Archive for May, 2015

MLB Franchise Four: AL Central

Major League Baseball has a campaign asking fans to vote for the four “most impactful” players in their team’s history, with the winners being announced at the 2015 All-Star Game in Cincinnati. A panel of experts created an eight-man ballot for each team. This panel consists of MLB’s Official Historian John Thorn and representatives from MLB’s official statistician (the Elias Sports Bureau), MLB.com, MLB Network, and the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

“Most impactful” is open to interpretation, which makes this an interesting exercise. It isn’t “best” or “most famous” or “most popular”, but “most impactful.” I decided to look at the eight players on the ballot for each franchise and where they rank in FanGraphs WAR during their time with that franchise.

For each franchise, I’ve listed their top 10 in FanGraphs WAR along with any players who are on the ballot who are below the top 10. The players in BOLD are those who are on the ballot and the years listed are the years in which they played for that team.

 

Cleveland Indians (1901-2015)

 

(1) Nap Lajoie 74.9 WAR (1902-1914)

(2) Tris Speaker 72.6 WAR (1916-1926)

(3) Lou Boudreau 63.1 WAR (1938-1950)

(4) Bob Feller 62.6 WAR (1936-1941, 1945-1956)

(5) Earl Averill 47.7 WAR (1929-1939)

(6) Mel Harder 47.6 WAR

(7) Jim Thome 46.3 WAR (1991-2002, 2011)

(8) Sam McDowell 45.6 WAR

(9) Larry Doby 45.0 WAR (1947-1955, 1958)

(10) Stan Coveleski 43.7 WAR

(31) Omar Vizquel 27.6 WAR (1994-2004)

 

On the ballot: All but two players on the ballot for Cleveland had their careers end before 1960. This is a ballot for an older generation and no one goes back farther than Nap Lajoie, whose time with the Indians ended more than 100 years ago. From 1902 to 1914, he led the league in hitting four times and finished with a .339 career average with the team. In fact, he was so good the team was known as the Cleveland Naps from 1903 to 1914.

Tris Speaker started his career with the Boston Red Sox, then joined the Indians in 1916 at the age of 28 and immediately led the AL in hitting with a .386 batting average. He also led the league in on-base percentage (.470) and slugging percentage (.502). He was well known for his defensive abilities in addition to his strong bat and averaged 6.6 WAR per season with the Indians.

Lou Boudreau was the player-manager and MVP of the 1948 Indians, the last Cleveland team to win a World Series. Bob Feller was also on that 1948 squad. Feller pitched 62 innings as a 17-year-old with the 1936 Cleveland Indians. From 1938 to 1941, Feller was a four-time All-Star and averaged 23 wins and 309 innings per season. He then missed three-and-a-half seasons to military service, which very likely prevented him from winning 300 games in his career (he had 266). He was back in the Indians’ rotation full-time in 1946 and pitched 371 1/3 innings with 348 strikeouts and a 2.18 ERA. He was worth 10 WAR that season. Feller was visible after his playing career ended and much-loved in Cleveland with frequent appearances at memorabilia conventions.

Earl Averill played for the Indians from 1929 to 1939. The team never finished higher than third during his tenure, but he was an All-Star for six straight years in his 11 years with the team.

I’ve always felt Larry Doby should be honored right along with Jackie Robinson on April 15th each year. Jackie Robinson was the first African-American to play in the modern major leagues when he debuted with the Dodgers on April 15, 1947, but it gets forgotten that Larry Doby debuted with the Indians less than three months later and dealt with the same racist attitudes and actions that Jackie Robinson did. Doby was just a part-time player his first year with the Indians but soon became a perennial All-star with the team.

Jim Thome and Omar Vizquel are the only two players on the ballot who played for the team in the last 50 years. They were on the very good Cleveland teams of the mid 1990s that made the playoffs five straight years and six times in seven years, including two losing World Series appearances.

Notable ballot snub: Kenny Lofton is 11th on the all-time WAR list for the Indians and was an under-appreciated part of those good Cleveland teams in the mid-1990s (except for 1997, when he was with Atlanta). He’s 20 spots higher than Omar Vizquel with almost 16 more WAR than Vizquel had with the team, but did not get a spot on the eight-man ballot.

My Franchise Four: Nap Lajoie, Lou Boudreau, Bob Feller, Jim Thome

 

Kansas City Royals (1969-2015)

 

(1) George Brett 84.6 WAR (1973-1993)

(2) Amos Otis 42.0 WAR (1970-1983)

(3) Kevin Appier 41.8 WAR

(4) Mark Gubicza 40.1 WAR

(5) Bret Saberhagen 38.5 WAR (1984-1991)

(6) Willie Wilson 35.2 WAR (1976-1990)

(7) Dennis Leonard 34.5 WAR

(8) Paul Splittorff 33.2 WAR

(9) Frank White 31.1 WAR (1973-1990)

(10) Hal McRae 27.6 WAR (1973-1987)

(11) Alex Gordon 27.0 WAR (2007-2015)

(25) Dan Quisenberry 14.4 WAR (1979-1988)

 

On the ballot: Some players should be automatic Franchise Four players for the team they played with. One of those players is George Brett with the Kansas City Royals. He played 21 years with the team, has almost twice the WAR of the next-highest player, and was with the team during the most successful years of the franchise, including seven of the eight years in team history that the Royals made the post-season. The gap between Brett and Amos Otis is the fourth highest for any top two players on their team’s all-time WAR leaderboard. Brett was a 13-time All-Star for the Royals and won the AL MVP Award in 1980 when he hit .390/.454/.664. He had over 3000 hits and 1500 RBI in his career. His postseason numbers are even more impressive than his regular season numbers: .337/.397/.627. Brett is as automatic as can be for a Franchise Four candidate.

Willie Wilson, Frank White, and Hal McRae were teammates of Brett during all seven years the team made the playoffs from 1976 to 1985, while Amos Otis was there for the first five of those post-season years. Wilson was the leadoff hitter who hit .294/.331/.387 with an average of 51 steals over the ten years of his prime from 1979 to 1988. Frank White won six consecutive Gold Gloves from 1977 to 1982. Hal McRae was a two-time All-Star who hit .293/.356/.458 with the Royals in his career. Amos Otis provided strong defense in center field, was a five-time All-Star, and won three Gold Gloves.

The two pitchers on the ballot are Dan Quisenberry and Bret Saberhagen. Quisenberry came aboard in 1979 and led the AL in saves five times in six years in the early 1980s and finished in the top five in AL Cy Young voting five times. He was known for his submarine pitching and quirky sayings (“I found a deliver in my flaw”) and was one of the most popular players on the team in the early 1980s. Bret Saberhagen showed up in 1984, then was the AL Cy Young winner on the 1985 World Series Champion Kansas City Royals. He won two games against the Cardinals and was named World Series MVP.

Alex Gordon is the only current player on the ballot. He has nearly the same WAR as Hal McRae in their respective time with the Royals but he doesn’t have the multiple playoff series that so many of the guys on the ballot have.

Notable snubs: There isn’t necessarily a snub here because all of the players on the ballot have either quality play or a good narrative behind their selection, or both, but Kevin Appier and Mark Gubicza provided more value to the Royals than six of the players who made the ballot.

My Franchise Four: George Brett, Amos Otis, Bret Saberhagen, Willie Wilson

 

Detroit Tigers (1901-2015)

 

(1) Ty Cobb 143.4 WAR (1905-1926)

(2) Al Kaline  88.9 WAR (1953-1974)

(3) Charlie Gehringer 78.6 WAR (1924-1942)

(4) Lou Whitaker 68.1 WAR

(5) Harry Heilmann 64.4 WAR

(6)Alan Trammel 63.7 WAR (1977-1996)

(7) Mickey Lolich 62.0 WAR

(8) Hal Newhouser 60.4 WAR

(9) Sam Crawford 60.1 WAR (1903-1917)

(10) Hank Greenberg 57.9 WAR (1930, 1933-1941, 1945-1947)

(16) Justin Verlander 43.5 WAR (2005-2014)

(18) Miguel Cabrera 39.9 WAR (2008-2015)

 

 On the ballot: There are some players who are “no-doubters” when it comes to this Franchise Four exercise. George Brett is one for the Royals. For the Tigers, I believe there are three—Ty Cobb, Al Kaline, and Charlie Gehringer. Not only do all three players sit atop the Tigers’ WAR leaderboard, they all have long career with the team. Al Kaline and Charlie Gehringer played their entire careers in Detroit, while Cobb played his final two seasons with the Philadelphia Athletics, but is deeply associated with the Tigers in the early part of the 20th century.

Ty Cobb is ranked fourth all-time in FanGraphs WAR, with 149.3, just 0.6 behind Willie Mays. He led the league in hitting 12 times in 13 years from 1907 to 1919 and had a .377 batting average during this stretch. He also led the league in on-base percentage seven times and slugging percentage eight times. He had three years with more than 10 WAR, with 1917 being his best, at 11.5 WAR, when he hit .383/.444/.570 (200 wRC+). The 54.5 WAR gap between Cobb and Al Kaline is the largest gap between any top-ranked player over the second-best player of any franchise in baseball.

In his 20-year career with the Tigers, Al Kaline only reached the postseason twice, but this included the 1968 season when the Tigers won their first World Series in 23 years. Even though he had only played 102 games during the 1968 regular season, Kaline played all seven games of the 1968 World Series and hit .379/.400/.655. At his best, Kaline was an All-Star every year from 1955 to 1967 and won 10 Gold Gloves for his defense in right field.

Charlie Gehringer spent 19 years with the Tigers and saw postseason action three times, including a World Series title in 1935. In his prime, Gehringer rarely missed a game and hit for a high average with a good on-base percentage while playing strong defense at second base. His career batting line is .320/.404/.480.

Beyond those three it becomes difficult to pick a fourth for the Tigers. Alan Trammel is another Tiger player who never left Detroit, and he won a World Series title in 1984. Hank Greenberg played all but one of his 13 seasons in the big leagues with the Tigers and was part of the 1935 World Series titlists. Sam Crawford was a big part of three straight World Series teams for the Tigers from 1907 to 1909.

The contemporary Tigers on the ballot, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, are pretty far down the list of WAR leaders for this franchise but will add to their totals in the years to come. Current voters might be tempted to vote for one or both of them, but they don’t really compare with the players above them on the Tigers’ ballot just yet.

Notable snub: Like Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker is criminally underrated. He ranks just below Grich on the all-time WAR leaderboard for second basemen and, like Grich, was “one-and-done” in Hall of Fame balloting (2.9% in 2001). He’s fourth all-time among Tigers’ players in WAR, yet is not on the ballot, while his longtime double-play partner, Alan Trammel, is on the ballot.

My Franchise Four: Ty Cobb, Al Kaline, Charlie Gehringer, Alan Trammell

 

Minnesota Twins (1901-2015)

 

(1) Walter Johnson 117.9 WAR (1907-1927)

(2) Harmon Killebrew 66.3 WAR (1954-1974)

(3) Rod Carew 56.9 WAR (1967-1978)

(4) Bert Blyleven 55.8 WAR (1970-1976, 1985-1988)

(5) Jim Kaat 53.3 WAR (1959-1973)

(6) Sam Rice 50.3 WAR

(7) Camilo Pascual 48.1 WAR

(8) Joe Judge 45.6 WAR

(9) Kirby Puckett 44.9 WAR (1984-1995)

(10) Joe Mauer 44.8 WAR (2004-2015)

(11) Goose Goslin 42.2 WAR

(12) Tony Oliva 40.7 WAR (1962-1976)

 

On the ballot: It’s definitely strange to see Walter Johnson on top of the Twins’ WAR leaderboard because he, of course, played for the Washington Senators long before the team moved to Minnesota before the 1961 season. Because he never wore a Twins jersey, it will be interesting to see if the voting fans consider him a Franchise Four player. Johnson is fourth in career FanGraphs WAR, just behind Greg Maddux and ahead of Randy Johnson.

Harmon Killebrew was a Washington Senator for the first seven years of his career but then played another fourteen years as a Twin before one final year with the Royals. Killebrew led the American League in home runs five times as a Twin, including three years in a row when he hit 48, 45, and 49 bombs from 1962 to 1964.

Rod Carew led the AL in hitting seven times as a member of the Twins, including a stretch where he led the league in hitting six times in seven years. He also led the league in on-base percentage four times in five years.

Bert Blyleven had two stints with the Twins during his playing career and is third in wins all-time for the franchise. He’s also been an announcer for the team since 1996 (“Circle me, Bert!”) and was recently elected to the Hall of Fame. A teammate of Blyleven for four years in the early 1970s, Jim Kaat won the second-most games in Twins’ history. He played 15 of his 25 years with the team.

Kirby Puckett was a roly-poly fan favorite in the Metrodome through the last half of the 1980s and first half of the 90s. He was an All-Star in each of the last 10 years of his career and helped the Twins win two World Series Championships before glaucoma caused him to lose vision in his right eye, which ended his career. He hit .314/.379/.515 (123 wRC+) in his final year with the team.

Joe Mauer has played the first 12 years of his career with the Twins and is signed through 2018. He has three batting titles and an MVP award.

Finally, Tony Oliva was a Twins’ All-Star from 1964 to 1971 and led the league in hits five times.

Notable snubs: None.

My Franchise Four: Walter Johnson, Harmon Killebrew, Bert Blyleven, Kirby Puckett

 

Chicago White Sox (1901-2015)

 

(1) Luke Appling 72.7 WAR (1930-1943, 1945-1950)

(2) Frank Thomas 68.1 WAR (1990-2005)

(3) Eddie Collins 64.6 WAR (1915-1926)

(4) Red Faber 54.7 WAR

(5) Ted Lyons 54.6 WAR

(6) Billy Pierce 51.0 WAR

(7) Ed Walsh 49.2 WAR

(8) Nellie Fox 43.8 WAR (1950-1963)

(9) Minnie Minoso 41.8 WAR (1951-1957, 1960-1961, 1964, 1976, 1980)

(10) Mark Buehrle 40.1 WAR

(17) Luis Aparicio 32.0 WAR (1956-1962, 1968-1970)

(26) Harold Baines 24.5 WAR (1980-1989, 1996-1997, 2000-2001)

(28) Paul Konerko 23.6 WAR (1999-2014)

 

On the ballot: Luke Appling is the White Sox franchise leader in WAR, was named by the BBWAA as the greatest player in the history of the White Sox in 1970, hit .388/.474/.508 in 1936 and, to top it all off, hit a home run off Warren Spahn in the 1982 Old-Timer’s Game at the age of 75. Put that man on the White Sox Franchise Four, stat!

Frank Thomas had eight seasons with five or more WAR as a member of the White Sox and hit .307/.427/.568 with the team in his career. He led the league in on-base percentage four times in seven years from 1991 to 1997 and won back-to-back AL MVP Awards in 1993 and 1994.

Eddie Collins played the first half of his career with the Philadelphia Athletics and the second half of his career with the Chicago White Sox. As a member of the White Sox, Collins won the 1917 World Series and was a member of the 1919 World Series team that lost to the Cincinnati Reds in the “Black Sox” scandal that saw eight teammates, including Shoeless Joe Jackson, banned from baseball for life by the commissioner. Collins, of course, was not part of the “eight men out.”

Nellie Fox, Minnie Minoso, and Luis Aparacio were White Sox teammates in the 1950s and early 1960s. Fox was a 12-time All-Star and won the 1959 AL MVP award when the White Sox made the World Series. Like Fox, Luis Aparacio was another big part of the 1959 World Series team known as the “Go-Go Sox” because of their propensity to steal bases. Aparacio led the AL that year with 56 steals. Minnie Minoso was a four-time All-Star in nine seasons with the Sox. After his playing career ended he lived in Chicago for many years and represented the franchise as “Mr. White Sox” well into this century.

Harold Baines was a White Sox icon in the 1980s. In the middle of the 1989 season, the White Sox made a much-derided trade with the Rangers that saw Baines leave the team. This would become known as the “white flag” trade. In a bizarre twist, the White Sox retired Baines’ #3 about a month later, which is rare for an active player. Baines would go on to play another twelve seasons and would have his number unretired in two different stints with the team later in his career.

Paul Konerko is pretty far down on the White Sox WAR leaderboard but was part of the last White Sox team to win the World Series back in 2005 and was the MVP of the ALCS that year.

Notable snub: Among contemporary players, I would argue Mark Buehrle is a more deserving candidate for the ballot than Paul Konerko. Buehrle has 40.1 WAR as a White Sox player compared to 23.6 for Konerko and both were on the 2005 World Series championship team. Buehrle also has one of the two perfect games thrown by a White Sox pitcher.

My Franchise Four: Luke Appling, Frank Thomas, Nellie Fox, Minnie Minoso


MLB Franchise Four: AL West

Major League Baseball has a campaign asking fans to vote for the four “most impactful” players in their team’s history, with the winners being announced at the 2015 All-Star Game in Cincinnati. A panel of experts created an eight-man ballot for each team. This panel consists of MLB’s Official Historian John Thorn and representatives from MLB’s official statistician (the Elias Sports Bureau), MLB.com, MLB Network, and the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

“Most impactful” is open to interpretation, which makes this an interesting exercise. It isn’t “best” or “most famous” or “most popular”, but “most impactful.” I decided to look at the eight players on the ballot for each franchise and where they rank in FanGraphs WAR during their time with that franchise.

For each franchise, I’ve listed their top 10 in FanGraphs WAR along with any players who are on the ballot who are below the top 10. The players in BOLD are those who are on the ballot and the years listed are the years in which they played for that team.

 

Los Angeles Angels (1961-2015)

(1) Nolan Ryan, 47.7 WAR (1972-1979)

(2) Chuck Finley, 44.7 WAR (1986-1999)

(3) Jim Fregosi, 42.6 WAR (1961-1971)

(4) Brian Downing, 36.5 WAR (1978-1990)

(5) Bobby Grich, 35.6 WAR

(6) Tim Salmon, 35.5 WAR (1992-2004, 2006)

(7) Mike Witt, 33.4 WAR

(8) Frank Tanana, 33.2 WAR

(9) Jered Weaver, 32.5 WAR

(10) Mike Trout, 30.3 WAR (2011-2015)

(13) Garret Anderson, 26.2 WAR (1994-2008)

(19) Vladimir Guerrero, 20.2 WAR (2004-2009)

 

On the ballot: Nolan Ryan played 27 years in the major leagues and eight of those years were with the Angels, during which he averaged almost six WAR per season and over 300 strikeouts per season. He was an All-Star five times with the Angels and is their team leader in career WAR. Ryan is also on the ballot for the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, for whom he ranks 8th and 17th in WAR, respectively. He seems like a no-doubter for the Angels.

The number two player in career WAR for the Angels is Chuck Finley. While Ryan’s 47.7 WAR for the Angels came in just eight years with the team, it took Finley 14 years to accumulate 44.7 WAR, an average of 3.2 WAR per season. Finley’s best year was in 1993 when he was worth 5 WAR. Along with Ryan and Finley, Jim Fregosi is the only other Angels player with more than 40 WAR with the team, but his career was so long ago that he may not resonate with the voting fans like more recent players such as Tim Salmon, or Garret Anderson, who were teammates on the Angels in the late 1990s and early 2000s. They were both part of the Angels’ 2002 World Series championship team.

Brian Downing is the ultimate hipster—he was down with OBP before it became popular. He was also one of the first players to seriously embrace weight training and one of very few players who wore glasses while playing in the major leagues. He even had those tinted lenses that only the coolest dudes can pull off.

Even though he’s just in his fifth year in the big leagues, Mike Trout should get strong consideration for a spot on the Angels Franchise Four. In his three full seasons he averaged 9.6 WAR per season and had a good case to be AL MVP all three years (he won it last year and finished second the previous two years). He’s signed through 2020 and could replace Nolan Ryan at the top of the Angels’ WAR leaderboard within two or three years.

Finally, Vladimir Guerrero is the least-deserving player on the ballot based on career WAR with the Angels, as he only played six seasons with the team and had his three best seasons with the Expos earlier in his career. In his favor, he did win the 2004 AL MVP Award with the Angels and was a four-time All-Star with the team.

Notable snubs: Poor Bobby Grich. He got no love from Hall of Fame voters (just 2.6% of the vote in his only year on the ballot in 1992) despite being eighth all-time in WAR among second baseman (ahead of Hall of Famers Craig Biggio, Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg, and others). Here, once again, he gets no love in this Franchise Four activity, not even a place on the ballot. Troy Glaus is pretty far down on the Angels’ all-time WAR list (18th place, with 20.7 WAR), but I associate him more strongly with the Angels than I do Vladimir Guerrero.

My Franchise Four: Nolan Ryan, Mike Trout, Tim Salmon, Brian Downing

 

Houston Astros (1962-2015)

(1) Jeff Bagwell, 80.2 WAR (1991-2005)

(2) Craig Biggio, 65.8 WAR (1988-2007)

(3) Lance Berkman, 51.5 WAR (1999-2010)

(4) Jose Cruz, 47.8 WAR (1975-1987)

(5) Cesar Cedeno, 46.6 WAR

(6) Roy Oswalt, 46.3 WAR

(7) Jimmy Wynn, 38.7 WAR (1963-1973)

(8) Nolan Ryan, 36.4 WAR (1980-1988)

(9) J.R. Richard, 32.2 WAR (1971-1980)

(10) Larry Dierker, 31.8 WAR

(16) Mike Scott, 26.1 WAR (1983-1991) 

 

On the ballot: Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio are easy picks here and it’s hard to think of the two “Killer Bs” without the third “B”, Lance Berkman.

Bagwell played his entire 15 year career with the Astros and finished with 449 career homers and a .297/.408/.540 batting line. He was the 1991 NL Rookie of the Year and the NL MVP for the strike-shortened 1994 season in which he had 104 runs scored, 39 homers, and 116 RBI in just 110 games. He hit .368 that year and had a chance at 50 homers and 150 RBI if not for the labor dispute.

Craig Biggio was also an Astros’ lifer. He had a tremendous 1997 season worth 9.3 WAR when he hit .309/.415/.501 with good defense at second base. He had over 3000 hits in his career and led the league in getting hit by pitches five times.

Lance Berkman played the first 12 years of his career in Houston, then played for three other teams at the end of his career. His best days were with the Astros, though. He had six seasons with 6 or more WAR, including a 7.7 WAR season in 2008 when he hit .312/.420/.567 with 29 homers, 114 runs, 106 RBI, and 18 steals.

