Identifying Impact Hitters: Proof of Concept
Earlier this season I set out to build a tool similar in nature to my dSCORE tool, except this one was meant to identify swing-change hitters. Along the course of its construction and early-alpha testing, it morphed into something different, and maybe something more useful. What I ended up with was a tool called cHit (“change Hit”, named for swing changers but really I was just too lazy to bother coming up with a more apt acronym for what the tool actually does). cHit, in its current beta form, aims to identify hitters that tend to profile for “impact production” — simply defined as hit balls hard, and hit them in the air. Other research has identified those as ideal for XBH, so I really didn’t need to reinvent the wheel. Although I’d really like to pull in Statcast data offerings in a more refined form of this tool, simple batted ball data offered here on FanGraphs does the trick nicely.
The inner workings of this tool takes six different data points (BB%, GB%, FB%, Hard%, Soft%, Spd), compares each individual player’s stat against a league midpoint for that stat, then buffs it using a multiplier that serves to normalize each stat based on its importance to ISO. I chose ISO as it’s a pretty clean catch-all for power output.
Now here’s the trick of this tool: it’s not going to identify “good” hitters from “bad” hitters. Quality sticks like Jean Segura, Dee Gordon, Cesar Hernandez, and others show up at the bottom of the results because their game doesn’t base itself on the long ball. They do just fine for themselves hitting softer liners or ground balls and using their legs for production. Frankly, chances are if a player at the bottom of the list has a high Speed component, they’ve got a decent chance of success despite a low cHit. Nuance needs to be accounted for by the user.
Here’s how I use it to identify swing-changers (and/or regression candidates): I pulled in data for previous years, back to 2014. I compared 2017 data to 2016 data (I’ll add in comparisons for previous years in later iterations) and simply checked to see who were cHit risers or fallers. The results were telling — players we have on record as swing changers show up with significant positive gains, and players that endured some significant regression fell.
There’s an unintended, possible third use for this tool: identifying injured hitters. Gregory Polanco, Freddie Freeman, and Matt Holliday all suffered/played through injury this year, and they all fell precipitously in the rankings. I’ll need a larger sample size to see whether injuries and a fall in cHit are related or if that’s just noise.
Data!
| Name | Team | Age | AB | cHit Score | BB% | GB% | FB% | Hard% | Soft% | Spd | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo | Rangers | 23 | 449 | 27.56 | 14.10% | 27.90% | 54.20% | 46.40% | 14.70% | 5.5 | 0.327 |
| J.D. Martinez | – – – | 29 | 432 | 23.52 | 10.80% | 38.30% | 43.20% | 49.00% | 14.00% | 4.7 | 0.387 |
| Matt Carpenter | Cardinals | 31 | 497 | 22.46 | 17.50% | 26.90% | 50.80% | 42.20% | 12.10% | 3.1 | 0.209 |
| Aaron Judge | Yankees | 25 | 542 | 21.56 | 18.70% | 34.90% | 43.20% | 45.30% | 11.20% | 4.8 | 0.343 |
| Lucas Duda | – – – | 31 | 423 | 19.69 | 12.20% | 30.30% | 48.60% | 42.10% | 14.50% | 0.5 | 0.279 |
| Cody Bellinger | Dodgers | 21 | 480 | 19.26 | 11.70% | 35.30% | 47.10% | 43.00% | 14.00% | 5.5 | 0.315 |
| Miguel Sano | Twins | 24 | 424 | 17.73 | 11.20% | 38.90% | 40.50% | 44.80% | 13.50% | 2.9 | 0.243 |
| Jay Bruce | – – – | 30 | 555 | 16.50 | 9.20% | 32.50% | 46.70% | 40.30% | 11.70% | 2.6 | 0.254 |
| Trevor Story | Rockies | 24 | 503 | 16.39 | 8.80% | 33.70% | 47.90% | 40.30% | 14.40% | 4.7 | 0.219 |
| Justin Turner | Dodgers | 32 | 457 | 16.16 | 10.90% | 31.40% | 47.80% | 38.90% | 9.80% | 3.3 | 0.208 |
| Khris Davis | Athletics | 29 | 566 | 15.64 | 11.20% | 38.40% | 42.30% | 42.10% | 13.50% | 3.4 | 0.281 |
| Brandon Belt | Giants | 29 | 382 | 15.38 | 14.60% | 29.70% | 46.90% | 38.40% | 14.00% | 4.2 | 0.228 |
| Nick Castellanos | Tigers | 25 | 614 | 14.94 | 6.20% | 37.30% | 38.20% | 43.40% | 11.50% | 4.6 | 0.218 |
| Eric Thames | Brewers | 30 | 469 | 14.52 | 13.60% | 38.40% | 41.30% | 41.50% | 16.00% | 4.6 | 0.271 |
| Justin Upton | – – – | 29 | 557 | 14.43 | 11.70% | 36.80% | 43.70% | 41.00% | 19.80% | 4 | 0.268 |
| Justin Smoak | Blue Jays | 30 | 560 | 14.38 | 11.50% | 34.30% | 44.50% | 39.40% | 13.10% | 1.7 | 0.259 |
| Wil Myers | Padres | 26 | 567 | 14.32 | 10.80% | 37.50% | 42.90% | 41.40% | 19.50% | 5.3 | 0.220 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | Diamondbacks | 29 | 558 | 14.31 | 14.10% | 46.30% | 34.90% | 44.30% | 11.30% | 5.6 | 0.265 |
| Chris Davis | Orioles | 31 | 456 | 14.28 | 11.60% | 36.70% | 39.80% | 41.50% | 12.80% | 2.7 | 0.208 |
| Kyle Seager | Mariners | 29 | 578 | 13.57 | 8.90% | 31.30% | 51.60% | 35.70% | 13.10% | 2.2 | 0.201 |
| Nelson Cruz | Mariners | 36 | 556 | 13.35 | 10.90% | 40.40% | 41.80% | 40.70% | 14.70% | 1.7 | 0.261 |
| Mike Zunino | Mariners | 26 | 387 | 13.31 | 9.00% | 32.00% | 45.60% | 38.60% | 17.50% | 1.9 | 0.258 |
| Mike Trout | Angels | 25 | 402 | 13.16 | 18.50% | 36.70% | 44.90% | 38.30% | 19.00% | 6.2 | 0.323 |
| Corey Seager | Dodgers | 23 | 539 | 13.08 | 10.90% | 42.10% | 33.10% | 44.00% | 12.90% | 2.7 | 0.184 |
| Logan Morrison | Rays | 29 | 512 | 12.74 | 13.50% | 33.30% | 46.20% | 37.40% | 17.50% | 2.4 | 0.270 |
| Randal Grichuk | Cardinals | 25 | 412 | 12.61 | 5.90% | 35.90% | 42.70% | 40.20% | 18.20% | 5.2 | 0.235 |
| Salvador Perez | Royals | 27 | 471 | 12.50 | 3.40% | 33.30% | 47.00% | 38.10% | 16.50% | 2.4 | 0.227 |
| Michael Conforto | Mets | 24 | 373 | 12.42 | 13.00% | 37.80% | 37.80% | 41.60% | 20.20% | 3.6 | 0.276 |
| Matt Davidson | White Sox | 26 | 414 | 12.19 | 4.30% | 36.20% | 46.50% | 38.20% | 15.80% | 1.8 | 0.232 |
| Mike Napoli | Rangers | 35 | 425 | 12.15 | 10.10% | 33.20% | 52.10% | 35.50% | 21.90% | 2.7 | 0.235 |
| Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | 34 | 469 | 12.03 | 10.20% | 39.80% | 32.90% | 42.50% | 9.90% | 1.1 | 0.149 |
| Brandon Moss | Royals | 33 | 362 | 11.83 | 9.20% | 33.10% | 44.50% | 37.30% | 13.60% | 2.3 | 0.221 |
| Curtis Granderson | – – – | 36 | 449 | 11.69 | 13.50% | 32.60% | 48.80% | 35.30% | 17.60% | 4.8 | 0.241 |
| Ian Kinsler | Tigers | 35 | 551 | 11.64 | 9.00% | 32.90% | 46.50% | 37.00% | 18.70% | 5.6 | 0.176 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | Indians | 34 | 554 | 11.01 | 15.50% | 37.10% | 41.80% | 37.60% | 15.50% | 2.7 | 0.245 |
| Manny Machado | Orioles | 24 | 630 | 10.79 | 7.20% | 42.10% | 42.10% | 39.50% | 18.50% | 3.3 | 0.213 |
| Freddie Freeman | Braves | 27 | 440 | 10.72 | 12.60% | 34.90% | 40.60% | 37.50% | 12.40% | 4.3 | 0.280 |
| Nolan Arenado | Rockies | 26 | 606 | 10.60 | 9.10% | 34.00% | 44.90% | 36.70% | 17.60% | 4.1 | 0.277 |
| Anthony Rendon | Nationals | 27 | 508 | 10.41 | 13.90% | 34.00% | 47.20% | 34.30% | 13.00% | 3.5 | 0.232 |
| Yonder Alonso | – – – | 30 | 451 | 10.34 | 13.10% | 33.90% | 43.20% | 36.00% | 13.20% | 2.4 | 0.235 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Cubs | 24 | 422 | 10.24 | 12.10% | 38.30% | 46.50% | 36.40% | 21.30% | 2.8 | 0.256 |
| Carlos Gomez | Rangers | 31 | 368 | 10.19 | 7.30% | 39.10% | 40.30% | 39.00% | 16.50% | 5 | 0.207 |
| Luis Valbuena | Angels | 31 | 347 | 9.81 | 12.00% | 38.40% | 47.30% | 35.80% | 22.00% | 1.3 | 0.233 |
| Dexter Fowler | Cardinals | 31 | 420 | 9.61 | 12.80% | 39.40% | 38.20% | 38.10% | 12.70% | 5.9 | 0.224 |
| Jed Lowrie | Athletics | 33 | 567 | 9.40 | 11.30% | 29.40% | 43.50% | 34.50% | 12.10% | 2.7 | 0.171 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | Marlins | 27 | 597 | 8.96 | 12.30% | 44.60% | 39.40% | 38.90% | 20.80% | 2.3 | 0.350 |
| Jose Abreu | White Sox | 30 | 621 | 8.95 | 5.20% | 45.30% | 36.40% | 40.50% | 15.80% | 4.4 | 0.248 |
| Josh Donaldson | Blue Jays | 31 | 415 | 8.92 | 15.30% | 41.00% | 42.30% | 36.30% | 17.30% | 1.6 | 0.289 |
| Joey Votto | Reds | 33 | 559 | 8.87 | 19.00% | 39.00% | 38.00% | 36.30% | 10.40% | 2.8 | 0.258 |
| Victor Martinez | Tigers | 38 | 392 | 8.75 | 8.30% | 42.10% | 34.20% | 39.90% | 12.40% | 0.9 | 0.117 |
| Charlie Blackmon | Rockies | 31 | 644 | 8.63 | 9.00% | 40.70% | 37.00% | 39.00% | 17.10% | 6.4 | 0.270 |
| Mitch Moreland | Red Sox | 31 | 508 | 8.43 | 9.90% | 43.40% | 36.20% | 38.90% | 13.50% | 1.7 | 0.197 |
| Scott Schebler | Reds | 26 | 473 | 8.29 | 7.30% | 45.60% | 38.20% | 39.40% | 19.30% | 3.9 | 0.252 |
| Paul DeJong | Cardinals | 23 | 417 | 8.19 | 4.70% | 33.70% | 42.90% | 36.40% | 21.40% | 2.5 | 0.247 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | Nationals | 32 | 524 | 8.18 | 7.60% | 46.40% | 33.70% | 40.50% | 14.10% | 2.2 | 0.269 |
| Mookie Betts | Red Sox | 24 | 628 | 7.76 | 10.80% | 40.40% | 42.80% | 35.70% | 18.20% | 5.5 | 0.194 |
| Rougned Odor | Rangers | 23 | 607 | 7.61 | 4.90% | 41.50% | 42.20% | 36.80% | 18.50% | 5.6 | 0.193 |
| Francisco Lindor | Indians | 23 | 651 | 7.42 | 8.30% | 39.20% | 42.40% | 35.20% | 14.30% | 5.1 | 0.232 |
| Brad Miller | Rays | 27 | 338 | 7.39 | 15.50% | 47.40% | 36.10% | 38.40% | 18.10% | 4.6 | 0.136 |
| Daniel Murphy | Nationals | 32 | 534 | 6.97 | 8.80% | 33.50% | 38.90% | 35.70% | 16.70% | 3.8 | 0.221 |
| Travis Shaw | Brewers | 27 | 538 | 6.87 | 9.90% | 42.50% | 37.60% | 37.10% | 15.80% | 4.5 | 0.240 |
| Jake Lamb | Diamondbacks | 26 | 536 | 6.86 | 13.70% | 41.10% | 38.30% | 35.70% | 12.90% | 4.4 | 0.239 |
| Todd Frazier | – – – | 31 | 474 | 6.75 | 14.40% | 34.20% | 47.50% | 32.20% | 23.20% | 3.1 | 0.215 |
| Yasmani Grandal | Dodgers | 28 | 438 | 6.63 | 8.30% | 43.50% | 40.00% | 36.50% | 17.60% | 1.1 | 0.212 |
| Brian Dozier | Twins | 30 | 617 | 6.60 | 11.10% | 38.40% | 42.60% | 34.10% | 15.90% | 5.2 | 0.227 |
| Adam Duvall | Reds | 28 | 587 | 6.55 | 6.00% | 33.20% | 48.60% | 31.80% | 17.50% | 3.9 | 0.232 |
| Hunter Renfroe | Padres | 25 | 445 | 6.52 | 5.60% | 37.90% | 45.40% | 34.60% | 23.50% | 3.2 | 0.236 |
| Justin Bour | Marlins | 29 | 377 | 6.40 | 11.00% | 43.40% | 33.60% | 38.80% | 19.60% | 1.6 | 0.247 |
| Carlos Correa | Astros | 22 | 422 | 6.33 | 11.00% | 47.90% | 31.70% | 39.50% | 15.00% | 3.2 | 0.235 |
| Marcell Ozuna | Marlins | 26 | 613 | 6.09 | 9.40% | 47.10% | 33.50% | 39.10% | 18.30% | 2.3 | 0.237 |
| Domingo Santana | Brewers | 24 | 525 | 5.85 | 12.00% | 44.90% | 27.70% | 39.70% | 11.70% | 4 | 0.227 |
| Kris Bryant | Cubs | 25 | 549 | 5.83 | 14.30% | 37.70% | 42.40% | 32.80% | 14.80% | 4.4 | 0.242 |
| Gary Sanchez | Yankees | 24 | 471 | 5.47 | 7.60% | 42.30% | 36.60% | 36.90% | 18.60% | 2.6 | 0.253 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | Mets | 31 | 479 | 5.46 | 9.30% | 43.50% | 36.20% | 36.80% | 17.20% | 2.5 | 0.154 |
| Austin Hedges | Padres | 24 | 387 | 5.37 | 5.50% | 36.60% | 45.70% | 33.10% | 22.30% | 2.7 | 0.183 |
| Logan Forsythe | Dodgers | 30 | 361 | 5.33 | 15.70% | 44.00% | 33.10% | 36.60% | 13.20% | 2.8 | 0.102 |
| Yadier Molina | Cardinals | 34 | 501 | 5.25 | 5.20% | 42.20% | 37.40% | 36.40% | 16.50% | 3.9 | 0.166 |
| Bryce Harper | Nationals | 24 | 420 | 5.07 | 13.80% | 40.40% | 37.60% | 34.30% | 13.30% | 3.7 | 0.276 |
| Neil Walker | – – – | 31 | 385 | 5.01 | 12.30% | 36.20% | 41.70% | 32.80% | 17.70% | 2.8 | 0.174 |
| Aaron Altherr | Phillies | 26 | 372 | 5.01 | 7.80% | 43.10% | 37.50% | 36.40% | 20.10% | 5.5 | 0.245 |
| Andrew McCutchen | Pirates | 30 | 570 | 4.90 | 11.20% | 40.70% | 37.40% | 35.20% | 17.50% | 4.3 | 0.207 |
| Eduardo Escobar | Twins | 28 | 457 | 4.86 | 6.60% | 33.70% | 45.30% | 31.40% | 16.00% | 5.1 | 0.195 |
| Anthony Rizzo | Cubs | 27 | 572 | 4.79 | 13.20% | 40.70% | 39.20% | 34.40% | 19.80% | 4.4 | 0.234 |
| Ryan Braun | Brewers | 33 | 380 | 4.73 | 8.90% | 49.20% | 31.90% | 39.00% | 19.20% | 5.3 | 0.218 |
| Kendrys Morales | Blue Jays | 34 | 557 | 4.56 | 7.10% | 48.40% | 33.20% | 37.90% | 15.20% | 1.1 | 0.196 |
| Jose Ramirez | Indians | 24 | 585 | 4.54 | 8.10% | 38.90% | 39.70% | 34.00% | 16.70% | 6 | 0.265 |
| Mike Moustakas | Royals | 28 | 555 | 4.51 | 5.70% | 34.80% | 45.70% | 31.90% | 21.20% | 1.1 | 0.249 |
| Andrew Benintendi | Red Sox | 22 | 573 | 4.50 | 10.60% | 40.10% | 38.40% | 34.30% | 16.60% | 4.5 | 0.154 |
| Jose Bautista | Blue Jays | 36 | 587 | 4.47 | 12.20% | 37.70% | 45.80% | 31.40% | 21.70% | 3.4 | 0.164 |
| Jason Castro | Twins | 30 | 356 | 4.36 | 11.10% | 41.90% | 33.50% | 36.00% | 14.00% | 1.5 | 0.146 |
| Albert Pujols | Angels | 37 | 593 | 4.12 | 5.80% | 43.50% | 38.10% | 35.10% | 15.90% | 2.1 | 0.145 |
| Hanley Ramirez | Red Sox | 33 | 496 | 4.04 | 9.20% | 41.80% | 37.10% | 35.30% | 20.00% | 1.5 | 0.188 |
| Tommy Joseph | Phillies | 25 | 495 | 3.99 | 6.20% | 41.70% | 39.00% | 35.00% | 20.90% | 2.2 | 0.192 |
| Tim Beckham | – – – | 27 | 533 | 3.99 | 6.30% | 48.80% | 29.50% | 39.10% | 15.50% | 4.4 | 0.176 |
| Jonathan Schoop | Orioles | 25 | 622 | 3.90 | 5.20% | 41.90% | 37.20% | 36.10% | 23.00% | 2.2 | 0.211 |
| George Springer | Astros | 27 | 548 | 3.58 | 10.20% | 48.30% | 33.80% | 36.70% | 17.90% | 3.1 | 0.239 |
| Carlos Beltran | Astros | 40 | 467 | 3.54 | 6.50% | 43.10% | 40.40% | 33.70% | 17.50% | 1.8 | 0.152 |
| Alex Bregman | Astros | 23 | 556 | 3.52 | 8.80% | 38.40% | 39.90% | 33.00% | 18.00% | 5.9 | 0.191 |
| Carlos Santana | Indians | 31 | 571 | 3.49 | 13.20% | 40.80% | 39.30% | 33.00% | 18.40% | 4 | 0.196 |
| Eugenio Suarez | Reds | 25 | 534 | 3.33 | 13.30% | 38.90% | 37.10% | 33.80% | 20.70% | 3.1 | 0.200 |
| Scooter Gennett | Reds | 27 | 461 | 3.29 | 6.00% | 41.30% | 37.60% | 34.40% | 17.20% | 4.3 | 0.236 |
| Mark Reynolds | Rockies | 33 | 520 | 3.26 | 11.60% | 42.10% | 36.30% | 34.50% | 19.00% | 2.7 | 0.219 |
| Josh Reddick | Astros | 30 | 477 | 3.23 | 8.00% | 33.60% | 42.30% | 31.10% | 17.20% | 4.8 | 0.170 |
| Mitch Haniger | Mariners | 26 | 369 | 2.97 | 7.60% | 44.00% | 36.70% | 34.70% | 17.70% | 4.3 | 0.209 |
| Ian Happ | Cubs | 22 | 364 | 2.92 | 9.40% | 40.20% | 39.70% | 32.80% | 18.70% | 5.7 | 0.261 |
| Josh Harrison | Pirates | 29 | 486 | 2.90 | 5.20% | 36.50% | 40.80% | 32.40% | 18.70% | 4.9 | 0.160 |
| Keon Broxton | Brewers | 27 | 414 | 2.78 | 8.60% | 45.10% | 34.60% | 35.30% | 17.00% | 7.4 | 0.200 |
| Matt Joyce | Athletics | 32 | 469 | 2.69 | 12.10% | 37.80% | 42.80% | 30.30% | 16.30% | 3.2 | 0.230 |
| Derek Dietrich | Marlins | 27 | 406 | 2.65 | 7.80% | 36.50% | 40.70% | 32.10% | 20.50% | 3.9 | 0.175 |
| Ryon Healy | Athletics | 25 | 576 | 2.56 | 3.80% | 42.80% | 38.20% | 33.90% | 16.50% | 1.4 | 0.181 |
| Evan Longoria | Rays | 31 | 613 | 2.50 | 6.80% | 43.40% | 36.80% | 34.30% | 18.00% | 3.8 | 0.163 |
| Zack Cozart | Reds | 31 | 438 | 2.49 | 12.20% | 38.20% | 42.30% | 30.80% | 19.50% | 5.3 | 0.251 |
| Robinson Cano | Mariners | 34 | 592 | 2.48 | 7.60% | 50.00% | 30.60% | 36.90% | 12.80% | 2 | 0.172 |
| Max Kepler | Twins | 24 | 511 | 2.39 | 8.30% | 42.80% | 39.50% | 32.90% | 18.70% | 4.2 | 0.182 |
| Steven Souza Jr. | Rays | 28 | 523 | 2.22 | 13.60% | 44.60% | 34.30% | 34.10% | 16.50% | 4.8 | 0.220 |
| Michael Taylor | Nationals | 26 | 399 | 2.17 | 6.70% | 42.90% | 36.70% | 34.00% | 18.10% | 5.9 | 0.216 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | Astros | 33 | 529 | 2.12 | 3.90% | 46.20% | 35.20% | 35.10% | 15.90% | 2.8 | 0.187 |
| Corey Dickerson | Rays | 28 | 588 | 1.24 | 5.60% | 41.80% | 35.80% | 33.60% | 18.70% | 4 | 0.207 |
| Whit Merrifield | Royals | 28 | 587 | 1.01 | 4.60% | 37.70% | 40.50% | 30.60% | 15.40% | 6.7 | 0.172 |
| Chris Taylor | Dodgers | 26 | 514 | 0.88 | 8.80% | 41.50% | 35.80% | 32.40% | 15.80% | 6.4 | 0.208 |
| A.J. Pollock | Diamondbacks | 29 | 425 | 0.81 | 7.50% | 44.60% | 32.10% | 35.00% | 19.80% | 7.5 | 0.205 |
| Marwin Gonzalez | Astros | 28 | 455 | 0.71 | 9.50% | 43.90% | 36.20% | 32.70% | 18.60% | 3.2 | 0.226 |
| Yangervis Solarte | Padres | 29 | 466 | 0.62 | 7.20% | 41.60% | 42.10% | 31.10% | 25.20% | 2.4 | 0.161 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | Rangers | 34 | 544 | 0.57 | 12.10% | 48.80% | 26.20% | 36.10% | 12.20% | 4.7 | 0.162 |
| Buster Posey | Giants | 30 | 494 | 0.50 | 10.70% | 43.60% | 33.00% | 33.00% | 14.10% | 2.8 | 0.142 |
| Jedd Gyorko | Cardinals | 28 | 426 | 0.48 | 9.80% | 40.50% | 39.30% | 30.80% | 19.20% | 3.8 | 0.200 |
| Yasiel Puig | Dodgers | 26 | 499 | 0.30 | 11.20% | 48.30% | 35.60% | 32.90% | 18.30% | 4.4 | 0.224 |
| Eddie Rosario | Twins | 25 | 542 | 0.12 | 5.90% | 42.40% | 37.40% | 31.70% | 16.70% | 3.9 | 0.218 |
| J.T. Realmuto | Marlins | 26 | 532 | -0.01 | 6.20% | 47.80% | 34.30% | 33.30% | 14.90% | 5 | 0.173 |
| Jorge Bonifacio | Royals | 24 | 384 | -0.20 | 8.30% | 39.30% | 34.80% | 32.20% | 20.20% | 2.9 | 0.177 |
| Gerardo Parra | Rockies | 30 | 392 | -0.27 | 4.70% | 46.80% | 30.30% | 34.70% | 14.40% | 3 | 0.143 |
| Willson Contreras | Cubs | 25 | 377 | -0.34 | 10.50% | 53.30% | 29.30% | 35.50% | 17.00% | 2.4 | 0.223 |
| Kole Calhoun | Angels | 29 | 569 | -0.37 | 10.90% | 43.90% | 35.00% | 31.80% | 17.00% | 3.7 | 0.148 |
| Robbie Grossman | Twins | 27 | 382 | -0.43 | 14.70% | 40.70% | 34.40% | 30.90% | 16.00% | 3.5 | 0.134 |
| Matt Holliday | Yankees | 37 | 373 | -0.46 | 10.80% | 47.70% | 37.50% | 31.80% | 21.20% | 2.1 | 0.201 |
| Mark Trumbo | Orioles | 31 | 559 | -0.47 | 7.00% | 43.30% | 40.60% | 30.40% | 20.90% | 2.5 | 0.163 |
| Stephen Piscotty | Cardinals | 26 | 341 | -0.80 | 13.00% | 49.20% | 33.20% | 32.70% | 17.90% | 2.7 | 0.132 |
| Tommy Pham | Cardinals | 29 | 444 | -0.86 | 13.40% | 51.70% | 26.10% | 35.50% | 15.40% | 6 | 0.214 |
| Joe Mauer | Twins | 34 | 525 | -0.92 | 11.10% | 51.50% | 23.60% | 36.40% | 12.80% | 2.4 | 0.112 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | Red Sox | 27 | 482 | -0.94 | 8.90% | 49.00% | 32.60% | 33.30% | 17.50% | 4.5 | 0.158 |
| Brandon Crawford | Giants | 30 | 518 | -0.98 | 7.40% | 46.20% | 34.40% | 32.60% | 19.30% | 2.5 | 0.151 |
| Nomar Mazara | Rangers | 22 | 554 | -1.13 | 8.90% | 46.50% | 34.20% | 32.60% | 20.90% | 2.6 | 0.170 |
| Ben Zobrist | Cubs | 36 | 435 | -1.35 | 10.90% | 51.10% | 33.30% | 32.30% | 14.90% | 3.6 | 0.143 |
| Javier Baez | Cubs | 24 | 469 | -1.36 | 5.90% | 48.60% | 36.00% | 32.40% | 21.30% | 5.3 | 0.207 |
| Jorge Polanco | Twins | 23 | 488 | -1.42 | 7.50% | 37.90% | 42.80% | 27.70% | 19.90% | 4.9 | 0.154 |
| Avisail Garcia | White Sox | 26 | 518 | -1.70 | 5.90% | 52.20% | 27.50% | 35.30% | 15.70% | 4.3 | 0.176 |
| Matt Kemp | Braves | 32 | 438 | -1.76 | 5.80% | 48.50% | 28.20% | 34.70% | 17.40% | 1.7 | 0.187 |
| Maikel Franco | Phillies | 24 | 575 | -2.04 | 6.60% | 45.40% | 36.70% | 30.90% | 20.80% | 1.5 | 0.179 |
| Nick Markakis | Braves | 33 | 593 | -2.17 | 10.10% | 48.60% | 29.20% | 33.10% | 15.60% | 1.9 | 0.110 |
| Tucker Barnhart | Reds | 26 | 370 | -2.46 | 9.90% | 46.00% | 27.80% | 33.20% | 16.50% | 3.4 | 0.132 |
| Trey Mancini | Orioles | 25 | 543 | -2.48 | 5.60% | 51.00% | 29.70% | 34.10% | 19.60% | 3.2 | 0.195 |
| Christian Yelich | Marlins | 25 | 602 | -2.51 | 11.50% | 55.40% | 25.20% | 35.20% | 15.90% | 5.2 | 0.156 |
| Lorenzo Cain | Royals | 31 | 584 | -2.79 | 8.40% | 44.40% | 32.90% | 31.10% | 18.70% | 6.5 | 0.140 |
| Josh Bell | Pirates | 24 | 549 | -2.87 | 10.60% | 51.10% | 31.20% | 32.60% | 20.60% | 3.5 | 0.211 |
| Jose Reyes | Mets | 34 | 501 | -3.00 | 8.90% | 37.20% | 43.10% | 26.70% | 26.10% | 7.2 | 0.168 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | Rockies | 31 | 470 | -3.04 | 10.50% | 48.60% | 31.70% | 31.90% | 20.50% | 3.2 | 0.162 |
| Adam Jones | Orioles | 31 | 597 | -3.27 | 4.30% | 44.80% | 34.30% | 30.90% | 20.10% | 2.7 | 0.181 |
| Byron Buxton | Twins | 23 | 462 | -3.57 | 7.40% | 38.70% | 38.00% | 27.60% | 18.20% | 8.2 | 0.160 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | Rays | 27 | 380 | -3.81 | 7.40% | 49.60% | 32.10% | 31.80% | 22.00% | 5.9 | 0.174 |
| Chase Headley | Yankees | 33 | 512 | -3.90 | 10.20% | 43.50% | 31.70% | 30.00% | 17.10% | 4.3 | 0.133 |
| Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox | 24 | 571 | -4.31 | 8.80% | 48.90% | 30.50% | 31.40% | 19.70% | 6.7 | 0.130 |
| Jordy Mercer | Pirates | 30 | 502 | -4.33 | 9.10% | 48.30% | 30.90% | 31.00% | 19.00% | 2.9 | 0.151 |
| Brandon Drury | Diamondbacks | 24 | 445 | -4.44 | 5.80% | 48.80% | 29.40% | 31.70% | 16.60% | 2.4 | 0.180 |
| Alex Gordon | Royals | 33 | 476 | -4.69 | 8.30% | 42.60% | 33.00% | 29.20% | 19.40% | 4.3 | 0.107 |
| Ben Gamel | Mariners | 25 | 509 | -4.84 | 6.50% | 44.90% | 33.30% | 29.40% | 18.70% | 4.9 | 0.138 |
| Hernan Perez | Brewers | 26 | 432 | -4.85 | 4.40% | 48.30% | 33.50% | 30.40% | 21.20% | 5.3 | 0.155 |
| Matt Wieters | Nationals | 31 | 422 | -4.94 | 8.20% | 42.50% | 36.40% | 27.40% | 18.10% | 2 | 0.118 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | 33 | 594 | -5.07 | 10.60% | 44.50% | 33.20% | 28.80% | 20.00% | 6 | 0.163 |
| Odubel Herrera | Phillies | 25 | 526 | -5.10 | 5.50% | 44.10% | 34.70% | 29.40% | 24.40% | 4.3 | 0.171 |
| Freddy Galvis | Phillies | 27 | 608 | -5.11 | 6.80% | 36.70% | 39.20% | 25.50% | 18.10% | 5.3 | 0.127 |
| Elvis Andrus | Rangers | 28 | 643 | -5.13 | 5.50% | 48.50% | 31.50% | 30.50% | 18.70% | 5.7 | 0.174 |
| Danny Valencia | Mariners | 32 | 450 | -5.93 | 8.00% | 47.90% | 31.00% | 29.80% | 20.50% | 3.3 | 0.156 |
| Kevin Pillar | Blue Jays | 28 | 587 | -6.25 | 5.20% | 43.10% | 36.40% | 27.30% | 22.50% | 4.4 | 0.148 |
| Dansby Swanson | Braves | 23 | 488 | -6.35 | 10.70% | 47.40% | 29.40% | 29.30% | 18.00% | 3.2 | 0.092 |
| Jose Altuve | Astros | 27 | 590 | -6.45 | 8.80% | 47.00% | 32.70% | 28.20% | 19.00% | 6.4 | 0.202 |
| Alcides Escobar | Royals | 30 | 599 | -6.47 | 2.40% | 40.80% | 37.40% | 26.80% | 22.80% | 4.3 | 0.107 |
| Andrelton Simmons | Angels | 27 | 589 | -6.62 | 7.30% | 49.50% | 31.50% | 29.30% | 20.60% | 5 | 0.143 |
| Didi Gregorius | Yankees | 27 | 534 | -6.91 | 4.40% | 36.20% | 43.80% | 23.10% | 24.40% | 2.7 | 0.191 |
| Ryan Goins | Blue Jays | 29 | 418 | -6.94 | 6.80% | 50.30% | 34.80% | 27.70% | 19.60% | 2.7 | 0.120 |
| Gregory Polanco | Pirates | 25 | 379 | -7.00 | 6.60% | 42.20% | 37.50% | 25.90% | 22.80% | 3.7 | 0.140 |
| David Peralta | Diamondbacks | 29 | 525 | -7.02 | 7.50% | 55.10% | 26.50% | 31.80% | 21.20% | 4.6 | 0.150 |
| Kolten Wong | Cardinals | 26 | 354 | -7.11 | 10.00% | 48.10% | 31.80% | 28.20% | 20.80% | 5.4 | 0.127 |
| Orlando Arcia | Brewers | 22 | 506 | -7.74 | 6.60% | 51.60% | 28.50% | 30.20% | 22.90% | 4.1 | 0.130 |
| Martin Maldonado | Angels | 30 | 429 | -7.80 | 3.20% | 48.50% | 36.60% | 26.70% | 21.60% | 2.3 | 0.147 |
| Cory Spangenberg | Padres | 26 | 444 | -7.85 | 7.00% | 49.30% | 27.80% | 29.20% | 16.90% | 5 | 0.137 |
| Joe Panik | Giants | 26 | 511 | -7.96 | 8.00% | 44.00% | 34.10% | 26.10% | 20.10% | 4.2 | 0.133 |
| David Freese | Pirates | 34 | 426 | -8.08 | 11.50% | 57.00% | 22.60% | 31.90% | 19.40% | 1 | 0.108 |
| Melky Cabrera | – – – | 32 | 620 | -8.14 | 5.40% | 48.90% | 29.00% | 28.90% | 19.00% | 2.3 | 0.137 |
| Hunter Pence | Giants | 34 | 493 | -8.28 | 7.40% | 57.20% | 29.40% | 29.40% | 18.50% | 3.6 | 0.126 |
| Manuel Margot | Padres | 22 | 487 | -8.30 | 6.60% | 40.50% | 36.30% | 25.40% | 25.90% | 6.1 | 0.146 |
| Trea Turner | Nationals | 24 | 412 | -8.61 | 6.70% | 51.70% | 33.50% | 26.70% | 18.00% | 8.9 | 0.167 |
| Jonathan Villar | Brewers | 26 | 403 | -8.85 | 6.90% | 57.40% | 21.90% | 33.20% | 27.00% | 5.4 | 0.132 |
| Starlin Castro | Yankees | 27 | 443 | -9.19 | 4.90% | 51.80% | 28.00% | 29.20% | 21.80% | 3.5 | 0.153 |
| Denard Span | Giants | 33 | 497 | -9.30 | 7.40% | 45.00% | 33.60% | 25.10% | 18.60% | 5.5 | 0.155 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | Yankees | 33 | 356 | -9.73 | 10.00% | 45.90% | 31.00% | 26.10% | 22.70% | 7.7 | 0.138 |
| Delino DeShields | Rangers | 24 | 376 | -9.93 | 10.00% | 45.10% | 34.80% | 23.90% | 20.10% | 7.1 | 0.098 |
| Adam Frazier | Pirates | 25 | 406 | -9.98 | 7.90% | 47.90% | 26.80% | 27.50% | 17.90% | 5.7 | 0.123 |
| DJ LeMahieu | Rockies | 28 | 609 | -10.42 | 8.70% | 55.60% | 19.70% | 30.60% | 15.40% | 3.9 | 0.099 |
| Yolmer Sanchez | White Sox | 25 | 484 | -10.53 | 6.60% | 44.50% | 33.90% | 24.00% | 19.30% | 5.3 | 0.147 |
| Jason Heyward | Cubs | 27 | 432 | -10.54 | 8.50% | 47.40% | 32.70% | 25.50% | 25.80% | 4.3 | 0.130 |
| Tim Anderson | White Sox | 24 | 587 | -10.66 | 2.10% | 52.70% | 28.00% | 28.30% | 21.30% | 6.2 | 0.145 |
| Jean Segura | Mariners | 27 | 524 | -10.79 | 6.00% | 54.30% | 26.40% | 28.30% | 19.70% | 5.5 | 0.128 |
| Cameron Maybin | – – – | 30 | 395 | -10.88 | 11.30% | 57.70% | 27.90% | 27.40% | 20.10% | 6.9 | 0.137 |
| Dustin Pedroia | Red Sox | 33 | 406 | -10.90 | 10.60% | 48.80% | 28.80% | 25.90% | 20.10% | 2.2 | 0.099 |
| Jose Iglesias | Tigers | 27 | 463 | -10.91 | 4.30% | 50.40% | 26.40% | 28.40% | 23.40% | 4.2 | 0.114 |
| Eric Hosmer | Royals | 27 | 603 | -11.30 | 9.80% | 55.60% | 22.20% | 29.50% | 21.80% | 3.4 | 0.179 |
| Eduardo Nunez | – – – | 30 | 467 | -12.27 | 3.70% | 53.40% | 29.10% | 26.70% | 24.50% | 4.8 | 0.148 |
| Jon Jay | Cubs | 32 | 379 | -12.53 | 8.50% | 47.10% | 23.90% | 25.30% | 11.50% | 5.3 | 0.079 |
| Brandon Phillips | – – – | 36 | 572 | -12.97 | 3.50% | 49.50% | 28.30% | 25.50% | 21.70% | 4.1 | 0.131 |
| Guillermo Heredia | Mariners | 26 | 386 | -15.19 | 6.30% | 47.40% | 34.90% | 20.40% | 23.80% | 2.2 | 0.088 |
| Ender Inciarte | Braves | 26 | 662 | -15.36 | 6.80% | 47.00% | 29.10% | 22.10% | 20.90% | 5.4 | 0.106 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | – – – | 31 | 423 | -16.18 | 9.60% | 53.50% | 27.90% | 22.30% | 20.50% | 3.1 | 0.106 |
| Jose Peraza | Reds | 23 | 487 | -16.45 | 3.90% | 47.10% | 31.30% | 21.40% | 26.60% | 5.8 | 0.066 |
| Cesar Hernandez | Phillies | 27 | 511 | -18.08 | 10.60% | 52.80% | 24.60% | 22.10% | 23.50% | 6 | 0.127 |
| Billy Hamilton | Reds | 26 | 582 | -21.80 | 7.00% | 45.80% | 30.60% | 16.00% | 25.00% | 9 | 0.088 |
| Dee Gordon | Marlins | 29 | 653 | -28.88 | 3.60% | 57.60% | 19.60% | 16.10% | 24.70% | 8.5 | 0.067 |
Okay, so here’s the breakdown. I pulled all 2017 hitters with 400 at-bats or more so I could capture some significant hitters that didn’t have qualifying numbers of ABs due to injury. Ball-bludgeon extraordinaire Joey Gallo is a pretty solid name to have heading up this list, as he’s pretty much the human definition of what this tool is trying to identify. JD Martinez, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Miguel Sano, Trevor Story, and Justin Turner all in the top 10 is pretty much all the proof-of-concept I needed.
Interesting notes:
Brandon Belt at 12 — Someone needs to tell the Giants to trade him to literally any other team, stat.
Giancarlo Stanton at 46 — Surprisingly, the MVP fell off from his stats in 2016. His grounders and soft contact rose by 3 or more percentage points, and shaved off the equivalent from hard and fly balls. His output was fueled by adding almost 200 ABs to his season — he could actually get better if he can stay healthy and add those hard flies back in!
Francisco Lindor at 58 — The interesting part of this is even though Lindor is still a decent way down the list, he actually was the biggest gainer from last season to this, adding 9.52 points to his cHit. We knew he was gunning for flies from the outset of the season, and it looks like his mission was accomplished.
Mike Moustakas at 87 — Frankly, being bookended by Jose Ramirez and Andrew Benintendi should, in a vacuum, should be great company. But this is a prime example of how cHit requires users to not take the numbers at face value. Ramirez and Benintendi aren’t slug-first hitters like Moose. They’ve got significantly better Speed scores, plus aren’t as prone to soft contact. I’d be very wary of Moose regressing, as he seems to rely on sneaking some less-than ideal homers over fences. If he goes to San Francisco I could see his value crater (see Belt, Brandon).
Eric Hosmer at 206 — Nope, negative, pass, I’m trying to sign quality hitters here <— Suggested responses for GMs when approached this offseason by Scott Boras on behalf of Hosmer.
Final Notes:
- Batted-ball distribution data is noticeably absent. In one of my iterations I added in those stats, and found that they actually regressed the accuracy of the formula. It doesn’t matter where you hit the ball, as long as you hit it hard.
- Medium% and LD% are noisy stats. They also regressed the formula.
- I may look to replace BB% in future iterations. For now though, it does a decent job of capturing plate discipline and selectivity.
- K% doesn’t seem to have much of an impact on cHit (see Gallo, Joey).
- R-squared numbers over the last four years of data hold pretty steady between .65 and .75, which is really encouraging. Also, the bigger the pool of data per year (number of batters analyzed), the higher R-squared goes; which is ultimately the most encouraging result of this whole endeavor.
Input is greatly appreciated! I’m not a mathematician in any stretch of the imagination, so if there’s a better way of going about this I’d love to hear it. I’ll do a writeup about my swing-change findings at a later date.
It’s a really nice idea and a lot data to digest. Not sure how you’ve weighted each category but it seems like the FB% and Spd score are a little wacky. An elevated FB% isn’t necessarily a positive for all players. Look at Kyle Seager and Carpenter, both over 50% in 2017 but took steps back from previous years. There’s a limit and every player is different. Also I’m not sure a high speed score helps Gallo that much with his high FB%. A three true outcome player like Gallo isn’t going to benefit from a high speed score as much as other players.
Again, I don’t know how you’ve weighted them or your equation, I’m just observing from the outside
Nice article! One note on your blurb about Stanton: while his ground ball and weak contact rates went up a bit, his strikeout rate also decreased significantly (over 6%, from 29.8% to 23.6%). Without a large change to his walk rate, this increases his volume of fly balls despite the decrease on a rate basis. We can’t know if it’s possible for him to maintain this lower strikeout rate while simultaneously raising his hard hit and ground ball rates to previous levels.