John Axford: the Cardinals’ newest reclamation project

On Friday the Cardinals acquired Brewers reliever John Axford for a player to be named later. While dominant in 2010 and 2011, Axford’s lackluster performance since 2012 has many Cardinals fans uninspired by the move. In fact, most of the media attention has centered around his public farewell to Milwaukee fans.

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch offered his own analysis of the deal, calling it a “smart gamble” for the Cardinals. In addition to acknowledging Axford’s well documented HR/FB% struggles, Miklasz highlighted that the former closer has been particularly challenged by an ineffective fastball and poor performance in high-leverage situations.

PITCHf/x data on Axford’s fastball:

Year	Pitches	LD%	OPS	wOBA
2011	838	18.0%	.670	.300
2012	1018	24.1%	.844	.360
2013	636	31.9%	.835	.367

Axford’s performance in high-leverage situations:

Year	IP	LD%	OPS	wOBA
2011	30.1	7.2%	.427	.202
2012	26.2	28.1%	.772	.336
2013	11.1	28.6%	1.094	.450

FanGraphs readers will know that Cardinals GM John Mozeliak and his organization’s pitching staff have developed a reputation in recent years for quietly acquiring mediocre pitchers and helping them reach previously unimagined levels of success on the mound. To the extent that Mozeliak and company have similar designs for Axford, one must ask how they plan to help him reclaim his once dominant form.

The Cardinals may suggest any number of tweaks to Axford’s approach, but smart money has them coaching him to focus on throwing more first-pitch strikes. Jeff Sullivan recently reminded us of the importance of pitching ahead, and its import is surely not lost on manager Mike Matheny and pitching coach Derek Lilliquist. Since 2012, Redbird pitchers rank tops in the majors in terms of throwing first-pitch strikes.

Team	IP	F-Strike%
Reds	2682.1	62.4%
Cardinals	2670	62.4%
Yankees	2649.2	62.4%
Phillies	2663.1	62.3%
Braves	2659	62.2%
Diamondbacks	2674.1	61.8%
Rays	2657.2	60.7%
Tigers	2661	60.7%
Rangers	2656.1	60.7%
Pirates	2665	60.6%

In the same piece, Sullivan also noted that since arriving in St. Louis in July 2012, Edward Mujica has established himself as the league leader in first-pitch strikes, increasing that figure from a pedestrian 60.9% in 2011 to an elite 75.6% in 2013. Doing so has no doubt played a large part in his improved performance in high-leverage innings.

Mujica in 2011 with the Marlins:

Split	IP	OPS	wOBA
Low Leverage	31.1	0.556	0.242
Medium Leverage	29.2	0.656	0.284
High Leverage	15.0	0.781	0.325

Mujica in 2013 with the Cardinals:

Split	IP	OPS	wOBA
Low Leverage	20.2	0.561	0.244
Medium Leverage	16.2	0.518	0.222
High Leverage	20.0	0.529	0.234

While Mujica’s 2011 performance in high-leverage situations was not nearly as poor as Axford’s has been in 2012 and 2013, there exists a similar opportunity for improvement.

Specifically, Axford is getting absolutely crushed when behind in the count this season.

Axford’s 2013 pitching splits:

Split	IP	OPS	wOBA
Through 3 – 0	1.2	0.855	0.440
Through 3 – 1	3.1	1.383	0.555
Through 3 – 2	8	0.948	0.409
Through 2 – 0	8	0.981	0.412
Through 1 – 0	24.1	0.960	0.410

As they did when acquiring Mujica last year, look for the Cardinals to initially deploy Axford into low-leverage situations in which he can regain his confidence and focus on getting ahead in the count. If successful, one would expect the club to move Axford into higher-leverage situations, particularly if Mujica or Trevor Rosenthal wears down or runs into trouble down the stretch.