In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Expanding on my research for the book, the following series of articles will reveal the teams with the biggest single-season difference in the WAR and Win Shares for the “Original” vs. “Actual” rosters for every Major League organization. “Hardball Retrospective” is available in digital format on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, GooglePlay, iTunes and KoboBooks. The paperback edition is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com.

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible here.

Terminology

OWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS – Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

AWAR – Wins Above Replacement for players on “actual” teams

AWS – Win Shares for players on “actual” teams

APW% – Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “actual” teams

Assessment

The 1978 Pittsburgh Pirates 

OWAR: 49.0     OWS: 345     OPW%: .559     (91-71)

AWAR: 40.0      AWS: 263     APW%: .547     (88-73)

WARdiff: 9.0                        WSdiff: 82  

Pittsburgh emerged victorious from a three-team battle with Montreal and Philadelphia for the National League Eastern Division crown. The “Original” Pirates paced the Senior Circuit in OWS and accrued an 82-point Win Shares differential compared to the “Actual” Bucs.

Dave Parker (.334/30/117) collected his second straight batting crown and earned NL MVP and Gold Glove honors. “Cobra” scored 102 runs and topped the League with 340 total bases and a .585 SLG. Willie Randolph recorded 36 steals in 43 attempts and coaxed 82 bases on balls. Willie “Pops” Stargell (.295/28/97) achieved All-Star status for the seventh time. Al “Scoop” Oliver drilled 35 two-base knocks and posted a .324 BA. Mitchell Page (.285/17/70) supplied a solid sophomore season after placing runner-up in the Rookie of the Year balloting in the previous campaign. Don Money batted .293 with 30 doubles to secure his fourth All-Star invitation. Omar Moreno and Frank Taveras ran wild on the base paths, swiping 71 and 46 bases, respectively.

Willie Stargell rated ninth among left fielders in the “The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract” top 100 player rankings. “Original” Pirates teammates registered in the “NBJHBA” top 100 rankings include Dave Parker (14th-RF), Willie Randolph (17th-2B), Al Oliver (31st-CF), Manny Sanguillen (42nd-C), Dave Cash (50th-2B), Don Money (55th-3B), Richie Hebner (56th-3B), Richie Zisk (69th-RF), Freddie Patek (73rd-SS), Bob Bailey (79th-3B), Tony Armas (89th-RF) and Rennie Stennett (90th-2B). Jim Fregosi (15^th-SS), Bert Blyleven (39^th-P) and Phil Garner (41^st-2B) achieved top-100 status among the individuals who played solely for the “Actual” 1978 Pirates.

  Original 1978 Pirates                                Actual 1978 Pirates

STARTING LINEUP	POS	OWAR	OWS	STARTING LINEUP	POS	AWAR	AWS
Al Oliver	LF	3.24	21.42	Bill Robinson	LF	0.33	13.75
Omar Moreno	CF	2.02	18.08	Omar Moreno	CF	2.02	18.08
Dave Parker	RF	6.91	36.75	Dave Parker	RF	6.91	36.75
Willie Stargell	1B	2.42	22	Willie Stargell	1B	2.42	22
Willie Randolph	2B	5.16	22.83	Rennie Stennett	2B	0.34	4.95
Craig Reynolds	SS	3.09	17.66	Frank Taveras	SS	0.76	16.43
Don Money	3B/1B	3.32	18.96	Phil Garner	3B	2.86	19.58
Milt May	C	0.94	8.46	Ed Ott	C	1.3	11.76
BENCH	POS	OWAR	OWS	BENCH	POS	AWAR	AWS
Mitchell Page	LF	2.34	20.02	John Milner	LF	0.93	10.1
Frank Taveras	SS	0.76	16.43	Manny Sanguillen	1B	-0.29	3.57
Richie Hebner	1B	2.81	16.19	Dale Berra	3B	-0.14	2.82
Art Howe	2B	3.09	15.77	Duffy Dyer	C	-0.52	2.36
Richie Zisk	DH	1.25	15.11	Steve Brye	LF	-0.11	2.26
Ed Ott	C	1.3	11.76	Mario Mendoza	2B	0.05	1.32
Dave Cash	2B	-0.6	11.31	Ken Macha	3B	-0.1	1.08
Freddie Patek	SS	0.28	10.8	Jim Fregosi	3B	0.05	0.52
Mike Edwards	2B	-1.12	6.07	Alberto Lois	LF	0.04	0.29
Rennie Stennett	2B	0.34	4.95	Cito Gaston	LF	0.02	0.13
Bob Robertson	DH	0.17	4.07	Fernando Gonzalez	2B	-0.15	0.08
Gene Clines	LF	-0.56	3.66	Steve Nicosia	C	-0.06	0.05
Manny Sanguillen	1B	-0.29	3.57	Doe Boyland	1B	-0.05	0.01
Miguel Dilone	LF	-0.75	3.31	Matt Alexander	–	-0.01	0
Tony Armas	RF	-0.36	2.95	Dave May	–	-0.03	0
Jimmy Sexton	SS	0.3	2.94
Dale Berra	3B	-0.14	2.82
Bob Bailey	DH	-0.09	1.73
Mario Mendoza	2B	0.05	1.32
Ken Macha	3B	-0.1	1.08
Nelson Norman	SS	-0.14	0.7
Alberto Lois	LF	0.04	0.29
Butch Alberts	DH	-0.06	0.2
Steve Nicosia	C	-0.06	0.05
Doe Boyland	1B	-0.05	0.01

