In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

 

The 2008 Seattle Mariners 

OWAR: 41.0     OWS: 251     OPW%: .519     (84-78)

AWAR: 21.3      AWS: 183     APW%: .377     (61-101)

WARdiff: 19.7                        WSdiff: 68  

The “Original” 2008 Mariners finished a few percentage points behind the Athletics for the AL West crown but out-gunned the “Actual” M’s by a 23-game margin. Alex Rodriguez (.302/35/103) paced the Junior Circuit with a .573 SLG. Raul Ibanez (.293/23/110) established career-highs with 186 base hits and 43 two-base knocks.  Ichiro Suzuki nabbed 43 bags in 47 attempts and batted .310, topping the League with 213 safeties. Jose Lopez socked 41 doubles and 17 long balls while posting personal-bests with 191 hits and a .297 BA. Adrian Beltre clubbed 25 four-baggers and earned his second Gold Glove Award for the “Actuals”.

Ken Griffey Jr. ranked seventh in the center field charts according to “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Mariners chronicled in the “NBJHBA” top 100 ratings include Alex Rodriguez (17^th-SS) and Omar Vizquel (61^st-SS).

 

  Original 2008 Mariners                           Actual 2008 Mariners

 

STARTING LINEUP	POS	OWAR	OWS	STARTING LINEUP	POS	AWAR	AWS
Raul Ibanez	LF	1.77	19.64	Raul Ibanez	LF	1.77	19.64
Ichiro Suzuki	CF/RF	3.36	19.48	Jeremy Reed	CF	-0.18	4.19
Shin-Soo Choo	RF	2.86	14.97	Ichiro Suzuki	RF	3.36	19.48
Ken Griffey, Jr.	DH/RF	0	13.1	Jose Vidro	DH	-1.34	1.53
Bryan LaHair	1B	-0.42	1.66	Richie Sexson	1B	0.06	4.43
Jose Lopez	2B	2.73	18.55	Jose Lopez	2B	2.73	18.55
Asdrubal Cabrera	SS/2B	1.85	11.92	Yuniesky Betancourt	SS	0.2	8.69
Alex Rodriguez	3B	4.99	27.21	Adrian Beltre	3B	2.45	16.09
Jason Varitek	C	0.7	8.74	Kenji Johjima	C	-0.01	6.1
BENCH	POS	AWAR	AWS	BENCH	POS	AWAR	AWS
David Ortiz	DH	1.37	12.01	Willie Bloomquist	CF	0.15	3.92
Ramon Vazquez	3B	1.05	9.63	Miguel Cairo	1B	-0.64	3.17
Adam Jones	CF	1	9.12	Jeff Clement	C	-0.36	2.88
Yuniesky Betancourt	SS	0.2	8.69	Jamie Burke	C	-0.16	1.89
Greg Dobbs	3B	0.7	7.22	Bryan LaHair	1B	-0.42	1.66
Kenji Johjima	C	-0.01	6.1	Luis Valbuena	2B	0.15	1.19
Omar Vizquel	SS	-0.22	3.94	Wladimir Balentien	RF	-1.18	1.09
Willie Bloomquist	CF	0.15	3.92	Greg Norton	DH	0.21	0.99
Jeff Clement	C	-0.36	2.88	Brad Wilkerson	RF	-0.13	0.6
Luis Valbuena	2B	0.15	1.19	Rob Johnson	C	-0.3	0.35
Wladimir Balentien	RF	-1.18	1.09	Matt Tuiasosopo	3B	-0.28	0.32
Chris Snelling	–	0.16	0.58	Mike Morse	RF	0.03	0.28
Rob Johnson	C	-0.3	0.35	Tug Hulett	DH	-0.2	0.16
T. J. Bohn	LF	0.05	0.34	Charlton Jimerson	LF	-0.03	0
Matt Tuiasosopo	3B	-0.28	0.32
Jose L. Cruz	LF	-0.34	0.17

Derek Lowe and Gil Meche compiled identical records (14-11) while starting 34 games apiece. “King” Felix Hernandez contributed nine victories with an ERA of 3.45 in his third full season in the Major Leagues. Brian Fuentes accrued 30 saves while fashioning an ERA of 2.73 along with a 1.101 WHIP. “T-Rex” whiffed 82 batsmen in 62.2 innings pitched.

  Original 2008 Mariners                        Actual 2008 Mariners 

ROTATION	POS	OWAR	OWS	ROTATION	POS	AWAR	AWS
Derek Lowe	SP	4.16	15.69	Felix Hernandez	SP	3.99	13.45
Gil Meche	SP	3.7	13.81	Ryan Rowland-Smith	SP	2.1	8.39
Felix Hernandez	SP	3.99	13.45	Erik Bedard	SP	1.24	5.4
Ryan Rowland-Smith	SP	2.1	8.39	Jarrod Washburn	SP	0.7	5.11
Joel Pineiro	SP	-0.39	3.75	R. A. Dickey	SP	0.2	3.28
BULLPEN	POS	OWAR	OWS	BULLPEN	POS	OWAR	OWS
Brian Fuentes	RP	1.88	11.8	Brandon Morrow	SW	1.09	7.19
Matt Thornton	RP	1.95	9.41	Roy Corcoran	RP	0.71	6.7
Ryan Franklin	RP	0.52	7.47	J. J. Putz	RP	0.4	5.24
Brandon Morrow	SW	1.09	7.19	Sean Green	RP	-0.56	3.59
George Sherrill	RP	0.03	6.43	Arthur Rhodes	RP	0.48	3.03
Aquilino Lopez	RP	0.93	6.13	Cesar Jimenez	RP	0.66	2.28
Damaso Marte	RP	0.52	6.02	Randy Messenger	RP	0.19	0.84
J. J. Putz	RP	0.4	5.24	Mark Lowe	RP	-1.11	0.68
Cha-Seung Baek	SP	0.56	3.67	Cha-Seung Baek	SW	-0.11	0.56
Mike Hampton	SP	0.34	2.32	Jake Woods	RP	-0.3	0.05
Cesar Jimenez	RP	0.66	2.28	Miguel Batista	SP	-1.89	0
Ron Villone	RP	-0.13	1.94	Ryan Feierabend	SP	-0.88	0
Rafael Soriano	RP	0.28	1.78	Eric O’Flaherty	RP	-1.07	0
Shawn Estes	SP	0.03	0.88	Carlos Silva	SP	-1.91	0
Mark Lowe	RP	-1.11	0.68	Justin Thomas	RP	-0.07	0
Scott Patterson	RP	0.22	0.43	Jared Wells	RP	-0.31	0
Kameron Mickolio	RP	-0.09	0.08
Ryan Feierabend	SP	-0.88	0
Eric O’Flaherty	RP	-1.07	0
Justin Thomas	RP	-0.07	0

 

Notable Transactions

Alex Rodriguez 

October 30, 2000: Granted Free Agency.

January 26, 2001: Signed as a Free Agent with the Texas Rangers.

February 16, 2004: Traded by the Texas Rangers with cash to the New York Yankees for a player to be named later and Alfonso Soriano. The New York Yankees sent Joaquin Arias (April 23, 2004) to the Texas Rangers to complete the trade.

October 29, 2007: Granted Free Agency.

December 13, 2007: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees. 

Derek Lowe

July 31, 1997: Traded by the Seattle Mariners with Jason Varitek to the Boston Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb.

November 1, 2004: Granted Free Agency.

January 11, 2005: Signed as a Free Agent with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Shin-Soo Choo

July 26, 2006: Traded by the Seattle Mariners with a player to be named later to the Cleveland Indians for Ben Broussard and cash. The Seattle Mariners sent Shawn Nottingham (minors) (August 24, 2006) to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade. 

Gil Meche

October 31, 2006: Granted Free Agency.

December 13, 2006: Signed as a Free Agent with the Kansas City Royals.

Ken Griffey Jr. 

February 10, 2000: Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Cincinnati Reds for Jake Meyer (minors), Mike Cameron, Antonio Perez and Brett Tomko. 

David Ortiz 

September 13, 1996: the Seattle Mariners sent David Ortiz to the Minnesota Twins to complete an earlier deal made on August 29, 1996. August 29, 1996: The Seattle Mariners sent a player to be named later to the Minnesota Twins for Dave Hollins.

December 16, 2002: Released by the Minnesota Twins.

January 22, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the Boston Red Sox.

Honorable Mention

The 1999 Seattle Mariners 

OWAR: 46.4     OWS: 296     OPW%: .549     (89-73)

AWAR: 33.8      AWS: 237     APW%: .488     (79-83)

WARdiff: 12.6                        WSdiff: 59  

The “Original” 1999 Mariners secured the American League Western Division title by six games over the Rangers. The “Actuals” placed third, sixteen games behind Texas. Ken Griffey Jr. (.285/48/134) paced the circuit in home runs, tallied 123 runs and collected his tenth Gold Glove Award. Edgar Martinez (.337/24/86) topped the League with a .447 OBP. Alex Rodriguez (.285/42/111) swiped 21 bags and scored 110 runs. Slick-fielding shortstop Omar Vizquel posted career-highs in batting average (.333), runs scored (112) and base hits (191) while stealing successfully on 42 of 51 attempts. Tino Martinez clubbed 28 four-baggers and plated 105 baserunners. Bret Boone tagged 38 doubles and surpassed the century mark in runs. Jason Varitek drilled 39 two-base knocks and swatted 20 big-flies during his first full campaign.

Mike Hampton (22-4, 2.90) placed runner-up in the Cy Young Award balloting. Derek Lowe notched 15 saves in 74 relief appearances. Dave Burba contributed a 15-9 record and set personal-bests with 34 starts and 220 innings pitched.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1993 Angels

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive