If the Season Ended Today, Who Is the NL MVP?
This year, the NL MVP will be a highly-contested race among players such as Cody Bellinger, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Justin Turner, Paul Goldschmidt, and the superior all-around player, Joey Votto. If the season ended today (as of August 14, 2017), Votto, an average defender who has the best combination of power and OBP at the plate, should win the NL MVP this year.
According to Baseball Reference, Joey Votto boasts the highest-ranking OBP — of .446 — in the National League, along with having the third-most home runs, with 31. He ranks sixth in slugging at .600, second in OPS+ at 169, and second in runs created with 114. He ranks first in batting runs and batting wins with 48 and 4.5, respectively. Votto may not be the biggest slugger in the league, but there is no other player who hits for as much power while also getting out as infrequently and getting on base as frequently. In fact, he is the only current NL player with a .400 OBP and at least 30 HR. Compared to all other players with at least 20 home runs, nobody has been on base more times without reaching on error than Joey Votto.
Among players with 60 or fewer strikeouts, he ranks first in home runs, second in SLG, first in runs produced, first in WAR, and first in win probability added. Among players with 300 or fewer outs made, Votto is second in home runs, second in OPS+, and second in total bases.
Stanton and Bellinger, the only players in the NL with more home runs than Votto, have a combined 104 strikeouts more than Votto.
According to FanGraphs, Joey ranks first in wOBA (.431), second in wRC+ (165), and first in wRC (111). His 11.5 K% is the sixth-lowest in the league among qualified hitters, and his 47.9 wRAA (weighted runs above average) ranks first, along with his 18.5 BB%. His .287 ISO is fifth in the National League.
Joey has 3.7 Wins Above Average, which ranks third among all players in the National League. His 5.3 WAR in second among all position players, his 4.8 oWAR is second, and his 4.0 WPA is third.
At 33 years old, Joey Votto is having a career year, and if the season were to end now, he should have an MVP season. Hitters who get on base as often and strike out as rarely as Votto while also hitting for as much power are increasingly rare. I think he has a decent shot of winning this year; however, the ludicrous belief that the MVP should be on a playoff team is still rather prevalent, unfortunately. The Reds are not a good team this year, but this does not detract anything from what Votto has done this year. Hopefully, voters will recognize the value that he has brought to the Reds, and the exceptional way in which he has done it.
If Stanton hits close to 60 homeruns then he will be the NL MVP.
If he does, yes it’s very likely he will be, even though I would disagree because I don’t think it should be based off of that one achievement.
I agree. Historically though the player with a significant amount of homeruns is more likely to win the MVP. I actually think that Votto should win the MVP….I just don’t think he really will.
For a fangraphs discussion on NL MVP, lets take out the subjective and look at the WAR leaderboard: Rendon, Goldy, Blacky, Scherzy are all ahead of Votto there. I dont think Votto is a top 5 consideration.
I didn’t base my case off of anything subjective, just his numbers. WAR is not complete, not complete enough to base the entire award off of, because of the many different ways it can be calculated, and the formula has changed many times. Even fangraphs will tell you that WAR is an estimate, it is not accurate to the decimal; thus, it should not be used as a hard and fast rule to exclude players who don’t make the top 5 in WAR (Votto is 7th, just barely over 1 win behind Gio, the leader in NL). WAR is a phenomenal idea that still needs work, mostly because of the massive weight assigned to defensive metrics that are not perfect, yet. Statcast will continue to help with that. However, since you would like to place such weight on this product, he is 4th in rWAR among all players in baseball and 1st in rWAR among position players in the national league. I agree that a player like Blackmon or Rendon should get consideration for the MVP, and wouldn’t necessarily be disappointed if they did, but this was my case for Votto. It is ludicrous to rule him out based solely on fWAR.