Analyzing the FanGraphs Early Mock Draft from an Outsider’s Point of View – SPs 41-60

The following is a look at the 41^st through 60^th starting pitcher taken in the FanGraphs Early Mock Draft, with a comparison to their rankings based on 2015 Steamer projections.

Starting Pitchers: 41-50

The table below shows starting pitchers taken 41^st through 50^th in this mock, along with their Steamer rank and the difference between their Steamer rank and the spot they were drafted. Pitchers with a positive difference were taken higher than their Steamer projection would suggest. Those with a negative difference were taken later than Steamer would have expected.

FanGraphs Mock Draft SPs 41-50 vs Steamer Rankings
PCK	RND	$$	SP-Rnk	NAME	Steamer Rank	Difference
149	13	$1	41	Justin Verlander	63	22
153	13	$7	42	Gio Gonzalez	45	3
160	14	$0	43	Chris Archer	66	23
167	14	$10	44	Danny Salazar	30	-14
169	15	$20	45	Jose Fernandez	17	-28
174	15	$7	46	Lance Lynn	44	-2
180	15	$1	47	Andrew Cashner	65	18
181	16	$8	48	Ian Kennedy	37	-11
182	16	-$5	49	Mat Latos	97	48
185	16	$10	50	Scott Kazmir	31	-19

 

Justin Verlander was drafted as the 41^st starting pitcher in this mock, but Steamer doesn’t see Verlander being worth that pick, pegging him for 63^rd among starting pitchers. Verlander is coming off his worst season since 2008, when he had a 4.84 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Verlander bounced back from that ugly 2008 season with a much-improved 2009 season (3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), but he was 26 at the time. Now he’s 32 and less likely to bounce back like he did in his youth.

Chris Archer was another guy who went earlier than Steamer projections would expect. Archer was the 43^rd pitcher drafted but is ranked 66^th by Steamer. In his three years in the major leagues, Archer has a career 3.39 ERA. His FIP (3.64), xFIP (3.75), and SIERA (3.78) are not as favorable. Steamer is projecting an ERA of 3.96 and 1.31 WHIP, which knocks him out of the top 60 starting pitchers.

Another pitcher not well regarded by Steamer is Andrew Cashner, taken 47^th among starting pitchers but ranked 65^th. Cashner has a career ERA of 3.25 but Steamer is projecting a 3.96 ERA in 2015. Cashner’s ZiPS projection is a much more favorable 3.27 ERA.

Finally, Mat Latos has the biggest discrepancy of any pitcher in the top 50 between where he was drafted (49^th starting pitcher off the board) and where Steamer would rank him (97^th). Latos has not had an ERA over 3.50 since a 10-games stint as a rookie in 2009, but Steamer is projecting a 4.12 ERA for 2015. To be fair, that’s not far off Latos’ 2014 FIP (3.99) or SIERA (4.08).

The Steamer “bargains” in this group of ten pitchers were Danny Salazar, Jose Fernandez, Ian Kennedy, and Scott Kazmir.

Danny Salazar was a popular pick heading into last season after a very good 10-game major league debut in 2013 (3.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 11.3 K/9). On the face of it, Salazar struggled last year, finishing with a 4.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The biggest culprit was a .343 BABIP, though, and his FIP (3.52), xFIP (3.45), and SIERA (3.33) were much better than his ERA. Also, he struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings. I don’t have a projection from ZiPS for Salazar, but his Steamer projection (3.62 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) is better than Cairo (3.69, 1.51) or Davenport (3.95, 1.30). Taken as the 44^th starting pitcher, Steamer sees great value here.

Jose Fernandez was taken two picks after Salazar (45^th starting pitcher), but is even more well-liked by Steamer (ranked 17^th). In 36 major league starts over two seasons, Fernandez has a career ERA of 2.25 and WHIP of 0.97. Fernandez is coming off Tommy John surgery and is likely to miss the first couple months of the season. Steamer is projecting 20 starts with a 2.93 ERA. The current Fans projections have Fernandez with 18 starts and a 3.00 ERA. ZiPS projects 19 starts and a 2.87 ERA. You know he’ll be good, it’s just a matter of how many innings he’ll provide and where you want to draft him to get those quality innings.

Scott Kazmir was the 50^th starting pitcher drafted and is ranked 31^st by Steamer. Kazmir has had a long strange journey in his major league career that led him to miss the entire 2012 season. He came back with the Indians in 2013 and had a 4.04 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Last year he pitched for Oakland and had his best season since 2007, finishing with a 3.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Steamer is projecting a 3.71 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, good for 31^st among starting pitchers.

Starting Pitchers: 51-60

FanGraphs Mock Draft SPs 51-60 vs Steamer Rankings
PCK	RND	$$	SP-Rnk	NAME	Steamer Rank	Difference
186	16	$10	51	Homer Bailey	28	-23
187	16	-$3	52	Henderson Alvarez	84	32
188	16	$8	53	Anibal Sanchez	38	-15
190	16	$9	54	Phil Hughes	34	-20
191	16	$4	55	Drew Hutchison	52	-3
194	17	-$8	56	James Paxton	118	62
199	17	$2	57	Jake Odorizzi	60	3
203	17	-$1	58	Jered Weaver	74	16
207	18	$1	59	Collin McHugh	62	3
208	18	$9	60	Francisco Liriano	33	-27

 

The final group of pitchers who rounded out the top sixty starting pitchers taken in this mock draft are a mixed bunch. There were four guys taken at least 15 picks later than Steamer would suggest (Homer Bailey, Anibal Sanchez, Phil Hughes, and Francisco Liriano). These are the “bargains” of the 16^th, 17^th, and 18^th rounds.

Homer Bailey had his 2014 season cut short in August with a flexor mass tendon injury. He’s been a solid major league pitcher for the last three years (3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and Steamer is projecting more of the same (3.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).

Anibal Sanchez is also coming off a year with some injuries. He missed time in early May and again in August and September, finishing the year with 21 starts and 126 innings pitched (3.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). Steamer projects Sanchez to be relatively healthy, with 28 starts (3.80 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). He is ranked 38^th among starting pitchers according to Steamer projections but wasn’t taken until the 53^rd pick in this mock.

Phil Hughes is an interesting character. From 2011 to 2013, Hughes had an ERA of 4.83 with a 1.37 WHIP. He struck out 7.3 batters per nine innings and walked 2.5 per nine. Last year, he suddenly decided to never walk anyone, dropping his BB/9 to a microscopic 0.7. He also upped his strikeout rate to 8.0 K/9 and finished with a 3.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Steamer has some belief in the 2014 version of Philip Hughes, projecting a 3.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 1.6 BB/9, good enough to be the 34^th-best starting pitcher based on Steamer projections. Hughes was the 54^th starting pitcher taken, so if you agree with Steamer that Phil Hughes can keep that walk rate down, then hop on board the Phil Hughes Express.

The fourth “bargain” taken among this group of pitchers was Francisco Liriano, on the board until the 208^th pick, the 60^th starting pitcher drafted. In his two seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Liriano has a 3.20 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. For the rest of his career, he has a 4.40 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He re-signed with the Pirates and Steamer likes him for 2015—3.59 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 (ranked 33^rd among starting pitchers).

In this last group of pitchers, there were two guys who stood out as overdrafts, based on Steamer—Henderson Alvarez and James Paxton. Alvarez had a shiny 2.65 ERA in 2014, but his FIP (3.58), xFIP (3.57), and SIERA (3.70) say “buyer beware.” The biggest issue with Alvarez is a low strikeout rate, just 4.8 K/9 for his career. He was the 52^nd pitcher drafted but is ranked 84^th by Steamer.

Finally, James Paxton was the 56^th starting pitcher drafted but Steamer has him way down at 118^th. In 17 starts over two seasons with the Mariners, Paxton has a career 2.66 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but Steamer is projecting a 4.14 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. That seems way off to me, but I’m not a computer program designed to project baseball statistics. The Fans Projections (10 so far) expect Paxton to be much better than that—3.25 ERA, 1.23 WHIP.

After 60 starting pitchers were drafted, there were 11 starting pitchers who had not yet been drafted, including three in the top 30:

SteamerRank	Pitcher
22	Brandon McCarthy
25	John Lackey
26	Mike Fiers
39	Jake Peavy
43	Michael Pineda
48	Matt Cain
50	Tony Cingrani
53	Jason Hammel
54	CC Sabathia
55	Wei-Yin Chen
56	Dan Haren