0.5

For a sense of scale, the average game is WPA 2.67 (4.89-0.88-0.33-0.03)

(You can check the examples listed below on BBRef to get more detail on each game)

 

Checking 1.7, both exhibits rated higher than

Game 2 of the 2017 WS: HOU 7, LA 6 in 11 innings — WPA 5.30 (10-5-3-0)

Game 1 of the 2015 WS: KC 5, NYM 4 in 14 innings — WPA 6.36 (16-3-1-0)

1.7 weights the big plays too much

 

Checking 1.6, both test games rated higher than

Game 6 of the 1986 WS: NYM 6, BOS 5 in 10 innings — WPA 5.14 (16-3-3-0)

Game 6 of the 1986 NLCS: NYM 7, HOU 6 in 16 innings — WPA 5.80 (11-3-2-0)

1.6 weights the big plays too much

 

Checking 1.5,

the 1985 game rated higher than

Game 6 of the 1986 WS: NYM 6, BOS 5 in 10 innings — WPA 5.14 (16-3-3-0)

The 1988 game rated higher than

Game 4 of the 2001 WS: NYY 4, ARI 3 in 10 innings — WPA 4.58 (10-3-2-0)

1.5 weights the big plays too much, but it’s getting hard to find clear mistakes

 

Checking 1.4,

the 1985 game rated higher than

Game 3 of the 1976 NLCS: CIN 7, PHI 6 in 9 innings — WPA 4.72 (14-3-2-0)

Lead changes in the 7^th, 8^th and 9^th innings.

The 1988 game rated higher than

Game 4 of the 1986 ALCS: CAL 4, BOS 3 in 11 innings — WPA 4.64 (7-4-2-0)

1.4 weights the big plays too much, but I’m now splitting hairs

 

Checking 1.3, I like this one. Let me check 1.2

 

Checking 1.2,

the 1985 game rated lower than

Game 2 of the 1996 ALDS: NYY 5, TEX 4 in 12 innings — WPA 5.02 (8-2-0-0)

Game 2 of the 1990 WS: CIN 5, OAK 4 in 10 innings — WPA 4.50 (10-2-0-0)

1.2 weights the big plays too little. Famous games are losing to games without any highlights.

 

So, I think 1.3 is the sweet spot.

My rating score is = Sum((change in probability between plays)^1.3) *2

The *2 at the end is purely cosmetic. It allows the very best game to score close to ten.

 

With base WPA, Gibson’s homer (.87) is worth about 25x a normal play (.035). With WPS it’s worth bout 75x a normal play. Raising all the plays to the 1.3 power means that Gibson’s homer is now worth about 65x a typical play.

With base WPA, Clark’s homer (.74) is worth about 21x a normal play (.035). With WPS it’s worth bout 42x a normal play. Raising all the plays to the 1.3 power means that Clark’s homer is now worth about 53x a typical play.

With a little algebra,

WPA:  Gibson = 1.18 * Clark

WPS: Gibson = 1.76 * Clark

Power 1.3: Gibson = 1.23 * Clark

A nice property of the transformation is that when the change in odds doubles, the play is worth ~ two and half times a much (2.46x)

 

EXCITEMENT IS NOT LINEAR

 

A 10% play is now worth 2.46 times as much as 5% play

A 20% play is now worth 2.46 times as much as 10% play

A 50% play is now worth 2.46 times as much as a 25% play

The system has a single parameter applied to ALL plays, so a game isn’t screwed if it has four great plays or the best play comes in the 8^th inning. Ranking games this way, here are the five games better than, and worse than, my two test cases.

 

Series	Road Team	home team	IP	(WPA^1.3) *2	WPA	Top Play	# Plays	P>= .1	P>= .2	P>=.3	P>=.5
2014 ALCS G1	Royals 8	Orioles 6	10	5	5.14	35.0%	96	13	3	2	–
1935 WS G3	Tigers 6	Cubs 5	11	4.97	5.02	36.0%	96	15	5	1	–
1976 NLCS G3	Phillies 6	Reds 7	9	4.95	4.72	46.0%	82	14	3	2	–
2015 ALDS2 G2	Rangers 6	Blue Jays 4	14	4.93	5.46	37.0%	115	7	2	1	–
1997 ALCS G4	Orioles 7	Indians 8	9	4.92	4.92	38.0%	88	16	4	1	–
1985 NLCS G6	Cardinals 7	Dodgers 5	9	4.92	4.48	74.0%	83	9	4	2	1
1975 NLCS G3	Reds 5	Pirates 3	10	4.88	4.52	55.0%	81	14	3	3	1
1933 WS G4	Giants 2	Senators 1	11	4.87	4.94	55.0%	92	9	3	1	1
2011 ALCS G2	Tigers 3	Rangers 7	11	4.86	5.10	34.0%	92	13	3	1	–
2012 ALDS2 G2	Athletics 4	Tigers 5	9	4.86	4.86	41.0%	85	11	4	1	–
1999 NLCS G6	Mets 9	Braves 10	11	4.85	5.12	26.0%	108	14	3	–	–

 

 

Series	Road	home team	IP	(WPA^1.3) *2	WPA	Top Play	# Plays	P>= .1	P>= .2	P>=.3	P>=.5
1952 WS G5	Dodgers 6	Yankees 5	10	4.51	4.70	44.0%	92	10	4	1	–
1923 WS G1	Giants 5	Yankees 4	9	4.51	4.54	40.0%	78	12	2	2	–
1984 NLCS G4	Cubs 5	Padres 7	9	4.51	4.54	37.0%	83	10	4	2	–
1992 WS G2	Blue Jays 5	Braves 4	9	4.5	4.40	65.0%	85	11	1	1	1
1998 ALCS G2	Indians 4	Yankees 1	12	4.48	4.78	33.0%	96	11	3	1	–
1988 WS G1	Athletics 4	Dodgers 5	9	4.47	3.98	87.0%	82	5	2	2	1
2000 NLCS G2	Mets 6	Cardinals 5	9	4.46	4.66	32.0%	91	13	3	2	–
2016 NLDS2 G5	Dodgers 4	Nationals 3	9	4.46	4.66	21.0%	84	14	1	–	–
1977 WS G1	Dodgers 3	Yankees 4	12	4.45	4.80	30.0%	97	11	2	1	–
1954 WS G1	Indians 2	Giants 5	10	4.43	4.74	29.0%	89	11	1	–	–
1958 WS G1	Yankees 3	Braves 4	10	4.43	4.56	40.0%	88	10	3	2	–

 

 

I hope you’ll look at these and see that while they have different shapes, they all contain a similar ‘volume’ of excitement.

Another way to evaluate the method is to look at games with the same WPA. Going back to where I began in this article, here are the seven games with a base WPA of 4.52 (No promises that BBRef has not revised the scores since I captured the data…). They are each tied for the 108^th highest WPA. But after using the 1.3 power factoring, you get this:

Game	Outcome	RANK	(WPA^1.3)*2	WPA	# Plays	Top 5 Plays	# plays 30-70%	P>= .1	P>= .2	P>= .3	P>= .5
1960 WS G7	Pit 10 NYY 9 in 9	52	5.10	4.52	77	1.74	25	15	4	3	1
1975 NLCS G3	Cin 5 Pit 3 in 10	63	4.88	4.52	81	1.60	49	14	3	3	1
1911 WS G3	A’s 3 Giants 2 in 11	110	4.41	4.52	86	1.10	58	15	3	1	–
1998 NLCS G1	SD 3 Atl 2 in 10	117	4.36	4.52	84	1.10	59	11	2	1	–
2011 NLDS2 G5	Ari 3 Mil 2 in 10	119	4.35	4.52	85	1.05	71	13	2	1	–
1926 WS G5	NYY 3 StL 2 in 10	130	4.20	4.52	86	0.84	66	16	1	–	–
1995 NLCS G2	Atl 6 Cin 2 in 10	139	4.12	4.52	95	0.75	70	13	–	–	–

 

1960 gets the love it deserves, moving up 56 spots to the 52^nd best game. That despite of having the fewest plays in the 30%-70% victory range. Games with more plays do worse since that means they have smaller impact plays on average. Think of the Top 5 plays as the highlight reel for the game. 1995 NLCS Game 2 has no play >0.2 and therefore drops 31 spots in the rankings.

Adjusted WPS? Weighted WPS? Power WPS? I really do need to give it a proper name.

 

A Final example, from among the greatest Playoff games ever.

2000 NLDS G3: Mets 3, Giants 2 in 13 innings — ModWPS Rank = 11, PowerWPS Rank = 22

1986 ALCS G5: Red Sox 7, Angels 6 in 11 innings — ModWPS Rank = 22, PowerWPS Rank = 12

1980 NLCS G5: Phillies 8, Astros 7 in 10 innings — ModWPS Rank = 25, PowerWPS Rank = 14

 

The 2000 game had the higher WPS, partly because it had more plays. ModWPS likes it more due to the additional action and walk-off homer, which the better top-three plays in 80/86 could not overcome.

 

year        WPS      Plays      Last Play    Top-3     ModWPS

2000       6.34        109         0.42          0.98                 7.74

1986       5.86       97           0.05             1.42                 7.33

1980       6.06        93           0.04            1.11                 7.21

 

So why do I think 1986/1980 are better?

Because, the deeper you go beyond the top three, the better the other two are revealed to be.

 

2000                                       1986                                       1980

1.28                                        1.94                                        1.61                        Sum of Top-5 Plays

42-31-25-16-14                  73-35-34-32-20                  40-38-35-26-24     Top-5 Plays

1.88                                        2.77                                        2.43                        Sum of Top-10 Plays

16-3-2-0                               14-5-4-1                               17-6-3-0               10%-20%-30%-50% plays

 

Or simply check the line scores.

2000

0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (2) Giants

0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 (3) Mets

1986

0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 1         (7) Red Sox

0 0 1 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 0         (6) Angels

1980

0 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 1             (8) Phillies

1 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 0             (7) Astros

 

The 2000 game IS a fabulous game. But the 1986 and 1980 games are more epic, with all the late-inning heroics. The 2000 game has exactly the required three big plays and the walk-off. It checks all the boxes.

I do kinda feel bad writing this. It sounds like I’m just picking on modified WPS here. LOOK AT WHAT ELSE IT GOT WRONG…

But as I said before, Power WPS is barely better. And to show that it’s better at all, I need to show those rare cases where it makes a better call. And it was an excellent benchmark, comparing differences between it and my sixty-eleven schemes helped me identify the flaws in sixty-ten of them.

Of course, even this is not the perfect system. Any play-by-play method will still fail to capture the in-play action. A bases-empty foul pop-out rates exactly the same as a bases-empty thrown-out-at-home-trying-to-stretch-a-triple. But it is the best we can do for now.

Whereas I used to guess my line score method captured maybe 70% of the excitement of a game, PBP ratings must be capturing upwards of 90%. Which means greater confidence in game rankings and playoff series ratings.

Anyway, if anyone has any thoughts, feedback, or questions I’d love to hear them. If no one can shoot the idea full of holes, or even one hole; then comes ranking and lists of games and series.