Archive for February, 2012

Comparing 2011 Hitter Forecasts

This article is an update to the article I wrote last year on Fangraphs.

This year, I’m going to look at the forecasting performance of 12 different baseball player forecasting systems. I will look at two main bases of comparison: Root Mean Squared Error both with and without bias. Bias is important to consider because it is easily removed from a forecast and it can mask an otherwise good forecasting approach. For example, Fangraphs Fan projections are often quite biased, but are very good at predicting numbers when this bias is removed.

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