Yoenis Cespedes: Worst to be Best in Home Run Derby

On Monday night, Yoenis Cespedes became the 26th player to win Major League Baseball’s Home Run Derby, joining the ranks of such elite power hitters as Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Ken Griffey Jr. and … Wally Joyner.

Cespedes edged Bryce Harper in the finals and put on one of the most impressive performances the Derby has seen, starting off by hitting 17 home runs in one round and hitting 32 overall, both feats which tie for third-best in the Derby’s history.

This year’s lineup featured, as it always does, some of the game’s premier power hitters, including robot humanoid Chris Davis and two-time Derby champ Prince Fielder.

Behold, a fully functional (however unsortable, to the great dismay of the author) table of this year’s Home Run Derby participants and some relevant first-half batting/power statistics:

 

Player	G	PA	HR	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
Chris Davis	95	393	37	.402	.458	193
David Wright	90	399	15	.225	.389	154
Michael Cuddyer	74	317	16	.239	.409	149
Bryce Harper	58	242	13	.259	.381	145
Robinson Cano	95	409	21	.266	.351	127
Pedro Alvarez	85	334	24	.266	.351	127
Prince Fielder	94	422	16	.190	.355	123
Yoenis Cespedes	79	341	15	.195	.307	94

American League captain Robinson Cano was given the liberty of choosing three men to represent his team in the world’s annual derby of batsmanship, and he chose Cespedes. An interesting choice, as Cespedes has not been even a league-average hitter this season according to wRC+, but probably not one unwarranted through the eyes of Bud Selig as Cespedes taps into the Cuban market and is still one of the game’s more exciting young players.

And so, in the true nature of sport, Cespedes – the most unlikely of victors given his struggles this season – went out and won the whole damn thing.

Upon Cespedes’ win, I naturally went to his FanGraphs page and noticed his wRC+ was under 100, provoking me to silently think to myself: “I wonder if any other Home Run Derby champion failed to be even a league-average hitter at the time of his crowning?”

Behold, a fully functional and regrettably still unsortable table, this time of past Home Run Derby winners and their relevant first-half batting/power statistics:

 

Winner	Year	G	PA	HR	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
Luis Gonzalez	2001	87	388	35	.391	.483	192
Frank Thomas	1995	66	305	21	.333	.472	189
Prince Fielder	2009	88	387	22	.299	.442	174
Jason Giambi	2002	86	381	22	.283	.438	174
Ken Griffey Jr.	1994	87	383	33	.368	.453	172
Cal Ripken	1991	80	353	18	.248	.433	172
Juan Gonzalez	1993	75	316	23	.317	.438	171
Mark McGwire	1992	87	368	28	.321	.419	170
Ken Griffey Jr.	1998	88	395	35	.380	.436	165
Barry Bonds	1996	86	385	23	.276	.422	162
Ryne Sandberg	1990	83	370	24	.272	.427	161
Ken Griffey Jr.	1999	85	384	29	.310	.425	156
Tino Martinez	1997	84	376	28	.317	.411	151
Bobby Abreu	2005	89	397	18	.220	.409	148
David Ortiz	2010	74	305	18	.299	.398	145
Vladimir Guerrero	2007	85	368	14	.222	.398	144
Garret Anderson	2003	92	388	22	.281	.394	144
Justin Morneau	2008	95	412	14	.189	.386	138
Sammy Sosa	2000	86	394	23	.269	.399	135
Prince Fielder	2012	86	371	15	.206	.373	135
Robinson Cano	2011	87	368	15	.225	.368	129
Ryan Howard	2006	84	352	28	.304	.380	125
Miguel Tejada	2004	85	341	15	.195	.364	121
Yoenis Cespedes	2013	79	341	15	.195	.307	94

The answer is no, and it really isn’t even close.

Since the Derby changed to its current format in 1990, no winner has been within 20% of being “just” league average, and a full 57 points of wOBA separates Cespedes from Miguel Tejada’s 2004 first-half campaign.

In fact, Cespedes is only the fourth player to have entered the Home Run Derby as a below-league-average hitter. That’s right, even in the years that Hee-Seop Choi and Damion Easley competed, they had been at least league-average.

In 2005, Ivan Rodriguez had a wRC+ of 97, Rafael Palmeiro came in at 96 in 2004 and you have to go all the way back to 1994 for Ruben Sierra to “top” Cespedes with a first-half wRC+ of 92.

Interestingly enough, they all performed fairly well in the Derby, despite walking away as losers – or, not winners. Each advanced past the first round, with Pudge finishing runner-up to Bobby Abreu’s monster performance. Palmeiro and Sierra each took third.

Similar to how people say the Derby can throw locked-in power hitters into second-half slumps, maybe it can also get struggling power hitters into a groove again. Probably not, but it was an intriguing observation nonetheless.

Robinson Cano had to choose three men to represent his team of lumber swingers to hit dingers, and he threw caution to the wind by choosing Yoenis Cespedes, who had a worse first half at the plate than Cano’s teammate Lyle Overbay. But this wasn’t a first-half regular season baseball game and Yoenis Cespedes doesn’t play first base for the New York Yankees (and now apparently sometimes right field, too). It was the Home Run Derby, and Yoenis Cespedes reaffirmed Robinson Cano’s bold choice by making history.