A New Option for the Nationals’ Closer

The Nationals have had what seems to be a perpetual issue at closer. They have churned through Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Rafael Soriano, Jonathan Papelbon, and now Mark Melancon. Some people have touted Koda Glover as the solution for the next half century, but he remains mostly untested. For a team with a great record of developing starting pitchers such as Jordan Zimmermann, Tanner Roark, and Stephen Strasburg, and a general manager in Mike Rizzo whose list of faults is one name long — Jonathan Papelbon (I’m still hopeful about Adam Eaton) — it is somewhat surprising that they have not been able to address the omnipresent glaring issue at the end of games. The potential solution might be in the starting rotation: Joe Ross.

It may not seem obvious, but Ross is a perfect candidate to be moved to the bullpen. Ross has never pitched a full season as a starter. He pitched 105 innings this most recent season, and missed the middle of the season sidelined with a shoulder ailment. The slider that he threw 39% of the time this season is known to wear down a pitcher’s arm, and it did wear down his brother Tyson’s. A move to the ‘pen might save Joe Ross’s arm.

Ross’ numbers are far superior his first time through the order. As Eno Sarris detailed in his article “Who Needs a New Pitch the Most,” Ross’s velocity decreased a full mile per hour during his average start, his strikeout rate dropped by over 10 percent, and his wOBA against shot up from .248 his first time through the order to .371 his second time through.

Most importantly, Ross really only throws two pitches, a slider and a sinker. Two pitches are typical of a reliever, but a solid third option is often required to stick in the rotation. His sinker currently averages about 93 mph, so a move to the end of games could see that number rise to 95. He might also be able to get away with throwing his slider, which batters have hit just .173 against, more often. That combination is tantalizing.

It doesn’t make sense to give up on Joe Ross as a starter just yet, but if his arm fizzles out yet again this season, the Nats should give him a shot in the ‘pen.