Historical Relevance of Elite Rookie Seasons

As of this writing, Tyler Naquin is running a wRC+ of 171 through 196 plate appearances. While still statistically a fairly small sample size, it’s enough to be a qualified rookie season. If the season were over today, Naquin’s 171 would be the fourth-highest for a qualified rookie ever.

Now there’s a lot of discussion about Naquin’s impending regression. Even though Naquin has always had a high BABIP profile (over .350 through minors), his current mark of .417 is clearly unsustainable. It’s also hard to see someone continuing to hit home runs at over four times the frequency he did in the minors.

I’m not going to debate what his regression might look like, or where his true-talent level might be. I am just going to look at the fact that he has had an incredible rookie season so far. Even with some significant regressions in the second half, Naquin is well set up to put up some pretty gaudy rookie numbers. So, I decided to take a look at some of the other best rookie seasons ever, and how these players fared in the rest of their careers. Since 1901, there have been 30 qualified rookie hitters (if you include Naquin) to post a wRC+ of at least 150, a mark that even with some significant regression, Naquin should have a chance to exceed.

#	Name	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
1	Willie McCovey	Giants	52	219	13	32	38	2	10%	16%	0.302	0.379	0.354	0.429	0.656	0.467	185	0.5	24	-1.8	3.1
2	Frank Thomas	White Sox	60	240	7	39	31	0	18%	23%	0.199	0.421	0.33	0.454	0.529	0.437	178	-0.5	20.7	-5.7	2.4
3	Joe Jackson	– – –	177	768	8	144	100	45	9%		0.173		0.391	0.449	0.564	0.476	178	2	76.2	-3	10.2
4	Tyler Naquin	Indians	63	196	12	32	29	3	9%	29%	0.313	0.417	0.324	0.387	0.636	0.426	171	0.8	17.6	-2.5	2.2
5	Bret Barberie	Expos	57	162	2	16	18	0	12%	14%	0.162	0.4	0.353	0.435	0.515	0.418	169	0	12.6	1	2
6	Bernie Carbo	Reds	129	470	21	54	63	10	20%	17%	0.239	0.341	0.307	0.451	0.546	0.438	168	0.6	40.5	-3.2	5.6
7	Jose Abreu	White Sox	145	622	36	80	107	3	8%	21%	0.264	0.356	0.317	0.383	0.581	0.411	167	-2.9	42.7	-14.4	5.3
8	Bill Skowron	Yankees	87	237	7	37	41	2	8%	8%	0.237	0.344	0.34	0.392	0.577	0.429	166	0.2	18.5	-5.6	2.1
9	Benny Kauff	– – –	159	681	8	124	97	76	11%	8%	0.162	0.4	0.368	0.447	0.529	0.463	166	12.4	65.6	1.6	9.9
10	Fred Lynn	Red Sox	160	656	23	108	115	10	10%	15%	0.238	0.37	0.338	0.408	0.576	0.434	166	0.2	48.3	4.8	7.9
11	Rico Carty	Braves	135	507	22	72	88	1	9%	16%	0.223	0.357	0.328	0.387	0.551	0.408	164	-0.4	36.3	-9	4.9
12	Bill Salkeld	Pirates	95	317	15	45	52	2	16%	5%	0.236	0.288	0.311	0.42	0.547	0.451	161	0.2	23.2	2.7	3.9
13	Yasiel Puig	Dodgers	104	432	19	66	42	11	8%	23%	0.215	0.383	0.319	0.391	0.534	0.398	160	-3	26.2	-0.7	4.1
14	Buck Herzog	Giants	64	213	0	38	11	16	17%		0.063		0.3	0.448	0.363	0.405	160	1.1	14	-0.2	2.5
15	Dick Allen	Phillies	172	733	29	131	93	3	9%	20%	0.236	0.367	0.317	0.378	0.553	0.401	160	-0.7	48.9	1.6	8.3
16	Carlton Fisk	Red Sox	147	568	24	81	67	5	9%	17%	0.239	0.32	0.292	0.363	0.531	0.401	160	0.4	34.2	11.7	7.1
17	Albert Pujols	Cardinals	161	676	37	112	130	1	10%	14%	0.281	0.336	0.329	0.403	0.61	0.423	159	-1.1	50.7	0.9	7.2
18	Stan Musial	Cardinals	152	585	11	95	79	7	11%	4%	0.173	0.327	0.325	0.402	0.498	0.42	158	1.1	38.6	1.7	6.1
19	Al Bumbry	Orioles	119	406	7	78	34	24	8%	12%	0.163	0.375	0.338	0.398	0.501	0.403	158	0.8	27.3	-5.5	3.8
20	Mitchell Page	Athletics	145	592	21	85	75	42	13%	16%	0.214	0.343	0.307	0.405	0.521	0.404	157	6.9	46.9	-6	6.2
21	Brett Lawrie	Blue Jays	43	171	9	26	25	7	9%	18%	0.287	0.318	0.293	0.373	0.58	0.407	157	2.2	13.4	5.5	2.6
22	Ted Williams	Red Sox	149	677	31	131	145	2	16%	10%	0.281	0.328	0.327	0.436	0.609	0.464	156	-0.4	52.7	-4.4	7.1
23	Johnny Mize	Cardinals	126	469	19	76	93	1	11%	7%	0.249	0.322	0.329	0.402	0.577	0.436	156	0	33.5	-2.5	4.3
24	Ryan Braun	Brewers	113	492	34	91	97	15	6%	23%	0.31	0.361	0.324	0.37	0.634	0.421	155	1.3	36.3	-26.9	2.5
25	Mike Trout	Angels	179	774	35	149	99	53	10%	22%	0.226	0.358	0.306	0.379	0.532	0.389	153	15.9	63.9	15.5	11
26	Erubiel Durazo	D-backs	52	185	11	31	30	1	14%	23%	0.265	0.385	0.329	0.422	0.594	0.43	151	-0.2	12.5	-1.4	1.6
27	Kal Daniels	Reds	74	207	6	34	23	15	11%	15%	0.199	0.356	0.32	0.398	0.519	0.402	151	2.2	14.3	-1.8	2
28	Miguel Sano	Twins	80	335	18	46	52	1	16%	36%	0.262	0.396	0.269	0.385	0.53	0.392	151	-4.8	14.8	-6.6	2
29	Mark McGwire	Athletics	169	699	52	107	127	1	11%	21%	0.316	0.285	0.28	0.361	0.597	0.4	150	-0.9	44	-18.5	4.8
30	Fred Snodgrass	Giants	157	579	3	81	51	44	14%	11%	0.111	0.365	0.317	0.431	0.428	0.421	150	3.3	36.6	-3.9	5.9

It’s easy to see that Naquin puts himself in some impressive company on this list. I wanted to see how likely it is for an elite rookie season to lead to a successful MLB career. Next is a list these players including their career WAR and wRC+ compared to what they did as rookies.

#	Name	Team	G	PA	wRC+	WAR	Career WAR	Career wRC+	Seasons
1	Willie McCovey	Giants	52	219	185	3.1	67.4	145	22
2	Frank Thomas	White Sox	60	240	178	2.4	72	154	18
3	Joe Jackson	– – –	177	768	178	10.2	60.5	165	13
4	Bret Barberie	Expos	57	162	169	2	7.5	99	6
5	Bernie Carbo	Reds	129	470	168	5.6	20.6	128	12
6	Jose Abreu	White Sox	145	622	167	5.3	8	134	3
7	Bill Skowron	Yankees	87	237	166	2.1	28.6	118	14
8	Benny Kauff	– – –	159	681	166	9.9	34.1	149	8
9	Fred Lynn	Red Sox	160	656	166	7.9	49.2	129	17
10	Rico Carty	Braves	135	507	164	4.9	34.7	132	17
11	Bill Salkeld	Pirates	95	317	161	3.9	8.7	137	6
12	Yasiel Puig	Dodgers	104	432	160	4.1	11.3	134	4
13	Buck Herzog	Giants	64	213	160	2.5	28.6	97	13
14	Dick Allen	Phillies	172	733	160	8.3	61.3	155	15
15	Carlton Fisk	Red Sox	147	568	160	7.1	68.3	117	25
16	Albert Pujols	Cardinals	161	676	159	7.2	91.1	154	16
17	Stan Musial	Cardinals	152	585	158	6.1	126.8	158	23
18	Al Bumbry	Orioles	119	406	158	3.8	22.6	106	14
19	Mitchell Page	Athletics	145	592	157	6.2	7.1	118	8
20	Brett Lawrie	Blue Jays	43	171	157	2.6	9.7	100	6
21	Ted Williams	Red Sox	149	677	156	7.1	130.4	188	19
22	Johnny Mize	Cardinals	126	469	156	4.3	68.6	157	18
23	Ryan Braun	Brewers	113	492	155	2.5	36.9	141	10
24	Mike Trout	Angels	179	774	153	11	44.4	167	5
25	Erubiel Durazo	Diamondbacks	52	185	151	1.6	9.2	124	7
26	Kal Daniels	Reds	74	207	151	2	16.9	140	7
27	Miguel Sano	Twins	80	335	151	2	2.9	132	2
28	Mark McGwire	Athletics	169	699	150	4.8	66.3	157	16
29	Fred Snodgrass	Giants	157	579	150	5.9	19.7	114	8

Finally, I have broken these careers down into tiers, just as a quick visual. These tiers are loosely based mostly on career WAR. I am not considering controversies surrounding these players (e.g. McGwire, Jackson), just what they accomplished at the plate.

Tier 1 – “First Ballot” Hall of Fame Talent – 5 Players

Name	wRC+	WAR	Career WAR	Career wRC+	Seasons
Ted Williams	156	7.1	130.4	188	19
Stan Musial	158	6.1	126.8	158	23
Albert Pujols	159	7.2	91.1	154	16
Joe Jackson	178	10.2	60.5	165	13
Mike Trout	153	11	44.4	167	5

Not much to say here, you all know these names. Yes, I put Trout here already; I don’t think anyone is arguing how good a player he is at this point. Jackson was placed here because, again, I’m just looking at how good a player these players individually were.

Tier 2 – “Fringe” Hall of Fame Talent – 6 Players

Name	wRC+	WAR	Career WAR	Career wRC+	Seasons
Willie McCovey	185	3.1	67.4	145	22
Frank Thomas	178	2.4	72	154	18
Dick Allen	160	8.3	61.3	155	15
Carlton Fisk	160	7.1	68.3	117	25
Johnny Mize	156	4.3	68.6	157	18
Mark McGwire	150	4.8	66.3	157	16

Fringe HOF was just what I named this group, based on career WAR. Obviously some of these players are much less “fringe” than others when it comes to actual voting, but regardless, all of these players had long careers of being excellent hitters.

Tier 3 – Starter Talent – 5 Players

Name	wRC+	WAR	Career WAR	Career wRC+	Seasons
Benny Kauff	166	9.9	34.1	149	8
Fred Lynn	166	7.9	49.2	129	17
Rico Carty	164	4.9	34.7	132	17
Bill Skowron	166	2.1	28.6	118	14
Buck Herzog	160	2.5	28.6	97	13

Group of players with great, but not generally HOF-quality careers. You’ll notice here that Herzog didn’t actually maintain above-average offense throughout his career, but he was able to find success as a great defensive player.

Tier 4 – Successful MLB careers – 4 Players

Name	wRC+	WAR	Career WAR	Career wRC+	Seasons
Bernie Carbo	168	5.6	20.6	128	12
Al Bumbry	158	3.8	22.6	106	14
Kal Daniels	151	2	16.9	140	7
Fred Snodgrass	150	5.9	19.7	114	8

The difference between a successful MLB career and a bust is extremely relative. I put the cutoff at 10 WAR, which seems to me like a mark you would expect to be able to reach after putting up one of the greatest rookie seasons ever.

Tier 5 – Relative Bust – 4 Players

Name	wRC+	WAR	Career WAR	Career wRC+	Seasons
Erubiel Durazo	151	1.6	9.2	124	7
Mitchell Page	157	6.2	7.1	118	8
Bill Salkeld	161	3.9	8.7	137	6
Bret Barberie	169	2	7.5	99	6

None of these players lived up to what they produced in their rookie seasons. However, you do see that this is still a group with generally good offensive production throughout their careers.

Jury’s Out –  5 Players

Name	wRC+	WAR	Career WAR	Career wRC+	Seasons
Miguel Sano	151	2	2.9	132	2
Ryan Braun	155	2.5	36.9	141	10
Brett Lawrie	157	2.6	9.7	100	6
Yasiel Puig	160	4.1	11.3	134	4
Jose Abreu	167	5.3	8	134	3

And finally, we have a few active players where it’s too early to call what class of career they are going to have.

So what does this all mean for Tyler Naquin? Well, probably not as much as an irrational Cleveland fan such as myself might hope. There is no ignoring though that there is an exceptional success rate for players who hit this well as a rookie. 75% were able to run career WAR totals over 20, and about half of those made it to 60!

Now there are going to be a lot of people who argue that Naquin’s minor-league track record might suggest that he is still likely to end up somewhere in that bottom 25% group. I don’t know how good Naquin really is, or how good he might be. I do know that he has put himself in a group with some impressive names, and I am quite excited to see how his career plays out.