The Modern Eras Committee Just Elected Bartolo Colon to the Hall of Fame
Jack Morris pitched 18 seasons while Bartolo Colon has now pitched 20. They both have a career winning percentage of .577. Morris has 2478 career strikeouts while Colon has 2454. Morris had 254 wins while Colon has 240 in an era where they are harder to obtain. Colon won a Cy Young while Morris’s highest finish was third. Morris has an ERA+ of 105, compared to Colon’s career ERA+ of 107. In fact, if you only looked at their first 15 years, Colon’s ERA+ of 114 outperforms Morris’s ERA+ of 109 even more!
Perhaps you strongly believe that, despite their statistical similarities, Jack Morris was significantly better than Bartolo Colon. Still, the fact that an argument could be made that Colon is as good a pitcher as Morris shows just how big a mistake the Modern Eras Committee made in electing Jack Morris to the Baseball Hall of Fame this weekend.
The list of players who were once viewed as “obviously not Hall of Famers” does not stop at Colon, either. In his article on ESPN.com, David Schoenfield said that it would be foolish to treat Morris as a benchmark for Hall of Fame induction. This argument is in defense of the Hall of Fame’s level of “rigor” — many think that without maintaining a certain level, the Hall of Fame may lose it’s significance. However, I believe there is another characteristic that the Hall of Fame must preserve even more so than rigor in order to maintain its credibility — and that is justice. If the Hall of Fame exposes itself as being discretionary in its election of members, it will quickly lose its relevance.
By electing Jack Morris to the Baseball Hall of Fame, voters both lowered the level of rigor previously required for election and have left the Hall of Fame in a current state of injustice until the following eligible players are also elected: Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Dave Stieb, Rick Reuschel, Orel Hershiser, David Cone, Sam McDowell, Luis Tiant, Kevin Brown, Vida Blue, Bret Saberhagen, and Kevin Appier,
And the following cases are re-opened for election: Dwight Gooden, David Wells, Jim Kaat, Tommy John, Wilbur Wood, Ron Guidry, Jimmy Key, Frank Tanana, Dennis Martinez, Mark Langston, Chuck Finley, Mark Buehrle, Frank Viola and Jose Rijo.
Every single one of these 30 pitchers had a higher career ERA+ than Jack Morris and have either a higher career value, a higher peak value, or both.
Looks like Colon may be able to hang up his cleats a little more confidently this off-season now that Morris is in the Hall.
Professional statistical modeler who counts pondering the game of baseball as a favorite, lifelong pastime.
Except the HOF committee won’t vote in a PED user
That’s all you managed to get out of this? Replace Bartolo with Mark Langston from that bottom list and give it another read.
Bartolo’s ability to switch teams and leagues, eventually changing his pitching style 3 times ending up completely opposite what he started out as…As well as pitching effectively through the bulk of thd steroid era. Also the entertainment factor even at the dish!
HoF!
Curt Schilling, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina and Tommy John are all more deserving of the Hall of Fame than Jack Morris. The rest of these players are not. The main difference is playoffs. The only player that produced more in the playoffs than Jack Morris in this list is Andy Pettitte. WAR does not include any information regarding the playoffs.
David Cone pitched more playoff innings than Jack Morris with exactly the same career postseason career ERA (3.80), to go along with 5 World Series Championships, a Cy Young, a career ERA+ of 121 compared Morris’106, a career WAR of 61.7 vs Morris’ 43.8 even though Morris played one more season than Cone. Oh yeah and Cone pitched an iconic perfect game to one-up Morris’s 10-inning WS performance. So why is Morris more deserving than Cone?
Orel Hershiser Had a higher ERA+ and higher career WAR, won a Cy Young, was a World Series MVP and two LCS MVPs, and a 2.56 ERA in 132 career postseason innings. Oh yeah and he pitched 57 straight scoreless innings one time…
Ron Guidry, David Wells and Jimmy Key were arguably better in the postseason as well… Brett Saberhagen, Frank Viola, and Jose Rijo won WS MVPs… Morris’ election was based on arbitrary, inconsistent standards.
Player Series Gm cWPA
Jack Morris 1991 World Series 7 0.791
Frank Viola 1987 World Series 7 0.363
Bret Saberhagen 1985 World Series 7 0.185
Jack Morris 1984 World Series 1 0.179
David Cone 1992 World Series 6 0.143
Jimmy Key 1992 World Series 4 0.135
Jack Morris 1984 World Series 4 0.106
David Wells 2003 ALCS 5 0.096
Bret Saberhagen 1985 ALCS 7 0.086
Orel Hershiser 1997 ALCS 3 0.081
Jack Morris 1991 World Series 4 0.078
Jack Morris 1991 World Series 1 0.073
This is a list of those pitcher’s best games in the playoffs by cPWA. Morris is plain better. No argument.
and yet there is a reason why his postseason ERA was 3.80 – he had some major duds in big moments too. This is why we need to look at multiple data sources when evaluating player’s careers. I can make a great HoF case for Doc Gooden if I limit the debate to a player’s highest single-season WAR. The truth about Jack Morris is that he was a gritty slightly above league average pitcher who found himself in several extremely high-leverage situations in his career, some of which he pitched at a way higher level than the rest of his career would have indicated.
If you weight their cWPA (Championship Win Probability Added) by their cLI (Championship Leverage Index) you get a value which represent how effective a player was in entirety of his postseason career. Orel Hershiser, El Duque, and David Wells are all in the top twenty all-time. Jack Morris is 58th all-time. I feel validated.
Top World Series Performances (These players)
Player Year Team
Jack Morris 1991 MIN
Ron Guidry 1978 NYY
Frank Viola 1987 MIN
Bret Saberhagen 1985 KCR
Orel Hershiser 1988 LAD
Curt Schilling 2001 ARI
Curt Schilling 2004 BOS
Mark Buehrle 2005 CHW
Jack Morris 1984 DET
So yes Jack Morris wasn’t good in some of his post-seasons. But he was #1 above everyone in 1991. David Cone doesn’t even make the top 10.
Morris was elected because old-timers who fear sabermetrics wanted to prove that they still have influence over the Hall Process. That’s it.
What would be a batter equivalent to Jack Morris? Kirk Gibson? I was thinking maybe Bill Mazeroski, but at least he was an all-time elite defensive infielder.
The correct answer is Bobby Thomson