The Homer Numbers of a Hypothetically-Healthy Giancarlo Stanton
Giancarlo Stanton has missed significant playing time since his MLB debut in 2010 and has never played more than 150 games of a 162-game season (145 and 123 games being his next two highest totals). In spite of his injury-shortened seasons, Stanton has still been among the league home-run leaders in 2011, 2012, and 2014 (his 150, 123, and 145-game seasons, respectively).
Season | Games | PA | HR | HR MLB Rank | Injury Report |
2010 | 100 | 396 | 22 | T-55 | —— |
2011 | 150 | 601 | 34 | 9 | Hamstring issues limited time |
2012 | 123 | 501 | 37 | 7 | 15-day DL: Arthroscopic knee surgery |
2013 | 116 | 504 | 24 | T-31 | 15-day DL: Strained right hamstring |
2014* | 145 | 638 | 37 | 2 | Season-ending facial fracture |
2015 | 74 | 318 | 27 | T-25 | 15-day DL: Season-ending hamate (hand) fracture |
2016 | 119 | 470 | 27 | 48 | 15-day DL: Strained left groin |
Career-wise, Stanton has amassed a total of 208 home runs, good enough for 16th-most of any player through their age-26 season and among the likes of Miguel Cabrera and Jose Canseco.
Rank | Player | HR |
1 | Alex Rodriguez | 298 |
2 | Jimmie Foxx | 266 |
3 | Eddie Matthews | 253 |
4 | Albert Pujols | 250 |
5 | Mickey Mantle | 249 |
6 | Mel Ott | 242 |
7 | Frank Robinson | 241 |
8 | Ken Griffey, Jr. | 238 |
9 | Orlando Cepeda | 222 |
10 | Andruw Jones | 221 |
11 | Hank Aaron | 219 |
12 | Juan Gonzalez | 214 |
13 | Johnny Bench | 212 |
14 | Miguel Cabrera | 209 |
14 | Jose Canseco | 209 |
16 | Giancarlo Stanton | 208 |
Given Stanton’s injury-plagued career, his career home-run numbers are a lower bound on what he may have accomplished had he played full, injury-free seasons following his debut. To quantify how Stanton’s injuries have suppressed Stanton’s career power numbers thus far, I extrapolated the home-run totals of Stanton’s injury-shortened seasons into full-season hypothetical home-run totals (hHR) using the formula below:
hHR = FLOOR(HR/G * 162)
The formula simply assumes that Stanton maintains his HR/G rate through a whole 162-game season and then conservatively rounds down. We can now compare home-run totals between the real Giancarlo Stanton and our hypothetical Giancarlo Stanton. I excluded his 2010 debut from the extrapolation.
Season | Games | HR | HR MLB Rank | hGames | hHR | hHR MLB Rank |
2010 | 100 | 22 | T-55 | 100 | 22 | T-55 |
2011 | 150 | 34 | 9 | 162 | 36 | 8 |
2012 | 123 | 37 | 7 | 162 | 48 | 1 |
2013 | 116 | 24 | T-31 | 162 | 33 | T-9 |
2014 | 145 | 37 | 2 | 162 | 41 | 1 |
2015 | 74 | 27 | T-25 | 162 | 59 | 1 |
2016 | 119 | 27 | 48 | 162 | 36 | T-16 |
The real Stanton never led the MLB in home runs, but our hypothetical Stanton climbs into the MLB lead in three of his hypothetical seasons (2012, 2014, and 2015).
Career-wise, our hypothetical Stanton would have hit 275 total home runs. This hypothetical Stanton adds 67 home runs to his real total, jumping from 16th to second place on the Age-26 leaderboard, only 23 home runs behind the far-away leader, Alex Rodriguez.
Rank | Player | HR |
1 | Alex Rodriguez | 298 |
2 | Giancarlo Stanton (hypothetical) | 275 |
3 | Jimmie Foxx | 266 |
4 | Eddie Matthews | 253 |
5 | Albert Pujols | 250 |
6 | Mickey Mantle | 249 |
7 | Mel Ott | 242 |
8 | Frank Robinson | 241 |
9 | Ken Griffey, Jr. | 238 |
10 | Orlando Cepeda | 222 |
11 | Andruw Jones | 221 |
12 | Hank Aaron | 219 |
13 | Juan Gonzalez | 214 |
14 | Johnny Bench | 212 |
15 | Miguel Cabrera | 209 |
16 | Jose Canseco | 209 |
17 | Giancarlo Stanton (real) | 208 |
Of note, using the same formula to calculate Stanton’s career strikeout totals predicts a whopping 1271 strikeouts for our hypothetical Stanton. His 977 strikeout “real” total through age 26 (second-highest) balloons and surpasses Justin Upton’s age-26-leading 1026 for a clear command of first place.
In reality, Stanton is a three-time All-Star, a Silver Slugger (2014), and a Home Run Derby champion (2016), and he historically ranks among the best in home-run totals for his age, all while facing injury issues in all of his first six full big-league seasons. Our hypothetically-healthy Giancarlo Stanton greatly improves his career numbers and garners himself a few MLB home-run crowns, giving a glimpse into how much larger his career numbers could be today had his first six full seasons been injury-free. As Stanton’s career progresses, it will be interesting to see where his home-run totals end up, and, unfortunately, how much greater they could have been.
Credit to Baseball-Reference for all publicly available data.