For a generation of fans in Houston, Jose Cruz WAS the Houston Astros. I don’t think you can have a Franchise Four without Jose Cruz on the Astros. His signature high front leg lift and those colorful uniforms of the 1970s just can’t be forgotten.

A player from the early years in Houston, “They Toy Cannon” Jimmy Winn, was able to hit for great power in the old Astrodome, a very tough park for hitters. He also posted very good on-base percentages when getting on base wasn’t as valued as it is today. He had six seasons with more than 100 walks.

Nolan Ryan spent more years with the Astros than he did with any other team during his long career and was on three Astros playoff teams in the 1980s. His 1987 season was very bizarre. He led the league in ERA at 2.76 and strikeouts with 270 but had a win-loss record of 8-16.

Sadly, J.R. Richard’s career was cut short when he suffered a stroke before a game in 1980. Richard was 30 years old at the time and was coming off a 1979 season during which he struck out 313 batters and finished third in the NL Cy Young voting. When he suffered the stroke in 1980, he was 10-4 with 1.90 ERA. He never again pitched in the major leagues.

The lowest ranking guy on the ballot is Mike Scott, who was the NL Cy Young winner in 1986, then was 2-0 with 2 complete games and a 0.50 ERA against the New York Mets in the NLCS. He was very good that year (8.6 WAR) and good again in 1987 (5.3 WAR), but his overall body of work with the Astros doesn’t compare to the others on the ballot.

Notable snubs: As good as Mike Scott was in 1986, his career contributions to the Houston Astros don’t stand up to what Roy Oswalt did during his career and I’m surprised that Oswalt didn’t make the ballot. Also, Cesar Cedeno was an All-Star four times in a five-year stretch for the Astros from 1972 to 1976.

My Franchise Four: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Jose Cruz, Lance Berkman

 

Oakland Athletics (1901-2015)

(1) Rickey Henderson, 68.6 WAR (1979-1984, 1989-1995, 1998)

(2) Jimmie Foxx, 64.6 WAR (1925-1935)

(3) Eddie Plank, 57.8 WAR

(4) Eddie Collins, 55.9 WAR

(5) Lefty Grove, 54.3 WAR (1925-1933)

(6) Al Simmons, 51.6 WAR (1924-1932, 1940-1941, 1944)

(7) Sal Bando, 47.5 WAR

(8) Reggie Jackson, 45.2 WAR (1967-1975, 1987)

(9) Mark McGwire, 44.4 WAR

(10) Bob Johnson, 44.3 WAR

(26) Catfish Hunter, 27.2 WAR (1965-1974)

(45) Dennis Eckersley, 19.5 WAR (1987-1995)

(57) Rollie Fingers, 15.8 WAR (1968-1976)

 

On the ballot: The players on the ballot for the Athletics go as far back as Al Simmons to as recent as Rickey Henderson and Dennis Eckersley. Henderson last played for the A’s in 1998, so there’s a lack of very recent players for Athletics’ fans to choose from. This makes for a difficult ballot. Also, all eight players on the ballot had success with other teams along with their stints with the A’s.

I think Rickey Henderson is obvious. He’s the greatest leadoff hitter of all-time and had his most famous seasons with the A’s, like in 1982 when he stole a single-season record 130 bases. Henderson played 14 seasons for Oakland and led the league in steals eight times while with the team. He was also very good at getting on base and hit for surprising power for a leadoff hitter. He came up with the A’s at the young age of 20 in 1979 and played a little more than a half season, then averaged 6.6 WAR per season over the next five years. After spending 4 ½ seasons with the Yankees, Henderson rejoined the A’s in 1989 and had his best season in 1990 when he hit .325/.439/.577 with 119 runs, 28 homers, and 65 steals, good for 10.2 WAR. In his career, Henderson had over 3000 career hits, 2000 career walks, and a .401 lifetime on-base percentage.

Jimmie Foxx and Lefty Grove were both very good with the Athletics but also had good years with the Red Sox. They were teammates on the great A’s teams from 1929 to 1931 that went to three straight World Series and won two of them. Al Simmons was also part of those great A’s teams and had his best years with the Philadelphia Athletics but also played eight years with other teams.

Reggie Jackson was the “straw that stirs the drink” with the New York Yankees, after being part of three straight championship teams in Oakland in the early 1970s. He played more than twice as many games with the A’s as he did with the Yankees but it was his time in New York that earned him the nickname “Mr. October.” Still, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Reggie had five seasons with the A’s that were worth 5.7 or more WAR.

Catfish Hunter was also well-known for his play with the Yankees after being one of the first big free agent signings before the 1975 season, but he was much more successful (and healthy) with the A’s.

The two Athletics’ relievers on the ballot, Dennis Eckersley and Rollie Fingers, both had strong seasons with other teams. Eckersley pitched more years in Oakland but many more innings with the Red Sox because he was a starter early in his career and became a closer with the A’s. In 1992, Eck won the AL Cy Young Award and was the AL MVP. Over the three years from 1989 to 1991, Eckersley amazingly struck out 215 batters and walked just 16 in 207 innings (13.4 K/BB).

Notable snubs: Eddie Collins is fourth on the A’s all-time WAR leaderboard and third on the White Sox’ list. He made the White Sox ballot, but not the A’s. Collins played in four World Series for the A’s and they won three of them. Another old-timer, Eddie Plank, was also part of those four World Series squads and ranks third all-time in WAR for the franchise but is also absent from the ballot.

My Franchise Four: Rickey Henderson, Jimmie Foxx, Lefty Grove, Reggie Jackson

 

Seattle Mariners (1977-2015) 

 

(1) Ken Griffey, Jr., 67.6 WAR (1989-1999, 2009-2010)

(2) Edgar Martinez, 65.5 WAR (1987-2004)

(3) Ichiro!, 54.9 WAR (2001-2012)

(4) Felix Hernandez, 47.9 WAR (2005-2015)

(5) Randy Johnson, 45.5 WAR (1989-1998)

(6) Alex Rodriguez, 35.0 WAR

(7) Jamie Moyer, 30.2 WAR (1996-2006)

(8) Mike Moore, 23.5 WAR

(9) Jay Buhner, 22.4 WAR (1988-2001)

(10) Erik Hanson, 22.0 WAR

(11) Alvin Davis, 21.2 WAR (1984-1991)

 

 

On the ballot: You can’t argue with any of the eight players on the ballot for the Mariners. The top five should definitely be on the ballot and Jamie Moyer and Jay Buhner were on the first three teams in Mariners history to make the playoffs. Alvin Davis, even though he’s 11th on the Mariners’ all-time WAR list, was “Mr. Mariner” in the 1980s. Those were bleak years and he was the one bright spot on the team at the time, even winning the Rookie of the Year award in 1984.

Ken Griffey, Jr. is automatic and I believe Edgar Martinez is also an easy pick for the Mariners Franchise Four. Griffeyput Seattle baseball on the map. Before he joined the Mariners, the team might as well have been in Siberia. Griffey started with the Mariners as a 19-year-old in 1989, then began a stretch of 10 straight season as an American League All-Star, along with 10 straight Gold Gloves and the 1997 AL MVP Award. He led the AL in home runs in each of his final three seasons with the team and averaged 52 homers and 142 RBI per year in his final four years with the M’s.

Edgar Martinez got a late start to his Major League career because the Mariners foolishly kept him in AAA in 1988 and 1989 while Jim Presley manned third base in Seattle. Edgar hit .363/.467/.517 in 1988 and .345/.457/.522 in 1989 in the Pacific Coast League. Meanwhile, Jim Presley combined to hit .232/.278/.367 with the Mariners over those two seasons. Looking back, it was quite ridiculous. Edgar became a full-time player in 1990 and hit .321/.429/.537 over the next twelve years, which included batting titles in 1992 and 1995. That 1995 season was his best in the bigs. He hit .356/.479/.628 and was worth 7 WAR. He then hit .571/.667/1.000 in the five game American League Divisional Series against the Yankees, which ended with Edgar’s game-winning double in the bottom of the 11th that scored two runs and put the Mariners in the ALCS. It’s perhaps the signature moment in the history of the Seattle Mariners.

Griffey and Edgar may be automatic picks but choosing two out of Ichiro, King Felix, and Randy Johnson will be difficult for Mariners’ fans. Ichiro joined the M’s in 2001 and was the AL Rookie of the Year and AL MVP on a team that won 116 games. This was after the Mariners had lost Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez, and Randy Johnson. Also, Ichiro was an All-Star during his first ten seasons with the team with a .331 average and 224 hits per season from 2001 to 2010.

Randy Johnson (“The Big Unit”) was integral to the first two playoff teams in Mariners’ history when he went 18-2 in 1995 and 20-4 in 1997. In that 1995 season, the Big Unit won the one-game playoff against the Angels to put the Mariners in the post-season, then won two games against the Yankees in the ALDS, including one in relief while pitching on one day’s rest. He has the post-season narrative to promote his case for the Mariners Franchise Four.

King Felix, of course, has been the face of the Mariners for the better part of the last decade and is signed through the 2019 season. He won the AL Cy Young Award in 2010 and was second last year. It will be interesting to see what the fans do here with five very good players competing for four spots.

Most likely, Jamie Moyer, Jay Buhner, and Alvin Davis will be left out in the cold, as they just don’t compare to the top five. They all had great moments with the Mariners and are well remembered by the fans.

Notable snubs: He doesn’t really compare to the top five on this list and Mariner fans have no love for him, but A-Rod had five seasons with five or more WAR with the Mariners early in his career, so he was worth more to the team than Moyer, Buhner, or Davis.

My Franchise Four: Ken Griffey, Jr., Edgar Martinez, Ichiro Suzuki, Randy Johnson

 

Texas Rangers (1961-2015)

(1) Ivan Rodriguez, 49.4 WAR (1991-2002, 2009)

(2) Rafael Palmeiro, 42.3 WAR (1989-1993, 1999-2003)

(3) Buddy Bell, 34.6 WAR

(4) Jim Sundberg, 31.4 WAR

(5) Juan Gonzalez, 30.2 WAR (1989-1999, 2002-2003)

(6) Toby Harrah, 29.5 WAR

(7) Ian Kinsler, 29.1 WAR

(8) Frank Howard, 27.9 WAR (1965-1972)

(9) Alex Rodriguez, 27.0 WAR

(10) KennyRogers, 25.6 WAR

(11) Michael Young, 24.4 WAR (2000-2012)

(13) Adrian Beltre, 22.4 WAR (2011-2015)

(14) Josh Hamilton, 22.2 WAR (2008-2012)

(17) Nolan Ryan, 21.1 WAR (1989-1993)

 

On the ballot: Ivan Rodriguez looks like an easy pick for the Rangers Franchise Four. He spent 12 years with the Rangers at the beginning of his career and averaged over 4.0 WAR per season, including five seasons with 5.0 or more WAR. He was the face of the Rangers throughout the 1990s. Not only was he a very good-hitting catcher, he was terrific behind the plate with a rifle for an arm. With the Rangers, he was a 10-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glove winner, and won the 1999 AL MVP Award when he hit .332/.356/.558 with 35 homers and 113 RBI.

Rafael Palmeiro is second all-time in WAR for the Rangers, but his case will be difficult for the voters. Some will choose him as one of the Rangers Franchise Four based solely on his numbers during two stints with the team, while others will consider other factors and not give him a vote. In 10 years with the Rangers, Palmeiro hit .290/.378/.519 with an average of 32 homers and 104 RBI per season.

Whether they were deserved or not, Juan Gonzalez won two MVP awards with the team. His first came in the 1996 season. He hit 47 home runs and had 144 RBI that year, but FanGraphs has him worth just 3.5 WAR. He won the AL MVP Award again in 1998 when he led the AL with 50 homers and 157 RBI, but even that year he was worth just 4.9 WAR, which was much less than many other players, including Alex Rodriguez, who was worth 7.9 WAR.

When Frank Howard was on the team that would become the Texas Rangers they were called the Washington Nationals. I don’t think he’ll resonate with fans as a Franchise Four candidate of a team whose uniform he barely wore (35 games as a Ranger in 1972).

Other than Nolan Ryan, the other players on the eight-man ballot are more recent. Josh Hamilton is unlikely to get much traction from fans but Michael Young and Adrian Beltre could get significant support, as could Nolan Ryan thanks to his post-playing-career role as team president. Young played 13 years with the Rangers, while Ryan played just five years with the team and Beltre is in the midst of his fifth season with Texas.

Notable snubs: For a generation of Ranger’s fans in the early 1980s, Buddy Bell was the team’s best player and regular All-Star representative. He only played six-and-a-half seasons with the team but had more than 4 WAR in all six full seasons and had three seasons with greater than 6 WAR, in large part due to terrific defense at third base.

My Franchise Four: Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, Michael Young, Nolan Ryan


Hardball Retrospective – The “Original” 1992 Chicago White Sox

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, John Smoltz is listed on the Tigers roster for the duration of his career while the Rockies declare Matt Holliday and the Royals claim Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the finest single-season rosters for every Major League organization based on overall rankings in OWAR and OWS along with the general managers and scouting directors that constructed the teams. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The print edition is coming soon. Additional information and a discussion forum are available at TuataraSoftware.com.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

Assessment

The 1992 Chicago White Sox         OWAR: 48.7     OWS: 278     OPW%: .547

GM Roland Hemond acquired 48% (12 of 25) of the ballplayers on the 1992 White Sox roster. Larry Himes’ brief term as the GM of the Pale Hose yielded a bumper crop of future stars including Frank E. Thomas, Robin Ventura, Jack McDowell and Alex Fernandez. 20 of the 25 team members were selected through the Amateur Draft process. Based on the revised standings the “Original” 1992 White Sox outpaced the Athletics by a five-game margin in the American League Western Division race.

Thomas (.323/24/115) paced the Junior Circuit with 46 doubles, 122 walks and a .439 OBP. The “Big Hurt” was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2014 after posting a .301 lifetime batting average with 521 home runs and 1704 RBI. Ventura (.282/16/93) ripped 38 two-base hits and earned his second of six Gold Glove Awards. Brian Downing (.407 OBP) and Harold Baines platooned as the Sox’ designated hitter.

Thomas ranks tenth among first basemen in “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract.” Ventura (22nd-3B), Downing (38th-LF) and Baines (42nd-RF) also placed in the top 100 at their respective positions.

LINEUP POS WAR WS
Brian Downing DH 1.85 13.83
Randy Velarde SS 1.89 12.15
Frank Thomas 1B 5.99 36.23
Robin Ventura 3B 5.27 28.53
Ron Karkovice C 2.58 12.13
Daryl Boston LF 1.18 10.4
Tim Hulett 2B/3B 0.65 4.19
Cecil Espy RF 0.06 3.81
John Cangelosi CF/LF -0.16 0.81
BENCH POS WAR WS
Craig Grebeck SS 2.17 9.71
Harold Baines DH 0.44 12.52
Mike Maksudian 1B -0.04 0
Matt Merullo C -0.38 0.25

Doug Drabek (15-11, 2.77) fashioned a WHIP of 1.060 and whiffed a career-high 177 batsmen. Jack McDowell notched 20 victories with a 3.18 ERA and finished fifth in the 1992 American League Cy Young balloting. “Black Jack” claimed the award in the subsequent campaign with a 22-10 mark. Bobby Thigpen struggled in the closer’s role (22 SV, 4.75) and eventually relinquished the title to Scott Radinsky (15 SV, 2.73). Rich “Goose” Gossage rates 37th among pitchers in the “NBJHBA”.

ROTATION POS WAR WS
Doug Drabek SP 5.18 19.31
Jack McDowell SP 5.17 19.77
Alex Fernandez SP 0.21 6.39
Bob Wickman SP 0.43 2.91
Buddy Groom SP -0.57 0
BULLPEN POS WAR WS
Scott Radinsky RP 0.49 6.98
Rich Gossage RP 0.4 2.33
Bobby Thigpen RP -0.56 3.07
Donn Pall RP -1.17 2.17
Vicente Palacios RP/SP 0.08 1.92
Tony Menendez RP 0.09 0.68
Pedro Borbon RP -0.04 0

The “Original” 1992 Chicago White Sox roster

NAME POS WAR WS General Manager Scouting DIrector
Frank Thomas 1B 5.99 36.23 Larry Himes Al Goldis
Robin Ventura 3B 5.27 28.53 Larry Himes
Doug Drabek SP 5.18 19.31 Roland Hemond
Jack McDowell SP 5.17 19.77 Larry Himes
Ron Karkovice C 2.58 12.13 Roland Hemond
Craig Grebeck SS 2.17 9.71 Ken Harrelson
Randy Velarde SS 1.89 12.15 Roland Hemond
Brian Downing DH 1.85 13.83 Ed Short
Daryl Boston LF 1.18 10.4 Roland Hemond
Tim Hulett 3B 0.65 4.19 Roland Hemond
Scott Radinsky RP 0.49 6.98 Ken Harrelson
Harold Baines DH 0.44 12.52 Roland Hemond
Bob Wickman SP 0.43 2.91 Larry Himes Al Goldis
Rich Gossage RP 0.4 2.33 Ed Short
Alex Fernandez SP 0.21 6.39 Larry Himes Al Goldis
Tony Menendez RP 0.09 0.68 Roland Hemond
Vicente Palacios SP 0.08 1.92 Roland Hemond
Cecil Espy RF 0.06 3.81 Roland Hemond
Mike Maksudian 1B -0.04 0 Larry Himes
Pedro Borbon RP -0.04 0 Larry Himes
John Cangelosi LF -0.16 0.81 Roland Hemond
Matt Merullo C -0.38 0.25 Ken Harrelson
Bobby Thigpen RP -0.56 3.07 Roland Hemond
Buddy Groom SP -0.57 0 Larry Himes
Donn Pall RP -1.17 2.17 Roland Hemond

Honorable Mention

The “Original” 2006 White Sox          OWAR: 45.0     OWS: 293     OPW%: .533

Chicago captured the American League Central division title by 5 games over Cleveland. “Big Hurt” rebounded from two sub-par campaigns to swat 39 big-flies and drive in 114 runs. Mike Cameron clubbed 22 round-trippers, pilfered 25 bags and claimed his third Gold Glove Award. Joe Crede established personal-bests with 30 jacks, 94 ribbies and a .283 BA. Likewise second baseman Ray Durham set career-highs in home runs (26) and RBI (93). Carlos “El Caballo” Lee slugged 37 circuit clouts and plated 116 baserunners. Magglio Ordonez contributed a .298 BA with 24 dingers and 104 ribbies.

On Deck

The “Original” 2012 Dodgers

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive


Rafael Montero Scouting Report

Rafael Montero is one of the New York Mets’ top pitching prospects, and he was given the spot start the other evening against the Mets’ division rival the Miami Marlins.  Montero got the loss after giving up three runs in the sixth but looked sharp striking out six and walking one over 5.2 innings.  Although Montero was sent back to the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate in Las Vegas, he will be back up later this season for bullpen help and will be the first called up to replace any starters that get injured during the long 162-game season.

Positives

Fastball movement and command

Although Montero’s fastball is not overpowering (90-93 mph, topping out at 94 mph), he placed it on both sides of the plate and kept it knee-high throughout his start.  This translated into Marlins hitters taking called strikes early in their at-bats, striking out looking (See first inning Dee Gordon and third inning Adeiny Hechavarria) and a good groundball rate of 48.1% for Montero (50%+ is considered an above-average groundball pitcher).  Montero’s fastball also showed strong arm-side run and sink at 90-93 mph, which projects a continued strong groundball rate in future outings.

Kept pitches down in the zone

Montero kept nearly all of his fastballs and off-speed pitches thigh high or below which resulted in very few hard-hit balls by Marlins hitters.  The only three pitches that were hard hit off of Montero were:

  1. A Gordon fourth inning double on a four-seam fastball that was more a case of Gordon’s ability to hit rather than poor command by Montero.
  2. A Giancarlo Stanton fourth inning line out to Mets third baseman Eric Campbell that was a product of a knee-high and inside two-seam fastball which showed the importance of keeping the ball down in the zone. If that fastball was a bit higher, it could have resulted in either a double down the third-base line or a two-run home run.
  3. A Gordon sixth-inning single (advanced to second on Curtis Granderson fielding error) on a four-seam fastball that was left up in the strike zone. It was one of the few poor pitches left up and over the plate by Montero all night.

Use of slider

After a few appearances last year where Montero threw nearly 80% fastballs, the Mets have pushed him to throw his off-speed pitches more often.  Although Montero only threw 46% of his sliders for strikes last night, he did throw his slider for a strike when he needed to (see sixth inning Stanton 3-1 slider for called strike).  The 46% strike percentage can also be misleading because many of the times Montero threw his slider low and out of the strike zone in an attempt to cause a swing and miss.

Negatives

First-pitch strikes

Analyst that argue first-pitch strikes are overrated due to the small differences in 0-1 and 1-0 batting averages fail to understand that the first pitch of an at-bat will dictate which pitches will be thrown in the following pitches.  This is the reason that every pitching coach in America stresses the importance of first-pitch strikes to their pitchers.

Having said that, Montero did an average job getting ahead of hitters with first-pitch strikes or creating balls in play on the first pitch at a combined rate of 60%.  If Montero wants to become a second or third starter in a rotation, it will be imperative to get the first pitch of the at-bat into the strike zone closer to 75% to 80%.  When Montero does not get ahead of hitters, it is difficult for him to come back in an at-bat from 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 counts because his off-speed pitches aren’t sharp enough to create many swing and misses.  This will force him to throw more predictable fastballs that will be hit into play harder.

Pitches up in the sixth inning

There were two notable pitches in the sixth inning that led to the Marlins go ahead runs:

  1. The four-seam fastball noted earlier to Gordon that resulted in a line drive single to right field.
  2. A 3-2 fastball to Stanton which resulted in a RBI single to left field.

On both of those fastballs, Montero didn’t get his hand on top of the baseball during his release or more commonly known as “finishing his pitch”.  This causes his four-seam fastball to stay up in the zone and allows his two-seam fastball to come back on a flat plane over the plate as opposed to a sinking plane left to right over the plate.  The reason Montero wasn’t able to finish his pitches well was most likely due to his small frame becoming tired on his 90th pitch of the game.

Comparison

Montero’s body type is similar to Pedro Martinez with his six-foot, 185-pound frame but large enough hands to have the ability to manipulate movement on the baseball.  The one main difference is Martinez threw a consistent mid-90’s fastball and much sharper breaking off-speed pitches.  Montero’s repertoire of pitches can better be compared to Tim Hudson with his low-90’s two-seam sinker and the ability to locate an above-average slider.