In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 2004 Kansas City Royals 

OWAR: 40.4     OWS: 264     OPW%: .483     (78-84)

AWAR: 16.8      AWS: 173     APW%: .358     (58-104)

WARdiff: 23.6                        WSdiff: 91  

The “Original” 2004 Royals placed third in the American League Central division, 12 games behind the Indians. The “Actual” 2004 Royals lost 104 contests. Carlos Beltran (.267/38/104) enjoyed a monster campaign as he narrowly missed the 40/40 club. The Royals center fielder compiled 121 tallies and swiped 42 bags in 45 attempts. However he only earned 11.4 Win Shares for the “Actual” Royals (vs. 29 WS for the “Originals) due to a mid-season trade to the Houston Astros. Fellow outfielder Jeff Conine contributed 35 doubles while first-sacker Mike Sweeney went yard on 22 occasions.

Juan Gonzalez of the “Actuals” placed 52^nd in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. 

  Original 2004 Royals                                    Actual 2004 Royals

LINEUP	POS	OWAR		OWS		LINEUP		POS		AWAR		AWS
Jeff Conine	LF		2.29		14.93		David DeJesus		LF/CF		0.65		8.92
Carlos Beltran	CF		6.77		29.02		Carlos Beltran		CF		2.78		11.47
Michael Tucker	RF		1.25		14.12		Matt Stairs		RF		0.12		10.96
Johnny Damon	DH/CF		4.34		25.1		Ken Harvey		DH/1B		0.42		9.33
Mike Sweeney	1B		1.9		12.49		Mike Sweeney		1B		1.9		12.49
Ruben Gotay	2B		-0.41		2.79		Tony Graffanino		2B		0.27		6.56
Ramon Martinez	SS		0.21		5.64		Angel Berroa		SS		0.38		10.55
Joe Randa	3B		0.35		13.1		Joe Randa		3B		0.35		13.1
Brent Mayne	C		-0.39		3.69		John Buck		C		0.32		4.67
BENCH	POS	OWAR		OWS		BENCH		POS		AWAR		AWS
Ken Harvey	1B		0.42		9.33		Desi Relaford		3B		-1.07		3.69
David DeJesus	CF		0.65		8.92		Benito Santiago		C		0.04		3.4
Andres Blanco	SS		0.5		2.32		Alberto Castillo		C		0.6		2.96
Juan Brito	C		-0.83		2.29		Calvin Pickering		DH		0.3		2.94
Dee Brown	LF		-0.71		2.24		Ruben Gotay		2B		-0.41		2.79
Kit Pellow	RF		-0.59		1.08		Juan Gonzalez		RF		0.12		2.69
Shane Halter	3B		-0.19		1.05		Abraham Nunez		RF		-0.47		2.58
Alex Prieto	2B		-0.03		0.75		Andres Blanco		SS		0.5		2.32
Matt Treanor	C		-0.11		0.51		Kelly Stinnett		C		0.48		2.27
Byron Gettis	LF		-0.08		0.38		Dee Brown		LF		-0.71		2.24
Alexis Gomez	LF		-0.07		0.29		Aaron Guiel		LF		-0.55		0.49
Mendy Lopez	2B		-0.5		0.22		Ruben Mateo		RF		-0.72		0.43
Brandon Berger	LF		-0.33		0.2		Byron Gettis		LF		-0.08		0.38
Donnie Murphy	2B		-0.25		0.2		Alexis Gomez		LF		-0.07		0.29
Raul Gonzalez	RF		-0.16		0.12		Jose Bautista		3B		-0.23		0.27
Paul Phillips	C		0		0.1		Mendy Lopez		2B		-0.5		0.22
Mike Tonis	C		-0.11		0.03		Brandon Berger		LF		-0.33		0.2
Larry Sutton	1B		-0.01		0.03		Donnie Murphy		2B		-0.25		0.2
							Wilton Guerrero		2B		-0.22		0.18
							Paul Phillips		C		0		0.1
							Adrian Brown		LF		-0.07		0.08
							Mike Tonis		C		-0.11		0.03
							Rich Thompson		RF		-0.03		0.02
							Damian Jackson		RF		-0.12		0.01

Jon Lieber recorded 14 victories and yielded only 18 bases on balls in 27 starts. Glendon Rusch fashioned a 3.47 ERA as he split time between starting and relief roles. Zack Greinke delivered 8 victories and a 3.97 ERA in his inaugural season. Tom “Flash” Gordon (9-4, 2.21) whiffed 96 batsmen in 89.2 innings and achieved All-Star status.

  Original 2004 Royals                                  Actual 2004 Royals

ROTATION	POS	OWAR	OWS	ROTATION	POS	AWAR	AWS
Jon Lieber	SP	2.87	10.43	Zack Greinke	SP	3.62	9.73
Glendon Rusch	SP	3.02	10	Jimmy Gobble	SP	0.87	5.37
Zack Greinke	SP	3.62	9.73	Dennys Reyes	SP	0.79	4.58
Jimmy Gobble	SP	0.87	5.37	Jeremy Affeldt	SP	0.11	4.42
Jeremy Affeldt	SP	0.11	4.42	Darrell May	SP	-0.05	4.07
BULLPEN	POS	OWAR	OWS	BULLPEN	POS	AWAR	AWS
Tom Gordon	RP	3.66	15.47	Shawn Camp	RP	0.17	4.15
Dan Miceli	RP	0.73	7.13	Jaime Cerda	RP	0.69	4.05
Lance Carter	RP	0.76	6.53	Nate Field	RP	0.07	3.02
Kiko Calero	RP	0.7	5.7	Scott Sullivan	RP	0.12	2.85
Orber Moreno	RP	0.08	2.84	Jason Grimsley	RP	0.59	2.55
Wes Obermueller	SP	-0.01	2.98	Brian Anderson	SP	-0.71	2.84
Ryan Bukvich	RP	0.12	0.82	Mike Wood	SP	0.24	1.91
Chad Durbin	RP	-1.03	0.39	Jimmy Serrano	SP	0.5	1.57
Rodney Myers	RP	0.06	0.29	D. J. Carrasco	RP	-0.12	1.54
Jason Simontacchi	RP	-0.28	0.26	Rudy Seanez	RP	0.32	1.45
Mike MacDougal	RP	-0.13	0.23	Ryan Bukvich	RP	0.12	0.82
Kevin Appier	SP	-0.44	0	Mike MacDougal	RP	-0.13	0.23
Chris George	SP	-0.82	0	Kevin Appier	SP	-0.44	0
Jorge Vasquez	RP	-0.19	0	Denny Bautista	SP	-0.07	0
				Chris George	SP	-0.82	0
				Justin Huisman	RP	-0.51	0
				Matt Kinney	RP	-0.43	0
				Curt Leskanic	RP	-0.64	0
				Jorge Vasquez	RP	-0.19	0
				Eduardo Villacis	SP	-0.22	0

Notable Transactions

Carlos Beltran

June 24, 2004: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Kansas City Royals to the Houston Astros. The Oakland Athletics sent Mark Teahen and Mike Wood to the Kansas City Royals. The Houston Astros sent Octavio Dotel to the Oakland Athletics. The Houston Astros sent John Buck and cash to the Kansas City Royals.

Johnny Damon

January 8, 2001: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Kansas City Royals with Mark Ellis to the Oakland Athletics. The Oakland Athletics sent Ben Grieve to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The Oakland Athletics sent Angel Berroa and A.J. Hinch to the Kansas City Royals. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays sent Cory Lidle to the Oakland Athletics. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays sent Roberto Hernandez to the Kansas City Royals.

November 5, 2001: Granted Free Agency.

December 21, 2001: Signed as a Free Agent with the Boston Red Sox.

Tom Gordon

October 30, 1995: Granted Free Agency.

December 21, 1995: Signed as a Free Agent with the Boston Red Sox.

November 1, 2000: Granted Free Agency.

December 14, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago Cubs.

August 22, 2002: Traded by the Chicago Cubs to the Houston Astros for players to be named later and Russ Rohlicek (minors). The Houston Astros sent Travis Anderson (minors) (September 11, 2002) and Mike Nannini (minors) (September 11, 2002) to the Chicago Cubs to complete the trade.

October 29, 2002: Granted Free Agency.

January 23, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago White Sox.

October 27, 2003: Granted Free Agency.

December 16, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees.

Honorable Mention

The 2009 Kansas City Royals 

OWAR: 45.7     OWS: 268     OPW%: .544     (88-74)

AWAR: 25.3       AWS: 194      APW%: .401    (65-97)

WARdiff: 20.4                        WSdiff: 74

Kansas City clinched the American League Central division title by a lone game over Minnesota. Zack Greinke (16-8, 2.16) merited the 2009 AL Cy Young Award as he paced the Junior Circuit in ERA and WHIP (1.073) while posting career-highs in strikeouts (242) and innings pitched (229.1). Johnny Damon (.282/24/82) tied his personal-best in home runs, slashed 36 two-base hits and registered 107 tallies. Billy Butler aka “Country Breakfast” drilled 51 doubles and swatted 21 big-flies. David DeJesus contributed 13 jacks and knocked in 71 runs. Carlos Beltran supplied a .325 BA but missed more than two months of the season due to injury. J.P. Howell saved 17 contests and collected 7 victories as the Royals’ relief ace.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1969 Reds

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive