Matter of Import: The Padres’ Strange Roster

It may have been John Steinbeck who said that everyone in California is from somewhere else. Or it may have been some other dude. In any case, the San Diego Padres’ roster exemplifies the melting pot that is the Golden State. Ten of their 14 core major leaguers (where I’m defining “core” to mean the 14 players that make up the starting lineup, starting rotation, and closer) are trade acquisitions:

C     Derek Norris

1B   Yonder Alonso

2B   Jedd Gyorko

3B   Will Middlebrooks

SS   Alexi Amarista

LF  Justin Upton

CF   Wil Myers

RF   Matt Kemp

S1   Andrew Cashner

S2   Ian Kennedy

S3   Tyson Ross

S4  Odrisamer Despaigne

S5   Brandon Morrow

CL   Joaquin Benoit

The Padres core is as heavily dependent on trade imports as any I’ve ever seen. And while this may be a recipe for cooking up a world championship, it hasn’t been, at least not recently. No world champ in the last ten years has had that many core players (including DHs for the AL teams) acquired by trades:

White Sox (2005)    7

Cardinals (2006)     5

Cardinals (2011)      5

Red Sox (2007)       4

Giants (2012)           3

Phillies (2008)         2

Yankees (2009)       2

Giants (2014)           2

Giants (2010)           1

Red Sox (2013)        1

It’s possible that a couple of home-grown Padres could replace two of their trade imports – Cory Spangenberg might effectively discard Middlebrooks (either by winning the hot corner himself or by pushing Gyorko to third). Free agent pickup Clint Barmes could displace Amarista, one of the few major league players whose job Clint Barmes genuinely threatens. But even if the Padres close the numerical gap, they are still pursuing what is at best an unusual route to victory.

The top four trade-dependent world series winners listed above had established superstars around which to build: Frank Thomas for the White Sox; Albert Pujols for the Cards; and Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and MannybeingManny for the Sawx. (In the White Sox’ case, all the activity indeed produced a championship for the prophetically-monickered Big Hurt, but too late. A foot injury sidelined him at the end of July, and he would never again take a swing in anger for the south-siders.) The Padres roster has no such anchor tenant – their only established home-grown regular is Jedd Gyorko, he of the 2.5 career WAR.

While new general manager A. J. Preller’s hyperactivity has generated much of the hot stove heat this winter (and the best hot stove headline thus far), the wheeling and dealing began before he took over. Alonso, Amarista, and the top three starters all arrived under the previous administration. So while Preller’s moves look like a radical restructuring of the roster, they can also be seen as simply finishing the grim task that his predecessor Josh Byrnes started.

Because this is what happens when prospects degenerate into suspects. (Younger or more sensitive readers may wish to avert their eyes now.) This list goes a long way toward explaining why Preller has been treating his roster like a cat treats a new sofa. Not one of the top ten players on it is with the Padres major league club today; indeed, only the not-yet-immortal Logan Forsythe is even in the majors. Donavan Tate’s tire fire has been well-chronicled – the reboot failed, and he did not play organized ball in 2014. Nor did Simon Castro or James Darnell. Wynn Pelzer pitched for the Camden Riversharks. Cory Luebke’s had two more Tommy John surgeries than you’ll ever have. The rest of that erstwhile top ten are tilling the soil of other teams’ farms, generally without significant yield. (Ok, younger and sensitive readers, you can open your eyes.)

None of this is Preller’s fault (or Byrnes’, for that matter – these were Kevin Towers picks), but this is the hole out of which Preller must dig, and they don’t make many shovels this large. Preller had essentially two choices on assuming the helm of the S.S. Friar: (a) put a motley cast of young low ceiling players and affordable, declining vets on the field and wait for the farm to resprout; or (b) make trades like Jim Bowden on Red Bull and hope to field a competitive team in a division with two perennial playoff contenders.

Preller chose the latter, ill-advisedly in my view, until I read a recent Joe Sheehan newsletter (yes, you should subscribe). Sheehan made a number of points about the Padres current situation; the one relevant here is that the Pads are stuck with a relatively bad TV deal, and thus are unusually dependent on attendance for revenue. Preller needs to get butts in the seats, and that won’t happen if he puts a AAA team on the field, even if he distracts the fans with dollar beer nights and kazoo-playing clowns shooting T-shirts into the sparsely populated upper deck. Sheehan believes that  in order to fund a sustainable scouting and development-based franchise, Preller paradoxically needs to increase the age and cost of the major league roster in the short term.

I don’t like Preller’s odds. Look at the Padres’ core again – there isn’t a single position player on it that doesn’t have either injury or on-base issues, except Upton. The rotation doesn’t have a #1 starter, although perhaps Ross can develop into one. On the other hand, he’s already 27. The Padres play in the same division as the Los Angeles Dodgers, who may bolster their farm system by purchasing Cuba once the messy embargo-lifting details are sorted out. The Giants don’t have the Dodgers’ financial resources, but they remain one of the consistently best run organizations in the game, with two franchise players (Posey and Bumgarner) who are still a long way from old.

But Preller presumably knew the job was dangerous when he took it, and at least he has attacked his task with vigor and focus. Sometimes guys don’t get hurt, and sometimes the batted balls find grass rather than gloves. That’s why they play the games, and San Diego’s 2015 campaign promises to be more interesting than most, whether it’s ultimately successful or not.