Pitch Win Values for Starting Pitchers – July 2014

Introduction

A couple months back, I introduced a new method of calculating pitch values using a FIP-based WAR methodology.  That post details the basic framework of these calculations and  can be found here .  The May and June updates can be found here and here respectively.  This post is simply the July 2014 update of the same data.  What follows is predominantly data-heavy but should still provide useful talking points for discussion.  Let’s dive in and see what we can find.  Please note that the same caveats apply as previous months.  We’re at the mercy of pitch classification.  I’m sure your favorite pitcher doesn’t throw that pitch that has been rated as incredibly below average, but we have to go off of the data that is available.  Also, Baseball Prospectus’s PitchF/x leaderboards list only nine pitches (Four-Seam Fastball, Sinker, Cutter, Splitter, Curveball, Slider, Changeup, Screwball, and Knuckleball).  Anything that may be classified outside of these categories is not included.  Also, anything classified as a “slow curve” is not included in Baseball Prospectus’s curveball data.

Constants

Before we begin, we must first update the constants used in calculation for Jule.  As a refresher, we need three different constants for calculation: strikes per strikeout, balls per walk, and a FIP constant to bring the values onto the right scale.  We will tackle them each individually.

First, let’s discuss the strikeout constant.  In July, there were 47,449 strikes thrown by starting pitchers.  Of these 47,449 strikes, 4,585 were turned into hits and 13,750 outs were recorded.  Of these 13,750 outs, 3,725 were converted via the strikeout, leaving us with 10,025 ball-in-play outs.  10,025 ball-in-play strikes and 4,585 hits sum to 14,610 balls-in-play.  Subtracting 14,610 balls-in-play from our original 47,449 strikes leaves us with 32,839 strikes to distribute over our 3,725 strikeouts.  That’s a ratio of 8.82 strikes per strikeout.  This is exactly the same as our from 8.82 strikes per strikeout in June.

The next two constants are much easier to ascertain.  In July, there were 26,244 balls thrown by starters and 1,328 walked batters.  That’s a ratio of 19.76 balls per walk, up from 19.36 balls per walk in June.  This data would suggest that hitters were slightly less likely to walk in July than previously.  The FIP subtotal for all pitches in July was 0.52.  The MLB Run Average for July was 4.17, meaning our FIP constant for May is 3.65.

Constant	Value
Strikes/K	8.82
Balls/BB	19.76
cFIP	3.65

The following table details how the constants have changed month-to-month.

Month	K	BB	cFIP
March/April	8.47	18.50	3.68
May	8.88	18.77	3.58
June	8.82	19.36	3.59
July	8.82	19.76	3.65

Pitch Values – July 2014

For reference, the following table details the FIP for each pitch type in the month of July.

Pitch	FIP
Four-Seam	4.06
Sinker	4.20
Cutter	4.42
Splitter	3.50
Curveball	4.08
Slider	3.87
Changeup	4.79
Screwball	3.58
Knuckleball	3.97
MLB RA	4.16

As we can see, only three pitches would be classified as below average for the month of July: sinkers, cutters, and changeups.  Four-Seam Fastballs and curveballs also came in right around league average.  Pitchers that were able to stand out in these categories tended to have better overall months than pitchers who excelled at the other pitches.  Now, let’s proceed to the data for the month of July.

Four-Seam Fastball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Ian Kennedy	0.6	180	Brad Peacock	-0.3
2	Clayton Kershaw	0.6	181	Jake Odorizzi	-0.3
3	Jose Quintana	0.6	182	Jason Hammel	-0.3
4	Drew Hutchison	0.5	183	Edwin Jackson	-0.3
5	Jacob deGrom	0.5	184	Chris Young	-0.3

Sinker

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Brandon McCarthy	0.4	167	Chase Whitley	-0.2
2	Roberto Hernandez	0.4	168	Andrew Heaney	-0.2
3	Doug Fister	0.4	169	Jon Niese	-0.2
4	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.4	170	David Buchanan	-0.2
5	Wade Miley	0.3	171	Nick Tepesch	-0.3

Cutter

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Josh Collmenter	0.3	77	Brandon McCarthy	-0.2
2	Jon Lester	0.3	78	Drew Smyly	-0.2
3	Kevin Correia	0.2	79	Brandon Workman	-0.2
4	Jarred Cosart	0.2	80	Dan Haren	-0.3
5	Adam Wainwright	0.2	81	Hector Noesi	-0.4

Splitter

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.3	27	Daisuke Matsuzaka	0.0
2	Hiroki Kuroda	0.3	28	Ubaldo Jimenez	0.0
3	Jake Odorizzi	0.2	29	Tim Lincecum	-0.1
4	Alex Cobb	0.2	30	Doug Fister	-0.1
5	Tim Hudson	0.2	31	Clay Buchholz	-0.1

Curveball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Sonny Gray	0.3	155	Hiroki Kuroda	-0.1
2	Clay Buchholz	0.2	156	Josh Tomlin	-0.2
3	Jesse Hahn	0.2	157	Kevin Correia	-0.2
4	Adam Wainwright	0.2	158	Eric Stults	-0.3
5	Jose Quintana	0.2	159	Josh Beckett	-0.3

Slider

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Garrett Richards	0.5	125	Jair Jurrjens	-0.1
2	Tyson Ross	0.4	126	Jason Lane	-0.1
3	Jake Arrieta	0.3	127	Jake Buchanan	-0.1
4	Brett Anderson	0.3	128	Matt Cain	-0.1
5	Kyle Lohse	0.3	129	C.J. Wilson	-0.1

Changeup

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Cole Hamels	0.3	156	Rubby de la Rosa	-0.2
2	David Price	0.3	157	David Holmberg	-0.2
3	Chris Sale	0.2	158	Mike Minor	-0.2
4	Zack Greinke	0.2	159	Jeff Locke	-0.3
5	James Shields	0.2	160	Drew Hutchison	-0.4

Screwball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Trevor Bauer	0.0
2	Julio Teheran	0.0
3	Hector Santiago	0.0

Knuckleball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	R.A. Dickey	0.4

Overall

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Cole Hamels	1.0	187	Jair Jurrjens	-0.4
2	Jacob deGrom	0.9	188	Erik Bedard	-0.4
3	Tyson Ross	0.9	189	Jason Hammel	-0.4
4	Jose Quintana	0.9	190	Brad Peacock	-0.4
5	Chris Sale	0.9	191	Nick Tepesch	-0.4

Pitch Ratings – July 2014

Four-Seam Fastball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Drew Hutchison	59	83	Jake Odorizzi	38
2	Jose Quintana	59	84	Jake Peavy	38
3	Cole Hamels	58	85	Josh Tomlin	36
4	Mark Buehrle	58	86	Brad Peacock	35
5	Tim Lincecum	58	87	Jason Hammel	34

Sinker

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Travis Wood	58	73	Kevin Correia	36
2	Scott Kazmir	57	74	John Danks	36
3	Matt Garza	57	75	Jeff Samardzija	35
4	Brandon McCarthy	57	76	Dan Haren	32
5	Doug Fister	57	77	Nick Tepesch	25

Cutter

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Marcus Stroman	58	32	Mike Minor	33
2	Jon Lester	58	33	Tim Hudson	33
3	Daisuke Matsuzaka	57	34	Brandon McCarthy	32
4	Phil Hughes	57	35	Dan Haren	28
5	Franklin Morales	57	36	Hector Noesi	20

Splitter

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Tim Hudson	57	8	Jorge de la Rosa	53
2	Kyle Kendrick	56	9	Alfredo Simon	53
3	Hisashi Iwakuma	56	10	Jeff Samardzija	53
4	Kevin Gausman	56	11	Alex Cobb	52
5	Hiroki Kuroda	56	12	Tim Lincecum	42

Curveball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Jacob deGrom	59	65	Franklin Morales	38
2	Felix Hernandez	59	66	Chase Anderson	38
3	Clay Buchholz	58	67	Jered Weaver	37
4	Brandon McCarthy	58	68	Kevin Correia	26
5	David Phelps	58	69	Josh Beckett	20

Slider

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Jordan Zimmermann	59	55	Zack Wheeler	44
2	Brett Anderson	59	56	Miles Mikolas	43
3	Wei-Yin Chen	58	57	Miguel Gonzalez	42
4	Kyle Lohse	58	58	Carlos Martinez	40
5	Corey Kluber	58	59	Yu Darvish	39

Changeup

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Chase Whitley	60	65	Jeff Locke	30
2	Cole Hamels	59	66	Joe Kelly	27
3	Chase Anderson	59	67	Rubby de la Rosa	26
4	Hector Santiago	58	68(t)	Drew Hutchison	20
5	Jered Weaver	57	68(t)	Mike Minor	20

Screwball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	Trevor Bauer	52

Knuckleball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Rating
1	R.A. Dickey	52

Monthly Discussion

As we can see, Cole Hamels takes the top for this month due to the  strength of his overall repertoire.  Hamels was classified as throwing five different pitches in July (Four-Seam, Sinker, Cutter, Curveball, and Changeup) and managed to earn at least 0.1 WAR from all five.  The most valuable pitch overall in July was Ian Kennedy’s Four-Seam Fastball.  The least valuable was Drew Hutchison’s Changeup.  As far as offspeed pitches, Garrett Richards’s 0.5 WAR from his slider lead the way.  The least valuable fastball was Hector Noesi’s cutter.

