Analyzing the FanGraphs’ Mock Draft from an Outsider’s Point of View — 2B

As an avid reader of FanGraphs, I’ve been following the ongoing mock draft and thought it would be interesting to compare the results to the dollar value rankings I created using Steamer’s 2015 projections.

I downloaded the draft spreadsheet partway through the 16^th round, just after pick 183 (Chase Headley). Here is a breakdown, position-by-position. I’ve included the overall pick and the dollar value for that player based on 2015 Steamer projections in parentheses.

Second Base

At the top of the rankings for second base, there are two clear-cut guys, according to Steamer projections: Robinson Cano and Jose Altuve. Cano (7^th–$29) was taken with the 7^th pick of the 1^st round, ahead of Jose Abreu, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion, all of whom project to be more valuable. Cano saw a big drop-off in home run production in his first season in Seattle. After hitting 25 or more homers for five consecutive years, Cano hit just 14 in 2014. Steamer projects him to hit 18 in 2015. Jose Altuve (15^th–$32) was taken 8 picks later, but projects to be more valuable, thanks mainly to his potential for 30 or more steals and a higher batting average. Personally, I would not have taken Cano ahead of Abreu, Bautista, or Encarnacion. I’m not sure he’s still a 1^st-round pick. I could see an argument for taking him ahead of Altuve, despite the Steamer projections.

Three more second basemen were taken in rounds 3 and 4: Jason Kipnis (36^th–$12), Ian Kinsler (40^th–$22), and Dee Gordon (45^th–$14). Gordon has his own unique set of skills, so I’ll set him aside for a moment and compare Kipnis to Kinsler. Kinsler was clearly better than Kipnis last year, although Kipnis was dealing with injuries. Here are their three-year averages:

552 AB, 78 R, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 28 SB, .261 AVG—Jason Kipnis

628 AB, 97 R, 16 HR, 79 RBI, 17 SB, .269 AVG—Ian Kinsler

This is how Steamer projects them for 2015:

540 AB, 71 R, 13 HR, 62 RBI, 20 SB, .253 AVG—Jason Kipnis ($12)

612 AB, 87 R, 16 HR, 67 RBI, 14 SB, .266 AVG—Ian Kinsler ($22)

The x-factor is that Kipnis will be 28 in 2015 and Kinsler will be 33. If you expect Kinsler to start an early-30s fade, then perhaps Kipnis is your guy. I would have taken Kinsler first.

As for Gordon, he’s one of very few players in baseball who can be expected to steal 50 or more bases (he had 64 last year). If you’re willing to take the hit in home runs and RBI to get the bulk of your steals from one guy, he’s a good option. Otherwise, you’ll likely be looking at needing two or three players to get you 50 steals.

Two more second basemen were taken in the 7^th round: Brian Dozier (76^th–$11) and Dustin Pedroia (81^st–$17). Brian Dozier has hit 18 and 23 homers in the last two seasons, albeit with a low .240s batting average. He also scored a surprising 112 runs last year and stole 21 bases. Dustin Pedroia has seen his power drop, going from 21 homers in 2011 to 15 to 9 to last year’s 7. His steals have also fallen off considerably, from 26 to 20 to 17 to 6. Here are their 2015 Steamer projections:

576 AB, 78 R, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 16 SB, .240 AVG—Brian Dozier ($11)

553 AB, 78 R, 10 HR, 68 RBI, 10 SB, .283 AVG—Dustin Pedrioa ($17)

Even though Pedroia’s projected to be more valuable, I could see going with Dozier based on recent trends. Also, he’s three years younger.

In rounds 9 and 10, three more second basemen were drafted: Howie Kendrick (99^th–$2), Javier Baez (112^th–$5), and Kolten Wong (114^th–$1). Steamer projects Kendrick to drop back to his 2013 levels, as opposed to what he did in 2014. It’s a significant drop of 30 runs scored, 17 RBI, 6 steals, and about 20 points of batting average, which considerably drops his value. Baez is a high-risk, high-reward player. He could hit the 23 homers projected by Steamer (with a 30% strikeout rate) or he could strike out 40% of the time and be sent back to the minors for more seasoning. We just don’t know. Wong hit 12 homers and stole 20 bases in 113 games in 2014, so he has the most potential as a HR/SB dual-threat. He’s also projected for less playing time than Kendrick, which cuts into his value.

The next three second basemen drafted would appear to be “safer” picks than the previous three: Daniel Murphy (123^rd–$8), Ben Zobrist (129^th–$12), and Neil Walker (139^th–$11). These three also project to be more valuable than the previous three. Let’s look at their projections:

572 AB, 67 R, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 11 SB, .277 AVG—Daniel Murphy ($8)

540 AB, 75 R, 12 HR, 61 RBI, 9 SB, .262 AVG—Ben Zobrist ($12)

501 AB, 67 R, 17 HR, 66 RBI, 3 SB, .273 AVG—Neil Walker ($11)

Zobrist gets a slight bump because he has shortstop eligibility (31 games played there in 2014). With the shortstop replacement level, Zobrist is worth $12. Based on the second base replacement level, he’s worth $10. With these three players, you can expect more homers from Walker, more steals from Murphy, and you have the multi-positional eligibility of Zobrist.

One could easily argue that any or all of these three players could be drafted before the previous group of three (Kendrick, Baez, and Wong). In this mock draft, Kendrick was taken 40 picks ahead of Walker, but Walker projects to be better in runs, HR, and RBI, with fewer steals and a very similar batting average.

The final second baseman taken by this point of the draft was Chase Utley (176^th–$6). After struggling with injuries for the previous four seasons, Utley played in 155 games last year. He will be 36 in 2015 and Steamer projects him to play in 136 games. He is projected to have similar value as Daniel Murphy, who was taken 53 spots ahead of Utley. Here are their 2015 Steamer projections:

572 AB, 67 R, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 11 SB, .277 AVG—Daniel Murphy (123^rd pick–$8)

544 AB, 65 R, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 7 SB, .258 AVG—Chase Utley (176^th pick–$6)

If you believe in these projections, there really is no reason to take Murphy in the 11^th round if you can get Utley in the 15^th. Let’s look at their three-year averages:

608 AB, 78 R, 9 HR, 67 RBI, 15 SB, .288 AVG—Daniel Murphy

455 AB, 65 R, 13 HR, 64 RBI, 10 SB, .272 AVG—Chase Utley

Here, you can make an argument for taking Murphy well ahead of Utley, with their respective ages (30 for Murphy, 36 for Utley) adding to that argument.

Final notes: Robinson Cano and Jose Altuve are the top tier guys. In this draft, Kipnis was next off the board, but I would have had Kinsler on a tier of his own, with Kipnis dropping down to a tier including Dee Gordon, Brian Dozier, and Dustin Pedroia, with arguments for Ben Zobrist, Neil Walker, Dan Murphy, and perhaps Howie Kendrick being in the mix. Javier Baez and Kolten Wong are there for owners who like to gamble a bit, with Utley left over for those who miss out on the rest and believe he can stay healthy enough to contribute in 2015.