How to Make Yourself Interesting

Allow me to start this post off with a couple of charts without any context about the player we are talking about.

Let’s talk about this player for a second. His name is not of consequence, yet. This player has fluctuated from being an above-average producer of runs and slightly-below-average producer of runs for close to 10 years now. This means he’s been around a long time, so his profile as a hitter is solidified; he has a reputation. Something funny has happened in 2016 and 2017 as evidenced by the LARGE upward line. That’s good! Can you guess who this player is? No? Come on, one guess. Okay, fine. It’s Mark Reynolds! Yes, that Mark Reynolds!

Mark Reynolds once hit 44 home runs. Do you remember that? When I said, he had a reputation, I meant to say that he’s well-known for the three true outcomes: walks, strikeouts, and home runs. Not much else. He’s a first baseman, which means his defensive value is minimal at best. So basically, his value is his offense. He’s signed for $1.5 million this year and is currently a top-10 first baseman in the MLB by fWAR. He’s top-8 by wRC+, and top-4 by wOBA. He’s already exceeded the value of his contract. The obvious caveat here: it’s May 9^th. The other obvious caveat is he plays for the Rockies now, which means he gets to play 81 games (give or take) at Coors Field.

I don’t know if he can sustain this. I too see the name Mark Reynolds and think, 30% K rate, with a decent amount of power. The thing is, he’s not striking out in 30% of his plate appearances. He’s not even striking out in 25% of his plate appearances. You want to know how often he’s striking out? After today’s day game with the Cubs, he’s striking out only 21.1% of the time. That’s, dare I say, below league average (League wide K% currently is 21.5%). I’m going to throw some more numbers together to try and articulate an idea: Mark Reynolds is up to something.

This doesn’t seem to be a one-year fluke. Reynolds is a slightly different player than he was two years ago. His K% has been on the decline since 2015, when it was 28%. Last year it was 25.4% and obviously now it’s 21.1%. So let’s go to his plate discipline to see what’s changed.

Looking at his O-Swing% and PITCHf/x O-Swing%, there isn’t a huge difference. They both hover in and around his rate of 26-27%, though PITCHf/x has him at 29.5%. The real difference is in his Z-Swing%, where he has decreased his percentage over the last two years. In 2015, it was around his career norm of 70% by Baseball Info Solutions and 67% by PITCHf/x. The last two years: 69.4% and 66.2% respectively by Baseball Info Solutions, 66.2% and 64.9% respectively by PITCHf/x. He seems to be pickier in the zone overall and there is a tangible result.

His Z-Contact% career average as calculated by PITCHf/x and Baseball Info Solutions is 74.3% and 74%, respectively. In 2015, he made contact with pitches in the zone 80% of the time by both systems. Last year? 81.9% by Baseball Info Solutions and 84.6% by PITCHf/x. This year? 85.4% and 84%. He’s making more contact overall for the last two years, as it’s been in the 70% range rather than the 60% range. His SwStr% has been decreasing too! It’s been below 13% the last two years, where his career average is 15.7%. This is a different Mark Reynolds.

Maybe Reynolds is trying to take more pitches in the zone so he can focus in on his best pitch. The power is there — his ISO is .339, with 12 home runs thus far. Probably not sustainable, but 30 home runs can be reached even with a return to the average.

About that park factor, though. He really hasn’t hit much differently at Coors versus away from Coors.