On our 20-80 scale pitch ratings, the highest rated qualifying pitch was Chase Whitley’s changeup.  The lowest rated pitches were the changeups thrown by Drew Hutchison and Mike Minor, Hector Noesi’s cutter, and Josh Beckett’s curveball.  The highest rated fastball was Drew Hutchison’s four-seam fastball.

Pitch Values – 2014 Season

Four-Seam Fastball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Ian Kennedy	1.9	247	Masahiro Tanaka	-0.4
2	Jose Quintana	1.7	248	Dan Straily	-0.4
3	Phil Hughes	1.6	249	Nick Martinez	-0.4
4	Jordan Zimmermann	1.6	250	Juan Nicasio	-0.4
5	Clayton Kershaw	1.5	251	Marco Estrada	-0.7

Sinker

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Charlie Morton	1.5	236	John Danks	-0.3
2	Felix Hernandez	1.3	237	Wandy Rodriguez	-0.3
3	David Price	1.1	238	Vidal Nuno	-0.3
4	Chris Archer	1.1	239	Nick Tepesch	-0.4
5	Cliff Lee	1.1	240	Andrew Heaney	-0.4

Cutter

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Madison Bumgarner	1.2	110	Dan Haren	-0.2
2	Adam Wainwright	1.2	111	Felipe Paulino	-0.2
3	Corey Kluber	1.2	112	Hector Noesi	-0.3
4	Jarred Cosart	1.2	113	C.J. Wilson	-0.3
5	Josh Collmenter	1.0	114	Brandon McCarthy	-0.5

Splitter

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Masahiro Tanaka	0.8	32	Jake Peavy	-0.1
2	Alex Cobb	0.6	33	Franklin Morales	-0.2
3	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.6	34	Miguel Gonzalez	-0.2
4	Hiroki Kuroda	0.6	35	Danny Salazar	-0.2
5	Tim Hudson	0.4	36	Clay Buchholz	-0.4

Curveball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Sonny Gray	1.1	210	Homer Bailey	-0.2
2	A.J. Burnett	0.9	211	Alfredo Simon	-0.2
3	Brandon McCarthy	0.8	212	Felipe Paulino	-0.3
4	Adam Wainwright	0.7	213	Franklin Morales	-0.3
5	Jose Fernandez	0.6	214	Eric Stults	-0.4

Slider

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Garrett Richards	1.3	179	Roberto Hernandez	-0.2
2	Tyson Ross	1.1	180	Liam Hendriks	-0.2
3	Kyle Lohse	0.8	181	Erasmo Ramirez	-0.3
4	Corey Kluber	0.8	182	Danny Salazar	-0.3
5	Ervin Santana	0.8	183	Travis Wood	-0.4

Changeup

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Felix Hernandez	0.9	232	Wandy Rodriguez	-0.4
2	Stephen Strasburg	0.6	233	Matt Cain	-0.4
3	Cole Hamels	0.6	234	Jordan Zimmermann	-0.5
4	Chris Sale	0.5	235	Drew Hutchison	-0.6
5	Roberto Hernandez	0.5	236	Marco Estrada	-0.6

Screwball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Trevor Bauer	0.1
2	Alfredo Simon	0.0
3	Hector Santiago	0.0
4	Julio Teheran	0.0

Knuckleball

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	R.A. Dickey	1.2
2	C.J. Wilson	0.0

Overall

Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value	Rank	Pitcher	Pitch Value
1	Felix Hernandez	3.5	254	Felipe Paulino	-0.5
2	Adam Wainwright	3.2	255	Juan Nicasio	-0.5
3	Garrett Richards	2.9	256	Nick Martinez	-0.6
4	Corey Kluber	2.9	257	Wandy Rodriguez	-0.8
5	Jose Quintana	2.7	258	Marco Estrada	-1.2

Year-to-Date Discussion

If we look at the year-to-date numbers, AL FIP and MLB WAR leader Felix Hernandez still sits in the top spot.  Current MLB FIP leader Clayton Kershaw ranks ninth.  The least valuable starter has been Marco Estrada.  On a per-pitch basis, the most valuable pitch has been Ian Kennedy’s four-seam fastball.  The most valuable offspeed pitch has been Garrett Richards’s slider.  The least valuable pitch has been Marco Estrada’s four-seam fastball.  The least value offspeed pitch has been Marco Estrada’s changeup.  Needless to say, it’s been a rough year for Marco.  Qualitatively, I feel fairly encouraged by the year-to-date results so far.  The leaderboard is topped by two no-doubt aces, both of whom currently in the top two in their respect leagues in FIP, and Marco Estrada comes in at the bottom after posting the highest FIP among qualified starters so far.  For reference, the top five in the year-to-date overall rankings are currently 1st, 12th, 10th, 2nd, and 9th on the FanGraphs WAR leaderboards respectively.