In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

 

Assessment

The 1997 Boston Red Sox 

OWAR: 63.7     OWS: 317     OPW%: .583     (94-68)

AWAR: 41.4      AWS: 234     APW%: .481     (78-84)

WARdiff: 22.3                        WSdiff: 83  

The “Original” 1997 Red Sox cruised to the pennant by a ten-game margin over the Yankees. Jeff Bagwell delivered a 30/30 season (43 HR / 31 SB), drove in a career-high 135 baserunners, rapped 40 doubles and coaxed 127 walks. Brady Anderson followed his 50-home run campaign in ’96 with 39 two-base knocks and 18 dingers. A trio of “Original” and “Actual” Sox infielders provided additional firepower in Boston’s stacked lineup. Nomar Garciaparra (.306/30/98) merited the 1997 AL Rookie of the Year Award as he registered 209 base hits, 122 runs scored, 44 doubles, 11 triples and 22 stolen bases. Mo “Hit Dog” Vaughn slammed 35 circuit clouts and supplied a .315 BA. John Valentin (.306/18/77) led the League with 47 two-baggers.

1B Jeff Bagwell and 3B Wade Boggs placed fourth at their respective positions in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Red Sox teammates specified in the “NBJHBA” top 100 rankings include Roger Clemens (11th-P), Mo Vaughn (51st-1B), Brady Anderson (63rd-CF) and Ellis Burks (77th-CF).

  Original 1997 Red Sox                                                             Actual 1997 Red Sox

LINEUP	POS	OWAR	OWS	LINEUP	POS	OWAR	OWS
Ellis Burks	LF/CF	1.03	13.6	Wil Cordero	LF	-1.26	10.76
Brady Anderson	CF	3.44	25.97	Darren Bragg	CF	0.28	10.71
Phil Plantier	RF/LF	-0.02	2.24	Troy O’Leary	RF	0.36	13.57
Mo Vaughn	DH/1B	3.2	22.31	Reggie Jefferson	DH	0.46	10.31
Jeff Bagwell	1B	7.47	30.58	Mo Vaughn	1B	3.2	22.31
John Valentin	2B	4.45	21.03	John Valentin	2B	4.45	21.03
Nomar Garciaparra	SS	4.19	25.54	Nomar Garciaparra	SS	4.19	25.54
Wade Boggs	3B	1.26	11.37	Tim Naehring	3B	1	8.1
John Flaherty	C	1.26	12.67	Scott Hatteberg	C	2.21	6.4
BENCH	POS	OWAR	OWS	BENCH	POS	OWAR	OWS
Tim Naehring	3B	1	8.1	Jeff Frye	2B	1.43	12.16
Scott Hatteberg	C	2.21	6.4	Mike Stanley	DH	1.17	8.52
Todd Pratt	C	0.63	4.46	Shane Mack	CF	0.15	3.59
Ryan McGuire	1B	-0.12	3.98	Mike Benjamin	3B	-0.06	1.52
John Marzano	C	0.05	2.39	Bill Haselman	C	0.09	0.88
Jody Reed	2B	-0.46	1.52	Rudy Pemberton	RF	-0.21	1.03
Danny Sheaffer	3B	-0.71	0.79	Jesus Tavarez	CF	-0.59	0.56
Scott Cooper	3B	-0.47	0.78	Curtis Pride	–	0.1	0.35
Michael Coleman	CF	-0.27	0.11	Arquimedez Pozo	3B	-0.02	0.31
Jose Malave	LF	-0.08	0.04	Jason Varitek	C	0.05	0.16
Walt McKeel	C	-0.04	0	Michael Coleman	CF	-0.27	0.11
				Jose Malave	LF	-0.08	0.04
				Walt McKeel	C	-0.04	0

Roger Clemens (21-7, 2.05) collected the 1997 AL Cy Young Award while posting a personal-best with 292 whiffs. Curt Schilling (17-11, 2.97) overpowered the opposition with a career-high 319 strikeouts. Paul Quantrill furnished a 1.94 ERA in 77 relief appearances. Tom “Flash” Gordon notched 11 saves for the “Actuals”.

  Original 1997 Red Sox                            Actual 1997 Red Sox

ROTATION	POS	OWAR	OWS	ROTATION	POS	AWAR	AWS
Roger Clemens	SP	12	32.22	Tom Gordon	SP	3.72	15.2
Curt Schilling	SP	5.93	22.29	Tim Wakefield	SP	2.85	11.63
Aaron Sele	SP	0.64	6.71	Aaron Sele	SP	0.64	6.71
Frankie Rodriguez	SP	0.93	5.97	Jeff Suppan	SP	0.24	3.72
Jeff Suppan	SP	0.24	3.72	Chris Hammond	SP	-0.23	1.7
BULLPEN	POS	OWAR	OWS	BULLPEN	POS	AWAR	AWS
Paul Quantrill	RP	2.64	11.66	Butch Henry	SW	1.81	8.78
Ron Mahay	RP	0.71	3.4	John Wasdin	SW	1.23	7
Joe Hudson	RP	0.42	2.93	Jim Corsi	RP	0.78	6.01
Shayne Bennett	RP	0.34	1.51	Ron Mahay	RP	0.71	3.4
Reggie Harris	RP	-0.22	1.37	Joe Hudson	RP	0.42	2.93
Erik Plantenberg	RP	0.06	1.07	Ricky Trlicek	RP	-0.06	1.29
Josias Manzanillo	RP	-0.17	0.28	Robinson Checo	SP	0.41	1.24
Cory Bailey	RP	-0.33	0.21	Mark Brandenburg	RP	-0.12	1.21
Greg Hansell	RP	-0.24	0	Derek Lowe	RP	0.29	1.17
Brian Rose	SP	-0.17	0	Heathcliff Slocumb	RP	-0.52	1.14
Ken Ryan	RP	-1.09	0	Steve Avery	SP	-0.9	0.99
				Kerry Lacy	RP	-0.76	0.75
				Vaughn Eshelman	SP	-0.37	0.72
				Rich Garces	RP	-0.1	0.43
				Bret Saberhagen	SP	-0.15	0.01
				Toby Borland	RP	-0.28	0
				Ken Grundt	RP	-0.11	0
				Pat Mahomes	RP	-0.39	0
				Brian Rose	SP	-0.17	0

Notable Transactions

Roger Clemens

November 5, 1996: Granted Free Agency.

December 13, 1996: Signed as a Free Agent with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Jeff Bagwell

August 30, 1990: Traded by the Boston Red Sox to the Houston Astros for Larry Andersen.

Brady Anderson 

July 29, 1988: Traded by the Boston Red Sox with Curt Schilling to the Baltimore Orioles for Mike Boddicker. 

Curt Schilling 

July 29, 1988: Traded by Boston Red Sox with Brady Anderson to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Mike Boddicker.

January 10, 1991: Traded by Baltimore Orioles with Pete Harnisch and Steve Finley to the Houston Astros in exchange for Glenn Davis.

April 2, 1992: Traded by Houston Astros to Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for Jason Grimsley.

December 20, 1995: Granted free agency.

December 21, 1995: Signed by Philadelphia Phillies.

Honorable Mention

The 1927 Boston Red Sox 

OWAR: 32.6     OWS: 230     OPW%: .463     (71-83)

AWAR: 13.7       AWS: 153      APW%: .331    (51-103)

WARdiff: 18.9                        WSdiff: 77

The “Original” 1927 Red Sox tied for last place with the Indians yet managed to finish 20 games better than the “Actual” squad. Babe Ruth (.356/60/165) established the single-season home run record and paced the Junior Circuit with 158 runs scored, 137 walks, a .486 OBP and a .772 SLG. Tris Speaker sported a .327 BA and laced 43 two-base hits in his penultimate season.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1904 Superbas

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive