[Part I was published here and here]

In the previous post we discussed essentially two questions: First, whether there is a relationship between team payroll and wins. Second, has this relationship changed in time? If so, where are the peaks? Where are we now? Let’s continue digging this topic up.

Question 3: Will money buy you a ring or a post-season ticket? If so, how much should we spend?

Let’s start by saying that nothing will buy you a championship ring. But money can and will improve your odds! I’d say it can get your foot in the door.

The following graph shows the probability of reaching the playoffs, winning the American or National League or winning the World Series at the beginning of each season (BoS). I have split teams into three tiers depending on their payroll total each year. The low tier refers to the bottom 33% payroll total of all teams in a season, medium tier goes from 33% to 66% and top tier is the top 34%. Keep in mind I am analyzing data from 1976 to 2015, excluding 1994 due to the strike. I have also added to the graph below the expected probability for each event e.g. playoff appearance, league win and World Series win. The expected probability is the natural probability each team has at the beginning of the season; for example, each team has 1/30, or ~3.3%, chance of winning the World Series. In the long run, in a very competitive and balanced league, the numbers should be closer to the expected rates, however they are not.

Did you see that? Let’s state the obvious first: Large-payroll teams had done better than the rest of the teams, i.e. got to the playoffs as well as reached and won the World Series more frequently than low and medium tiers. Let’s digest that again: top-tier teams are almost four times more likely to reach the playoffs than low-tier teams. As we move along in the postseason, as expected, high-budget teams win more often. While the rich teams got to the playoffs at a ~80% better rate than expected, they won the World Series at a ~106% better rate than expected.

Let’s look at the tiny 0.3% of low-tier teams that won the Series. I should say team. I am talking about the Miami Marlins in 2003. They are the only low-tier team that has won the Series, since 1976. Amusingly, they beat the Yankees.

Now, these numbers do not show the full picture because I am compounding the effect of being eliminated in the previous step of the event I am measuring. For example, you can’t win the World Series if you did not win your league. You can’t win the league if you did not make it to the playoffs. Let’s dial back and think of the probability of winning the World Series once you are in the World Series. The same situation happens with the league championship probability. Let’s calculate out of the teams that are already in the playoffs. The graph below shows the probability of winning at the beginning of each event (BoE). Does that make sense? I hope it does.

Let’s go over each event, from left to right: First, playoff appearance probability remains the same as before. Mid- and low-tier budget teams reached the playoffs with a lower probability than you would expect. The second bucket is related to winning the league (read: reaching the World Series) once you are in the playoffs. For example in 2015 there were 10 teams in the playoffs (five teams per league). The expected probability of those teams to reach the World Series is 20%. With the inclusion of the Wild Card and then the second Wild Card, that number has decreased but historically sits at 31%. While top and mid-tier payroll teams have reached the World Series more frequently than the benchmark would suggest the difference is small and, interestingly, higher for mid-tier teams. It is important to notice that poor teams have a little more than half the expected chances of reaching the World Series, once they get to the playoffs. So even if you assume low-tiers teams at this stage are good (they are in the playoffs after all), they have performed considerably worse than the rest. This is a finding in itself.

If we move to World Series, the situation gets even tougher for low-budget teams. Similarly to the league-win breakdown, rich and mid-tier teams have performed better than the average, but in this case, rich ones have done slightly better than mid-tiers. If we think about this, we would expect this result because two very good teams are facing each other — no matter how much they are playing their players. On the other hand, low-tiers ball clubs have fared badly in this situation, accomplishing only one World Series win (the aforementioned Marlins in 2003) in seven attempts. It looks that their chances are reduced by ~71%. Again, remember we are talking about good/great teams playing the World Series, but again and again they have failed to deliver.

So I would like to highlight the findings so far in this question:

1. Payroll matters in relation to reaching the playoffs as rich teams get there with approximately twice the frequency of mid-tiers and four times more than low-budget teams. Therefore money seems to be an important element at the beginning of the season.
2. Once the postseason starts, though, rich and average teams perform similarly both in the path to the World Series and in the Series itself.
3. Low-tier teams perform worse than expected as the season goes on, even under the assumption that they are good teams. Their probabilities of success go down from half what’s expected during the season (11% vs 23%) and in the first rounds of the playoffs (17% vs 31%) to one-third (14% vs 50%) in the World Series.
4. Therefore it looks like money matters when the postseason starts because top and mid-tier teams have done ‘equally’ well, but much better than low-tier teams. While further study needs to be undertaken, my hypothesis is that investing more than what would be needed to be in the top 34% of all teams (i.e. be a top-tier team) would not drive better results than mid-tier teams once in the postseason. Therefore any extra dollar spent beyond what it would take to be a top-tier team is not a dollar (arguably) efficiently spent.

Question 4: Are there big spenders? If so, who are they? Have they changed over the years?

If you are still reading, I have reached my objective.

To answer this question I have plotted the average versus the standard deviation of the z-score for each team.  I have also bucketed teams into four types of spenders e.g. high, mid-high, mid-low and low. The table below shows the number of seasons per team with their payroll labelled as high, medium and low tier. Please take a look at those:

Please remember low tier refers to the bottom 33% payroll total of all teams in a season, medium tier goes from 33% to 66% and top tier is the top 34%. The answer to our first sub-question seems relatively straightforward. As you can see, there are three teams (NYY, BOS and LAD) who have been significantly above the pack, in terms of average payroll. The Yankees have been a high-tier payroll team in 39 out of 40 seasons. The Red Sox and Dodgers have been in the top tier 33 and 28 times out of 40, respectively. These teams have big payrolls consistently and therefore are the truly big-market teams. You may argue that the Mets or Angels are big-market teams and you would not be entirely wrong. They are definitely wealthy but payroll comparison shows they have not been in the league’s top 34% payroll on at least 40% of the last 40 seasons.

I have also, of course, included the teams that I have classified as low spenders. These are the Pirates, Marlins, Twins, Rays and Nationals. The Rays have never been in the top tier, which is the lowest spender in the league followed by the Marlins — what is going on in Florida? You may argue that the Padres and/or the Expos are (were) low spenders and I would not try to persuade you to think otherwise. The line is thin but had to be drawn somewhere.

Another interesting insight is payroll variance. No team has been more consistent than the Cardinals or Rays. On the other side of the spectrum we have the Phillies and the Mariners. This is probably a reflection of how these organizations are run. Below there is a plot of accumulated payroll z-scores and win percentage (for the entire period 1976-2015). If you have been following baseball for a few years most of this resonates with you: The Cubs, Mariners, Rockies and Mets have historically been underperforming while the Cardinals, Braves, Reds and A’s usually find non-payroll-related ways to win.

With the best fit-line information (Expected W% = 0.0296*Payroll Z-score + 0.4994), I have calculated the expected winning percentage (read: what ‘should’ have happened) and compared it to what actually happened. This will quickly allow us to identify good performers over the 40-years period. In essence, in the table below I am highlighting which teams are furthest away from the dotted line in the graph above.

We have one last question to discuss in this post and it is whether deep-pocket teams have changed over time. I think by now you know the short answer to this is ‘yes, they have’ — however, the truth of the story lies in the details. I partly addressed this question with the standard deviation of the z-scores before, however I would like to share a view of how this picture has evolved by decades.

I sliced teams into four categories. First there are the downward spenders. It is interesting how some teams e.g. the Expos, Brewers, Reds and Pirates moved from mid-high payroll spenders to (very) low ones. It looks as if they re-shifted their spending priorities in the mid-80’s and have stuck with that strategy since. The second bucket (Swingers) is teams that have swung between high and low-payroll tiers, depending on how the wind blows. Teams such as the Indians, Phillies, Twins, Rockies and Tigers are here. The third group (Upward) is comprised of those teams who have progressively moved into the upper tier e.g. the Mariners and Nationals. These are big-city, relatively new franchises that have not had on-field success. Finally there is a group (Keepers) that have remained constant on payroll spending. These are the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, and Rays.

In summary, it looks like money matters since the relationship between payroll and wins is weak but statistically significant. However, the influence of payroll is not as big as we may originally have thought. Money definitely influences which teams go to the postseason i.e. postseason chances are directly proportional to payroll, but once a team is in the postseason, payroll predictive power goes down i.e. it does not pay off to over-invest in payroll (did you hear that Theo?). Thus there seems to be a diminishing returns curve during the season as the value of $1 extra in payroll changes depending on where you are in the curve. Ideally, a GM wants to spend just enough to get his/her team to the playoffs because, after that point, the field is more leveled, raising the question of whether more of those resources should be allocated to other areas e.g. manager, front office, or player development. I guess that’s part of another post.

Noah Syndergaard was absolutely brilliant in his first full season with the Mets in 2015. He logged an ERA of 3.24 and an FIP of 3.25 last season. Identical ERA and FIP generally means the defense that played behind Syndergaard did enough. (Rule of thumb: If a pitcher’s ERA is better than his FIP, the pitcher had a benefit of his defense while he was pitching. It is generally believed that this rule of thumb is more reliable with a larger sample number. On the other hand, if his ERA is worse than his FIP, his teammates were not helping him defensively with balls that were in play.)

I digressed a little bit. Let me get back to Syndergaard. According to his 2016 season FIP, he is even better than last season. His FIP through his first five starts of the season is a stunning 1.39. His 2016 ERA is 2.51, which deviates a lot from his FIP. The Mets do have a below-average defense, but it is way too early to suggest that the Mets defense is so horrible because of a one-run difference between his ERA and FIP. It is still early May. There are many opportunities for the Mets defense to make it up to him throughout the season. After just five starts in this season, Syndergaard’s fWAR of 1.5 is half of what he logged in the 2015 season, which was 3.1. His start has been that good.

He also had great command considering that he is a power pitcher, last year logging a fantastic 1.86 BB/9 in 150 innings. This season, he has a 1.67 BB/9. His K/9 in the 2016 season is 12.25 and that is more than 2 K/9 higher than last season.

Since the beginning of the 2015 season, there are only four pitchers with a BB% less than 5% and who logged at least 94 mph average fastball in that span. (Minimum 170 IP)

I considered just two parameters to find Syndergaard’s comparables and I think they’re reasonable comps. deGrom, Sale, and Scherzer are all top-tier pitchers that have won Cy Youngs or finished very high in the Cy Young ballot in the past. Here is the takeaway message: Syndergaard only had to pitch 176.2 innings at the MLB level to be in the company of deGrom, Sale, and Scherzer. And this young 2016 season is just his second full year. He can only get better because he is only 23 years old with the best fastball among starters. His fastball velocity in the last two seasons is best among starters (97.2 mph). And you certainly can’t forget his 95 mph slider against the Royals in the opening series. He has a very nasty secondary pitch as well. According to his FanGraphs profile page, he has relied on his fastball and slider about 75% of the time this season. This can make Syndergaard a very predictable pitcher to hit against, but his simple pitch selection did not prevent him from his dominant start to the 2016 season because batters have a hard time hitting it even when they know it’s coming.

Now I want to delve very deep into Noah’s advanced metrics so that I can figure out what he is doing better than last year. For starters, his average fastball velocity (both four-seam and two-seam) increased by about one mile between the 2015 and 2016 seasons, which only make things more complicated for the batters that have to face Syndergaard. Refer to the graph below:

While horizontal movement between the 15’ and 16’ seasons decreased (not shown in this article), I saw increased vertical movement on his fastballs:

Although this is based on a very small sample size, his fastball whiff rate in 2016 has increased by 3.3% compared to the 2015 season whiff rate. It is obvious to see positive change in whiff rate when both velocity and movement of the fastball increase substantially.

His 2016 season sinker whiff rate is down from last season, but the sinker is not a good strikeout pitch anyway; it is more of a groundball-inducing pitch. According to the figure below, he has been relying on his sinker more often this year to improve his groundball rate to 57%, up from 47% last year. (Mind you, you should monitor his GB% throughout this season to see if this is a real thing, but I won’t be surprised if his GB% will be sustained all season long. The combination of heavy usage, good movement, and high velocity can make this quite possible.)

If you see the pitch usage (four-seam and sinker only) above, his sinker usage is at 35% this year, which is 10% up from last season.

Noah Syndergaard is one of the most exciting pitchers to watch this year, so I wrote about him. Not only does he have a rare explosive 80-grade fastball that he can command very well, but he is also heavily relying on a heavy sinker of his to get many batters out with a groundball. That’s why I think he will be even better this year. While I compared him to Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Jacob deGrom, I think this will be the year for Syndergaard to compete for the NL Cy Young with Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta.

With the NFL Draft having been on, it’s hard for us baseball nerds not to get excited about the MLB draft that’s a little over four weeks away. As many of you know, it is almost impossible to predict an MLB draft. In the NFL, teams are drafting to fill current needs and expect most prospects to be immediate impacts. We know this not to be the case in baseball. To keep it simple, the MLB draft is an absolute crapshoot. But that does not mean that we can’t have fun with it.

Without further ado, with the first overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, the Philadelphia Phillies select:

1. LHP Jason Groome – Barnegat HS (NJ)

Before Brady Aiken was taken in 2014 by the Houston Astros, the last high-school pitcher taken first overall was Brien Taylor in 1991 by the New York Yankees. We all know how that ended up. However, as of right now, it would seem that Groome, who goes to school roughly 60 miles from Citizens Bank Park, is the consensus top prospect heading into the draft. At 6’6′ 220 pounds, Groome touches 96 mph, but sits 90-94 mph with his fastball. Groome could be a great addition to the Phillies already improved rotation, as he has the makings of a future ace. He has committed to play college baseball at Vanderbilt.

2. Cincinnati Reds – 3B Nick Senzel (Tennessee)

It would appear that Walt Jocketty and Dick Williams have been targeting MLB-ready players through offseason trades, acquiring players such as Scott Schebler, Jose Peraza, Rookie Davis, Caleb Cotham, and Eric Jagielo. They also have a history of taking college players in the first round such as Drew Stubbs (Texas), Yonder Alonso (Miami), and Mike Leake (Arizona State). As the best college bat in this draft class, Senzel seems like a perfect fit to go to the Reds. His all-fields approach at the plate should enable him to hit for both average and power at the next level. Look for Senzel to be a big piece to the Reds’ “quick rebuild.”

3. Atlanta Braves – OF Kyle Lewis (Mercer)

The Braves have not selected a college position player in over two decades. With a plethora of young pitching throughout their system, look for the Braves to break that trend. The Braves are also known to draft players out of their backyard, such as Brian McCann and Jason Heyward. In fact, many have referred to Kyle Lewis as a right-handed Jason Heyward without the defense. Many scouts believe he will end up in right field and that he could become a serious home-run threat in the league. Lewis will be the first ever player taken in the first round out of Mercer.

4. Colorado Rockies – LHP AJ Puk (Florida)

The search for an ace continues in Colorado. Three of their last five first-round picks have been used on college arms. If Puk happens to fall to them at 4, I would be very surprised if they passed up on him. At 6’7″ 230 pounds, Puk can touch 99 mph with his fastball. It will be interesting to see how his control and command translate to the next level. He could be the frontline starter that Colorado has been looking for in the past few drafts.

5. Milwaukee Brewers – RHP Riley Pint (St Thomas Aquinas HS – KS)

One of my favorite prospects in this draft is the Kansas high-school pitcher Riley Pint. At 6’4″ 210 pounds, Pint sits in the mid- to high 90s with his fastball and touched 102 mph this spring. He also features a plus curveball and changeup. His fastball is what fascinates me though. With his lower arm slot, his fastball has lots of movement. Here is where you will notice that I am a baseball nerd. When I first watched a clip of Pint, I immediately thought of White Sox prospect Tyler Danish. Obviously, Danish does not have Pint’s fastball, but you will understand my logic if you watch the video. With that said, Pint could be the best prep arm ever to come out of Kansas and is committed to play at LSU next year.

6. Oakland Athletics – OF Corey Ray (Louisville)

Everyone knows about Oakland’s love for college position players in the draft. In the past 14 years, their first-round pick has been a prep player only three times. He is currently slashing .318/.390/.597 with 11 homers and 47 RBIs. Ray is an above-average hitter with plus speed and tremendous athletic ability overall. He could bring a lot of value to a team playing center field at the next level.

7. Miami Marlins – OF Blake Rutherford (Chaminade College Prep – CA)

Rutherford is considered the best prep bat in the class. Due to being a 19-year-old senior, scouts have their concerns as the track record for older high-school players speaks for itself. However, that may mean quicker stints in the minor leagues. Rutherford is considered a five-tool player who will eventually end up in right field. He comes from the same school that produced Blue Jays OF Kevin Pillar and is committed to play college ball at UCLA.

8. San Diego Padres – SS Delvin Perez (International Baseball Academy – Puerto Rico)

We all know what happened to the last shortstop to come out of Puerto Rico. Before anyone becomes enraged, I am only kidding. I am not comparing Perez to Carlos Correa. However, Perez has his own uniqueness as a ball player. He is the definition of a “glove-first” shortstop, who has plenty of potential with the bat. Right now, he profiles as an Andrelton Simmons. If his bat develops, he will easily be a perennial All-Star. With his ceiling, it would be hard for AJ Preller to pass him up.

9. Detroit Tigers – RHP Dakota Hudson (Mississippi State)

For some reason, I feel like Hudson has Detroit Tigers written all over him. The Tigers have drafted their fair share of players from the SEC (James McCann and Jonathon Crawford). They also love their big-velocity pitchers, such as Beau Burrows. Hudson’s fastball touches 97 with some run and sink and also features a nasty high-80s slider with solid break. As of right now, Hudson has the look of a future frontline starter.

10. White Sox – OF Mickey Moniak (La Costa Canyon HS – CA)

The White Sox have emerged as one of the best teams in baseball through the first month of play. If they can keep this up, having a top-10 pick in the draft will enable them to beef up their farm system. The White Sox aren’t known for taking prep pitchers in the first round and the best available on the board here could be Moniak. This Southern California kid has committed to play at UCLA with fellow draftee Blake Rutherford. He has an advanced hit tool with a more contact-oriented swing, but lacks power at the moment. With his plus speed and defense, Moniak would be a safe pick at 10.

11. Seattle Mariners – RHP Connor Jones (UVA)

Before anyone says anything, I know the first person that comes to mind is Danny Hultzen. UVA pitchers also have an interesting track record in the major leagues. However, Seattle’s depleted farm system could use a win in this year’s draft. Jones is one of the safest picks at the top of this class. He has stepped in for Nathan Kirby as the Friday night starter and has shown the ability to lead the Cavalier’s staff. Jones throws a low- to mid 90s fastball with plus sink and a solid slider and changeup. This pick makes a lot of sense for Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners, even though I could also see them going after a bat to eliminate any risk with a pitcher.

12. Boston Red Sox – RHP Forrest Whitley (Alamo Heights HS – TX)

At this spot, with an already strong farm system, I expect the Red Sox to take the best available on the board. At 6’7″ 225 pounds, Whitley throws a 92-97 mph fastball with movement and has an above average curveball with good depth. Many believe he’s the best prep pitcher behind Riley Pint. He is committed to play at Florida State next year.

13. Tampa Bay Rays – RHP Ian Anderson (Shenendehowa HS – NY)

Last year, the Rays took a prep star (Garrett Whitley) from Upstate New York with the 13th overall pick. Right down the road from where Whitley went to school is an impressive prep pitcher named Ian Anderson. Looking at their impressive rotation of Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, and eventually Blake Snell, the Rays are getting the reputation of developing their pitchers. Mike Nikorak was a northeastern prep pitcher who slid into the first round last year to the Rockies. With a 6’3″ 170 pound projectable frame, Anderson throws his fastball 91-95 mph with good downhill angle. He is committed to play at Vanderbilt next year.

14. Cleveland Indians – OF Buddy Reed (Florida)

Cleveland has shown that it values upside earlier in the draft with picks such as Brady Aiken at 17th overall last year. Reed has above-average speed with above-average defensive skills, but his overall stock will be determined by the amount that he hits. At 6’4″ 185, he has a projectable build that should be able to stay in center field. His overall high ceiling will get him selected in the first round.

15. Minnesota Twins – LHP Joey Wentz (Shawnee Mission East HS – KS)

Wentz was originally being looked at as a first baseman as he blasted a 543ft shot at Great American Ballpark last summer. There is no question that his future as a pitcher looks more promising. With 6’5″ 210 pound frame, Wentz has a fastball that sits between 90-95 mph with a plus curveball and changeup. He has a clean delivery and athleticism to go along with his big frame. Wentz is committed to play at UVA next year.

16. Los Angeles Angels – LHP Braxton Garrett (Florence HS – AL)

With the current state of the Angels farm system, they are best off by taking the best available. They have a tendency to go with pitching at the top of their drafts. Garret is a 6’3″ 190 pound lefty prep star out of Alabama. Scouts claim he has one of the best curveballs in this class with a fastball that sits 90-94 mph and has late life. Many say that he has the ceiling of a future No. 2 starter. He is one of the many commitments to play at Vanderbilt next year.

17. Houston Astros – 3B Josh Lowe (Pope HS – GA)

The Astros’ farm system is loaded; therefore, they can afford to go with a high-ceiling pick. Lowe has raw power, as you see in that video, with his 6’4″ frame. With his plus speed and arm strength, he could play either third base or the outfield. If hitting does not work out, some scouts claim he’s the best prep pitcher to come out of Georgia since Zack Wheeler. Lowe can reach mid 90s with his fastball and is committed to play at Florida State next year.

18. New York Yankees – RHP Kevin Gowdy (Santa Barbara HS – CA)

The Yankees have been successful with their Southern California prospects and have also been targeting pitching in the top rounds. Gowdy comes from the same high school as former White Sox prospect Dylan Axelrod and Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs. At 6’4″ 170 pounds, Gowdy has a projectable frame with three above-average pitches (fastball, slider, change). His fastball sits 92-93 mph, but it is easy to imagine increased velocity in his future. Gowdy is committed to play at UCLA next year.

19. New York Mets – RHP Matt Manning (Sheldon HS – CA)

The Mets have accumulated tons of pitching in the past few years with one of the best, if not THE best, rotation in baseball right now. I could see them targeting a prep pitcher with tons of upside like Matt Manning, son of former NBA player Rich Manning. His spring season has been cut short due to a deep playoff run for basketball. At 6’6″ 185 pounds, Manning uses every inch of his tall frame throwing his fastball 96-97 mph. He is committed to play at Loyola Marymount next year.

20. Los Angeles Dodgers – RHP Cal Quantrill (Stanford)

Dodgers are known to target high upside early in the draft. Last year, they drafted injury-prone pitcher Walker Buehler from Vanderbilt and the struggling Kyle Funkhouser from Louisville. If it wasn’t for Tommy John last spring, Quantrill would have been a top-10 pick this year. He is the son of former big league reliever Paul Quantrill and has an advanced feel for pitching, which should enable him to move quickly through the minors. Quantrill has four pitches that could be major-league average. This is a high-risk, high-reward pick that I would not be surprised seeing the Dodgers take at 20th overall.

21. Toronto Blue Jays – C Zack Collins (Miami)

Collins is the definition of a “bat-first” player. He is destroying the baseball this year in the ACC with a walk total that is double his strikeout total. Collins seems to be a better fit in the AL where he could potentially DH and he has drawn some comparisons to Evan Gattis/Kyle Schwarber type. Scouts aren’t sure if he will stick behind the dish, but he has to potential to put up 20-plus homers annually.

22. Pittsburgh Pirates – OF Alex Kirillof (Plum HS – PA)

In 2004, the Pirates selected local prep star Neil Walker with the 11th overall pick. Walker has now departed via an offseason trade to the Mets for LHP Jon Niese. I wouldn’t be surprised if Huntington and the gang select local star Kirillof if he falls to them at 22. Kirillof has explosive bat speed and power from the left side of the plate and is projected to be a corner outfielder. He is committed to play at Liberty next year, but signability should not be an issue.

23. St. Louis Cardinals – RHP Jordan Sheffield (Vanderbilt)

Sheffield’s brother Justus was a first round pick of the Indians in 2014. Out of all the pitchers in this draft class, Sheffield may have the best chance of developing his three plus offerings. His fastball touches 98 mph and sits 94-96 mph. However, like many power pitchers, he comes with injury concerns after having Tommy John surgery in 2013. His size and explosive stuff draws comparisons to the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman, but it also leads to concerns about his durability as a starter. If anyone can develop Sheffield, it’s the model team of major-league baseball.

24. San Diego Padres – 3B Will Craig (Wake Forest)

This pick is for free agent Justin Upton signing with the Detroit Tigers. Due to pick a prep bat early on in the draft, I can see the Padres going with a college bat here. Preller has a love for high-ceiling talent and could look to add a power bat like Will Craig. Do you know when the last time a Wake Forest player was drafted in the first round? In 2008, Allan Dykstra was drafted 23rd overall by the SAN DIEGO PADRES. Am I on to something here? Probably not. At 6’3″ 235 pounds, Craig draws comparisons to Billy Butler. Stay with me here Padres fans, I don’t mean to scare you off that quickly. Craig has impressive bat speed with his right-handed swing and many see him having 20-plus homer seasons with high OBPs due to his command of the strike zone.

25. San Diego Padres – RHP Jared Horn (Vintage HS – CA)

This pick is for free agent Ian Kennedy signing with the Kansas City Royals. After taking a college and prep bat, the Padres could go after a talented prep pitcher. The 6’3″ Northern California prep pitcher may be one of the more underrated arms on the board. His fastball is consistently 94-96 mph and many scouts love his competitiveness on the mound (starting quarterback for high school team). He is committed to play at the University of California-Berkeley next year.

26. Chicago White Sox – OF Bryan Reynolds (Vanderbilt)

This pick is for free agent Jeff Samardzija signing with the San Francisco Giants. After taking a prep bat, the White Sox could target a safe college bat with three years of consistent performance. Reynolds is one of the more well-rounded players with solid speed and defense, but his below-average arm has left field written all over it. Reynolds will not kill you with any one particular tool, but he could be a solid average major-league performer.

27. Baltimore Orioles – RHP Robert Tyler (Georgia)

This pick is for free agent Wei-Yin Chen signing with the Miami Marlins. The Orioles need to start stockpiling on pitching and I wouldn’t be surprised if they targeted a college arm with this pick. Their current MLB rotation is below average and they have not done a great job of developing top prospects Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey. Tyler was previously drafted by the Orioles in 2013 in the 28th round out of high school. However, he would have gone in the top five rounds if he were signable. He has one of the best fastballs in this draft, which sits 92-95 mph as a starter. Tyler is tough to hit due to his steep downward plane, but some scouts see him ending up in a bullpen.

28. Washington Nationals – SS Nolan Jones (Holy Ghost Prep – PA)

This pick is for free agent Jordan Zimmermann signing with the Detroit Tigers. This year, there could be two prep bats out of Pennsylvania taken in the first round. Jones has good bat speed and raw power from the left side. Currently, he plays shortstop in high school, but many scouts feel that his 6’4″ frame will profile better at third. He is committed to play at UVA next year.

29. Washington Nationals – LHP Kyle Muller (Jesuit College Prep – TX)

This pick is for free agent Ian Desmond signing with the Texas Rangers. Texas prep pitcher, Kyle Muller, is from the same school that produced Pirates top prospect Josh Bell. While he is more impressive on the mound, Muller has also battled for the national high-school lead in homers. His fastball sits in the low 90s, but can touch 95 mph. Muller has one of the best bodies in the draft at 6’5″ 230 pounds and is committed to play at the University of Texas next year.

30. Texas Rangers – RHP Cody Sedlock (Illinois)

This pick is for free agent Yovani Gallardo signing with the Baltimore Orioles. In the last three drafts, the Rangers have used their top pick on a pitcher. Last year, the Twins took Illinois left hander Tyler Jay with the sixth overall pick. Sedlock has done very well this year in his transition to the rotation with 90 strikeouts and 24 walks in 11 starts. He has all the tools of a starter with four solid pitches, command of the strike zone, and the ability to generate ground balls. Sedlock’s best pitcher is his sinker that sits 91-93 mph.

31. New York Mets – 3B Drew Mendoza (Lake Minneola HS – FL)

This pick is for free agent Daniel Murphy signing with the Washington Nationals. If they go after a pitcher with their first pick, look for them to target a prep bat. At 6’4″ 195 pounds, he has a tremendous feel for hitting which should generate some power at the next level. With his great arm strength, he projects better as a third baseman. Mendoza is committed to play at Florida State next year.

32. Los Angeles Dodgers – OF William Benson (The Westminster School – GA)

This pick is for free agent Zack Greinke signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks. After taking a high-risk, high-upside college arm, look for them to roll the dice on a high-risk, high-ceiling prep bat in William Benson. Many scouts have referred to the Atlanta prep star as Jason Heyward 2.0. Both were high-school prospects in Atlanta, have similar builds, and tremendous athletes. Benson stands 6’6″ 220 and has tremendous bat speed which give him above-average power. At the next level, many project him to move from center to right field. Benson is committed to play at Duke next year.

33. St. Louis Cardinals – C Matt Thaiss (UVA)

This pick is for free agent John Lackey signing with the Chicago Cubs. After taking a college pitcher, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinals target a college or prep bat. At UVA, Thaiss has been consistent with the bat, but extremely raw behind the dish. Scouts are not sure if he will stick at catcher when he gets to the next level.

34. St. Louis Cardinals – OF Taylor Trammell (Mount Paran Christian School – GA)

This pick is for free agent Jason Heyward signing with the Chicago Cubs. At 6’2″ 195, the Cardinals would be getting an athlete to say the least with Taylor Trammell. He was the Georgia Class A Offensive Football Player of the Year after rushing for 2,479 yards and 36 touchdowns. When it comes to baseball, he is very raw offensively and defensively. As he is learning to recognize pitches and tap into his raw power, scouts give him a 70 grade for his speed. Trammell is committed to play at Georgia Tech next year.

There it is folks. That is my best or most educated guess on a mock draft about four weeks out. In the meantime, things can change. One of the pitchers in this group could go down with an injury or a prep star could announce that he will be attending school regardless of where he’s drafted. With that said, I hope you all enjoy this and have as much fun with this as I did.

Brandon Belt is one of the most polarizing players in baseball. Even among his own team’s fans, support for the Giants first baseman ranges from ecstatic enthusiasm to downright disdain.

Belt personifies the chasm between old-school and new-school baseball analysis. According to more traditional numbers, Belt leaves something to be desired (at least so far in his career).

He’s never knocked in more than 68 runs in a season; he’s never eclipsed 18 home runs. His career batting average is an unspectacular .273. Although his naysayers will admit that he’s sharp defensively, he’s never won a Gold Glove.

However, Belt excels in less traditional metrics. His career on-base percentage is a robust .350. He’s slugged .458 despite playing half his games in the expansive and cavernous AT&T Park. Despite not yet winning a Gold Glove, his defensive stats consistently rate at or near the top of the charts. Last year, according to the SABR Defensive Index (which uses data instead of the “eye test” to evaluate defense), Belt was the best first baseman in baseball.

To look closer at Belt’s offensive abilities, we must understand a particularly useful and telling stat. According to FanGraphs, weighted runs created plus (wRC+) “is a rate statistic that attempts to credit a hitter for the value of each outcome (single, double, etc.) rather than treating all hits or times on base equally, while also controlling for park effects and the current run environment. wRC+ is scaled so that league average is 100 and each year and every point above or below 100 is equal to one percentage point better or worse than league average.” That may seem like a mouthful, but it’s critically important to use stats like this in the business of modern baseball talent evaluation.

For his career, Belt’s wRC+ is 128, which, by the definition above, means that he’s been 28% better than the league-average Major League hitter. In some of Belt’s better seasons, he’s compiled elite wRC+ totals: 140 in 2013 and 135 in 2015, and he sits at 140 so far this season.

As the numbers show, Belt has been a very good player ever since he put on a Giants uniform, despite the harsh criticism he still receives from more traditionalist fans and analysts.

One of the biggest (and perhaps most legitimate) criticisms of Belt’s game is that he strikes out a lot. For his career, Belt has struck out in 24% of his plate appearances. While this is a pretty high total, it’s not like he’s the worst in the league, or even the worst among very good players.

Kris Bryant, last year’s unanimous National League Rookie of the Year, has a 29% career strikeout rate. Orioles slugger Chris Davis (whom many Giants fans on social media wanted the Giants to sign this off-season) strikes out 31% of the time. Tigers star outfielder J.D. Martinez racked up five wins above replacement last year, and he struck out 27% of the time.

The point is, even the biggest and most legitimate knocks against Belt can be argued against.

And wait a minute. This year, the criticism doesn’t even apply. Brandon Belt isn’t really striking out anymore. Through 92 plate appearances, he’s struck out just 14% of the time.

You may be thinking:

Sure, Belt’s strikeout rate is low so far this year, but he hasn’t even had 100 plate appearances. Surely this is a mirage caused by a small sample size.

In most cases, this is the correct point. However, according to FanGraphs, a hitter’s strikeout rate is actually the fastest element of his game to stabilize (i.e. not fall victim to small sample size). FanGraphs says that is takes just 60 plate appearances for a hitter’s strikeout rate to stabilize.

Let’s take a closer look at Belt’s 92 plate appearances to see how they differ from his career norm.

For his career, Belt has swung at 30% of pitches outside of the strike zone. This year, he’s only swung at 24% of such pitches.

For his career, Belt has made contact with 61% of pitches he’s swung at that are outside of the strike zone. This year, he’s made contact with 67% of such pitches.

For his career, Belt has made contact on 76% of his swings. This year, he’s made contact on 81% of his swings.

The biggest difference appears to be twofold: he’s chasing less and making more contact when he does chase.

One explanation could be that Belt has simply started the year with one of his patented hot streaks. He’s been known to have excellent months, and he’s been known to have miserable months. But even in some of Belt’s best months his strikeout rate has remained around his career average. In May 2015, Belt batted .339/.405/.670 in 121 PA. His strikeout rate for the month was 25%. In August 2015, Belt batted .312/.395/.560 in 124 PA. His strikeout rate for the month was 27%.

Belt has had a few months where his strikeout rate was down, however. He struck out just 11 times in 95 plate appearances (13%) in August 2012. His strikeout rate was 21% in May 2013 and 19% in June 2013, but then it ballooned up to 34% in July 2013. The following month, Belt hit .350/.421/.630 in 114 plate appearances and his strikeout rate was just 16%.

So we have seen some variance in Belt’s monthly strikeout rates, but 16% was the lowest strikeout rate he’s had in a month (min. 15 games played) since 2013. This year, with just two more games remaining in the month, Belt is poised to have one of his best ever months in terms of strikeout rate.

This is particularly interesting because April is the first month of the season. Sometimes hitters come into new seasons and introduce new and sustainable levels of production.

Belt may well be onto something, and he could have a year in which we see a sustained dip in strikeout rate. Or he may simply be having a rare month in which he doesn’t strike at least 20% of the time. Only time will tell, but the early season has been particularly intriguing and promising for Belt and his supporters. For now, at least, the critics are silent.

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1905 Boston Beaneaters 

OWAR: 30.1     OWS: 261     OPW%: .423     (65-89)

AWAR: 11.3       AWS: 152     APW%: .331   (51-103)

WARdiff: 18.8                        WSdiff: 109  

The “Original” 1905 Beaneaters placed seventh in the Senior Circuit, narrowly avoiding a last-place finish by a two-game margin over the Brooklyn Superbas. Yet the “Actual” Beaneaters underachieved when compared to the “Original” squad by 14 victories and an astonishing WSdiff of 109.

Charlie “Piano Legs” Hickman (.277/4/66) outplayed “Actuals” second-sacker Fred Raymer (.211/0/31). Hall of Fame third baseman Jimmy Collins (.276/4/65) posted superior results for the “Originals” compared to “Fighting” Harry Wolverton (.225/2/55). Dan “Cap” McGann (.299/5/75) slashed 14 triples and pilfered 22 bases while fellow first baseman Fred Tenney (.288/0/28) lagged in the power department. Ernie Courtney (.275/2/77) provided additional thump and established career-highs in most of the major offensive categories.

Kid Nichols rates ninth among pitchers according to Bill James in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract.” “Original” Beaneaters teammates listed in the “NBJHBA” top 100 rankings include Collins (17^th-3B), Chick Stahl (51^st-CF), Bobby Lowe (56^th-2B), Tenney (70^th-1B), Hickman (80^th-1B), Vic Willis (84^th-P) and McGann (92^nd-1B).

Original 1905 Beaneaters                               Actual 1905 Beaneaters

Claimed by the “Original” and “Actual” Beaneaters, Irv Young’s inaugural season encompassed 20 victories against 21 defeats, a 2.90 ERA and League-bests in complete games (41) and innings pitched (378). In a similar fashion Vic Willis was tagged with 29 losses despite a respectable 3.21 ERA. Togie Pittinger furnished a record of 23-14 with a 3.09 ERA for the “Originals” and Kid Nichols contributed 11 wins and a 3.12 ERA. Chick Fraser (14-21, 3.28) hurled 35 complete games in 37 starts for the “Actuals”.

  Original 1905 Beaneaters                          Actual 1905 Beaneaters

Notable Transactions

Dan McGann

September 22, 1897: Purchased with Butts Wagner, Bob McHale and Cooney Snyder by the Washington Senators from Toronto (Eastern) for $8,500.

December 10, 1897: Traded by the Washington Senators with Gene DeMontreville and Doc McJames to the Baltimore Orioles for Doc Amole, Jack Doyle and Heinie Reitz.

March 11, 1899: Assigned to the Brooklyn Superbas by the Baltimore Orioles.

July 14, 1899: Traded by the Brooklyn Superbas with Aleck Smith to the Washington Senators for Deacon McGuire.

March 9, 1900: Purchased by the St. Louis Cardinals from the Washington Senators for $5,000.

Before 1902 Season: Jumped from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Baltimore Orioles.

July 17, 1902: Released by the Baltimore Orioles. (Date given is approximate. Exact date is uncertain.)

July 17, 1902: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Giants. (Date given is approximate. Exact date is uncertain.)

Charlie Hickman

March 22, 1900: Purchased by the New York Giants from the Boston Beaneaters.

December 16, 1901: Jumped from the New York Giants to the Boston Americans.

June 3, 1902: Purchased by the Cleveland Bronchos from the Boston Americans.

August 7, 1904: Traded by the Cleveland Naps to the Detroit Tigers for Charlie Carr.

July 6, 1905: Purchased by the Washington Senators from the Detroit Tigers.

Jimmy Collins

February 11, 1901: Jumped from the Boston Beaneaters to the Boston Americans.

Ernie Courtney

August, 1902: Released by the Boston Beaneaters.

August 13, 1902: Signed as a Free Agent with the Baltimore Orioles. (Date given is approximate. Exact date is uncertain.)

June 10, 1903: Traded by the New York Highlanders with Herman Long to the Detroit Tigers for Kid Elberfeld.

October, 1903: Traded by the Detroit Tigers with Rube Kisinger, Sport McAllister and either Yeager or Lush to Buffalo (Eastern) for Cy Ferry and Matty McIntyre.

Chick Stahl

March 4, 1901: Jumped from the Boston Beaneaters to the Boston Americans.

Honorable Mention

The 1977 Atlanta Braves 

OWAR: 40.5     OWS: 283     OPW%: .470     (76-86)

AWAR: 19.9     AWS: 182     APW%: .377   (61-101)

WARdiff: 20.6                        WSdiff: 101  

The “Original” 1977 Braves featured Mickey Rivers, who supplied a .326 BA and registered career-highs with 12 four-baggers and 69 ribbies. “Mick the Quick” slumped in the stolen base department, succeeding on only 22 of 36 attempts after averaging 48 steals in three preceding campaigns. Dusty Baker crushed 30 round-trippers and plated 86 baserunners. Bill “Weaser” Robinson (.304/26/104) produced personal-bests in the Triple Crown categories. “The Roadrunner”, Ralph Garr, fashioned a .300 BA and socked 29 doubles. Ron Reed delivered 7 wins, 15 saves and a 2.75 ERA, primarily as a late-inning reliever. Phil “Knucksie” Niekro’s 16-20 record, 330.1 innings pitched and League-high 262 strikeouts are tallied for the “Original” and “Actual” Braves. Jeff Burroughs paced the “Actuals” with 41 jacks and 114 ribbies.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1908 Cardinals

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive