As a former No. 1 overall draft pick, No. 1 overall prospect, three-time batting champion, and 2009 American League M.V.P., Joe Mauer seemed destined to dawn a Twins cap in his inevitable Hall of Fame induction. He claimed the title Mr. Minnesota, and the Twins payed him as such when they inked him to an 8-year, $184M contract starting in the 2011 season. However, Mauer’s sudden drop in production following his full-time conversion to first base left many Minnesotans cursing his name and clamoring for the vintage Joe Mauer. As a small market franchise attempting a rebuild, Minnesota desperately needs Mauer to live up to his contract if they plan to contend with their rising young core. While 2016 has started off miserably for the Twins – their division odds have already sunk from 7.6% to 1.5% – a resurgent Mauer provides one bright spot in an otherwise bleak outlook. While the usual sample size caveats apply here, Mauer’s improvements appear more than superficial.

Through the first couple weeks, Mauer has crushed the ball to the tune of a 173 wRC+, and has already surpassed his 2015 fWAR. He has raised his BB% to 12.8, the highest it’s been since 2012, cut his K% down to 8.5, lowest since 2008, and upped his isolated power to .154, its highest mark since his M.V.P. campaign in 2009. While Mauer most certainly cannot maintain his current .371 BABIP, underlying signals suggest that he may have broken out of his two-year slump and regained his All-Star form.

One indicator: his resurgence in batted-ball prowess. So far this season, Mauer’s Hard% is up greater than 10 points over the past couple seasons and has risen back to his previously dominant levels. Similarly, Mauer is pulling the ball more than ever, and is going to the opposite field less than ever before. Perhaps this is a sign of Mauer adjusting to an aging body – as his bat speed diminishes, he might swing earlier to try and get ahead of the ball. Another encouraging sign: his line-drive rate has risen to 33.3%, the highest he’s ever had it, while his fly-ball rate has diminished to 19.4% the lowest he’s ever been at. Considering how much his home park, Target Field, suppresses left-handed power, this seems a wise adjustment to make. On the downside, Mauer’s HR/FB rate and IFH% reside above his expected rates, providing obvious areas for his power and BABIP to regress. However, the overall batted-ball picture remains encouraging.

In addition to batted balls, Mauer is displaying an overall different approach at the plate. His O-Swing% is back to its previous low form while his Z-Swing% and overall Swing%, have sunk to their lowest levels in his career. After Baseball America rated him as having the best strike-zone discipline in the American League in 2012, his chase rates spiked tremendously in 2013 and had remained there since. Now Mauer seems to have regained that lauded discipline. Furthermore, his Zone% has actually dropped each of the past three seasons; this combination of less pitches in the zone and fewer chases out of it explains his rising walk rate. Additionally, Mauer has significantly raised both his O-Contact % and Z-Contact%. Overall, it appears Mauer has become more selective on which pitches he feels he can barrel up, hence the rising contact and line-drive rates.

Now if Mauer truly has made critical adjustments to improve his game, then we should expect to see pitchers alter their approach as well. Baseball is nothing if not a game of adjustments. According to Brooks Baseball, Mauer’s current relative mix of hard, breaking, and off-speed pitches seen remains the same as ever, suggesting that no major adjustments have been made yet. However, if his bat truly is slowing down and these are his adjustments, we should expect to see pitchers start attacking him with fastballs up and in. Currently, Mauer sees roughly 1/3 of his pitches off the plate low and away. Realizing that he won’t chase those anymore, pitchers will presumably begin attacking him in the zone more often. Whether Mauer can turn on these pitches and continue lining the ball the right will determine whether or not these results stick.

In the big picture, small-sample variance likely explains most of Mauer’s current success. However, Mauer does appear to at least be attempting to adjust his approach, hence we should not entirely disregard these results. Up to this point, Mauer has shown significantly more selectivity in which pitches he swings at, particularly in the zone, letting him barrel up the ones he feels he can hit with conviction. As pitchers adjust to his adjustments, we will see whether Mauer has truly made a triumphant return. The Twins desperately hope Mauer can maintain a modicum of these results, as he will earn $23M a year through 2018. Unlikely to go out and make a major free-agent splash, Minnesota needs Mauer to provide value commensurate to his contract if they plan to capitalize on their youth movement. Once (if) Sano, Buxton, Berrios and company develop, the Twins could have a devastating roster led by Mauer. Until then, in a season marred by underperformance and disappointment, the return of Minnesota’s favorite son could provide a potential beacon of hope.

Stat Line:  6 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 6 SO, 2 BB

In the New York Mets’ 2-1 victory over the Miami Marlins, Logan Verrett showed why he would be in the starting rotation for 29 of 30 Major League teams.  Verrett attacks opposing lineups differently than the Mets’ big three power pitchers, looking to induce poor contact early in at-bats rather than inducing a high whiff/miss and strikeout rates.

Logan Verrett continues showing more than scouts prepared us for, exhibiting an above-average breaking ball while keeping four pitches low in the strike zone.

Repertoire

Verrett’s breaking ball (slider and curveball) is a viable MLB strikeout pitch, inducing a strong 16.6% whiff/miss rate (swing and miss rate).  His breaking ball, particularly his slider, shows sharp, late, downward movement and has enough velocity to deceive the hitter into thinking the pitch is a four-seam fastball.  The reason behind defining it as a breaking ball is because it’s tough to decipher the difference between his slider and curveball.

Verrett’s four-seam fastball sits 90 to 93 mph while his two-seam fastball, also referred to as a sinker, dials in at 88 to 92 mph.  At times, Verrett’s two-seam fastball/sinker seemed to move 6 to 10 inches with sharp 10-to-5 downward movement (think of 10 to 5 on a clock).  Although he didn’t show consistent fastball command on the corners of home plate, Verrett kept his pitches between ankle and thigh high.

Staying low in the strike zone with two pitches having sharp downward movement makes it nearly impossible for opposing hitters to lift the baseball for hard hits and extra base hits.

Verrett’s Four Keys to Success

Verrett has to focus on four aspects of pitching to be successful with a fastball/sinker primarily sitting 88 to 92 mph:

1. Command fastball low in the strike zone because any misses in the strike zone will be hit hard.
2. Rely more on a two-seam fastball/sinker with downward movement rather than straighter four-seam fastballs further reducing hard contact and naturally helping keep the ball down.
3. Throw many off-speed pitches (45%-50% of total pitches) making his fastballs appear harder than reality.
4. Throw at least 70% to 75% first-pitch strikes otherwise Verrett will be forced to throw predictable fastballs to climb back even in counts.

Verrett commanded his fastball thigh-high or below on 46% of fastballs but excluding the five intentionally thrown high four-seam fastballs the percentage moves to a respectable 52%.  However, Verrett only threw 34% two-seam fastballs/sinkers, another reason his “fastball low in the strike zone” percentage wasn’t higher.  Verrett threw 52% off-speed pitches at an outstanding 70% strike rate.  Lastly, Verrett threw 77% first-pitch strikes.  Three out of four isn’t bad for his first spot start of the 2016 season.

Cause for Concern

Verrett showed a stronger out pitch than scouts reported but didn’t exhibit fastball command on each corner of home plate needed for a pitcher throwing in the low 90s.  In fact, he threw 27 of his 85 pitches (31%) on the inner half of home plate or inside to hitters but only eight of those were commanded well on the inside corner.  Understandably, Verrett lives on the outside corner but must learn to throw inside with a purpose and control.  Lacking control and a presence on the inside corner allows MLB hitters to feel comfortable in the batter’s box and gives them the ability to look for predictable outside pitches.  When an MLB hitter is able to predict or feel comfortable guessing a certain pitch type or pitch location, the more aggressive and confident their swings become.  This makes Verrett vulnerable to higher home run, hard contact and walk rates.

I wrote the article below before the news that Hector Olivera had been arrested on suspicion of domestic assault.  Obviously, if true, those allegations are horrible, and take precedent over any analysis as a player. 

As you may know, the Atlanta Braves have entered a full-scale rebuild.  Nearly every player of note from the 2014 Braves has been shipped out of town: Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, Andrelton Simmons, Melvin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, Alex Wood, etc.  Most of the transactions the team has made can be characterized as typical for a rebuilding club — exchange short-term assets for long-term assets with a focus on youth.  You can argue the emphasis on stockpiling pitching is unique, but the general idea of the Braves rebuild fits the standard template.  That is, with the exception of one transaction.

Just before the 2015 MLB Trade Deadline, the Braves sent 24-year-old left-hander Alex Wood and organizational top infield prospect Jose Peraza to the Los Angeles Dodgers for 30-year-old Cuban rookie third baseman Hector Olivera.  The teams exchanged other pieces in the deal (including a 2016 draft pick headed to Atlanta), but the backbone of the trade was Wood and Peraza for Olivera.  In making the deal, the Braves bucked the conventional rebuild philosophy (particularly theirs) in sending out young, cheap, controllable assets while acquiring a more expensive player who was already 30 years old.  It was a bold move that made Olivera and his development hugely important in making the tear-down to build-up strategy a success.  So, eight plus months later, what do the Braves have in Hector Olivera?

The short answer is no one knows.  There simply is not enough of a sample to have any confidence projecting Olivera.  When the Braves acquired him, Olivera was nursing a hamstring injury, so he began his Braves career with a rehab stint in the middle of August.  After a combined six games between the Braves’ rookie and Single-A affiliates, Olivera played another 10 games at Triple-A before making his major-league debut September 1.  He finished 2015 with 87 plate appearances and has added 21 more thus far in 2016 for a grand total of 108 major league PAs.  While 108 plate appearances is not much to go on, this is FanGraphs, so we can do better than shrugging and throwing our hands in the air until the sample grows.

Plate-discipline numbers are some of the first to stabilize after a player is called up.  During his time in MLB, Olivera has walked less than average (BB% of 5.6%) while also striking out less than average (K% of 15.7%) and making contact at a rate just above league average (Contact% of 81%).  A low walk rate combined with a low strikeout rate and near average contact rate means he must be swinging the bat.  Sure enough, that is what is shown on his player page.

Olivera swings at over 4.0% more pitches than the MLB average player.  That alone would not be concerning, except the reason that his Swing% is elevated is mainly because he is swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone, as evidenced by an O-Swing% 6.6% above the league average.  These are the hardest pitches to get the barrel of the bat on, and Olivera’s batted-ball numbers show the effects of swinging at balls outside the zone.

Despite showing the ability to hit the ball hard with a maximum exit velocity of 110 according to Baseball Savant (approximately 86th percentile thus far in 2016), Olivera has posted ISO and BABIP figures well below the MLB average.  His struggles to make consistent solid contact show up throughout his profile with a low LD%, high IFFB% (a BABIP killer), and low HR/FB ratio.  Perhaps the best summary of Olivera’s MLB batted-ball authority is found within his soft/medium/hard contact percentages.  His medium contact rate is nearly identical to the league average, but Olivera’s hard contact percentage is well below league average with the entire difference and more being accounted for in his soft contact percentage.  Essentially, Olivera’s offensive output has been sunk by a poor approach.  He has swung at too many pitches outside the strike zone, leading to weak contact and therefore poor production on balls in play. 

I haven’t yet touched on his fielding and baserunning numbers.  The Braves were not confident in his ability to stick at third base, so they moved him to left field this past offseason.  Obviously that does not suggest much confidence in his fielding ability, but it remains to be seen how he will perform as an outfielder.  The early returns are not promising as both DRS and UZR have him rated negatively (-2 and -3.7 respectively) in an admittedly microscopic sample of 43 innings.  As for his baserunning, BsR numbers of an exactly average 0.0 leave little reason to expect him to contribute or hurt much on the base paths.  It seems safe to say the bat will be what determines Olivera’s future success. 

Fortunately, the potential in that bat is obvious given the hype surrounding him and ultimately the contract he received coming out of Cuba.  He has also shown the ability to hit the ball hard on occasion at the major-league level, but particularly given the Braves decision to move him from third base to left field, Olivera will need to learn to make much more consistent hard contact to post acceptable offensive numbers.  For the Braves, there is plenty left to see to determine if this trade was a wise investment, but the early returns are not promising. 

Most FanGraphs readers know that even the fastest-stabilizing statistics take almost a quarter of a season to mean anything. With the availability of PITCHf/x data, we can look at individual pitch data, which can give us hundreds of data points for an individual pitcher just from one start. Instead of waiting until near the All-Star break to see if Aaron Sanchez has really made a leap forward or if the league has adjusted to Dallas Keuchel, we can use statistics that stabilize quickly (both “approach” stats and “results” stats) to guide these decisions.

The “results” stats that I used are:

• Zone Contact%
• Zone Whiff%
• Zone Take%
• Out-of-Zone Contact%
• Out-of-Zone Whiff%
• Out-of-Zone Take%
• First Pitch Strike%

First, I used a regression model to create a formula that used only these statistics to produce an expected ERA (or SIERA, actually, as I wanted to filter out any BABIP and HR/FB luck).

The formula ended up as: -3.11 + (12.48 * Z-Con%) + (3.08 * Z-Take%) + (11.96 * O-Con%) – (14.19 * O-Whiff%) + (13.06 * O-Take%) – (3.46 * F-Strike%)

Using 2015 data (and only pitchers who threw more than 1,500 pitches), I get an r-squared of 0.68. I’m going to call this statistic “PD-SIERA” since it uses only plate-discipline data to produce an expected SIERA.

The PD-SIERA leaders for 2015 were:

1. Clayton Kershaw, 2.47
2. Chris Sale, 2.75
3. Max Scherzer, 2.78
4. Carlos Carrasco, 2.78
5. Chris Archer, 2.92

The r-squared is good enough, and those names pass the sniff test, so I’m pretty comfortable that this produces a good approximation of pitcher performance.

I will use this to calculate a Results Change% = (year2_PD-SIERA – year1_PD_SIERA)/(year1_PD_SIERA). For example, Drew Smyly had a 3.73 PD-SIERA in 2014 (year2) and a 2.33 PD-SIERA in April of 2015 (year1). The calculation would then be: (3.73 – 2.33) / (3.73) = +37.5%

[This number can be positive or negative to indicate a positive or negative change in results]

Now, just looking at the plate discipline statistics isn’t enough. We need to see if there was a reason for a pitcher to have a better or worse PD-SIERA than he had the previous year. PITCHf/x to the rescue again, as we can look at what I will call “approach” stats: a pitcher’s pitch mix and velocity. Since these are things almost completely under the pitcher’s control, they should stabilize quickly.

In order to calculate a pitcher’s “Approach Change%,” I calculate the change in his pitch mix + the percentage of velocity change from the previous year. An example of the calculation is below:

• Drew Smyly, 2014 (full): 89.9 mph, 51.9% FB, 15.9 % CT, 28.5% CB, 3.8% CH
• Drew Smyly, 2015 (April):  90.2 mph, 46.4% FB, 30.1% CT, 23.5% CB, 0.0% CH

Velocity change = (year1_velo – year2_velo)/(year2_velo) = (90.2-89.9)/89.9 = 0.3%

[If this value ended up negative, we would use the absolute value, as we are only interested in the amount of change, not positive/negative change]

Pitch Mix change = -5.5% FB, +14.2% CT, -5.0% CB, -3.8% CH = (take the absolute value of all of these changes and then divide by two) = (28.5%) / 2 = 14.3%

[Dividing by two makes sure that each percentage change is only counted once – a +1% increase in FB% combined with a 1% decrease in CH% equals only a 1% chance in pitch mix]

Approach Change% = Velocity change + Pitch mix change = 14.3% + 0.3% = 14.6%

In order to see if this formula would work for 2016, we can look backwards to see how it would have done predicting 2015 breakouts/blow-ups.

Looking at the data from 2014 (full season) to 2015 (April only), we can multiply Approach Change% * Results Change% to see if we can identify early-season breakout/blow-up candidates. The three highest rated “breakout” candidates in April 2015 were:

1. Drew Smyly: 14.6% Approach Change%, +37.5% Results Change%… Improved SIERA from 3.69 (2014) to 3.25 (2015)
2. Chris Archer: 13.7% Approach Change%, +36.1% Results Change%… Improved SIERA from 3.80 (2014) to 3.08 (2015)
3. Dillon Gee: 13.4% Approach Change%, +36.6% Results Change%… SIERA increased slightly from 4.30 to 4.41 (groin injury in May, lost his rotation spot, and ended up in the minors for most of the second half)

Not bad – two of the clear top three breakout candidates actually improved their SIERA by over 10% from 2014. How about the bottom of the list? We have a clear top four:

1. Homer Bailey: 14.2% Approach Change%, -34.7% Results Change%… SIERA jumped from 3.60 to 5.65 (injured after two starts)
2. Jake Peavy: 21.9% Approach Change%, -14.9 Results Change%… SIERA increased slightly from 4.11 to 4.33
3. Tyler Matzek: 23.9% Approach Change%, -13.6% Results Change%… SIERA jumped from 4.08 to 6.45 (injured after five starts)
4. Wade Miley: 10.2% Approach Change%, -31.5% Results Change%… SIERA jumped from 3.67 to 4.24

Bailey and Matzek were both headed for season-ending injury (maybe this formula is a good predictor of an aching arm?), Miley went from above-average to below-average, and Peavy got a bit worse.

To show why we need both the Approach and Results Change%, consider these two pitchers:

• James Shields: 5.5% Approach Change%, +26.5% Results Change%… SIERA increased slightly from 3.59 to 3.72
• Edinson Volquez: 5.2% Approach Change%, +23.5% Results Change%… SIERA increased slightly from 4.20 to 4.35

Both pitchers had significantly better results in April of 2015 than they did in 2014, but their approach barely changed at all. As the change in results was not backed by any change in approach, they both ended up being essentially the same pitcher for the remainder of 2015 as they had been in 2014.

I’ve run the numbers for the first week of 2016, but will wait until we get about a month’s worth of data before releasing the actual numbers. For those that would like a sneak peak (caution: most of these are using ONE game’s worth of data!):

Breakout candidates: Alfredo Simon, Wade Miley, Jose Fernandez, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez

Blow-up candidates: Dallas Keuchel, Stephen Strasburg, Jerad Eickhoff, Chris Sale, Taijuan Walker, Masahiro Tanaka, James Shields

Positional adjustments are a tricky subject to model. It’s obvious that an average shortstop should get more credit for defense than an average first baseman, but there are a wide variety of methods to calculate this credit. Some methods use purely offense to calculate the adjustments, while others have used players changing positions as proxy for how difficult each area is.

We’ll use a simplified version of the defense-based adjustments (which I’ll propose a change for later) for Part 1. This model looks at all players who have played two positions (weighted by the harmonic mean of innings played between the two). Then, it produces a number for how much better an average player performed at a certain position than another. After doing this for all 21 pairs of positions, we combine the comparisons into one scale, weighted by which changes happen the most often.

Example: the table below shows how all outfielders in 1961 performed when changing positions within the outfield (using Total Zone per 1300 innings):

• LF/CF: 14.5 runs/1300 better at LF, 4028 innings
• LF/RF: 10.4 runs/1300 better at LF, 9487 innings
• CF/RF: 7.4 runs/1300 better at RF, 6025 innings

After weighting each transition by the number of innings, we get an estimate that the LF adjustment should be -8.3, RF should be 1.0, and CF should be 7.3. (We’re assuming that players being better at a position means that that position is easier.)

I performed this calculation for all seven field positions (1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF) for all years between 1961 and 2001. While using only seasons from the same year does away with any aging issues, the big problem with this analysis is that it doesn’t adjust for experience, as very few managers, ever, send full-time first basemen to play the outfield. This experience issue will be addressed in Part 2, but for now we just have to keep it in mind.

Finally, while I could have expanded this to 2015, the difference between UZR/DRS and TZ is so massive that using both would have created a lot of error in the graphs below.

The graphs (using loess regression to smooth the yearly data):

With yearly data:

With error bars:

Less smooth version:

Less smooth version with points:

A lot of positions have 4-run error bars, so it would be wise to take some jumps and drops with a grain of salt. However, it is interesting to note that corner outfielders (especially left fielders) appear to get much better at defense since the 1960s, while the right side of the infield has seemed to drop in quality. Also, for whatever reason, center field had a huge dip during the 1970’s.

During Part 2, I’ll analyze these graphs in depth, and propose adjustments to this simple model.

A preview of Brandon Belt, Giants first baseman

Ever since Brandon Belt tore apart the Eastern League in 2010, hitting .337/.413/.623 over 201 plate appearances in a very pitcher-friendly league, Giants fans have been hyped up on his potential major-league career. When his name first began to circulate, fans and journalists liked to mention Belt’s raw power. 

That’s a dangerous word for Giants fans: power. You say that word, and all of a sudden we enter fever dream hallucinations of riding Barry Bonds home runs like Concords, waving at our houses as we pass over them, never to land. We’ve been pining for a 40+ home-run hitter since Bonds set the league on fire in 2004. No, that’s not hyperbolic enough. Barry Bonds incinerated baseball history in 2004. Relatively impossible standards for any mortal player, wouldn’t you agree?

So why Belt? How did Belt become the Giants’ next offensive savior, when he doesn’t even play Bonds’ position?

****

BELT AS BONDS

The Giants never had a history of developing hitters well. Will Clark was the one true homegrown star that bridged the Mays and McCovey era to the present one. The post-Bonds years were a concoction of otherworldly young pitching, and Brian Bocock: starting opening-day shortstop. Bengie Molina led the 2008 Giants in home runs….with 16.

We were given a Panda in 2009, swinging at everything for a .330/.387/.556 slash. 23-year-old Pablo Sandoval firmly grasped the hearts of Giants fans, but he wasn’t really heralded for his power. To this day, no Giant has hit 30 or more home runs in a single season since Bonds in 2004.

Then came 2011. In Brandon Belt’s second major-league game, he hit a three-run homer to dead center field at Dodger Stadium against Chad Billingsley. Certainly no easy task, but the way Belt just whipped his bat through the strike zone made it look almost routine. “That’s the guy,” thought the Giants fan. “That’s the team’s new 30-home-run machine.” It was that instantaneous.

But it wasn’t that easy. Belt, like most rookies, struggled to keep pace with major-league-caliber pitching: a 23-year-old kid could be forgiven for facing Clayton Kershaw like he was swinging a fishing rod. Belt bounced from Triple-A to San Francisco, from the bench to the disabled list. Every once in a while he flashed his incredible home-run potential, re-igniting the “Savior Belt” narrative. He just needed more time.

In late 2012 Brandon Belt finally, if unspectacularly, wrested the starting first-base job from Brett Pill, another hitter with serious power. Belt locked himself in during a lost 2013 season, perhaps at last realizing his potential. He came out with dingers blazing in 2014, and was then hit in the wrist with a Paul Maholm fastball. Upon returning, he received a concussion from his own teammate. It was a lost season for Belt, even though he did get to be a postseason hero for one night.

In 2015, he finally put it together. Slashing .280/.356/.478, Belt had his best overall season. He had arrived.

****

So why do people still call into KNBR 680, and bother the poor hosts with poorly-conceived trade proposals that usually involve purging Belt? Is it because he hasn’t unleashed the stupendous slugging ability that we fantasized for him, an unrealistic threshold that is becoming harder for any San Francisco hitter to reach?

In this era of pitching-dominated baseball, in one of the most dramatically home-run-reducing ballpark in the United States, very few left-handed Giants are capable of hitting 30 home runs. Giants hitters, Belt very much included, succeed by hitting .300, maintaining a terrific eye at the plate, hitting to all fields, and playing solid (and sometimes sterling) defense. Park factors have always pegged AT&T Park, with its Grand Canyon outfield gaps, as a doubles and triples park. Therefore, it benefits the team to fill their lineup with contact-first hitters with…you guessed it…doubles and triples power. This is how the Giants have won. This is how the Giants will continue to win.

That said, how do we value Belt? He’ll be 28 for most of 2016, so he’s likely in his prime, or close to it. Via Baseball Prospectus, Belt was worth 4.7 Wins Above Replacement Player in 2015, and 4.4 WARP in 2013, losing 2014 largely to injury. Belt is a plus base-runner, and a very adept fielder (DRS: 8, UZR: 9 in 2015). But how do we know if these numbers are good?

Perhaps we need some context. There are two first basemen in particular whom Belt resembles, both representing existing and theoretical stages of Belt’s development. The first is Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds, and the second is Freddie Freeman of the Atlanta Braves. Let’s show a quick comparison of the three players, in 2015.

All three players had great seasons last year, and all three players are similar in different ways. Belt, like Freeman, is young enough to improve. Belt, like Votto, had his best season in 2015, yet remains criminally underrated. Votto and Freeman both survived team rebuilds, and both represent their team’s best player. Both have had to be superstars, whereas Belt has become a role player. All three are left-handed.

But there’s more to both players than their statistics on the surface; all three players have unquestioned power, and power hitters are expected to command the strike zone. One quick glance at Barry Bonds’ Baseball-Reference page reveals his unbelievable plate discipline, usually getting one good pitch to hit per game. Sluggers command the zone, just as they command respect.

This table shows the percent of pitches outside the strike zone at which each player swung (o-swing%), the percentage of pitches inside the strike zone at which each player swung (z-swing%), the percentage of total swings that resulted in contact (contact%), and the percentage of strike swings that resulted in contact (z-contact%). The final column shows the percentage of balls put into play that were hit hard. We are using data collected through PITCHf/x, displayed on FanGraphs.

****

BELT AS VOTTO

Joey Votto, being the best and longest-tenured hitter on this list, doesn’t swing much. He swings at only 19% of balls, 11% better than league average. Perhaps more importantly, Votto is very selective about swinging at certain strikes. Many pitches in the strike zone cut the corners, with nasty movement running down, away, or into a hitter. If a hitter were to attempt a swing at one of these pitches, he would make weak contact, and likely make an out. It’s a blatantly obvious, but crucial reminder: hitters get three strikes, and they don’t have to swing at all of them.

Votto has a spectacular eye; he will only swing at the best strikes he gets. His eye and stubbornly consistent plate discipline have earned him an MVP award, and have helped established himself as one of the smartest hitters in the game.

Votto, much like Belt, has drawn criticism for his approach. He has endured the ire of many impatient Reds fans due to his deliberate approach to hitting. Fans know Votto has special power, and they don’t want to watch him walk 20% of the time. The old-guard sentiment still lives strong, and contends that Votto is wasting his offensive capabilities by just getting on base, leaving the damage to the hitters behind him in the lineup. Votto should be the one doing the damage. But the value of getting on base is undeniable these days, and Votto is too smart to swing when he doesn’t want to.

So Votto sets the ceiling pretty high for Belt. Both hitters use the entire field very well, but they each play in vastly different hitting environments. Belt makes the hard contact necessary to intimidate opposing pitchers, but he may never hit enough home runs at AT&T Park to command the respect that Votto does. Belt also swings and misses a lot (league-average contact rate in 2015 was 80%), and needs to lower his strikeout rate, lest opposing pitchers taunt him with junk.

Belt has improved his offensive prowess every year since 2012, and if he improves further in 2016, he could draw more comparisons to Votto than he does to the next guy.

****

BELT AS FREEMAN

The closest current comparison to Belt is Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman. Both players are relatively young, and love to swing. Neither makes as much contact as Votto does, but both hit a higher percentage of balls harder. Both are very solid defenders, and capable baserunners.

Whereas Votto personifies Belt’s future potential, Freeman represents Belt’s present and past. While the similarities are there, one glaring difference exists in Belt’s favor.

Freeman had easily his best season in 2013, and has posted progressively weaker seasons in the two years since. Belt, on the other hand, has gradually improved. Belt, like Freeman, had a terrific 2013 season, boosted by a ridiculous second-half surge. In 2014, Belt was well on his way to career highs in home runs, OPS and RBIs, until he was repeatedly and mercilessly struck by baseballs, from Dodgers and Giants alike. Broken wrists and concussions kept Belt from playing a full season.

Then 2015 came, and Belt started to resemble the hitter Freeman had been in 2013. After several years of doubt, it was becoming clear that Belt was trending up. He was still improving. There was no reason to suspect any deviation from the trend, and Belt would continue the dedicated upward march toward the summit of his own potential.

****

DOCTOR BELTED AND MISTER SLIDE

Except we’re getting ahead of ourselves again. Part of the reason fans are constantly disappointed by Belt is the incessant, hyperbolic expectation that surrounds him, and the unfair duality with which he becomes associated. He’ll go 3-4 with three singles, and we’re wondering where his power went. Then he’ll go 1-5 with a long home run and four strikeouts, and we’ll throw our hands in the air and complain that he’s too reliant on his power. Why can’t he be more consistent? We can’t allow a middle ground for Belt, because he doesn’t present one: Belt truly is an all-or-nothing hitter.

This doesn’t appear to be the case when Belt’s season statistics are viewed as a whole; he puts up solidly above-average offensive numbers. When Belt plays a full season, he’ll hit 18-24 home runs per year, and posts a batting average between .270 and .290. Sound familiar? We know better, because we’ve watched him play. We know that Belt is one of the streakiest hitters in the major leagues: Does THAT sound familiar?

In 2015, he didn’t hit his first home run until May 15, six weeks into the season. In the two weeks following, he proceeded to hit seven. Belt managed only three through June and July combined, then hit seven again in the month of August, two of those in the same game. He finished with only one in September.

It wouldn’t be so difficult to evaluate him if he spread his 18 home runs equally, one every nine games. If he hit .284 in every month, we would know exactly what Belt’s true value was. But every year, we go through the same cycle:

“What’s wrong with Belt? Are his injuries still bothering him? You know concussions are persistent little things right? Wait, he’s back baby! Damn, Belt for the All-Star Game? Nope, there’s ol’ slumpy again. Why does he always look so sad? Should we trade him to Miami for…wait who’s the Marlins first baseman again? What the hell is a Justin Bour? Yeah okay, sure. Why not. Wait there he is again! Two home runs to right-center at AT&T against a tough lefty, impressive! Can’t believe I ever doubted you Belty. Aaaand he’s gone again. Wonder what Brett Pill is up to these days…”

Every. Damn. Season.

****

BELT AS BELT

It’s increasingly clear to us at this point what type of player Brandon Belt is becoming. He’s a streaky, high-power guy who hits to all fields, strikes out a good amount, plays a mean first base, and will occasionally slump his shoulders. And that’s fine. Because he’s good enough to start, and he fits in perfectly with the rest of the Giants lineup.

Belt doesn’t need to hit like Joey Votto; the Giants already have Buster Posey. Belt doesn’t need to hit like Freddie Freeman; the Giants already have Hunter Pence. With Brandon Crawford’s continued ascent, as well as the dramatic emergence of Joe Panik and Matt Duffy, all Belt really has to do is remain healthy and hit as well as he can.

Even if Belt never blossoms into the next great Giants slugger, even if Belt repeats his 2015 season ad infinitum, during which he was a well above-average baseballer, he’s making the team better by simply showing up.

Perhaps it’s time we leave Brandon Belt alone. He’s doing just fine.

****

 You can follow me on Twitter @theabsolute19

Brandon Phillips was a great baserunner this past season. He stole 23 bases and was only caught stealing three times. It wasn’t an all-time great season in terms of stolen bases or baserunning runs overall, and his baserunning is overshadowed by the baserunning greatness of teammate Billy Hamilton, but we can all agree that Phillips put together a very nice season on the basepaths.

Now let’s make things interesting. In contrast to his great 2015, Brandon Phillips was very bad at stealing bases the last few years. In 2013 and 2014 he combined for a grand total of seven stolen bases and six times caught stealing (Phillips in fact had negative net stolen bases in 2014, being caught stealing three times and stealing just two bases), being worth negative runs on the basepaths both years. We now have a rare situation on our hands, where a player was a prolific base-stealer after doing nothing the year before.

Let’s quantify Phillips’ improvement to find some historical comparisons. Here’s the complete list of players that increased their stolen-base total by at least 20 a year after having negative net stolen bases (stolen bases -t imes caught stealing):

I know it can be difficult to read through that entire list, so let me summarize it for you: Before Brandon Phillips in 2015, no player had ever, following a season with negative net stolen bases, increased their stolen-base total by over 20 in the following season!

Pretty cool, right? It gets even better!

Here’s what makes Brandon Phillips’ 2015 season on the basepaths even more unique. Brandon Phillips was also very old this season, turning 34 in the middle of the summer. While it’s not unheard of for old guys to steal lots of bases (Lou Brock stole 118 at 35), it is a lot rarer than players in their primes stealing lots of bases. What is very rare is for old guys to suddenly make a leap in their stolen-base totals.

Let’s go back to the numbers again to find some historical comparisons. Here is the complete list of players who had a 20-stolen-base increase at Brandon Phillips’ age or older since baseball became integrated:

Only five other players since integration have had a 20-stolen-base jump at Brandon Phillips’ age or older. And these aren’t any random players — with Brock, Henderson, Wills, and Campaneris on the list, you have the 1st, 2nd, 14th, and 20th career leaders in stolen bases. The 5th is Jose Canseco, which just confirms what we already knew: Jose Canseco is weird. Canseco’s performance late in his career was also famously PED-boosted to defy normal aging curves, but I decided to just present the stats to you and you could make your own judgment on which performances you consider legitimate.

Even compared to the four all-time great base-thieves and Canseco, Phillips’ 2015 season is still unique. Since integration, Brandon Phillips is the only player his age to ever have an increase of 21 in stolen bases while matching his success rate!

If you had predicted before the season that Brandon Phillips would steal less than 23 bases, no one would have doubted you. After all, 18,845 players have played major-league baseball before and not a single one had accomplished what Brandon Phillips needed to do.

However, as the saying goes, baseball is played on the field and not on a computer. Against all odds there was old Brandon Phillips, chugging along on the basepaths and making his mark in history while doing it.

Notes:

(1) I used a cutoff of 200 at-bats in each consecutive season for players to qualify for the stolen-base-increase list. This was because I wanted the increases in stolen bases to be due to the player’s actions, and not just more playing time. A season where a rookie is called up and steals two bases in five games, and then steals 50 bases in a full season the next year is obviously against the spirit of seeing which players increased their stolen bases the most. I generously made the cutoff to qualify very low to include as many players as possible and so I couldn’t be accused of cherrypicking an at-bat limit to help Brandon Phillips stand out.

(2) A lot of players in the 1890s and 1900s qualified for the 20+ stolen-base increase at 34 years old or later, but since the game was so different back then I decided to just compare Phillips against players from the modern era.

(3) Dave Roberts came close to making the second cutoff, but was just a bit younger than Brandon Phillips.

Oftentimes, preconceived notions inhibit our understanding of the game of baseball. From archaic methods of player evaluation to cultural expectations of players of varying ethnicity, each observer’s individual paradigm dramatically alters his or her view of the game.  Case in point, what common ground could Salvador Perez and Kevin Pillar possibly share beyond their profession? Perez, who recently inked a new contract extension with the Kansas City Royals, stands at a booming 6’3’’ and 240 lbs. Pillar measures in at a more svelte – for professional athletes, at least – 6’0’’ and 205 lbs. Perez signed with the Royals in 2006, at the age of 16, as an international free agent out of tumultuous Venezuela before Pillar had even graduated from Chaminade College Prep, a private Catholic school in San Fernando Valley. Pillar finally signed his first professional contract after being drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 32^nd round of the 2011 amateur draft, less than a month before Perez debuted in the Majors despite being two years Pillar’s younger. Examined from a cultural and personality standpoint, Perez and Pillar seem polar inverses of one another.

Herein lies the beauty of baseball, and sports in general – citizens from all walks of life can come together, abandon their differences, and enjoy a common passion. From first pitch to the final out, no one differentiates between the hulking, affable Venezuelan catcher and the agile, analytical outfielder. Indeed if you only considered their projected on-field contributions, you may discover them indistinguishable.

Projections courtesy of FanGraphs’ Depth Charts, a combination of ZiPS and Steamer, provide us our best estimate of a player’s “true talent” level. No, projections are not infallible, but for this exercise they convey more than enough. Perez and Pillar share striking similarities in their statistical profiles. Solid defense up the middle, meager walk rates complemented by above-average strikeout rates; even the “old school” stats and classic triple-slash lines bear remarkable resemblance. The summary stats further these parallels; both players project around 3 fWAR for the upcoming season, while only one point of wOBA separates them. The only appreciable area of separation resides in base-running, where Pillar’s stolen bases give his BsR a four-run edge over Perez’. Otherwise, Pillar and Perez mirror each other with regard to their contributions on the diamond – the only facet we should judge players by. Perhaps more compelling, their overall approach. The below table lists each players’ plate discipline statistics from the 2015 season, as found on FanGraphs.

Both player profiles match what we should have expected given their walk and strikeout rates above: free swingers, particularly at pitches outside the zone, with an above-average ability to make contact. (Statistically speaking, among qualified batters Perez and Pillar both rank in the top quartile in Swing%, the 96^th percentile in O-Swing%, and top half in Contact%). Nonetheless, the proximity of their plate-discipline statistics encapsulates how comparably Perez and Pillar approach an at-bat.

Having not revealed the identity of the two stat lines* illustrates one of the charms of the game. No matter the background, personality, religion, whatever you may have, we convene to cherish a game we love. With an abundance of animosity arising over “playing the game the right way”, cultural lines oftentimes artificially divide us. We can choose to continue making these superficial discrepancies, or we can focus on what ultimately matters most, the product on the field and the joy it brings to our lives.

*For the curious (and spoilers for those who prefer the anonymity):

Player A – Salvador Perez, Player B – Kevin Pillar

Howie Kendrick is not the model of league-average consistency he seems like at first blush.  Kendrick is basically washed up.  Last year he posted numbers that would appear consistent with his performance since 2011:  BB% in the mid 5’s, K% in the mid-to-high teens, BABIP over .340, ISO hanging in at .114, and 2.1 WAR.  The plate-discipline numbers look stable, but the ISO and BABIP don’t.

The ISO was propped up by a 14.1% HR/FB that he is not going to repeat.  Last year he managed only a .114 ISO despite an elite FB distance of 305 feet, which was 14th-best in the majors.  His FB rate was the main culprit.  It has steadily declined since he arrived in the majors in 2007, bottoming out last year at 17%.  And he’s not going to have elite FB distance in 2016, and is unlikely to be anywhere close to his 2015 number.  He began his career in the low to mid 270s, peaked at 285 at age 28, and had been steadily receding back to the 270s until last year’s unlikely spike at age 32.  In all likelihood the 2015 number was driven by good fortune in a very small sample of fly balls.  Expect that number to be back in the low to mid 270s in his age-33 season.  If he hits the same number of fly balls in 2016 as he did in 2015, but his HR/FB% is cut roughly in half, he will hit 4-5 home runs.  Moreover, his 2015 hard-hit rate (29%) was in the bottom half for the first time in years, and his pull rate (27%) was a career low and good for third-lowest in the majors for all batters with at least 400 PA.  All of this points to an ISO below .100.

His BABIP won’t crater.  He doesn’t pop up and keeps the ball on the ground.  But his BABIP isn’t going to stay over .340 forever, and I would take the under in 2016.  Last year’s homers will be this year’s fly ball outs.  Overall, he’s not hitting the ball as hard.  Nor is he getting any faster.  And, because he can no longer pull the ball — particularly balls hit in the air — he should be getting easier to shift against.  Steamer’s projection of .324 seems about right.

Altogether, he’s looking at a .290-ish wOBA, bottom of the pile for regular second basemen.  Add in his projected league-average baserunning and defense, and he’s worth about 1 WAR.  Steamer has him at 2 WAR (based on a projected .316 wOBA); Zips projects 1.9 WAR (.317 wOBA); and the fans project 2.7 WAR (.322 wOBA).  These figures are double to triple what he is likely to produce.  Note, however, that the Dodgers are paying Kendrick $20 million for 2016 and 2017.  Assuming $8 million per WAR, the Dodgers are valuing him at only 1.25 WAR per season.  To no one’s surprise, it seems Friedman and company have this one right.  Also, Kendrick does have a career wOBA platoon split of .325 vs. righties and .340 vs. lefties.  One way to squeeze additional value from Kendrick (and keep him healthy) at this stage of his career might be a semi-platoon with Utley, who himself sports a career platoon split and projects better against righties than Kendrick.

The Premise: Byung-ho Park will be a very good, and potentially great, first baseman/DH as soon as this season.

The Format: A typical line of discourse between a Park believer — such as myself — and a Park-skeptic.

The First Argument: Park comes from a league with little track record of successful MLB transplants — after all, if Eric Thames can be a star, how good can the league be?

The Rebuttal: It is true that the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) has sent very few players to the major leagues. However, consider these caveats before rendering judgement. Unlike in Japan, in which baseball has ruled supreme for decades, the sport has only really taken off in Korea in the last 20 years, spurred largely by the success of Chan-ho Park in Korea and then in the majors. Now, however, the country is baseball-crazy: their national team is among the best in the world and the KBO is by far the most popular professional sports league in Korea. This dramatic rise in interest has led to a correspondingly dramatic rise in baseball infrastructure as more talent is discovered and developed from an early age. The early success of Hyun-jin Ryu and Jung-ho Kang in the United States speaks to the ability of the Korean infrastructure to develop its top-tier talents. Korean national teams regularly beat Americans and others on the international stage. The notion that Korea is not on the same level as a baseball-playing nation as Japan, Cuba, the Dominican Republic et al. is a farce.

The Second Argument: Park strikes out too much to be an effective major-league player.

The Rebuttal:  There are two responses to this, one league-oriented and one player-oriented. Implicit in this argument is the notion that the KBO is sufficiently worse than the MLB that all numbers should be significantly adjusted to account for better pitchers in the MLB. While the average KBO pitcher is undeniably worse than the average MLB pitcher, it is worth noting that Cuban League pitching is also decidedly below-average (see this piece by BA’s very talented international correspondent Ben Badler), and Cuban hitters are being snatched up like airline tickets after a decimal point error.

Second, a look at Park’s past seasons reveals an interesting shift in approach. Park’s K% in 2012 and 2013 was 19.8% and 17.2%, respectively, and his slugging percentages were .561 and .602. In 2014, his slugging percentage jumped to .686, but his K% also climbed to 24.8%. Since strikeout rate is a stat which normalizes fairly quickly — 60 PAs, according to FanGraphs — and the overall KBO strikeout rate actually declined from 2013 to 2014 (from 17.3 percent to 16.7 percent), we have to assume that Park changed something in his approach.* My conclusion, given what we know about power hitters striking out more in general, is that Park decided to trade contact for power, much like Mike Trout did before the 2014 season. This is indicative both of Park’s recognition of his strengths as a player, which speaks to his baseball intelligence and ability to learn, and also to his adaptiveness at the plate. If he is striking out too much, I am confident that he can reorient his approach and still be a highly valuable player.

The Caveats: There is, of course, no guarantee that Park will succeed in Minnesota. MLB competition is significantly better than any other league anywhere and there will be a learning curve for Park as he learns to hit MLB pitchers. The steeper hurdle in my mind, however, is culture: American culture is very different from the Korean culture with which he is comfortable. Kang Jung-ho, thanks to no small helping of self-confidence, a good team environment, and a penchant for the dramatic, has thrived in Pittsburgh, but there is no guarantee that Park will adjust as successfully or as quickly.

The Conclusion: These caveats aside, drafting (or signing) Byung-ho Park is a risk worth taking. He will be cheap and the upside is enormous. Acquire Park with confidence; there is a good chance that in the not-so-distant future, both you and the Twins will be the proud owners of one of the best power hitters, and best bargains, in baseball.**

*KBO stats pulled from baseball-reference.com
**Read Dan Farnsworth’s recently published Twins prospect list for further analysis of Park