Evaluating 2012 Projections
Hello loyal readers. It’s time for the annual evaluation of last year’s player projections. Last year saw Gore, Snapp, and Highly’s Aggpro forecasts win among hitter projections (http://www.fangraphs.com/community/comparing-2011-hitter-forecasts/) and Baseball Dope win among pitchers http://www.fangraphs.com/community/comparing-2011-pitcher-forecasts/ . In general, projections computed using averages or weighted averages tended to perform best among hitters, while for pitchers, structural models computed using “deep” statistics (k/9, hr/fb%, etc.) did better.
In 2012, there were 12 projections submitted for hitters and 12 for pitchers (11 submitted projections for both). The evaluation only considers players where every projection system has a projection.