Don “Caveman” Robinson (14-6, 3.47) produced a WHIP of 1.139 and placed third in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. “The Candy Man” John Candelaria contributed 12 victories and a 3.24 ERA following a 20-win effort in the previous campaign. The bullpen trifecta consisted of Doug Bair (1.97, 28 SV), Gene Garber (2.15, 25 SV) and Kent Tekulve (2.33, 31 SV). Bert Blyleven tallied 14 victories for the “Actuals” while posting a 3.03 ERA.

  Original 1978 Pirates                               Actual 1978 Pirates

ROTATION	POS	OWAR	OWS	ROTATION	POS	AWAR	AWS
Don Robinson	SP	2.63	14.13	Bert Blyleven	SP	3.65	16.94
John Candelaria	SP	3.29	12.87	Don Robinson	SP	2.63	14.13
Rick Langford	SP	2.1	10.57	John Candelaria	SP	3.29	12.87
Silvio Martinez	SP	0.33	6.43	Bruce Kison	SP	1.12	6.08
Bruce Kison	SP	1.12	6.08	Jim Bibby	SP	0.41	5.92
BULLPEN	POS	OWAR	OWS	BULLPEN	POS	AWAR	AWS
Gene Garber	RP	3.45	20.73	Kent Tekulve	RP	2.88	19.7
Kent Tekulve	RP	2.88	19.7	Grant Jackson	RP	0.63	6.21
Doug Bair	RP	3.83	17.45	Ed Whitson	RP	0.56	5.44
Ed Whitson	RP	0.56	5.44	Dave Hamilton	RP	-0.35	0.91
				Clay Carroll	RP	0.1	0.42
Dock Ellis	SP	-0.72	5.39	Jim Rooker	SP	-0.73	4.76
Woodie Fryman	SP	-0.04	5.17	Jerry Reuss	SP	-0.45	1.57
Rick Honeycutt	SP	-0.6	3.45	Odell Jones	SP	0.18	1.17
Odell Jones	SP	0.18	1.17	Will McEnaney	RP	-0.66	0

Notable Transactions

Willie Randolph 

December 11, 1975: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates with Ken Brett and Dock Ellis to the New York Yankees for Doc Medich. 

Al Oliver 

December 8, 1977: Traded as part of a 4-team trade by the Pittsburgh Pirates with Nelson Norman to the Texas Rangers. The Atlanta Braves sent Willie Montanez to the New York Mets. The Texas Rangers sent Tommy Boggs, Adrian Devine and Eddie Miller to the Atlanta Braves. The Texas Rangers sent a player to be named later and Tom Grieve to the New York Mets. The Texas Rangers sent Bert Blyleven to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The New York Mets sent Jon Matlack to the Texas Rangers. The New York Mets sent John Milner to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Texas Rangers sent Ken Henderson (March 15, 1978) to the New York Mets to complete the trade. 

Mitchell Page 

March 15, 1977: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates with Tony Armas, Doug Bair, Dave Giusti, Rick Langford and Doc Medich to the Oakland Athletics for Chris Batton, Phil Garner and Tommy Helms. 

Gene Garber

October 25, 1972: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Kansas City Royals for Jim Rooker.

July 12, 1974: Purchased by the Philadelphia Phillies from the Kansas City Royals. 

Don Money

December 15, 1967: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates with Harold Clem (minors), Woodie Fryman and Bill Laxton to the Philadelphia Phillies for Jim Bunning.

October 31, 1972: Traded by the Philadelphia Phillies with Bill Champion and John Vukovich to the Milwaukee Brewers for Ken Brett, Jim Lonborg, Ken Sanders and Earl Stephenson.

Craig Reynolds

December 7, 1976: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates with Jimmy Sexton to the Seattle Mariners for Grant Jackson.

Honorable Mention

The 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates 

OWAR: 46.1     OWS: 303     OPW%: .597     (97-65)

AWAR: 24.2       AWS: 236      APW%: .488    (79-83)

WARdiff: 21.9                        WSdiff: 67

The “Original” 2012 Bucs bested the Brew Crew by four games and trounced the “Actuals” by an 18-game margin. Andrew McCutchen (.327/31/96) established personal bests in batting average, home runs, RBI, runs (107), hits (194) and SLG (.553). He placed third in the NL MVP race and earned his first Gold Glove Award. Aramis Ramirez (.300/27/105) topped the circuit with 50 two-base hits. Pedro “El Toro” Alvarez dialed long distance 30 times and knocked in 85 baserunners. Jose A. Bautista bashed 27 long balls despite missing nearly half the season due to injury. Jeff Keppinger boasted a .325 BA in a platoon role.

On Deck

What Might Have Been – The “Original” 1992 Padres

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill. The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. New York, NY.: The Free Press, 2001. Print.

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at “www.retrosheet.org”.

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive