Ranking Free Agent Pitchers by TIPS

TIPS is a new ERA estimator that I have created. The post on the estimator can be found here.

In short, TIPS is an estimator that attempts to measure pitcher skill completely independent from all other factors other than batter-pitcher relationships (removing defense, catchers, umpires, batted ball luck, etc.). The formula is:

TIPS 6.5*O-Looking(PitchF/x) – 9.75*SwStr% – 4.8*Foul% + C (around 2.60)

where: O-Looking(PitchF/x) = 1 – O-Swing% (PitchF/x), SwStr% = percent of pitches swung at and missed, Foul% = percent of contacts fouled off

The estimator was found to be the most predictive of any estimator in samples less than 70 IP.

I have taken the free agent custom leaderboards provided by Dave Cameron and ranked the pitchers by TIPS.

TIPS may not have as much power with starting pitchers, since the samples will be larger than 70 IP, but since these pitchers will be changing defense, park, and catcher, I believe it can be useful (when used with FIP and xFIP). Click this text for the starting pitcher leaderboard.

If you cannot view the google spreadsheet, here are the top free agent starting pitchers by TIPS. Yes, I know Lincecum has since signed, but he is still included.

Rank	Name	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	TIPS
1	Scott Kazmir	158	4.04	3.51	3.36	3.55
2	Shaun Marcum	78.1	5.29	3.64	4.22	3.57
3	Tim Lincecum	197.2	4.37	3.74	3.56	3.58
4	Dan Haren	169.2	4.67	4.09	3.67	3.64
5	A.J. Burnett	191	3.30	2.80	2.92	3.65
6	Tim Stauffer	69.2	3.75	3.55	3.20	3.70
7	Phil Hughes	145.2	5.19	4.50	4.39	3.71
8	Josh Johnson	81.1	6.20	4.62	3.58	3.72
9	Ricky Nolasco	199.1	3.70	3.34	3.58	3.75
10	Matt Garza	155.1	3.82	3.88	3.73	3.75
11	Tim Hudson	131.1	3.97	3.46	3.56	3.76
12	Hiroki Kuroda	201.1	3.31	3.56	3.60	3.78
13	Andy Pettitte	185.1	3.74	3.70	3.88	3.83
14	Ervin Santana	211	3.24	3.93	3.69	3.89
15	Aaron Harang	143.1	5.40	4.79	4.38	3.93
16	Roberto Hernandez	151	4.89	4.63	3.60	3.95
17	Roy Oswalt	32.1	8.63	3.08	3.39	3.96
18	Bruce Chen	121	3.27	4.12	4.93	4.02
19	Jeff Francis	70.1	6.27	4.54	3.82	4.02
20	Chris Capuano	105.2	4.26	3.55	3.67	4.04
21	Ubaldo Jimenez	182.2	3.30	3.43	3.62	4.04
22	Erik Bedard	151	4.59	4.38	4.61	4.09
23	Chad Gaudin	97	3.06	3.34	4.00	4.15
24	Jason Hammel	139.1	4.97	4.93	4.56	4.15
25	Paul Maholm	153	4.41	4.24	3.89	4.18
26	Jason Vargas	150	4.02	4.09	4.29	4.22
27	Edinson Volquez	170.1	5.71	4.24	4.07	4.23
28	Freddy Garcia	80.1	4.37	5.49	4.00	4.28
29	Roy Halladay	62	6.82	6.14	5.10	4.31
30	Barry Zito	133.1	5.74	4.92	4.81	4.34
31	Bartolo Colon	190.1	2.65	3.23	3.95	4.36
32	Wandy Rodriguez	62.2	3.59	4.42	4.00	4.36
33	Scott Feldman	181.2	3.86	4.03	3.96	4.37
34	Mike Pelfrey	152.2	5.19	3.99	4.54	4.53
35	Jon Garland	68	5.82	4.93	4.54	4.57
36	Joe Saunders	183	5.26	4.72	4.23	4.63
37	Ryan Vogelsong	103.2	5.73	4.91	4.50	4.70
38	Bronson Arroyo	202	3.79	4.49	3.97	4.72
39	Jake Westbrook	116.2	4.63	4.62	4.95	4.78
40	Jason Marquis	117.2	4.05	5.65	4.81	4.83

Kazmir, Marcum, Haren, Hughes, and Johnson all look like really good value signings (when comparing their ERA and FIP/xFIP/TIPS). Scott Kazmir is someone who I believe could be a legit number 2 guy moving forward if he can keep his velocity. I know Jason Marquis had a 4.05 ERA, but he is someone you should be wishing your team does not sign.

But now on to where TIPS really shines, relievers!

Here is the RHP leaderboard and LHP leaderboard. I am also providing the full combined leaderboard:

Rank	Name	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	TIPS
1	Edward Mujica	64.2	2.78	3.71	3.53	2.58
2	Manny Parra	46	3.33	3.07	2.79	2.95
3	Joaquin Benoit	67	2.01	2.87	3.16	3.00
4	Boone Logan	39	3.23	3.82	2.71	3.01
5	Jesse Crain	36.2	0.74	1.52	2.94	3.06
6	Joe Nathan	64.2	1.39	2.26	3.27	3.06
7	Javier Lopez	39.1	1.83	2.41	2.92	3.08
8	Oliver Perez	53	3.74	3.26	3.36	3.31
9	Matt Belisle	73	4.32	3.03	2.99	3.39
10	Fernando Rodney	66.2	3.38	2.84	3.11	3.41
11	David Aardsma	39.2	4.31	5.27	4.63	3.43
12	Chad Durbin	16	9.00	5.99	4.44	3.47
13	Jose Valverde	19.1	5.59	6.36	4.09	3.49
14	Jon Rauch	16.2	7.56	3.47	4.16	3.51
15	Carlos Marmol	49	4.41	5.19	4.53	3.54
16	Rafael Betancourt	28.2	4.08	3.22	4.22	3.54
17	Grant Balfour	62.2	2.59	3.49	3.42	3.55
18	Tim Stauffer	69.2	3.75	3.55	3.20	3.70
19	Matt Thornton	43.1	3.74	4.04	4.13	3.7
20	Chad Qualls	62	2.61	3.32	3.25	3.72
21	Michael Gonzalez	50	4.68	4.87	3.88	3.75
22	Luis Ayala	33	3.27	3.68	3.77	3.82
23	Kameron Loe	26.2	7.09	8.41	4.69	3.82
24	Jason Frasor	49	2.57	3.37	3.62	3.86
25	Scott Downs	43.1	2.49	3.09	3.3	3.86
26	LaTroy Hawkins	70.2	2.93	3.06	3.12	3.91
27	Rich Hill	38.2	6.28	3.82	4.12	3.96
28	Matt Guerrier	42.2	4.01	3.82	4.44	3.97
29	Jamey Wright	70	3.09	3.13	3.48	3.97
30	Eric O’Flaherty	18	2.5	4.1	3.8	3.97
31	Matt Lindstrom	60.2	3.12	3.15	3.87	4.00
32	Brandon Lyon	34.1	4.98	3.98	4.48	4.02
33	Mark Lowe	11.2	9.26	5.79	6.55	4.13
34	J.P. Howell	62	2.18	2.89	3.48	4.14
35	Joba Chamberlain	42	4.93	5.64	4.60	4.15
36	Chad Gaudin	97	3.06	3.34	4.00	4.15
37	Joe Smith	63	2.29	3.60	3.70	4.26
38	Matt Albers	63	3.14	3.49	3.82	4.35
39	Shawn Camp	23	7.04	7.05	4.93	4.42
40	Kyle Farnsworth	38.1	4.70	4.14	3.73	4.46
41	Kevin Gregg	62	3.48	4.10	4.38	4.54
42	Scott Atchison	45.1	4.37	3.75	4.02	4.57
43	Darren Oliver	49	3.86	4.05	3.74	4.72
44	Hideki Okajima	4	2.25	7.3	5.76	5.08
45	Brett Myers	21.1	8.02	8.72	4.80	5.28
46	Peter Moylan	15.1	6.46	6.18	5.86	5.37
47	Tim Byrdak	4.2	7.71	8.62	5.68	5.54

There are a few notable FA relief pitchers. Mujica, Benoit, Nathan, Rodney, Balfour, Hawkins, and Gregg all closed this year. Crain is a pitcher who could potentially close as well. Looking at the closers, Mujica is alone in the top tier by TIPS. Then Benoit, Crain, and Nathan are second tier. Rodney and Balfour are in the next tier, while Hawkins and then Gregg are in the final tiers. Gregg in particular looks like a RP that no team should touch. Parra and Logan make for some good LOOGY signs if teams are looking for left-handed relievers. There a quite a few names in this list that would do a fine job in filling out a bullpen. It goes to show that trading for bullpen pieces might be akin to trading your brother or sister your blueberry for their strawberry when there is a pack of strawberries on the counter. A bit of a random analogy, but it makes sense. The SP crop is much thinner than the RP crop. There are no big name or potential number 1 pitchers in the FA crop, which means teams that are looking to add to the front of their rotation might have to do so through trade.

On a bit of a side note, I wanted to talk a little more about TIPS. Why does TIPS really like Mujica? It loves his amazing 44.2% O-Swing% and his 12.5% SwStr% isn’t too shabby either. O-Swing% (I use the PitchF/x value), SwStr%, and Foul% are peripherals that you should be accustomed to looking at and understanding. Foul% is not readily available, but is not too hard to calculate. What value is good? What is bad? I will explain here:

To finish this off, I’d like to say Koji Uehara is a monster. 39.2% O-Swing% (Above Excellent), 18.5 SwStr% (Above Excellent), and 60.8% Foul% (Almost Excellent).