Analyzing the FanGraphs Early Mock Draft from an Outsider’s Point of View – SPs 1-20

The following is a look at the first 20 starting pitchers taken in the FanGraphs Early Mock Draft, with a comparison to their rankings based on 2015 Steamer projections.

Starting Pitchers: 1-10

Every owner has his own theory on when to draft starting pitchers. Some like to get a couple of big guns early. Some won’t take a starting pitcher in the first few rounds because of the inherent uncertainty around pitchers. Some prefer to wait on pitching and go for high-risk, high-upside arms late in the draft or feel confident trolling the waiver wire during the season.

In this twelve-team mock draft, there were 12 starting pitchers taken in the first five rounds. These twelve pitchers were divided up among nine teams, with Zach Sanders being the first owner to draft two starting pitchers when he chose Felix Hernandez and Corey Kluber back-to-back at the end of the 2^nd and beginning of the 3^rd round. After Sanders, five other teams grabbed their second starter in the 5^th and 6^th rounds. The three owners who held off on pitchers were Pod, the Blue Sox, and Dan Schwartz, who all waited until the 7^th round or later to take their first starting pitcher.

The table below shows the first 10 pitchers drafted in this mock, along with their Steamer rank and the difference between their Steamer rank and the spot they were drafted. Pitchers with a positive difference were taken higher than their Steamer projection would suggest. Those with a negative difference were taken later than Steamer would have expected.

FanGraphs Mock Draft Top-10 Starting Pitchers vs Steamer Rankings
PCK	RND	$$	SP-Rnk	NAME	Steamer Rank	Difference
5	1	$53	1	Clayton Kershaw	1	0
19	2	$37	2	Chris Sale	2	0
22	2	$37	3	Felix Hernandez	4	1
27	3	$28	4	Corey Kluber	9	5
31	3	$37	5	Max Scherzer	3	-2
33	3	$34	6	Madison Bumgarner	5	-1
37	4	$33	7	Stephen Strasburg	6	-1
39	4	$28	8	Yu Darvish	10	2
41	4	$29	9	David Price	8	-1
52	5	$21	10	Johnny Cueto	14	4

 

There was mostly agreement between the drafters and Steamer among the first 10 pitchers drafted. Corey Kluber went 5 picks earlier than his projection would suggest and Johnny Cueto went 4 picks early, but most pitchers were within a spot or two of their Steamer projected ranking.

Kluber has seen his K% jump from 19.2 to 22.4 to 28.3% over the last three years. Steamer expects some regression there, down to a 25.0% strikeout rate, but that’s still terrific. Kluber was solid in 2013 but last year was his first elite season. Is that enough to take him ahead of Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish, and David Price?

Johnny Cueto was taken 9^th and is the #14 pitcher by Steamer projection. Cueto had a big jump in innings from 60 innings in 2013 to 243 2/3 innings in 2014. That’s an unusual jump in the number of innings pitched from one year to the next and we just don’t know how it might affect him in 2015.

Starting Pitchers: 11-20

The next 10 starting pitchers were taken over rounds 5 through 9. Here’s the chart:

FanGraphs Mock Draft Next-10 Starting Pitchers vs Steamer Rankings
PCK	RND	$$	SP-Rnk	NAME	Steamer Rank	Difference
54	5	$23	11	Jon Lester	13	2
60	5	$20	12	Jordan Zimmermann	18	6
63	6	$30	13	Zack Greinke	7	-6
64	6	$19	14	Cole Hamels	19	5
65	6	$20	15	Adam Wainwright	15	0
74	7	$6	16	Julio Teheran	46	30
84	7	$2	17	Sonny Gray	61	44
86	8	$8	18	Gerrit Cole	40	22
96	8	$25	19	Matt Harvey	11	-8
97	9	$12	20	Carlos Carrasco	27	7

 

Here we start to see some big differences between the Steamer projection rankings and where some of these guys were taken in this mock. Jordan Zimmermann was taken about six picks early, according to Steamer, while Zack Greinke was taken six picks late. The big differences came with the 16^th, 17^th, and 18^th starting pitchers drafted—Julio Teheran, Sonny Gray, and Gerrit Cole.

Over the last two years, Julio Teheran has won 28 games with a 3.03 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, but with a 3.58 FIP. Steamer projects 10 wins, a 3.81 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, making him the 46^th-most-valuable starting pitcher. It should be noted that ZiPS has Teheran with a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, which would move him into the top 20.

Sonny Gray was the 17^th starting pitcher drafted in this mock and is ranked 61^st by Steamer. In his two-year big league career, Gray has a 2.99 ERA and 1.17 WHIP (with a 3.29 FIP, 3.34 xFIP, and 3.44 SIERA). Steamer is projecting a 3.81 ERA and 1.31 WHIP (3.62 FIP). A couple of reasons for this increase in ERA would be a higher projected BABIP (.297 compared to a career .277 mark) and lower LOB% (70.2% compared to a 74.6% career mark). ZiPS has Gray projected for a 3.36 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.

Like Gray, Gerrit Cole has just two years in the bigs. In 41 career starts, he has a career 3.45 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (3.09 FIP, 3.20 xFIP, 3.28 SIERA). His Steamer projection calls for a 3.63 ERA and 1.24 WHIP (3.43 FIP), which ranks him 40^th.

Julio Teheran, Sonny Gray, and Gerrit Cole were all taken well before their Steamer projections would suggest, but their actual career ERAs and WHIPs are much more favorable. It’s never a good idea to be a slave to projections, so if you like their upside, feel free to take them this early. Some pitchers taken shortly after Teheran, Gray, and Cole who are projected by Steamer to be more valuable were Matt Harvey, Carlos Carrasco, Alex Cobb, Masahiro Tanaka, and Hisashi Iwakuma.

Rounding out the top 20 pitchers taken in this mock were back-to-back selections by Dan Schwartz of Matt Harvey and Carlos Carrasco. These were the first two starting pitchers taken by Schwartz. He was able to hold off on starting pitching until the last pick of the 8^th round and still got two guys with great upside. Neither Harvey nor Carrasco are likely to be workhorses, but they could both be top starting pitchers in 2015.

There were four pitchers who rank in the Steamer top 20 who were not drafted in the top 20 in this mock draft—Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jose Fernandez, Cole Hamels, and Hisashi Iwakuma.

Up next: Starting Pitchers 21-40