Analyzing the New Prince Fielder
Prince Fielder has an interesting new look compared to the rest of his career. He built a profile for himself as a patient powerful left-handed batter and with his swing and tendencies there was no reason to expect a shift. After 10 seasons in the MLB, Prince Fielder has re-invented himself after undergoing a spinal fusion surgery after the 2014 season.
The Raw Data
First, let’s take a look at Fielder’s batting trends over the past four years, excluding 2014 due to injury.
The first thing we can see from this is that he’s completely changed the way he approaches his at-bats. His walk rate is down from his career average of 12.7% to a pedestrian 8.8%.
Comparing his swing% charts, it’s easy to see why his walk rate is down. Fielder is swinging at more pitches in almost every part of the zone. Usually this would also correlate with an increased strikeout rate, but Fielder is throwing that out as well. Fielder has a career low 11% strikeout rate. He’s making consistent contact and putting the ball in play.
The final piece to figuring out the difference with Fielder is the kind of contact that he’s making and where he his making it to. Prince’s .343 BABIP is extremely high compared to his career average of .306, but after 400 at bats, small sample size problems are decreasing. However, the inflated BABIP cannot be explained by his batted ball data, as his LD%, GB%, FB%, and Hard Hit% are all around his career averages.
The only other places to look are his spray charts.
The main difference here seems to be that Prince has not been hitting into the teeth of the over-shift near as much when compared to years before. This could explain why his batting average is up from his career average of .288 to .329.
Analysis
Prince Fielder’s largest shift is in his approach. He’s significantly more aggressive at the plate, all while keeping his strikeout rate low and his batted ball rates in line with career averages. To put it into perspective, his current 8.8% walk and 11.0% strike out rates are closer to Juan Pierre’s career averages than his own.
Fielder is also significantly more adept at hitting ground balls to the left side, decreasing the effect of the over-shift that is usually employed against him. Both his and his low strikeout rate support his increased batting average.
The largest worrying trend is his HR/FB rate, which is 12.7% this season. It is significantly lower than his career average of 18.4%. However, seeing as though he just had a spinal fusion surgery, it is not surprising that he has lost a bit of power.
Conclusion
While Fielder is having a very solid comeback year, there are some concerning trends going forward. Usually an aging player with decreased walk and power rates precedes a rapid decline. However, with Princes other encouraging trends like his strikeout rate and getting his hard-hit rate back to career averages, it is hard to predict how the rest of his career will go. Projection models will not have a very easy time projecting him over the next few seasons, but if I were to guess, I would say that Prince will either age more like a low-strikeout line-drive hitter over an aging power hitter.
Unless of course, he decides to change his style again.