Analyzing the Big Boys’ Team Peripherals

There are a few really good teams this year. The Dodgers and Astros are really destroying their divisions, although the Astros have been slowed down by injuries a little. The Nats are also really good despite their bullpen struggles, that they tried to fix with a few trades.  There are also the Red Sox and the Yankees, who started really well. I will also include last year’s World Series finalists, who had a mediocre first half but really turned it on in July and on paper have very strong teams that should compete with the other top teams.

Let’s start with hitting. I used wRC+, K, BB, ISO, my own K-BB-ISO, xWOBA and BABIP.

	wRC+	K	BB	ISO	K%-BB%-ISO	BABIP	xWOBA
Astros	129	17.3	8.2	0.211	-0.120	0.317	0.336
Dodgers	111	22.5	10.6	0.194	-0.075	0.307	0.332
Nats	108	20.4	8.8	0.199	-0.083	0.315	0.329
Yankees	108	22.6	9.8	0.183	-0.055	0.308	0.328
Indians	107	18.3	9.8	0.178	-0.093	0.300	0.330
Cubs	98	21.8	9.8	0.188	-0.068	0.286	0.318
Boston	92	18.6	9.1	0.144	-0.049	0.304	0.314

The Astros have clearly been the best hitting team. Their BABIP might regress some, but they also lead in xXOBA, K-BB-ISO, ISO and contact. Behind them, the Dodgers, Yankees, Nats and Indians form a group that is pretty close together by all the stats. The Cubs are clearly behind in wRC+ but they also have the lowest BABIP at .286 that might be due to some regression. The Statcast-based xWOBA suggests that it was not all bad luck but in ISO, contact and my combined stat, only the Astros clearly are superior to them. The Cubs also have a July WRC+ of 113, which is fourth of the group behind the Astros (152), Dodgers (120) and Indians (115) with a not outrageous .307 BABIP.

Boston, however, clearly is the last team out of the bunch. They are last by xwOBA, wRC+, K-BB-ISO and ISO. Contact, walks and BABIP are OK, but Boston this year simply doesn’t have power; their ISO is actually second-last in MLB.

If we want to create tiers of hitting, the Astros are alone in their own tier. Of course, currently half of their lineup is on the DL, but hopefully that changes and then they should be number one again. After them, there is a tier out of the Nats, Dodgers, Indians and also the Cubs. The Cubs have been clearly worse in results and are closer to Boston in that regard, but their lowish BABIP, their preseason projections and their last very good month, as well as their peripherals, make me grade them on par with the other non-Astros teams. All those teams are pretty close in talent and should be projected for about a 105-110 wRC+ the rest of the way.

And then there is Boston, clearly the worst out of the pack no matter how you slice it.

Then there is pitching:

	xWOBA	FIP	K-BB
Dodgers	0.273	3.42	18.7
Houston	0.295	3.88	18.3
Yankees	0.297	3.86	17.0
Washington	0.301	4.10	15.8
Boston	0.306	3.80	17.5
Cubs	0.309	4.21	14.1
Indians	0.304	3.61	19.2

Here the Dodgers clearly lead the field, being first in xwOBA against and FIP and second in K-BB. After them, we have the Indians, who are a weaker team in xwOBA but second in FIP and first in K-BB, and Houston, who is second in xwOBA, third in K-BB and fourth in FIP. Boston is second in FIP and fourth in K-BB, and the Yankees are in the same tier. Washington and the Cubs are a bit weaker in that regard, but overall there are not huge differences, plus the Yankees and Cubs both had really big upgrades.

Tiers here would be the Dodgers and Indians first, then Red Sox and Yankees and third the Nats and Cubs, but the recent trades might have moved the Cubs into the second tier and the Yankees into the first tier.

By xWOBA differential you have:

Dodgers	0.059
Astros	0.041
Yankees	0.031
Nats	0.028
Red Sox	0.008
Indians	0.026
Cubs	0.009

the Dodgers ahead of the Astros, Yankees, Indians and Nats and the Red Sox and Cubs last. I think, however, that with the recent trades and their hitters getting hot, the Cubs are pretty close to at least the Yankees, Indians and Nats and not that far off the big two from LA and Houston, especially because they excel in defense, which was not included in my analysis. Boston unfortunately I don’t see quite in that tier, especially if Price doesn’t come back strong.