A Guaranteed HOF Snub

On January 5, the Hall of Fame class of 2011 will be announced. It appears that Bert Blyleven will finally get the call after 14 years on the ballot. Roberto Alomar is likely to receive the necessary votes as well. There will be a long list of deserving candidates left out this year. After the announcement, there will be no shortage of analysis of the snubbery. But we know for a fact that, even before the votes are tallied, one deserving candidate will not be inducted.

The 1984 season was magical for the Detroit Tigers. They won a franchise record 104 games during the regular season. They only lost one game in the postseason on their way to the World Series championship. Lou Whitaker had an average year by his standards: a 118 park- and league-adjusted wOBA (wRC+) while only saving two runs in the field. That Tigers team was carried by his teammates Alan Trammell, Kirk Gibson and Chet Lemon. Their star pitchers were Jack Morris and Cy Young and MVP winner Willie Hernandez.

Not just overshadowed on his own team, Sweet Lou also became second fiddle to another 2B in 1984. That was the year Ryne Sandberg became a star. Ryno notched a 147 wRC+ in addition to playing excellent defense — he saved 12 runs according to TotalZone. He won the National League MVP and led the Cubs to their first playoff appearance since 1945. The June 23rd game between the Cubs and Cardinals that year is even named after him. It is known simply as “The Sandberg Game.”

By 1991, the glory days of the Tigers were over. After seven straight winning seasons from 1982 to 1988, winning the World Series in 1984 and the division in 1987, the Tigers lost 186 games the previous two years. Kirk Gibson was by then more famous as a Dodger. Chet Lemon, Darrell Evans, and Willie Hernandez had retired. Jack Morris signed with his hometown Minnesota Twins in the offseason. The main attraction in Detroit was Cecil Fielder, who had become the first player since 1977 to hit 50 home runs. The only holdovers from the great 1984 season were the double-play combination, Trammell and Whitaker.

Whitaker was entering his age-34 season and coming off of a sub-par year. It looked as if he was starting the decline phase of his career. But strange things happen in baseball and Sweet Lou had a resurgence. He hit for more power than he ever had before (.489 SLG). He walked twice as much as he struck out (90/45 BB/K) and his 146 wRC+ was the highest of his career. Nineteen ninety-one marked the beginning of an offensive explosion that lasted until the end of his career.

The end of Whitaker’s career coincided with the beginning of another young second baseman’s career. Roberto Alomar was already a household name entering the 1991 season. He was an All-Star in his third Major League season and was a centerpiece of the biggest blockbuster trade of the offseason. He came from a baseball family. His father, Sandy Alomar Sr, had coached him with the San Diego Padres and Sandy Jr, his brother, had just won the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 1990. In 1991, Alomar had the best season of his career to that point. He went on to play in 12 consecutive All-Star games, win ten Gold Glove awards and finish in the top ten in the MVP voting five times.

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Baseball-Reference lists Ryne Sandberg and Roberto Alomar as the first and third most similar players for Lou Whitaker (Alan Trammell is second). As you can see from this Fangraphs WAR graph, Whitaker compares favorably to both Sandberg and Alomar. His peak was slightly lower, but he had a longer, more productive career than either.

Whitaker’s first year on the Hall of Fame ballot was 2001. He received 2.9% of the vote, well shy of the minimum needed to remain eligible. Sandberg gained entrance into the Hall of Fame in 2005 — his third year on the ballot — with 76.2% of the writers voting for him. Alomar received 73.7% of the votes last year and is almost a lock to be inducted this year — his second year of eligibility. How is someone so similar to Sandberg and Alomar not only kept out of the Hall of Fame, but not even on the ballot anymore?

When the writers first had the opportunity to vote for Whitaker in 2001, they had just seen Barry Bonds break the single-season home-run record with 73 bombs. It was the middle of the Steroid Era in baseball and offensive performances were off the charts. This was in stark contrast to the 1980’s. During Whitaker’s prime years (1983-86) the average game saw 4.33 runs scored, compared to 4.95 the four years prior to his Hall of Fame eligibility. The voters were just not impressed with a guy who batted only .276 for his career and hit only 244 homeruns.

It is hard to remember, but ten short years ago sabermetric ideas were still on the fringe of the baseball world. This was before Moneyball, before you could go online and find Lou Whitaker’s career wRC+, before most followers of baseball knew that on-base percentage was the most important offensive statistic. And Whitaker was outstanding at drawing walks. He walked almost 100 more times than he struck out in his career. His 1,197 career bases on balls are tied for 55th on the all-time list (fifth among 2B).

Sweet Lou’s other great skill was his defensive ability. This was, to some extent, evident to his contemporaries as he won three consecutive Gold Gloves from 1983 to 1985. But today’s advanced defensive metrics measure his defense as excellent throughout his career. According to TotalZone, Whitaker saved 77 runs during his 19 year career. Current Hall of Fame voters tend to overlook defensive value unless a player was an all-time great at shortstop, such as Ozzie Smith.

His ability to get on base combined with his exceptional defense allowed Whitaker to rack up value. He was worth 74.3 wins above replacement, which would rank eighth among Hall of Fame second baseman.

A special exception was made in 1985 to reinstate Ron Santo, Curt Flood, Denny McClain and a few others to the Hall of Fame ballot because they had been overlooked during their first go around. Unless another exception is made for Whitaker, he’ll have to wait until 2017 for a possible vote via the Veterans Committee. If Santo has not been inducted by then, Sweet Lou may be overshadowed once again.

Originally posted on Cut Four